Report Number 15 September 1987 FEWS Country Report

Africa Bureau U.S. Agency for International Development I-'.

O, Summary

Map F

Ni oro Hombor­

-K ta '...... t

Keniba " Sa

• KoutRainfall/ Through July 31: u "- - o ala

.* <00% of 1951-80 average

Harvest prospects poor Vegetation '-onditions below historic (1981-66) minimum for three consecutive ten day periods Famine Early Warning System Country Report MALI Harvest Prospects Vary Regionally

Prepared for the Africa Bureau of the U.S. Agency for International Development

Prepared by Price, Williams & Associates, Inc. September 1987

Contents Page 1 Summar,, 2 Vegetation and Rainfall 5 Agriculture and Livestock 6 Nutrition 7 Grasshoppers List of Figures

Page

Inside Cover Figure 1 Summary Map 3 Figure 2 Recent Trend of Vegetation Conditions 4 Figure 3 Sea3onal Trends of Vegetation Conditions 8 Appendix I Administrative Units: Regions and Ccrcles SUMMARY While most crop producing regions in Mali give promise for a normal to good harvest, Region has very poor prospects. Satellite imageryl through September 11-20 suggests that vegetation continued to thrive throughout crop producing regions, with some exceptions. In Cercle in Segou Region and the Cercles of Tenenkou, Mopti, , and Youvarou in , imagery indicates areas of -',egetativz vigor below the historic (1981-86) minimum (see Summary Map). In Mopti and Segou Regions, late and sporadic rainfall forced farmers in some areas to sow crops iate into the agricultural season, increasing the probability of poor yields2 . Rainfall through early October, while unlikely, would provide enough soil moisture for late sown crops to mature, but even then, yields are likely to be low. Vegetation conditions in Cercle (Mopti Region) have improved little from levels attained two months ago. Throughout , Kayes, and Regions, imagery from September 11-20 indicates that vegetation is above the historic average. Nationa'ly, at least an average harvest is likely, provicIed that rains continue through late September.

Indicators * In all markets where price data is available, grains were less expensive in Jily of 1987 than July of 1986, suggesting that current supplies are adequate and that harvest expectations are probably high.

o Cver 100 families from Goundam and Niafunke Cercles () were present in (Segou Region) ini search of food, but this was the only report of unusual migration in the country.

Issues * After reviewing food security assessments, the Systejcre d'Alerte Precoce (SAP) withdrew previous recommenda­ tions for food distribution to N'Gorkou (Niafunke

I The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) is derived from NOAA AVHRR GAC data, which is a ten day average. The photosynthetic capacity, or vegetative vigor displayed by these images is generally believed to be indicative of the condition of vegetation on the ground, and, at least inferentially, of the growing conditions for crops and pastures. These relationships are, however, only indirect and still the subject of continuing research.

2 Late sown crops are generally low yieldinr, because: 1) the initial flush of nitrogen that is released with the firt rains is subsequently leached once the soil is saturated with rain water; 2) there is increased damage from insects which have multiplied on earlier sown crops; and 3) the probability of adequate rainfall for good crop development decreases as the season moves into mid-October. Cercle, Tombouctou Region) and Balle Arrondissements (, ), but continues to recommend food distribution to Sah Arrondissement (Youvarou Cercle, Mopti Region).

VEGETATION AND Satellite imagery indicates that vegetative vigor RAINFALL improved, relative to the 1981-86 historic average, during the three ten day periods from August 11-20 to September 1-10, and declinea Fiightly during September 11-20 throughout most of Mrtli below 16°N 35' (see Figure 1). In Bafoulabe, Diema, and Kita Cercles (), vegetative vigor, which was average or below average August 11-20, was above the historic maximum by September 1-10, and only slightly below the maximum September 11-20 (see Figure 2). The same is true for most areas in Koulikoro Region -- exceptions being eastern Nara Cercle and a small area in southern , where vegetation conditions were average. Although vegetative vigor throughout Segou Region rarely exceeded the historical maximum during the four decadal periods between August 11 and September 20, vegetation conditions improved in relation to the historic average in all Cercles, except Niono.

Areas where vegetative vigor has remained at the 1981-86 historic minimum for four consecutive decades are now confined to , Tombouctou Region above 160N 35', eastern Gourma-Rharous Cercle, and the border areas between both Tenenkou and Mopti Cercles (Mopti Region) and between Tenenkou and Niono Cercles (see Figure 1 and reference map -- Appendix 1). Harvest prospects in these areas are probably extremely poor.

In , seasonal trends suggest that the potential for crop development is good. Vegetative vigor has increased steadily since the beginning of the agricultural year (see seasonal trends of Bougouni and Cercle in Figure 3)3. As of September 11-20, vegetation conditions in all Cercles in Sikasso Region were above average, with Sikasso, Bougouni, , , and Cercles at, or above, the historical maximum. In contrast to 5ikasso Region, seasonal trends of vegetative vigor in Mopti Region suggest that crops have been stressed. In Djenne Cercle, imagery indicates that vegetation conditions did not improve from June 11-20 to July 11-20. In Bandiagara, Douentza, and Mopti Cercles, vegetation conditions

3 The sharp decline between the second and third decades in July is probably the result of heavy cloud cover, and, therefore, would not reflect a decline in vegetative vigor.

2 Figure 2: MALI Recent Trend of M Better than Worse than Vegetation Conditions average average Comparisons to Historical Averages El Same as ! Clouds average August 10-21 August.. ..21-31 ...... ~~ .... :. :-"....-- .-. . .-X ...... j ­ = . . -Jr.

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;...... :;...... ; ...... September ...... 1-10 September 11-20 STasonal Trends of Vegetation Conditions

MOPT I Key

Max imum Average Miniwm______May Maximum, Minimum, and Average are July Sept Nov derived from the 1981-86 historic record _ record _ _ _ _ ANSONGO

DINEMA

May July Sept Nov May July Sept Nov

fMay July Sept Nov

Z YOROSS0 May July Sept Nov BOUGOUNI KOUL IKORO-- -

May July Sept Nov

May I Julyi, tSept *II NoviI May July Sept Nov Source: FEWS/PWA. September 1987 remained the same or declined from June 11-20 to July 21­ 30. Although there has been a steady increase in vegetative vigor across the Region since the end of July, the potential for normal yields is low because crops were sown late and long dry periods in July impeded crop development.

Cumulative rainfall through July 31 was below the 1951­ 1980 average at all reporting stations (see Table 1), although it was similar to 1986 levels at the Nioro, , Sikasso, -, and San stations. Reported rainfall at the stations at Gao, Tombouctou, , Bougouni, Kayes, and Mopti was less than 60% of the thirty year average.

Rainfall was sporadic in many areas. July 1-20 was generally quite dry, while rains during the following ten days were normal. The Mopti and Bougouni rain stations recorded extremely low levels of rainfall for approximately thirty days (from June 21 - July 20).

Table 1: Cumulative Rainfall Through July 31 (mm)

% of 1951-80 1951-80 Station 1987 Average Average

Gao 35 102 34 Tombouctou 40 80 50 Hombori 94 184 51 Bougouni 277 537 52 Kayes 145 270 54 Mopti 127 229 55 Nioro 139 214 65 Segou 208 303 69 Kita 287 408 70 Bamako-Scnou 316 420 75 Koutiala 334 439 76 Sikasso 451 534 84 Kenieba 376 436 86 San 319 328 97

Source: Government of Mali National Meteorology Office A'RICULTURE AND USAID personnel who travelled to Kayes, Sikasso, Segou LIVESTOCK and Mopti Regions during late July and the first two weeks of August, observed wide variations in crop development throughout Mali and generally supported conclusions drawn from satellite imagery. Around Diema, Lakamane and Oussoubidiania (Kayes Region) and in (Mopti Region) planting was expected to continue

5 through mid-August because dry periods forced farmers to replant. In Scgou Region, planting was also delayed due to late rains, but farmers began planting at the end of July with the arrival of good rainfall. Adequate yields from these crops are dependent upon timely, abundant rain through early October, which is unlikely. In Sikasso Region, yields arc expected to be below last year's exceptional levels, although crop development was generally considered good. Exceptions to this are found in parts of Bougouni and Arrondissements, where low and sporadic rainfall has limited growth (satellite imagery since mid-August indicates that vegetation conditions in these areas has improved).

Of all the grain producing regions, the USAID observers considered Mopti as most vulnerable to a poor 1987 harvest; a situation confirmed by satellite imagery. In Ceru:le, millet and sorghum showed signs of drought stress. Secondary crops common to the Cercle (fonio, perints, and ouanzou) had either dried up, or were not planted at all. Koro Cercic had received better rainfall than Bankass, but a dry period from July 20 through the first week in August left crops in a similar state. Some farmers in Douentza and Bandiagara Cerclcs waited for favorable rains before sowing, and did not plant. Fields that were sown in these areas have received inadequate rainfall. USAID representatives noted that millet in Mopti Central and looked more stressed than in any other visited area. The agri­ cultural c:impaign in Mopti Region (population approximately 1.4 million) is highly dependent upon abundant, timely raii, through early-October. If these rains do not occur, crop prospects are grim.

The July Systeme d'Alerte Precoce (SAP) Bulletin reported that pasturage and water points are generally sufficient throughout Mai. Pasturage in Kidal and Menaka Cercles. howevcr, was poor because of inadequate rainfall

NUTRITION Assessments of food security weic carried out in July in N'Gorkou (Niafunke Cercle, Tombouctou Region), in t.n villages in Sah Arrondissement (Youvarou Cercle, Mopti Region), and in Ballk (Nara Cerele, Koulikoro Region). SAP reviewed these studies to determine if food distribution was still warranted.

(i N'Gorkou, SAP found 85% of the families interviewed had the means to purchase grain on the market; 4% relied upon outside aissistance; and 2% reported having no food resources. While only about 20% of the families intcrviewcd had reliable sources of income (e.g.,

6 livestock sales, grain sales or stable employment), another 67% had at least two sources of less reliable income (e.g., mat weaving or day labor). Based upon these findings, and anthropometric measurcments which revealed a "normal" level of malnutrition 4, SAP withdrew its recommendation for food distribution to populations in N'Gorkcu.

A study carried out in the ten villages in Sah Arrondis­ sement revealed that food security there is still weak. Three consecutive poor harvests have left cereal stocks low and, to procure cereals, people have been selling small livestock (e.g., goats and sheep), reducing herd size. SAP continues to recommend food distribution to this area.

In Balle Arrondissement, SAP followed up a June survey, finding that many men returned to the Arrondissement for the current agricultural season with enough money and grain to keep their families fed until the upcoming harvest. SAP, therefore, no longer recommends food aid to this area.

GRASSHOPPERS Grasshoppers have not been nearly as destructive this year as they were last year. In fact, a major problem this year is where and how to store approximately 560 fifty-gallon drums of unused pesticide. Areas where grasshoppers have emerged have been effectively treated by the grasshopper control campaign. In mid-August the grasshopper situation in the Balle-Nara-Dilly zone intensified rapidly. In response to reported insect densities of 20 per square meter and rising, approximately 5,300 hectares were treated in an area south of Balle. The treatments resulted in a 75% mortality rate within 24 hours after spraying. Another 20-30,000 hectares in this area have been identified for treatment.

4 Of the 440 children surveyed, 7% were malnourished (between 70 and 79% of the median of weight for height) and 3.2% were severely malnourished (less than 70% of the median).

7 Appendix 1: MALl

Administrative Units: Regions & Cercies

24 N [ ALGERIA

2! N

4 18 N Tombouct ou

MAURITANIA 1Gao 3 16 - 5

- 7 K01iIkoro pl

N a 4 7 2IE SENEGAL

1? N 3 BURK INA FASO 2 S Aso

4 GUI NEE L 10 NORY COAST

12 W 10 W W 41 W P. W 0 2 E 4 E

REGIONS 4nd CERCLES Other Int' I KAYES SIKASSO MOPTI GAO Boundar ies 1. Kayes 1. Sikaso I. Mopti 1. Gao ___e_ 2. Baloulabe 2. Bougounl 2. Bandlagara 2. Anongo 3, Diema 3. Ilda I 1o 3. Bankase 3. Bourem Region Boundary 4. Kenieba 4. Kolondieba 4. DJenne 4. Kidal 5. Kite 5. Koutiala 6. Douentza 6. Boundary 8. Noro 6. Yanlollla 6. Koro 7 Ya II -no 7. Yorosso 7. Tanenkou 7. Youvarou NatLionaL Capital KOULIKORO .9EGOU * Regional Capital 1. Koulikoru 1. Seou TOUBOUCTOU 2 2. Baraoueli A. Tombouctou 3. Diolla 3. Bla 2 Dire 4. 4. Wacina 3. Goundam 200 km 5. KatI 5 Niono 4 Gourma-Rhnrous 6. 6. San 5. Ntai unke , Nara 7

3FLWS/PWA 1/87 This is the fifteenth in a series of monthly reports on Mali issued by the Famine Early Warning System (FEWS). It is designed to provide decisionmakers with current information and analysis on existing and potential nutrition emergency situations. Each Situation identified is described in terms of geographical extent and the number of people involved, or at-risk, and tile proximate causes insofar as they have been discerned. Use of the term "at-risk" to identify vulnerable populations is problematic since no generally agreed upon definition exists. Yet, it i-, ecessary to identify or "target" populations in-need or "at-risk" in order o determine appropriate forms and levels of intervention. Thus for the present, until a better usage can be found, FEWS reports will employ the term "at-risk" to mean...

... those persons lacking sufficient food, or resources to acquire sufficient food, to avert a nutritional crisis (i.e., a progressive deterioration in their health or nutritional condition below the status quo), and who, as a result, require specific intervention to avoid a life-threatening situation. Perhaps of most importance to decisionmakers, the FEWS effort highlights the process underlying the deteriorat­ ing situation, hopefully with enough specificity and forewarning to permit alternative intervention strategies to be examined and implemented. Food assistance strategies are key to famine avoidance. However, other types of intervention can be of major importance both in the short-term and in the long run, including medical, transport, storage, economic development policy change, etc. Wherc possible, estimates of food needs are included in the FEWS reports. It is important to understand, however, that no direct relation exists between numbers of persons at-risk and the quantity of food assistance needed. This is because famines are the culmination of slow-onset disaster processes which can be complex in the extreme.

The food needs of individual populations at-risk depend upon when in the disaster process identification is made and the extent of the cumulative impact on the individuals concerned. Further, the amount of food assist-nce required, whether from internal or external sources, depends upon a host of considerations. Thus the estimates of food needs presented periodically in FEWS reports should not be interpreted to mean food aid needs, e.g., as tinder PL480 or other donor programs. FEW .,epends on a variety of US Government agencies, private voluntary organizations (PVO's), international relief agencies, foreign press and host government reports as sources of information used in the country report: In particular, a debt of gratitude is owed to many individuals within various offices of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) who routinely provide valuable information: the offices of Food For Peace and Voluntary Assistance (FFP/FVA), and the Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (OFDA). The contributions of the Systeme d'Alerte Precoce/Mali and the National Drought Committee (CNAVS) to this report are substantial and highly appreciated. Additional useful information is also provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administartion (NOAA), the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA), AGRHYMET/- Niamey, the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (UNFAO) Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS), the World Food Programme, and other U.N. agencies.

FEWS is operated by AID's Office of Technical Resources in the Bureau for Africa (AFR/TR) in cooperation with numerous U.S. Government and other organizations. The FEWS Country Reports are working documents of AFR/TR should and not be construed as official pronouncements of the US. Agency for International Development.