Multimodal Urban Growth Model ATLANTA’S TRANSPORTATION PLAN TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Introduction ....................................................................................................................... 4 Background ............................................................................................................... 4 Travelsheds ...................................................................................................................... 5 Travelshed 1 – Buckhead West ................................................................................. 9 Travelshed 2 – Buckhead East ................................................................................ 10 Travelshed 3 – Northeast Atlanta ............................................................................ 11 Travelshed 4 – Northwest Atlanta ........................................................................... 11 Travelshed 5 – Southwest Atlanta ........................................................................... 12 Travelshed 6 – Central Business District ................................................................. 13 Travelshed 7 – City East ......................................................................................... 14 Travelshed 8 – Atlanta-DeKalb ................................................................................ 15 Travelshed 9 - Midtown ........................................................................................... 16 Travelshed 10 – Southeast Atlanta ......................................................................... 17 Travelshed 11 - Airport ............................................................................................ 18 Capacity Analysis ............................................................................................................ 19 Comparison of Model Volumes and GDOT AADT Data .......................................... 19 Inventory and Inventory Based Capacity Estimation ............................................... 21 Segments with Demand Exceeding Capacity .......................................................... 21 Determine Desired Growth Within Each Travelshed ...................................................... 29 Population and Employment Allocation ................................................................... 29 Determine Non-Driving Trip Demand .............................................................................. 37 Calibrate Projects and Programs to Achieve Required Mode Split ................................. 39 TRIA Methodology ................................................................................................... 39 Baseline Information Utilized ................................................................................... 40 Appendix A. Comparison of Average Weekday Traffic and Model Volumes .................. 52 Appendix B. Inventory-based Capacities of the Road Segments ................................... 71 Appendix C. Road Segments Where Demand is Expected to Exceed Capacity in 2040 91 Appendix D. Trip Generation Regression Rates ........................................................... 100 Appendix E. ARC Activity Based Model (CT-RAMP) Output Summary ........................ 106 Appendix F. ARC Activity Based Model (CT-RAMP) Output Summary & TRIA Application Tables .................................................................................................................... 112 TABLE OF FIGURES Page Figure 1 Map of Atlanta Travelsheds.......................................................................... 6 Figure 2 Functional Classification of Roads Within Travelsheds ................................ 7 Figure 3 2015 AADT Map based on GDOT count information ................................... 8 Figure 4 locations where counts deviate model volume by more than 20% ............. 20 MUG Model Methodology | ii ATLANTA’S TRANSPORTATION PLAN Figure 5 Capacity Estimation Criteria for Two-Way Roads ...................................... 22 Figure 6 Capacity Estimation Criteria for One-Way Roads ...................................... 22 Figure 7 ARC Model 2040 -Travelshed 1 ................................................................. 23 Figure 8 ARC Model 2040 -Travelshed 2 ................................................................. 24 Figure 9 ARC Model 2040 -Travelshed 3 ................................................................. 24 Figure 10 ARC Model 2040 -Travelshed 4 ................................................................. 25 Figure 11 ARC Model 2040 -Travelshed 5 ................................................................. 25 Figure 12 ARC Model 2040 -Travelshed 6 ................................................................. 26 Figure 13 ARC Model 2040 -Travelshed 7 ................................................................. 26 Figure 14 ARC Model 2040 -Travelshed 8 ................................................................. 27 Figure 15 ARC Model 2040 -Travelshed 9 ................................................................. 27 Figure 16 ARC Model 2040 -Travelshed 10 ............................................................... 28 Figure 17 ARC Model 2040 -Travelshed 11 ............................................................... 28 Figure 18 Household Density Assignment ................................................................. 30 Figure 19 Atlanta City Design Employment Allocation by Economic Zone ................ 32 Figure 20 Employment Density Assignment ............................................................... 33 Figure 21 CT-RAMP Trip Data (2040) Summary by Travelshed ................................ 35 Figure 22 Trip Generation Summary by Travelshed .................................................. 36 Figure 23 Non-Vehicular Trip Demand Calculation .................................................... 38 Figure 24 Model and Target SOV Mode Split ............................................................. 41 Figure 25 Percent Application of Transit Reduction Factors ...................................... 43 Figure 26 Impacts of Planned/Proposed/Funded Bicycle Facilities on Commute Mode Share .......................................................................................................... 45 Figure 27 TRIA Impacts on SOV Mode Splits ............................................................ 45 Figure 28 CBD Travelshed Trip Reduction Factors Summary ................................... 46 Figure 29 Midtown Travelshed Trip Reduction Factors Summary ............................. 46 Figure 30 Buckhead East Travelshed Trip Reduction Factors Summary ................... 47 Figure 31 City East Travelshed Trip Reduction Factors Summary ............................ 47 Figure 32 SW Atlanta Travelshed Trip Reduction Factors Summary ......................... 48 Figure 33 NW Atlanta Travelshed Trip Reduction Factors Summary ......................... 48 Figure 34 NE Atlanta Travelshed Trip Reduction Factors Summary .......................... 49 Figure 35 Buckhead West Travelshed Trip Reduction Factors Summary .................. 49 Figure 36 SE Atlanta Travelshed Trip Reduction Factors Summary .......................... 50 Figure 37 Atlanta-DeKalb Travelshed Trip Reduction Factors Summary ................... 50 Figure 38 Airport Travelshed Trip Reduction Factors Summary ................................ 51 MUG Model Methodology | iii ATLANTA’S TRANSPORTATION PLAN INTRODUCTION Atlanta’s Transportation Plan is the access strategy for Atlanta City Design. The Plan is divided into a concise final report and a series of detailed technical appendices. The final report summarizes Atlanta’s Transportation Plan in an easily digestible manner using infographics, maps, and images and is intended for the general public and elected officials. The technical memorandums are intended for planners, City staff, and implementation partners that require a higher level of detail. As part of Atlanta’s Transportation Plan, this technical appendix describes the detailed steps developed and applied to estimate how the City of Atlanta will help handle the expected growth within Atlanta’s Transportation Plan (ATP) planning horizon, with the underlying assumption that there will not be significant automobile capacity added to the network to accommodate this growth. This process is intended to predict alternative mobility infrastructure needs and travel demand management incentives on a constrained network without significant capacity additions. BACKGROUND The Multimodal Urban Growth (MUG) Model was developed to predict the new trips generated from the anticipated growth of the City to 1.3 million residents and 1.2 million jobs. Additionally, the MUG Model will estimate what percentage of newly generated trips will not be accommodated by existing network capacity, and assist in the evaluation of potential non- driving travel demand strategies to handle the excess trips. The MUG model has five basic steps, as described in detail in the sections below. The five steps are: 1. Define Travelsheds 2. Measure Available Car Capacity 3. Determine Desired Growth Within Each Travelshed 4. Determine Non-Driving Trip Demand 5. Calibrate Projects and Programs to Achieve Required Mode Split Detailed output tables and screen shots of the Cube model road networks used in the analysis for each individual travelshed are included in the Appendices. MUG Model Methodology | 4 ATLANTA’S TRANSPORTATION PLAN TRAVELSHEDS The first step in the