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Lazard Commodities Fund Monthly

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Lazard Commodities Fund Monthly Lazard Commodities Fund APR Commentary 2019 Market Overview OPEC discipline continued to drive performance in oil and related products for the BCOMTR during April, and the top performers were gasoline, crude oil and heating oil. Elsewhere, non-OPEC capital discipline proved helpful, even for US shale, and the Baker Hughes US Crude Oil Rotary Rig Count fell by 26 rigs during the month. is occurred despite the renewal of economic sanctions prohibiting the sale of Iran oil, and the continued decline in Venezuela oil production resulting from the country’s political crisis, and the recently imposed oil sanctions. e iron ore sector continued to wrestle with the consequences of the Brumadinho mine collapse in Brazil. It has been estimated that 10% of iron ore supply has been immediately suspended, and additional tailings dams are under review. In agriculture, there was concern about oods in the US Midwest delaying crop plantings, especially for corn, which require a much longer planting cycle than soy. Some of this appears to have been offset by healthy grain inventories, and the trade dispute with China. e number of African swine fever (ASF) outbreaks continued to rise during the month. e top three performers in the BCOMTR were: • RBOB Gasoline +11.0% • Brent Crude +7.4% • WTI Crude +6.6% e bottom three detractors in the BCOMTR were: • Kansas Wheat -9.7% • Wheat -6.9% • Aluminum -6.6% April Performance of Commodities, Stocks and Bonds Currency (US$) 4/2019 Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index -0.42% S&P 500 Index 4.05% MSCI World 3.60% Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate Total Return Bond Index 0.03% Bloomberg Barclays Global-Aggregate Total Return Bond Index -0.30% Portfolio Review We deploy a blended approach to commodity investing by investing in commodities and commodity related equities. We use this blended approach to identify and exploit the best way to express our respective commodity view for both listed and non-listed commodity exposure. Below is a summary of what aided and what hurt in April for the Lazard Global Commodity Strategy: Helped • Agriculture. Our underweight position here contributed positively as wheat and coffee underperformed. We also beneted from our positions in fertilizer companies such as CF and Nutrien • Industrial Metals. Our slight underweight in industrial metals aided performance, with specic contributions from our under- weight positions in nickel, zinc and aluminum • Energy. Our overweight positions in energy, specically oil, heating oil and positions in reners such as Marathon and S-Oil Hurt • Chemicals. Positions in chemicals and chlor-alkali were key detractors from performance, partially offset by positioning in construction materials such as Vulcan Materials Portfolio Activity We continued to maintain our allocations of an overweight in energy, and an under-weight in agriculture. We are overweight livestock, primarily as a result of an overweight allocation in lean hogs. In industrial metals, we are neutral to slightly underweight, with specic allocations in steel and iron ore. In precious metals, we are overweight gold through our positions in gold equities. Outlook e supply discipline and disruption in the rst quarter has continued into the second quarter of 2019. Our condence in the sector remains elevated for the reasons outlined below: • Supply discipline remains intact Greater uncertainty and condence about global economic growth will continue to impose greater capital discipline among commodity suppliers in general. More specically in oil, we believe the 6-month waivers to the Iranian sanctions have strengthened OPEC+ discipline as they reinforce their efforts to reduce global oil inventory. is pattern has extended to the base and precious metals sectors • Rising cost of capital Despite the US Federal Reserve’s (the Fed) recent decision to pause on rate hikes for the remainder of 2019, we believe that a substantially higher total outstanding stock of US Treasuries will create upward pressure on interest rates as the market, not the Fed, is the buyer of last resort. We are expecting a widening of credit spreads to very expensive Treasuries which will result in a lower, not higher, supply of commodities as the cost of capital remains above the return on invested capital • Weaker dollar We are more convinced that the US Federal Reserve’s position to pause rate hikes for the remainder of 2019 has been driven primarily by the fact that US cash rates are the highest in the developed world. We also believe that high cash rates pose an additional dilemma for the US Treasury, as cash rates are now almost at parity to the US Treasury 10-year bond yield. We are becoming increasingly skeptical about the sustainability of US dollar strength. Should it weaken, it would provide a tailwind for commodities Important Information This document is provided for information only and is not intended to constitute investment advice. All data contained herein are sourced by Lazard Asset Management or affiliates unless otherwise noted. The Lazard Commodities Fund is a sub-fund of Lazard Global Investment Funds plc, an open-ended investment company with variable capital structured as an umbrella fund with segregated liability between sub-funds incorporated with limited liability and is authorised and regulated as UCITS by the Central Bank of Ireland. Lazard Global Investment Funds plc is recognised by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) under section 264 of the Financial Services & Markets Act 2000 (“FSMA”) and therefore regulates the marketing of the Fund within the UK. The Central Bank of Ireland regulates all other aspects of the Fund's operations. Subscriptions may only be based on the current prospectus. There will be no right to cancel any agreement under the FCA cancellation rules. Compensation under the Financial Services Compensation Scheme will not be available. Copies of the full Prospectus, the relevant Key Investor Information Document (KIID) and the most recent Report and Accounts are available in English, and other languages where appropriate, on request from the address below or at www.lazardassetmanagement.com. Investors and potential investors should read and note the risk warnings in the prospectus and relevant KIID. There can be no assurance that the Fund's objectives or performance target will be achieved. Any views expressed herein are subject to change. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and you may not get back the amount you invested. The portfolio may be affected by changes in the exchange rate between the portfolio's base Page 2 Lazard Commodities Fund currency, the currency of your investments and your home currency. The information provided herein should not be considered a recommendation or solicitation to purchase, retain or sell any particular security. It should also not be assumed that any investment in these securities was or will be profitable. Any yield quoted is gross and is not guaranteed. It is subject to fees, taxation and charges within the Fund and the investor will receive less than the gross yield. Emerging and developing markets can face significant political, economic or structural challenges. The portfolio may experience delays in buying, selling and claiming ownership of investments and there is an increased risk that the portfolio may not get back the money invested. The Fund invests in financial derivative instruments ("FDIs"). While the use of FDIs can be beneficial, they also involve risks different from, and in certain cases, greater than, the risks presented by more traditional investments. FDIs may be subject to sudden, unexpected and substantial price movements that are not always predictable. This can increase the volatility of the Fund’s Net Asset Value. FDIs do not always totally track the value of the securities, rates or indices they are designed to track. The use of FDIs to gain greater exposure to securities, rates or indices than by a direct investment, increases the possibility for profit but also increases the risk of loss. The Fund is also subject to the risk of the insolvency or default of its counterparties to FDI investments. In such events the Fund may have limited recourse against the counterparty and may experiences losses. Issued and approved in the United Kingdom by Lazard Asset Management Limited, 50 Stratton Street, London W1J 8LL. Incorporated in England and Wales, registered number 525667. Lazard Asset Management Limited is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. .
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