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A Populist Zeitgeist? the Impact of Populism on Parties, Media and the Public in Western Europe

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A Populist Zeitgeist? the Impact of Populism on Parties, Media and the Public in Western Europe UvA-DARE (Digital Academic Repository) A populist Zeitgeist? The impact of populism on parties, media and the public in Western Europe Rooduijn, M. Publication date 2013 Document Version Final published version Link to publication Citation for published version (APA): Rooduijn, M. (2013). A populist Zeitgeist? The impact of populism on parties, media and the public in Western Europe. General rights It is not permitted to download or to forward/distribute the text or part of it without the consent of the author(s) and/or copyright holder(s), other than for strictly personal, individual use, unless the work is under an open content license (like Creative Commons). Disclaimer/Complaints regulations If you believe that digital publication of certain material infringes any of your rights or (privacy) interests, please let the Library know, stating your reasons. In case of a legitimate complaint, the Library will make the material inaccessible and/or remove it from the website. Please Ask the Library: https://uba.uva.nl/en/contact, or a letter to: Library of the University of Amsterdam, Secretariat, Singel 425, 1012 WP Amsterdam, The Netherlands. You will be contacted as soon as possible. UvA-DARE is a service provided by the library of the University of Amsterdam (https://dare.uva.nl) Download date:03 Oct 2021 A Populist Zeitgeist? The Impact of Populism on Parties, Media and the Public in Western Europe A Populist Zeitgeist? The Impact of Populism on Parties, Media and the Public in Western Europe ISBN 978-90-9027334-1 © Matthijs Rooduijn, 2013 Printed by: Almanakker, Oosterhout Cover design: Esther Ris, www.proefschriftomslag.nl Lay-out: Jeroen van Wijngaarden, www.proefschrift-opmaken.nl All rights reserved. Save exceptions stated by law, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system of any nature, or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, included a complete or partial transcription, without the prior written permission of the proprietor. A POPULIST ZEITGEIST? The Impact of Populism on Parties, Media and the Public in Western Europe ACADEMISCH PROEFSCHRIFT ter verkrijging van de graad van doctor aan de Universiteit van Amsterdam op gezag van de Rector Magnificus prof. dr. D.C. van den Boom ten overstaan van een door het college voor promoties ingestelde commissie, in het openbaar te verdedigen in de Agnietenkapel op donderdag 21 maart 2013, te 10:00 uur door Matteo Rooduijn geboren te Heerlen Promotiecommissie: Promotor: Prof. dr. Wouter van der Brug Co-promotor: Dr. Sarah L. de Lange Overige Leden: Dr. Tjitske Akkerman Prof. dr. Jan Willem Duyvendak Prof. dr. Meindert Fennema Dr. Cas Mudde Prof. dr. Stefaan Walgrave Faculteit der Maatschappij- en Gedragswetenschappen Table of contents List of tables iv List of figures v List of abbreviations vi Acknowledgments ix CHAPTER 1. Introduction: A Populist Zeitgeist in Western Europe? 1 Introduction 2 Defining populism 5 A populist Zeitgeist? 8 Case selection and data 16 Case selection 16 Data 20 Outline of the dissertation 23 CHAPTER 2. The Nucleus of Populism: In Search of the Lowest Common Denominator 27 Introduction 28 Characteristics of populism mentioned in the literature 30 Characteristics relating to ideas 31 Characteristics relating to style 33 Characteristics relating to organization 34 Case selection 34 Results 37 Watson’s People’s Party 37 Perot’s Reform Party 38 Perón’s Justicialist Party 40 Chávez’s MVR / PSUV 41 Le Pen’s Front National 43 Berlusconi’s Forza Italia / PdL 45 Conclusion and discussion 46 i CHAPTER 3. Measuring Populism in Comparative Research: Comparing Two Methods of Content Analysis 53 Introduction 54 Populism as a thin ideology consisting of two components 55 Research strategy 56 The classical content analysis 58 The computer-based content analysis 59 Results 61 Validity 61 Reliability 68 Conclusion 69 CHAPTER 4. Populist ‘Contagion’? Allegedly Populist Parties and Mainstream Parties in Western Europe 73 Introduction 74 Defining populism 75 Is populism contagious? 77 Design and method 81 Results 88 Conclusion 94 CHAPTER 5. The Mesmerizing Message: Populism in Public Debates in Western European Media 99 Introduction 100 Defining populism 101 Populism in public debates in the media 103 Research design and method 108 Case selection 108 Content analysis and the dependent variable 112 Independent variables 114 Method 115 Results 116 Conclusion and discussion 122 ii CHAPTER 6. I Can’t Get No Satisfaction: The Impact of Populism on Political Satisfaction 127 Introduction 128 Populism and political dissatisfaction 131 The impact of populism on political satisfaction 134 Data and methods 137 Data 137 Methods 142 Results 143 Conclusion 152 CHAPTER 7. Conclusion: The Specter of Populism 155 Introduction 156 Main findings 157 A populist Zeitgeist? 159 Contributions to the literature 162 Future research 167 The impact of populism in the near future 169 APPENDICES 171 Appendix A 172 Appendix B 173 Appendix C 175 Appendix D 176 Appendix E 179 Appendix F 181 Appendix G 182 Appendix H 182 REFERENCES 183 NEDERLANDSE SAMENVATTING 201 iii List of tables Table 1.1. Case selection for the conceptual part of the dissertation 17 Table 1.2. Case selection and data for the empirical part of the dissertation 22 Table 2.1. Characteristics of populism mentioned in the literature 35 Table 2.2. Selection of actors that are generally considered populist 36 Table 2.3. Allegedly populist actors and their characteristics 48 Table 3.1. Mean populism scores (standard deviations between brackets) 62 Table 4.1. Case details 82 Table 4.2. Populism in the programs of mainstream parties 86 Table 4.3. Populism in the programs of non-mainstream parties 87 Table 4.4. Populism scores of mainstream parties, 1988-2008 89 Table 4.5. Explaining populism in party programs 91 Table 5.1. Selected allegedly populist parties and their successes 109 Table 5.2. Selected newspapers and election periods 110 Table 5.3. Cross-classified multilevel models explaining the degree of populism in opinion articles (with country dummies) 121 Table 6.1. Selected countries and allegedly populist parties 138 Table 6.2. Regressions explaining the populism of a party, the populism of a newspaper, and satisfaction with democracy (with country dummies) 145 Table 6.3. Regressions explaining the populism of a party and Satisfaction with democracy (with country dummies) 147 Table 6.4. Path models explaining populist voting and satisfaction with democracy 151 iv List of figures Figure 1.1. The spiral of populism: main expectations 10 Figure 3.1. Classical content analysis: allegedly populist parties with populism scores below the mean (2.91) 63 Figure 3.2. Computerized content analysis: allegedly populist parties with populism scores below the mean (0.05) 64 Figure 3.3. Classical content analysis: other parties with populism scores above the mean (2.91) 65 Figure 3.4. Computerized content analysis: other parties with populism scores above the mean (0.05) 66 Figure 3.5. The classical and computerized content analyses compared 67 Figure 4.1. The effect of the success of allegedly populist parties on the degree of populism 93 Figure 5.1. Mean populism scores (left axis) and the success of allegedly populist parties (right axis) over time per country 118 Figure 5.2. Mean populism scores per newspaper 119 Figure 5.3. Mean populism scores per article type 120 Figure 6.1. Expressing discontent logic (1) and fuelling discontent logic (2) 149 Figure 7.1. The spiral of populism: main findings 160 v List of abbreviations AN Alleanza Nazionale (Italian right-wing party) BNP British National Party (UK right-wing party) CD Centrum Democraten (Dutch right-wing party) CDA Christen Democratisch Appèl (Dutch Christian democratic party) CdL Casa delle Libertà (Italian center-right party block) CDU Christlich Demokratische Union (German Christian democratic party) CMP Comparative Manifesto Project Cons Conservatives (UK conservative party) CSU Christlich Soziale Union (German Christian democratic party) D66 Democraten 66 (Dutch social liberal party) DC Democrazia Cristiana (Italian Christian democratic party) DF Dansk Folkeparti (Danish right-wing party) DS Democratici di Sinistra (Italian communist party) EES European Elections Studies EU European Union FDP Freie Demokratische Partei (German liberal party) FI Forza Italia (Italian conservative party) FML Full Maximum Likelihood FN Front National (French right-wing party) FPÖ Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (Austrian right-wing party) FRP Fremskrittspartiet (Norwegian conservative party) LN Lega Nord (Italian right-wing party) LPF Lijst Pim Fortuyn (Dutch right-wing party) MSI Movimento Sociale Italiano (Italian right-wing party) MVR Movimiento V República (Venezuelan communist party) PCF Parti Communiste Française (French communist party) PD Partito Democratico (Italian social democratic party) PdL Popolo della Libertà (Italian center-right party block) PDS Partei des Demokratischen Sozialismus (German communist party) PP Partito Populare Italiano (Italian Christian democratic party) PS Parti Socialiste (French socialist party) vi PSUV Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela (Venezuelan communist party) PvdA Partij van de Arbeid (Dutch social democratic party) PVV Partij voor de Vrijheid (Dutch right-wing party) RML Restricted Maximum Likelihood RPR Rassemblement pour la République (French conservative party) SEM Structural Equation Modeling SVP Schweizerische Volkspartei (Swiss right-wing party) SP Socialistische
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