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Analysis of Salinity Intrusion in the Waccamaw River and the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway Near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, 1995–2002

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Analysis of Salinity Intrusion in the Waccamaw River and the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway Near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, 1995–2002 Prepared in cooperation with the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources Analysis of Salinity Intrusion in the Waccamaw River and the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, 1995–2002 Scientific Investigations Report 2007–5110 Cover. Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway at S.C. Highway 9 at Nixons Crossroad, South Carolina (station 02110777) Photograph by John W. Erbland, U.S. Geological Survey, Conway Field Office Analysis of Salinity Intrusion in the Waccamaw River and Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, 1995–2002 By Paul A. Conrads and Edwin A. Roehl, Jr. Prepared in cooperation with the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources Scientific Investigations Report 2007–5110 U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey U.S. Department of the Interior DIRK KEMPTHORNE, Secretary U.S. Geological Survey Mark D. Myers, Director U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia: 2007 For product and ordering information: World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov/pubprod Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS For more information on the USGS—the Federal source for science about the Earth, its natural and living resources, natural hazards, and the environment: World Wide Web: http://www.usgs.gov Telephone: 1-888-ASK-USGS Any use of trade, product, or firm names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government. Although this report is in the public domain, permission must be secured from the individual copyright owners to reproduce any copyrighted materials contained within this report. Suggested citation: Conrads, P.A., and Roehl, E.A., Jr., 2007, Analysis of salinity intrusion in the Waccamaw River and Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway near Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, 1995–2002: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2007–5110, 41 p., 2 apps. (available online at http://pubs.water.usgs.gov/sir2007-5110) iii Contents Abstract ...........................................................................................................................................................1 Introduction.....................................................................................................................................................1 Purpose and Scope ..............................................................................................................................3 Description of Study Area ...................................................................................................................3 Previous Studies ...................................................................................................................................6 Approach ................................................................................................................................................6 Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................7 Data-Collection Networks ............................................................................................................................7 Characterization of Streamflow, Water Level, and Specific Conductance .........................................8 Calculated Variables, Data Preparation, and Signal Processing .................................................8 Characterization of Streamflow .........................................................................................................8 Characterization of Water Level .......................................................................................................10 Characterization of Specific Conductance ....................................................................................13 Modeling Specific Conductance ...............................................................................................................14 Signal Decomposition, Correlation Analysis, and State-Space Reconstruction .....................15 Signal Decomposition ...............................................................................................................15 Correlation Analysis ..................................................................................................................16 State-Space Reconstruction ...................................................................................................16 Limitations of the Historical Data Sets ............................................................................................17 Artificial Neural Networks ................................................................................................................17 Statistical Measures of Prediction Accuracy ................................................................................19 Development of Specific-Conductance Models ...........................................................................19 North End Models ......................................................................................................................24 South End Models ......................................................................................................................25 Analysis of Estuary Dynamics Using Three-Dimensional Response Surfaces ........................28 Development of the Decision Support System .......................................................................................31 Architecture .........................................................................................................................................31 Historical Databases ..........................................................................................................................32 Model Simulation Control, Optimization Routine, Streaming Graphics, and Three-Dimensional Visualization Program ................................................................32 Application of the PRISM Decision Support System .............................................................................35 Constant Regulated Flow ...................................................................................................................36 Minimum Regulated Flow ..................................................................................................................36 Optimized Regulated Flow .................................................................................................................36 Summary........................................................................................................................................................39 References ....................................................................................................................................................40 Appendix 1. Variables used in the artificial neural network models ............................separate file Appendix 2. User’s Manual for the PRISM Decision Support System..........................separate file iv Figures 1–3. Maps showing: 1. Study area including the Pee Dee and Waccamaw River basins and Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway in South Carolina ........................................................2 2. The Yadkin-Pee Dee River basin in North and South Carolina ....................................4 3. Specific-conductance gages and surface-water intakes on the Waccamaw River and Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway in the Grand Strand of South Carolina .................................................................................................................5 4. Duration hydrographs for Pee Dee River near Rockingham, North Carolina, and Little Pee Dee River at Galivants Ferry, South Carolina..................................................9 5–7. Graphs showing: 5. Hourly streamflow for the Pee Dee, Lynches, Little Pee Dee, and Black Rivers and 7-day average flow for the Pee Dee River and hourly streamflow for the Lynches, Little Pee Dee, and Black Rivers for the period January 1, 1996 to December 31, 1997 .............................................................................................................11 6. Hourly water levels at four gaging stations on the Pee Dee and Waccamaw Rivers and the Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway for the periods October 1 to October 17, 1998, and January 15 to March 1, 1999 .....................................................12 7. Daily tidal range at Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway at South Carolina Highway 9 for the period July 1994 through June 1996 ...............................................13 8. Diagram showing conceptual model of the location of the freshwater-saltwater interface .......................................................................................................................................13 9–10. Graphs showing: 9. Daily specific conductance at Waccamaw River at Hagley Landing, South Carolina, and streamflow at Pee Dee River at Pee Dee, South Carolina, for the period October 1, 1995, to September 30, 2003 ......................................................14 10. Hourly gage heights at Atlantic Intracoastal Waterway at South Carolina Highway 9, filtered gage heights, and 1-day change in filtered gage heights for the 60-day period October 4 to December 4, 1998 .................................................16 11–12. Diagrams showing: 11. Multilayer perceptron artificial neural network architecture ....................................18 12. Artificial neural network model architecture for specific-conductance modeling at each gage .....................................................................................................19
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