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Presentation Cover Title A DEEP DIVE INTO CHINA'S 14TH FIVE YEAR PLAN FOR SUSTAINABILITY An analysis on the Green Policies in China’s 14th Five Year Plan March 2021 1 Background 2 What’s ‘green’ in 14th Five Year Plan 3 The Green Reform 4 Emissions Trading System 5 Looking Forward 6 Contact Us CONTENTS BACKGROUND As an important contributor to adopting the Paris Agreement and an active participator in its implementation, China is resolutely committed to tackling climate change. The country has vowed to peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 (The “30.60” Goals). Top-down regulation development is expected in China to reach “30.60” goals, as regulatory forces still are the main fuels for sustainable investment markets in China. As fossil fuel accounts for 85% of energy consumption in China, to reach the “30.60” goals, renewable energy plays an essential role in the making. As a major player in global value chains, China is up for a huge challenge. Last year, Liu Youbin, spokesperson for the Ministry of Ecology and Environment said China has achieved this year’s carbon dioxide emission target ahead of the schedule. By the end of 2019, the country's carbon emission intensity had decreased by 48.1 per cent compared with the level in 2005, with its non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption reaching 15.3 per cent, Liu said in an interview. It is still a long road ahead. Sustainable regulations and trends are emerging. GC Insights is here to help you analysing and interpretating the latest changes and trends of sustainability-related regulations and compliance. We help you see clearer and provide strategic guidance and solutions for your "quality growth" and develop your sustainable capacities to meet the newly emerging challenges. WOODGROVE BANK 3 1 WHAT’S ‘GREEN’ IN 14TH FIVE YEAR PLAN GREEN INVESTMENT At the latest 14th FYP meetings, a scale of ¥3.65 trillion is assigned on a number of projects, and the ecological environmental protection project is one of them on the agendas this year. This year, the government is planning to further strengthen macro guidance and coordinate the industrial layout in focusing on energy conservation and environmental protection, new-generation information technology, biology, renewable energy and other fields. A document issued by The State Council on Feb 22, 2021, outlined key measures to meet the “30.60” goals, including the development of green and low-carbon production, consumption and circulation systems. China also plans to speed up green infrastructure upgrading, green and low- carbon technology development, and improvements in laws, regulations and policies. Ping An Securities estimated that the total investment required for China to promote the low-carbon to the zero- carbon path in the next three decades will range from 70 trillion to 140 trillion yuan, including renewable resource utilization, energy efficiency improvement, and consumption electrification, zero-carbon power generation technology, energy storage, hydrogen energy and digitalization, etc. Large-scale investment in green and low-carbon industries will be leveraged, and significant development in related fields are foreseeable. WOODGROVE BANK 4 2 WHAT’S ‘GREEN’ IN 14TH FIVE YEAR PLAN RENEWABLE ENERGY Projects on renewable energy lead by the nation are soaring in 14th FYP. There are plans to build more hydropower, clean energy bases and offshore wind power stations. The country is set to increase the share of non-fossil sources in the energy mix to around 20% in the next five years by multiple projects of renewable energy constructions, such as offshore wind farms and nuclear projects in coastal areas. Electrification with clean energy has also planned in yellow areas shown in the map below. ( map from Xinhuanet) Continuing transmission of electricity from the western to the eastern region will expand further for the next five years. According to Goldman Sachs, around US$16tn clean tech infrastructure investment opportunity is estimated by 2060. China’s power generation is expecting to be triple by 2060, driven mostly by solar, wind, nuclear and hydro generation. WOODGROVE BANK 5 3 WHAT’S ‘GREEN’ IN 14TH FIVE YEAR PLAN RENEWABLE ENERGY (CONTINUED) As predicted by Bloomberg, China’s solar and wind capacity are expected to surge in the coming years. The 14th FYP is aiming for more electrification in energy consumption to replace fossil fuel consumption and expanding capacity in clean energy such as solar and wind to support emission reduction on the supply side. According to Goldman Sachs, electrification through renewable power dominates the lower part of the cost curve and has potential to de-carbonize around half of Chinese CO2 emissions, with power generation tripling by 2060 – dominated by wind and solar, driving increased demand for base metals such as copper (+15%) and a complete overhaul of the country’s power networks. Clean Hydrogen is the second most important technology, potentially driving 20% of the de- carbonization, mostly in industry and heating. Furthermore, Carbon Capture is estimated to address 15% of China’s emissions, mostly in industrial processes. WOODGROVE BANK 6 4 THE GREEN REFORM The Green reform as The State Council outlined as followed: • By 2025, the industry, energy and transportation system will see a noticeable improvement, with the manufacturing, circulation and consumption system featuring green, low-carbon and circular development taking initial shape. • And as of 2035, the endogenous power for green development will be intensified, the scale of green industry will advance to a new level and the ecological environment will be fundamentally improved. • In terms of building a green manufacturing system, the circular set targets in many sectors, including industry, agriculture, services, environmental protection, industrial parks, and cluster and supply chains. • Also, work should be done to develop ecological circular agriculture, strengthen farmland protection and promote saving water in agriculture. • The circular called for efforts to develop green logistics, encourage reusing renewable resources, build a green trading system, promote consumption of green products and advocate a low- carbon lifestyle. • Accelerated efforts should be made to build a waste recycling system for renewable resources, such as waste paper, plastics, tires, metals and glass. • The green, low-carbon transformation also should be stepped up in China’s energy system. Work should be done to raise the utilisation ratio of renewable resources and develop wind power and photovoltaic power. Also, rural power grids should be upgraded, and construction and interconnection of natural gas infrastructure should be sped up. • The circular also called on efforts to develop green, low-carbon technologies and accelerate the application of sci-tech outcomes. • Fiscal funds and national budget investment should be used to support environmental infrastructure, green, environmental protection industries, efficient utilisation of energy, and resources recycling. Also, green financing, including loans, direct financing and insurance, should be developed. • The circular also said China will intensify international cooperation in sectors like energy saving and green energy. It will require more international exchanges in policy technology, green projects and talent training. WOODGROVE BANK 7 5 EMISSIONS TRADING SYSTEM A set of interim rules for industries are included in carbon emissions trading the market this year, the management in China came trading volume and activities into effect on Feb 1, 2021, of the carbon market are marking a key step in the expecting to increase establishment of a national significantly. emissions trading system The State Council issued a (ETS). A total of 2,225 circular on Feb 22, urging power firms across the efforts to build an economic country, assigned with system featuring green, low- carbon dioxide emission carbon and circular caps, can trade their development, and to emission quotas via the promote an overall green system whereby firms that transformation of the exceed their caps can economy and society. One purchase unused quotas of this year’s key focuses is from those with low to speed up the construction emissions. The historical of the national energy rights ETS Trading Volume by and the national carbon provinces is as below. 2020 emission trading system sees some slowdown in (ETS), improve the dual some regions, but the ETS control system of energy market is expecting to be consumption, and improve expanding as the country’s the coordinated and orderly top-down regulation agenda development of clean in promoting the ETS energy growth, consumption, market during 14th Five- and energy storage. Year Plan. According to Refinitiv, a non-compliance fine range from 20k to 30k yuan is coming to effect with the new rules. As more WOODGROVE BANK 8 6 LOOKING FORWARD As reported by Climate installations last year. As Action Tracker, China’s 14th reported by the Financial FYP implies a reduction in Times, among the more the carbon intensity of substantial changes from GDP by 18 per cent and the previous Five-Year Plan energy intensity of GDP was a pledge to “basically by 13.5 per cent in the eliminate” bad air pollution next five-year period is days by 2025, and a similar to the goals in the decision to scrap a single previous 13th FYP. Now GDP target for the five-year with Beijing abstaining from period, an indication that setting a five-year GDP priorities are shifting away target, China’s emissions from growth above all else growth over the period is and towards environmental even more uncertain. concerns, leaving more space for “quality growth”, Yet China remains hesitant as the National to force a rapid transition Development and Reform towards renewables. As Commission (NDRC) announced by the National explained. Corporates and Energy Administration investors are in need of (NEA), A goal for non- developing a new set of fossil fuels energy standards in regards to consumption was set at “quality growth” to evaluate 25 per cent by 2030, up the sustainable value of the from a 15 per cent goal for business and underlying 2020 — a relatively assets.
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