Report Number 15 September 1987 FEWS Country Report MALI Africa Bureau U.S. Agency for International Development I-'. O, Summary Map F Ni oro Hombor­ -K ta '.. ...t Keniba " Sa • KoutRainfall/ Through July 31: Bougouni u "- - o ala <R0% of 1951-80 averae * <80% of 1951--30 averae .* <00% of 1951-80 average Harvest prospects poor Vegetation '-onditions below historic (1981-66) minimum for three consecutive ten day periods Famine Early Warning System Country Report MALI Harvest Prospects Vary Regionally Prepared for the Africa Bureau of the U.S. Agency for International Development Prepared by Price, Williams & Associates, Inc. September 1987 Contents Page 1 Summar,, 2 Vegetation and Rainfall 5 Agriculture and Livestock 6 Nutrition 7 Grasshoppers List of Figures Page Inside Cover Figure 1 Summary Map 3 Figure 2 Recent Trend of Vegetation Conditions 4 Figure 3 Sea3onal Trends of Vegetation Conditions 8 Appendix I Administrative Units: Regions and Ccrcles SUMMARY While most crop producing regions in Mali give promise for a normal to good harvest, Mopti Region has very poor prospects. Satellite imageryl through September 11-20 suggests that vegetation continued to thrive throughout crop producing regions, with some exceptions. In Niono Cercle in Segou Region and the Cercles of Tenenkou, Mopti, Douentza, and Youvarou in Mopti Region, imagery indicates areas of -',egetativz vigor below the historic (1981-86) minimum (see Summary Map). In Mopti and Segou Regions, late and sporadic rainfall forced farmers in some areas to sow crops iate into the agricultural season, increasing the probability of poor yields2 . Rainfall through early October, while unlikely, would provide enough soil moisture for late sown crops to mature, but even then, yields are likely to be low. Vegetation conditions in Bandiagara Cercle (Mopti Region) have improved little from levels attained two months ago. Throughout Sikasso, Kayes, and Koulikoro Regions, imagery from September 11-20 indicates that vegetation is above the historic average. Nationa'ly, at least an average harvest is likely, provicIed that rains continue through late September. Indicators * In all markets where price data is available, grains were less expensive in Jily of 1987 than July of 1986, suggesting that current supplies are adequate and that harvest expectations are probably high. o Cver 100 families from Goundam and Niafunke Cercles (Tombouctou Region) were present in Niono Cercle (Segou Region) ini search of food, but this was the only report of unusual migration in the country. Issues * After reviewing food security assessments, the Systejcre d'Alerte Precoce (SAP) withdrew previous recommenda­ tions for food distribution to N'Gorkou (Niafunke I The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is derived from NOAA AVHRR GAC data, which is a ten day average. The photosynthetic capacity, or vegetative vigor displayed by these images is generally believed to be indicative of the condition of vegetation on the ground, and, at least inferentially, of the growing conditions for crops and pastures. These relationships are, however, only indirect and still the subject of continuing research. 2 Late sown crops are generally low yieldinr, because: 1) the initial flush of nitrogen that is released with the firt rains is subsequently leached once the soil is saturated with rain water; 2) there is increased damage from insects which have multiplied on earlier sown crops; and 3) the probability of adequate rainfall for good crop development decreases as the season moves into mid-October. Cercle, Tombouctou Region) and Balle Arrondissements (Nara Cercle, Koulikoro Region), but continues to recommend food distribution to Sah Arrondissement (Youvarou Cercle, Mopti Region). VEGETATION AND Satellite imagery indicates that vegetative vigor RAINFALL improved, relative to the 1981-86 historic average, during the three ten day periods from August 11-20 to September 1-10, and declinea Fiightly during September 11-20 throughout most of Mrtli below 16°N 35' (see Figure 1). In Bafoulabe, Diema, and Kita Cercles (Kayes Region), vegetative vigor, which was average or below average August 11-20, was above the historic maximum by September 1-10, and only slightly below the maximum September 11-20 (see Figure 2). The same is true for most areas in Koulikoro Region -- exceptions being eastern Nara Cercle and a small area in southern Kati Cercle, where vegetation conditions were average. Although vegetative vigor throughout Segou Region rarely exceeded the historical maximum during the four decadal periods between August 11 and September 20, vegetation conditions improved in relation to the historic average in all Cercles, except Niono. Areas where vegetative vigor has remained at the 1981-86 historic minimum for four consecutive decades are now confined to Gao Region, Tombouctou Region above 160N 35', eastern Gourma-Rharous Cercle, and the border areas between both Tenenkou and Mopti Cercles (Mopti Region) and between Tenenkou and Niono Cercles (see Figure 1 and reference map -- Appendix 1). Harvest prospects in these areas are probably extremely poor. In Sikasso Region, seasonal trends suggest that the potential for crop development is good. Vegetative vigor has increased steadily since the beginning of the agricultural year (see seasonal trends of Bougouni and Yorosso Cercle in Figure 3)3. As of September 11-20, vegetation conditions in all Cercles in Sikasso Region were above average, with Sikasso, Bougouni, Kadiolo, Kolondieba, and Yanfolila Cercles at, or above, the historical maximum. In contrast to 5ikasso Region, seasonal trends of vegetative vigor in Mopti Region suggest that crops have been stressed. In Djenne Cercle, imagery indicates that vegetation conditions did not improve from June 11-20 to July 11-20. In Bandiagara, Douentza, and Mopti Cercles, vegetation conditions 3 The sharp decline between the second and third decades in July is probably the result of heavy cloud cover, and, therefore, would not reflect a decline in vegetative vigor. 2 Figure 2: MALI Recent Trend of M Better than Worse than Vegetation Conditions average average Comparisons to Historical Averages El Same as ! Clouds average August 10-21 August.. ..21-31 ... ..... .~~ .... :. :-"....-- .-. .-X ......... .. ... ...... j ­ = . -Jr. b~~ ~ ~ .. ...;"":... ~ ............ : ":ii!;:i~ii:::-: ' .'l .. i:-...".....: ::.- ..... :Ir[ : . .""I . " .............. .'.. .. ."... 1. ._-' • .. .: S e p. t... ".:e ' m" : b ::".e r.1.1 0.Septembe ..-- . ......: ,-."•:':.i':""....,:: i::'-::...... ...... ....,_9 ,-.., '....... : ............. ............ ... :iii!: ! :: '­ . .. .. .- .. .. - i , NP ;. ..- , . & : . - : : :: :: ::: : : : ...... -: -: ..-L. E. ..' . ! .... aw! ....~ ~ ~ ~ •.~ . ,,~ " ' .: , ul .. .... I ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ...... .: .......-..:: r.. :::::!: :...-.:j , .* ........ ............... -. .. ... .... " :::::::::::::::::: .':1. "......... ...... ...... ...............- ............. ::::..,~ ~ . ~-:,: ........... : .. ... :: - • ..: :....>~. .... ~ ~ ~ ~ .......-....... ...=..=..===.=====.......... ': .......... .... ..... L .. :!:il ii: :: iii !!i~iii~iii. ::: ... .............. ........ .... ......... .... ........... H .I*E,**. *:: :: .'!i: ' "':"'.....ii: .;.:i'i !:... ..... ... ... .... , ::: :: ::: : : :: : : : :::: : :: : .. ........ .............. ......... !iiiii~ii.......... ".-. i!! ;. .. ...:;. .....; .... .. .. ..... September . ...... 1-10 September 11-20 STasonal Trends of Vegetation Conditions MOPT I Key Max imum Average Miniwm________ May Maximum, Minimum, and Average are July Sept Nov derived from the 1981-86 historic record _ record _ _ _ _ ANSONGO DINEMA May July Sept Nov May July Sept Nov fMay July Sept Nov Z YOROSS0 May July Sept Nov BOUGOUNI KOUL IKORO-- - May July Sept Nov May I Julyi, tSept *II NoviI May July Sept Nov Source: FEWS/PWA. September 1987 remained the same or declined from June 11-20 to July 21­ 30. Although there has been a steady increase in vegetative vigor across the Region since the end of July, the potential for normal yields is low because crops were sown late and long dry periods in July impeded crop development. Cumulative rainfall through July 31 was below the 1951­ 1980 average at all reporting stations (see Table 1), although it was similar to 1986 levels at the Nioro, Koutiala, Sikasso, Bamako-Senou, and San stations. Reported rainfall at the stations at Gao, Tombouctou, Hombori, Bougouni, Kayes, and Mopti was less than 60% of the thirty year average. Rainfall was sporadic in many areas. July 1-20 was generally quite dry, while rains during the following ten days were normal. The Mopti and Bougouni rain stations recorded extremely low levels of rainfall for approximately thirty days (from June 21 - July 20). Table 1: Cumulative Rainfall Through July 31 (mm) % of 1951-80 1951-80 Station 1987 Average Average Gao 35 102 34 Tombouctou 40 80 50 Hombori 94 184 51 Bougouni 277 537 52 Kayes 145 270 54 Mopti 127 229 55 Nioro 139 214 65 Segou 208 303 69 Kita 287 408 70 Bamako-Scnou 316 420 75 Koutiala 334 439 76 Sikasso 451 534 84 Kenieba 376 436 86 San 319 328 97 Source: Government of Mali National Meteorology Office A'RICULTURE AND USAID personnel who travelled to Kayes, Sikasso, Segou LIVESTOCK and Mopti Regions during late July and the first two weeks of August, observed wide variations in crop development throughout Mali and generally supported conclusions drawn from satellite imagery. Around Diema, Lakamane and Oussoubidiania (Kayes Region) and in Mopti Cercle (Mopti Region) planting