BOOKS & ARTS An issue of equity Gary Yohe The world’s most vulnerable must be prioritized in adapting to climate change. FAIRNESS IN ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE Edited by W. Neil Adger, Jouni Paavola, Saleemul Huq and M. J. Mace MIT Press: 2006. 319 pp. £16.95

It is well recognized that vulnerability to the world where the richest developed countries productivity, and water scarcity would aff ect impacts of climate change is unequal: the like the United States and the fasting growing an additional 1.6 billion people in Asia and planet’s poorest face the widest assortment emerging economies like China and India Africa. Th ese are risks that defy meaningful of climate-related stresses and have the emit the largest proportion of greenhouse economic quantifi cation, and they fall in fewest tools to cope with them. In Asia, gases and developing nations suff er the places where most of the world’s poor reside. for example, 2.5 billion people live in rural largest proportion of negative impacts. Th e Two bookend chapters were craft ed by areas on incomes of less than one dollar Convention asserts that this is, quite simply, the editors to tie these themes together with per day. Th ey typically do not have access not fair, and so countries that have signed the more than the usual signpost descriptions to sanitation, are vulnerable to disease and, Convention have committed themselves to of who said what. Th e intervening chapters coupled with illiteracy, poverty undermines remedying the situation. ask “So what?”, and the somewhat academic their ability to pursue sustainable practices. Several fundamental themes run discourse of the early chapters is brought to Th e disaster-prone and ecologically through the entire collection, which is life in case studies from Bangladesh, Tanzania, fragile nature of their environment essentially a rigorous scholarly assessment Botswana, Namibia, Hungary and Vari. makes it unproductive, further increasing of the role of equity in understanding Th e editors themselves then bravely their exposure to climate risks. Similar adaptation. Th e fi rst relates vulnerability tackle the more diffi cult question of “What demographics across Africa result in extreme to the social and environmental processes do we do about it?”. Th ey argue that avoiding exposure to the various manifestations of that limit the ability of systems to cope with dangerous climate change is the minimum climate change that intensifi es the pain of a climate-related stresses. Vulnerability is moral responsibility of the planet’s most vicious cycle of land degradation, polluted thereby appropriately and integrally related privileged decision-makers, but they also river catchments, desertifi cation and to the wider political economy within which highlight that this is not simply a developed– diminished ecosystem services. it is located. Th e second theme argues developing country problem. Some of the In an eff ort to explore what we know that uncertainty (born of either imprecise world’s most vulnerable people live in places about the plight of the world’s most understanding of climate change and socio- like Darfur, but others are citizens of the vulnerable, Fairness in Adaptation to Climate political-economic systems or confl icting wealthiest societies the planet has ever seen, Change brings together an extraordinary norms of justice) is never a reason not to in places like New Orleans. Th ey argue collection of scholarly essays that focus on act. Some participants in the climate policy correctly that allowing dangerous impacts the role of equity and fairness in supporting debate have used uncertainty to do just that; would exacerbate inequity and other social the capacity of human systems to adapt to but this book provides more evidence that problems everywhere, but they conclude climate change. It is a succinct presentation they are, quite simply, wrong in doing so. optimistically that making progress towards of the obvious — that access to resources A third holds that vulnerability must be reducing inequity across the globe and is an essential prerequisite for adapting to measured using multiple “numeraires” or within individual communities could be any external stress — but it is also a careful metrics. Here the essays are on the frontier good “climate policy”. discussion of the more subtle — that the of the academic discourse on impacts. To support their optimism, they off er capacity to adapt and equity are related Although many impacts can be expressed a productive approach to adaptation, through intricate webs of social, cultural, purely in economic terms, in other cases, arguing persuasively for making the political and economic connections. Th ese diff erent yardsticks must be recognized. For most vulnerable (wherever they live) are prerequisites for eff ective adaptation example, the Fourth Assessment Report the top priority in designing adaptation that the world’s poor are, for all intents and of the Intergovenmental Panel on Climate programs. All themes identifi ed in the book purposes, currently denied. Change makes no attempt to convert some can be found in the UNFCCC. All that Because context can vary signifi cantly of its major conclusions into economic remains is to weave them into meaningful from place to place, society to society and measures. An additional 1 °C of warming implementation — the incredibly diffi cult time to time, however, it is extremely diffi cult would increase the number of people facing task of asking the Parties of the UNFCCC to tell an inclusive story about how equity and water scarcity by up to 1.2 billion additional to keep to their word. fairness should enter development plans and, people in Asia and 250 million in Africa perhaps more importantly, negotiations under and would cause as much as a 5% decline Gary Yohe is Woodhouse/Sysco Professor the United Nations Framework Convention in wheat and maize productivity in India. of Economics at , on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Equity issues Another degree of warming would cause Connecticut, USA. are not foreign to the UNFCCC. We live in a China to experience a 12% decline in rice e-mail: [email protected] nature reports climate change | VOL 5 | OCTOBER 2007 | www.nature.com/reports/climatechange 71 BOOKS & ARTS Powerful position

Chris Goodall At its root, climate change is not a scientifi c or technical problem, but an issue of the use of power. SURVIVING THE CENTURY: FACING CLIMATE CHAOS AND OTHER GLOBAL CHALLENGES Edited by Herbert Girardet Earthscan: 2007. 208 pp. £17.99

A decade ago many involved in climate environmental or economic disasters. It is nevertheless worth pointing out that issues hoped it was a problem that the Large companies, the theory goes, are the world’s fi rst eco-city, in Dongtan, East world would fi nd relatively easy to threatened by actions to reduce emissions. Asia still has an ecological footprint larger conquer; the causes would be identifi ed Th e oil and gas industry will suff er if than can be sustained, and is but one of a and mechanisms devised to reduce the world moves to renewable energy. huge number of new urban centres rising carbon emissions. With proper direction Monsanto’s profi ts will fall if we switch across China. from a mixture of careful subsidies for from industrial agriculture back to low- Of the eight excellent essays in this low-carbon technologies and increased input farming methods. Th e Brazilian book, I think the one that should most pollution taxes, the free market would government will lose elections if it resists attract our attention is Paul Bunyan’s work eventually rein in our burgeoning attempts to turn more of the rainforest on the Amazon rainforest. Even those greenhouse-gas emissions. But it hasn’t into soy farms and cattle ranches. Freely who know little about global warming are turned out this way. Hopes of a strong operating markets, the book says, do becoming dimly aware of the role of this and coordinated international approach not solve diffi cult problems. Markets enormous area on the world’s climate. have all but disappeared as most countries concentrate power, rather than dispersing International treaties, including Kyoto, will fail to meet even the limited demands it, with the result that the success of global have failed to recognize the importance for emissions reductions imposed by the capitalism over the last twenty years has of tropical forests both as carbon sinks Kyoto Protocol. produced an elite of immense power and as stabilizers of our weather systems. Herbert Girardet’s new book and wealth. Aggressive action on climate Th e maintenance of the forest depends Surviving the Century: Facing Climate change threatens this power, and is being on high rainfall, which largely comes Chaos and Other Global Challenges resisted at every turn. Th e core thesis of from the evapotranspiration of rainfall brings together an eclectic mix of the the book, highlighted by Frances Moore elsewhere in the forest. Deforestation may initial optimists, from campaigning US Lappé’s analysis of the intertwining of cause diminished rainfall and eventual journalist Ross Gelbspan to the German democracy with free market economics, is disruption of the Hadley cell circulation, renewable energy pioneer Hermann that many of the world’s most intractable changing the world’s climate system Scheer. Containing a restrained but problems are only solvable if we reduce in potentially catastrophic ways. And deeply felt passion, this book combines the power of the global elite, whose deforestation is, to reprise the core theme wisdom with an intense idealism about infl uence is holding back any attempt to of this book, carried out “by just a handful how mankind can make the radical restructure the world’s economic system. of Brazilians” eager to use the land for soy changes necessary to deal with the issues But, rather than being merely a and cattle. Th is elite, and other similar that threaten our very existence. diatribe against the institutions of groups across the world, hold the world’s At root, the authors argue, climate corrupted global capitalism, this is a fate in their hands. change is not a technical or scientifi c far more nuanced and hopeful work. But the reader cannot take much problem. Th e main impediment to tackling Most of the discussion is given over to comfort from this book: the chances of its global warming is that many of the proposals for substantial actions to remedy sensible recommendations being adopted powerful institutions of the world, whether the world’s bias towards using fossil by those in authority are low. Progress at it be the World Trade Organization, BP fuels. Michael Braungart looks at how weaning the world off its reliance on fossil or the investment banks that control the industrial processes can be re-engineered fuels will continue to be blocked by those world’s allocation of capital are resistant with fairness and ecological awareness. who benefi t from the persistent under- to radically changing the way we operate He points out that the most productive pricing of carbon. the world economy. Th e poor, whose share and effi cient economies, judged in the of world income is certainly not growing, conventional sense, are oft en the most Chris Goodall is the author of How to Live a are unable to successfully demand that wasteful and destructive. Herbert Girardet Low-Carbon Life: Th e Individual’s Guide to policies be developed to protect them extols the virtues of the fi rst city to be built Stopping Climate Change. from climate change or from other with environmental issues fi rmly in mind. e-mail: [email protected]

72 nature reports climate change | VOL 5 | OCTOBER 2007 | www.nature.com/reports/climatechange BOOKS & ARTS A challenge to Kyoto

Partha Dasgupta Standard cost–benefi t analysis may not apply to the economics of climate change. COOL IT: THE SKEPTICAL ENVIRONMENTALIST’S GUIDE TO GLOBAL WARMING by Bjorn Lomborg Knopf/Cyan-Marshall Cavendish: 2007. 272 pp./256 pp. $21/£19.99

Bjorn Lomborg’s Th e Skeptical Environmentalist created a sensation six years ago. Th e author off ered fi gures to dismiss claims that the ecological- resource base in many parts of the world is deteriorating, and argued that the costs of reducing ecological losses are usually higher than the benefi ts. Never mind that several of the world’s foremost environmental scientists expressed more than mere scepticism towards Lomborg’s grasp of their science: prominent publications such as Th e Economist promoted the book vigorously and wrote sermons on how scientists should practise their craft . People learning of my own work in developing ecological economics would ask, “And have you read Lomborg?” — implying, “Why have you thrown away so much of your working life?” Th ings have changed over the past year. Former US vice-president ’s fi lm An Inconvenient Truth and the Should we be spending more on protecting ourselves against the adverse effects of global warming? Fourth Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have given rise to great public concern, and many now climate change. Here is a sample: did you Lomborg reports that Kyoto’s annual regard global warming to be the central say Kyoto would result in fewer fl oods? cost would be $180 billion in foregone problem facing humanity. Lomborg’s Maybe, but it would reduce fl ood damage output, whereas the smart strategies he latest book, Cool It, is a response to that by only US$45 million a year, whereas outlines, which would include an annual change in public perception. He doesn’t building appropriate infrastructure could expenditure of $25 billion on research question the science, which says that lower it by $60 billion a year. Didn’t you and development in clean technologies, rising concentrations of greenhouse gases also say that global warming would cause would cost a mere $52 billion a year. By in Earth’s atmosphere are aff ecting our additional deaths from heatwaves? Yes, his reckoning, those strategies would limit climate system; he questions whether we but what about the greater numbers who the rise in concentration of carbon dioxide should do much about it. If Th e Skeptical would not die of cold? Are you worried to 560 parts per million (p.p.m.) and the Environmentalist was the relentless about deepening poverty in the tropics accompanying temperature rise to 4.7 °C. prosecuting counsel, Cool It is the hard- without Kyoto? You shouldn’t be, because Smart strategies would cost far less than headed but caring economist. Kyoto would reduce the number of Kyoto, deliver higher economic growth Th e book is a series of exercises in undernourished people in 2080 by only worldwide, and markedly reduce poverty. cost–benefi t analysis, interspersed with 2 million, whereas the United Nations From the vantage point of Kyoto, there is a quotes on climate change from the writings proposes in its Millennium Development free lunch to be had wherever you look. of famous people who should know better Goals to reduce the number by 229 You might say that the Kyoto Protocol than to speak in hyperboles. Lomborg million by 2015. What about more severe was misconceived and that the world produces fi gures to show that it would hurricanes? Well, Kyoto would reduce the should develop a bolder programme of be better to replace the Kyoto Protocol increased annual damage by only 0.6%, action, with much higher carbon taxes, with strategies that encourage economic whereas taking better precautions could international cooperation to reduce growth and blunt the harmful eff ects of lower it by 250%. And so on. hunger, disease and habitat destruction, nature reports climate change | VOL 5 | OCTOBER 2007 | www.nature.com/reports/climatechange 73 BOOKS & ARTS and development of clean technologies parameters based on observations from substantial amounts on insurance, even and ways to sequester carbon. But in the recent past are unreliable for making more than the 1–2% of world output that Lomborg’s view, doing more of a bad deal forecasts about the state of the world at has been advocated. If the uncertainties are is rarely smart, so he doesn’t countenance CO2 concentrations of 560 p.p.m. or higher. not small, standard cost–benefi t analysis going beyond Kyoto. All this is spelt out in Moreover, the nonlinearities mean that as applied to the economics of climate such a breezy, engaging style, it’s hard not doing more of a bad deal (Kyoto) may well change becomes incoherent, even if those to fi nd the arguments entirely reasonable. be very good. uncertainties are judged to be thin-tailed Unfortunately, Lomborg’s thesis is built Th ese truths seem to escape Lomborg. (gaussian, for example); this is because on a deep misconception of Earth’s system His cost–benefi t analysis involves only the analysis would say that no matter and of economics when applied to that point estimates of variables (interpreted how much humanity chooses to invest in system. Th e concentration of CO2 in the variously as ‘most likely’, ‘expected’, protecting Earth from passing through atmosphere is now 380 p.p.m., a fi gure that and so forth), implying that he believes those later tipping points, we should invest ice cores in Antarctica have revealed to be we shouldn’t buy insurance against still more. in excess of the maximum reached during potentially enormous losses resulting Economics helps us to realize what the past 600,000 years. If there is one truth from climate change. His concerns over we are able to say about matters that will about Earth we all should know, it’s that the the prevalence of malaria, undernutrition reveal themselves only in the distant system is driven by interlocking, nonlinear and HIV in today’s world show that he is future. Simulta neously, it helps us to processes running at diff erent speeds. Th e an egalitarian. Th ere is, then, an internal realize the limits of what we are able transition to Lomborg’s recommended contradiction in his value system, because to say. Th at, too, is worth knowing, for concentration of 560 p.p.m. would involve if you are averse to inequality you should limits on what we are able to say are not a crossing an unknown number of tipping also be averse to uncertainty. reason for inaction. Lomborg’s seemingly points (or separatrices) in the global Th e integrated assessment models of persuasive economic calculations are a climate system. We have no data on the Earth’s system on which Lomborg builds case of muddled concreteness. consequences if Earth were to cross those his case are arbitrarily bounded on either tipping points. Th ey could be good, or they side of his point estimates. It can be shown Partha Dasgupta is professor of economics could be disastrous. Even if we did have that if those bounds are removed (as at the University of Cambridge and fellow data, they would probably be of little value they ought to be), even a small amount of St John’s College, Cambridge. He is because nature’s processes are irreversible. of uncertainty — when allied to only a author of Discounting Climate Change, One implication of the Earth system’s deep moderate aversion to uncertainty — would forthcoming in Review of Environmental non linearities is that estimates of climatic imply that humanity should spend Economics and Policy.

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74 12172-02GIMOlaunchHPH.indd 1 nature reports climate change | VOL 5 | OCTOBER 2007 | www.nature.com/reports/climatechange24/7/06 9:47:12 am