Tester Leads MT Senate Race, Flake up in AZ, Romney by 7
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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE November 4, 2012 INTERVIEWS: Tom Jensen 919-744-6312 IF YOU HAVE BASIC METHODOLOGICAL QUESTIONS, PLEASE E-MAIL [email protected], OR CONSULT THE FINAL PARAGRAPH OF THE PRESS RELEASE Tester leads MT Senate race, Flake up in AZ, Romney by 7 Raleigh, N.C. – PPP's final polls in Arizona and Montana find Mitt Romney leading by 7 points and two key Senate races leaning in opposite directions, with Democrat Jon Tester leading Republican challenger Denny Rehberg 48-46 in Montana and Republican Jeff Flake leading Democratic foe Richard Carmona 51-46 for the open seat in Arizona. Obama came close to winning Montana in 2008 and Arizona was thought of earlier this year as a place where he might be able to expand the map. But he's not popular in either state, sporting a 42/53 approval rating in Arizona and 44/53 one in Montana. We've released 4 Montana Senate polls since Labor Day and Tester has led by 2 points in every one of them. Voters are closely split on Tester with 47% of voters approving of him to 46% who disapprove, but that makes him far more popular than Rehberg who only has a 37% approval with 54% of voters unhappy with his performance. The only reason this race is even close is the GOP nature of the state. Tester's ahead 50/37 with independents. Just like in the Missouri Senate contest the Libertarian candidate is worth keeping an eye on here. Dan Cox is pulling 4% and the fact that his voters support Romney 56-11 suggests that he's pulling almost of them from Rehberg. Cox's support has already dropped from 7% three weeks ago, and Tester needs for it to not drop much further. Richard Carmona led our last Arizona Senate poll, in early October, 45-43. What's happened since then is pretty straight forward- the Republican base has unified around Jeff Flake. He's gone from pulling 70% of Republicans on that survey to now 88%. And although Carmona still leads by 5 points with independents, Flake's cut that down from a 15 point lead a month ago. “Our polling in the Montana Senate race has found a small but persistent lead for Jon Tester,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But the opportunity for Democrats in Arizona seems to be slipping away.” PPP surveyed 1,080 likely voters in Arizona and 836 in Montana on November 2nd and 3rd. The margin of error for Arizona is +/-3.0% and for Montana it’s +/-3.4%. This poll was not paid for or authorized by any campaign or political organization. PPP surveys are conducted through automated telephone interviews. Phone: 888 621-6988 Public Policy Polling 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Web: www.publicpolicypolling.com Raleigh, NC 27604 Email: [email protected] Arizona Survey Results Q1 The candidates for President are Democrat Q7 Would you describe yourself as very liberal, Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney. If somewhat liberal, moderate, somewhat the election was today, who would you vote conservative, or very conservative? for? Very liberal...................................................... 9% Barack Obama................................................ 46% Somewhat liberal ............................................ 16% Mitt Romney.................................................... 53% Moderate......................................................... 32% Undecided....................................................... 1% Somewhat conservative.................................. 26% Q2 The candidates for US Senate are Democrat Richard Carmona and Republican Jeff Flake. If Very conservative ........................................... 19% the election was today, who would you vote Q8 If you are a woman, press 1. If a man, press 2. for? Woman ........................................................... 52% Richard Carmona............................................ 46% Man................................................................. 48% 51% Jeff Flake ........................................................ Q9 If you are a Democrat, press 1. If a Republican, Undecided....................................................... 3% press 2. If you are an independent or identify with another party, press 3. Q3 Do you approve or disapprove of President Barack Obama’s job performance? Democrat ........................................................ 34% Approve .......................................................... 42% Republican...................................................... 41% Disapprove...................................................... 53% Independent/Other.......................................... 25% Not sure .......................................................... 5% Q10 If you are Hispanic, press 1. If white, press 2. If other, press 3. Q4 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Mitt Romney? Hispanic.......................................................... 16% Favorable........................................................ 52% White .............................................................. 74% Unfavorable .................................................... 41% Other............................................................... 10% Not sure .......................................................... 6% Q11 If you are 18 to 29 years old, press 1. If 30 to 45, press 2. If 46 to 65, press 3. If you are Q5 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion older than 65, press 4. of Richard Carmona? 18 to 29........................................................... 15% Favorable........................................................ 40% 30 to 45........................................................... 30% Unfavorable .................................................... 43% 46 to 65........................................................... 35% Not sure .......................................................... 17% Q6 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion Older than 65 .................................................. 20% of Jeff Flake? Favorable........................................................ 45% Unfavorable .................................................... 43% Not sure .......................................................... 12% November 2-3, 2012 3020 Highwoods Blvd. Survey of 1,080 likely voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs Ideology Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Obam a/Rom ney Carmona/Flake Barack Obama 46% 81% 80% 65% 19% 4% Richard Carmona 46% 81% 79% 67% 19% 4% Mitt Romney 53% 19% 17% 34% 80% 96% Jeff Flake 51% 15% 19% 31% 78% 93% Unde cide d 1% - 2% 1% 1% - Unde cide d 3% 5% 1% 2% 3% 3% Ideology Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Obama Approval Romney Favorability Approve 42% 77% 75% 58% 18% 4% Favorable 52% 28% 15% 35% 74% 94% Disapprove 53% 18% 22% 33% 79% 96% Unfavorable 41% 72% 77% 56% 19% 5% Not s ur e 5% 5% 3% 9% 3% 1% Not s ur e 6% 0% 8% 9% 7% 1% November 2-3, 2012 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 1,080 likely voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs Ideology Ideology Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Very Som ew hat Som ew hat Very Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Bas e liberal liberal Moderate conservative conservative Carmona Favorability Flak e Favorability Favorable 40% 74% 66% 53% 18% 8% Favorable 45% 18% 20% 27% 62% 84% Unfavorable 43% 16% 18% 24% 63% 81% Unfavorable 43% 79% 66% 57% 24% 10% Not s ur e 17% 10% 16% 23% 18% 12% Not s ur e 12% 3% 14% 15% 14% 6% Ge nder Ge nder Bas e Wom an Man Bas e Wom an Man Obama/Romney Carmona/Flake Barack Obama 46% 49% 42% Richard Carmona 46% 50% 42% Mitt Romney 53% 49% 57% Jeff Flake 51% 48% 55% Unde cide d 1% 2% 0% Unde cide d 3% 2% 3% November 2-3, 2012 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 1,080 likely voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs Ge nder Ge nder Bas e Wom an Man Bas e Wom an Man Obama Approval Romney Favorability Approve 42% 46% 37% Favorable 52% 49% 56% Dis appr ove 53% 49% 58% Unfavorable 41% 43% 39% Not s ur e 5% 5% 5% Not s ur e 6% 8% 4% Ge nder Ge nder Bas e Wom an Man Bas e Wom an Man Carmona Favorability Flake Favorability Favorable 40% 44% 35% Favorable 45% 40% 49% Unfavorable 43% 39% 47% Unfavorable 43% 47% 39% Not s ur e 17% 17% 17% Not s ur e 12% 12% 11% November 2-3, 2012 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 1,080 likely voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs Party Party Bas e Democrat Republican Independent/Other Bas e Democrat Republican Independent/Other Obam a/Rom ne y Carmona/Flake Barack Obama 46% 87% 10% 48% Richard Carmona 46% 86% 11% 50% Mitt Romney 53% 12% 90% 49% Jeff Flake 51% 12% 88% 45% Undecided 1% 1% 0% 3% Undecided 3% 3% 1% 5% Party Party Bas e Democrat Republican Independent/Other Bas e Democrat Republican Independent/Other Obama Approval Romney Favorability Approve 42% 82% 9% 40% Favor able 52% 16% 87% 46% Dis appr ove 53% 14% 89% 49% Unfavorable 41% 76% 10% 44% Not s ur e 5% 4% 1% 11% Not s ur e 6% 8% 3% 10% November 2-3, 2012 3020 Highwoods Blvd. survey of 1,080 likely voters Raleigh, NC 27604 [email protected] / 888 621-6988 Crosstabs Party Party Bas e Democrat Republican Independent/Other Bas e Democrat Republican Independent/Other Carmona Favorability