Ventura River Watershed Design Storm Modeling Final Report
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Ventura River Watershed Design Storm Mo deling VENTURA RIVER WATERSHED DESIGN STORM MODELING FINAL REPORT Final February 2010 Hydrology Section Planning and Regulatory Division VCWPD Final Report – February 2010 i Ventura County Watershed Protection District Ventura River Watershed Design Storm Modeling Ventura County Watershed Protection District Hydrology Section Project 11033 District Director: Norma J. Camacho Deputy Director: Sergio Vargas Section Manager: Bruce Rindahl Author: Mark Bandurraga Reviewers: B. Rindahl, Z. Hosseinipour, Y. Su VCWPD Final Report – February 2010 Ventura River Watershed Design Storm Modeling EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This report documents the work done by the Ventura County Watershed Protection District (District) using the calibrated Ventura River HSPF Model (Tetra Tech 2009 Draft). The model was used to provide the design storm peaks for hydraulic modeling and floodplain mapping of the river and its tributaries. The approach involved identifying a storm that caused saturated conditions in the model and then applying 100-yr design storm balanced hyetographs for each rain gage used in the HSPF Model. Flood Frequency Analysis (FFA) results of stream data from gaged tributaries were used to calibrate the model in the modeling. Ungaged tributary HSPF results were verified by comparing the HSPF results to previous modeling study results. The HSPF model design storm peaks were calibrated by adjusting the factors (MFACTS in HSPF UCI – Users Control Input) applied to the rain data at the gaged tributary calibration points to match 100-year estimates developed from FFA results. These rainfall factors could then be applied to the ungaged tributaries. In some cases the flow tables (FTABLEs in HSPF) representing the stage-storage-discharge data used in stream channel routing were adjusted so that peaks varied in the downstream direction consistent with the conceptual model of the watershed. Developed watershed FTABLEs were adjusted so that the peaks matched the FFA results. The HSPF Model was calibrated to provide peaks that were within 10 percent or less as compared to the design peaks obtained from analyses of stream gage data by the District and the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR). The HSPF Model was then run with the appropriate rainfall distributions at 5-minute time steps to provide 100-year design storm peaks at the ungaged tributaries. The 100-year peaks were then converted to other return intervals of interest by using multipliers developed from flow-frequency analyses of long-term Ventura County stream gages. For upstream locations within a subarea, the HSPF Model results were analyzed using discharge-transfer techniques and the USGS regression equations to provide additional flow data for use in the hydraulic modeling. The results showed that the HSPF Models provided design peak estimates that could be calibrated to match stream gage frequency analysis results and provide design peaks on ungaged tributaries that generally agreed to within 20 percent or less with historic modeling results using various hydrology models. The model peaks from the two developed areas with stream gage data matched the peaks from frequency analysis after a factor of 0.70 was applied to the rain. FTABLE adjustments were then used for these areas after resetting the rainfall factor back to 1.0 so that the stream gage design peak could be matched without affecting the volume of runoff from the developed subareas. Other FTABLE adjustments were used to better match design peaks from undeveloped watersheds such as North Fork Matilija Creek and Coyote Creek downstream of Casitas Dam. VCWPD Final Report – February 2010 i Ventura River Watershed Design Storm Modeling This page intentionally left blank. VCWPD Final Report – February 2010 ii Ventura River Watershed Design Storm Modeling TABLE OF CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................................. i 1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................. 1 2. BASELINE VENTURA RIVER WATERSHED HSPF MODEL ............................. 3 2.1. Flow Frequency Analysis .............................................................................. 3 2.2. Design Storm Methodology........................................................................... 3 2.3. Balanced Storm Method for Developing Hyetographs .................................. 5 2.4. HSPF Calibration – Approach and Results ................................................... 8 2.4.1 Ventura River Mainstem Calibration .................................................... 13 2.4.2 San Antonio Creek Calibration ............................................................ 14 2.4.3 Canada Larga Calibration .................................................................... 14 2.4.4 North Fork Matilija Creek Calibration ................................................... 15 2.4.5 Fox Drain Calibration ........................................................................... 16 2.4.6 Happy Valley Drain Calibration ............................................................ 17 2.4.7 Coyote Creek Calibration ..................................................................... 18 2.5. Design Storm Model Calibration Results and Conclusions ......................... 19 2.6. Areal Reduction and FTABLE Calibration Effects ...................................... 22 2.7. San Antonio Tributary Calibration Results .................................................. 24 2.8. HSPF Model Areas Versus Historical Hydrology Study Areas .................... 24 2.8.1 East Ojai Drain .................................................................................... 25 2.9. Design Storm Models Used in Study .......................................................... 33 2.10. Peak Flow Bulking ................................................................................... 33 3. RATIOS FOR INTERMEDIATE DISCHARGE ESTIMATES .............................. 34 4. CONCLUSIONS ................................................................................................. 40 5. REFERENCES .................................................................................................. 41 6. APPENDIX A – HSPF MODEL FILES ............................................................... 42 VCWPD Final Report – February 2010 iii Ventura River Watershed Design Storm Modeling LIST OF TABLES Table 1 – HSPF and Stream Gage Annual Peak Comparison ............................. 4 Table 2 – 100-Yr Design Storm Flow Frequency Analysis Results ....................... 5 Table 3 – Rainfall Gage Data Used in the HSPF Design Modeling ...................... 7 Table 4 – HSPF Segments and Numbering ........................................................ 12 Table 5 – HSPF Design Storm Model Results for Ventura River Calibration Sites .................................................................................. 13 Table 6 – FTABLE Adjustment Results for Fox Cyn Drain ................................. 17 Table 7 – Original and Revised Reach 311 FTABLE Information ....................... 23 Table 8 – Summary of Revised FTABLEs in Design Storm Model ..................... 23 Table 9 – Original and Revised Baseline Mainstem Model Flows ...................... 24 Table 10 – Ventura River Mainstem HSPF Results Compared to Historical Studies ................................................................................ 27 Table 11 – Ventura River Tributary HSPF Results Compared to Historical Studies .......................................................... 28 Table 12 – Ventura County Design Storm Ratios Based on Flow Frequency Analysis Results ....................................................... 35 Table 13 – Ventura River Watershed Design Storm Peaks ................................. 36 LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 – Location Map ......................................................................................... 2 Figure 2 – Gage 165 (Stewart Canyon) Depth Versus Duration Data .................... 6 Figure 3 – Gage 165 Design Storm Hyetograph ..................................................... 6 Figure 4 – HEC-HMS Areal Reduction Curves for Design Storms .......................... 9 Figure 5 – Ventura River Watershed HSPF Model Rain Gages ............................. 9 Figure 6 – Ventura River Watershed HSPF Model Stream Gages ....................... 10 Figure 7 – HSPF Model Segmentation – FEMA Tributaries .................................. 11 Figure 8 – Fox Drain Probability Plot..................................................................... 16 Figure 9 – Happy Valley Probability Plot ............................................................... 18 Figure 10 Coyote Creek Hydrographs .................................................................. 18 Figure 11 – Ventura River Design Storm Hydrograph at Gage Location ................ 20 Figure 12 – San Antonio Creek Design Storm Hydrograph at Gage Location ........ 21 Figure 13 – Happy Valley Drain Design Storm Hydrograph at Gage Location ........ 21 Figure 14– East Ojai Drain Model Boundary Comparison ..................................... 26 VCWPD Final Report – February 2010 iv Ventura River Watershed Design Storm Modeling 1. INTRODUCTION This report provides design peak flows for floodplain mapping of the Ventura River Watershed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). The floodplain mapping project by FEMA’s consultant will update the floodplain shown on current