DOCSLIB.ORG

The Global Crisis and Sub- Saharan Africa

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
The Global Crisis and Sub- Saharan Africa The Global Crisis and Sub- Saharan Africa Antoinette Sayeh African Department International Monetary Fund Main Messages 1. The global crisis is affecting SSA: growth is falling sharply, and fiscal and BoP pressures are mounting. 2. Policymakers have some room to respond with stimulative policies, but financing constraints impose limits. 3. The IMF has scaled up its support for Africa with increased and more flexible financing, technical assistance and policy advice. Main Transmission Channels of the Crisis to Sub-Saharan Africa Declining External Demand for SSA’s Output. Slumping Commodity Prices. Scarcer Financial Flows. Growth is slowing down GDP Growth 8 (Percent) 6 4 2 0 Sub-Saharan Africa World -2 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Sources: IMF, World Economic Outlook; and IMF, African Department database. Inflation is slowly falling, from a high level Consumer Price Inflation 20 20 (Percent) Sub-Saharan Africa World 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Source: IMF. Policy Response in SSA Countries should respond to the crisis by: • Using fiscal space where available, considering medium-term sustainability. • Where possible, using monetary policy and allowing the exchange rate to adjust to counter demand slowdown. • Countries have been responding broadly along these lines Fiscal PolicyResponse -15 -10 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 10 Sub-Saharan Africa: Fiscal DeficitChange Africa:Fiscal Sub-Saharan -5 -5 0 5 0 Botswana Liberia Congo, Rep. Seychelles São Tomé and Príncipe of Cape Verde Lesotho Swaziland Niger Angola Congo, Dem. Rep. of Mozambique Côte d'Ivoire South Africa Rwanda Nigeria Togo Mali Uganda 2008) minus 2009 pointsof GDP, s (Percentage Zambia Burkina Faso Equatorial Madagascar Guinea Eritrea Central African Republic Kenya Tanzania Mauritius Chad Benin Senegal Sierra Leone Namibia Guinea Gabon Gambia, The Comoros Ethiopia Guinea-Bissau Malawi Cameroon Ghana Burundi Monetary Policy Response Percent of SSA countries 80 80 First semester 2008 Second semester 2008 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Tightening No change in policy Loosening Tightening No change in policy Loosening Source: IMF staff estimates Role of International Community: The Recent G-20 Summit Commitment to restore growth Improving Financial Supervision and Regulation Strengthening Global Financial Institutions. Supporting Low-Income Countries Boosting IMF Resources Fund Response More Resources and More Flexible Conditions for IMF Financing Expanding and accelerating capacity building Strengthening Governance, Voice, and Representation.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Uncorrected Transcript
    1 AFRICA-2016/06/09 THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION FALK AUDITORIUM SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA: IMF REGIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Washington, D.C. Thursday, June 9, 2016 PARTICIPANTS: Introduction and Moderator: REED KRAMER Co-Founder and CEO AllAfrica Global Media Presenter: ANTOINETTE SAYEH Director, Africa Department International Monetary Fund Panelists: STEVEN RADELET Professor in the Practice of Development, Donald F. McHenry Chair in Global Human Development Director of the Global Human Development Program, Georgetown University AMADOU SY Senior Fellow and Director, Africa Growth Initiative The Brookings Institution * * * * * ANDERSON COURT REPORTING 706 Duke Street, Suite 100 Alexandria, VA 22314 Phone (703) 519-7180 Fax (703) 519-7190 2 AFRICA-2016/06/09 P R O C E E D I N G S MR. SY: Good morning everybody. Thanks for coming to this panel and presentation on the IMF Regional Economic Outlook and for making it on time. I don’t know what’s happening with the traffic today but I see we have a full room so thanks. At this current juncture there are lots of questions about Africa and about the narrative of Africa rising and all the positive messages that we have had during the previous decade or so. So I think it is very timely that we’re having this event today because it will help us really separate fact from fiction and take a realistic look at what is happening on the continent. For us that don’t have the capacity and the budget of the IMF the regional economic outlook is really a Godsend because it’s really a treasure of facts, data analysis that we can use to leverage our work on Africa.
    [Show full text]
  • Building Civil Service Capacity: Post-Conflict Liberia, 2006 - 2011
    BUILDING CIVIL SERVICE CAPACITY: POST-CONFLICT LIBERIA, 2006 - 2011 SYNOPSIS Liberian president Ellen Johnson Sirleaf took office in January 2006 knowing she had much to do to rebuild her country. Liberia was one of the poorest nations in the world. A 14-year civil war had destroyed most of the country’s physical infrastructure. The health- care system had collapsed. Few people had jobs. Sirleaf had ambitious plans to develop Liberia’s economy, but she knew she would have to rebuild the government itself in order to move forward. Many skilled Liberians had fled during the war, and those who remained did not have access to regular schooling. Lack of training and experience at all levels of government, from ministers to office helpers, threatened the president’s ability to translate plans into action. But paralysis threatened to trigger popular discontent and might even reignite conflict. Sirleaf needed to recruit highly skilled people for top leadership positions and build capacity in the middle and lower ranks. Fast action was crucial—and every option available risked increasing levels of inequality and suspicion if not managed carefully. The president persuaded three distinguished Liberians to help her attract and develop talent. Minister of Finance Antoinette Sayeh was the first to arrive, followed by C. William Allen, who became director general of the Civil Service Agency, and Harold Monger, who led the Liberia Institute of Public Administration. During the next five years, that team recruited more than 200 highly skilled professionals, trained over a thousand civil servants, and made government a more attractive place to work.
    [Show full text]
  • 2008 – 2009 Guide to Senior-Level Women Leaders in International Affairs
    2008 – 2009 Guide to Senior-Level Women Leaders in International Affairs: The U.S. and Abroad Each year, the Women's Foreign Policy Group (WFPG) publishes its Guide to Senior-Level Women Leaders in International Affairs: the U.S. and Abroad for distribution to the organiza- tion’s members and the public to highlight the voices of women around the world and the role that they play as leaders, diplomats, and policymakers. The guide contains an index of women in international affairs including: Heads of State and Government, Government Ministers, U.S. Women Officials and Diplomats, Women in International Organizations, and Women Representatives to the U.S. and the UN. The WFPG is an independent, nonpartisan, nonprofit, educational membership organization that promotes global engagement and the leadership, visibility and participation of women in international affairs. To learn more about the WFPG and for membership information please visit our website at www.wfpg.org. Updated July 2008 Table of Contents Elected Heads of State and Government 1 Non-Elected Heads of State and Government 2 Vice Presidents and Deputy Heads of State 3 Ministers 4 Minister of Foreign Affairs Minister of Defense Minister of Finance and Economy Senior-Level United States Government Officials 9 Department of State Department of Defense Department of Labor Department of Commerce Senior-Level Officials in International Organizations 12 United Nations World Bank International Monetary Fund Organization of American States Ambassadors of the United States 18 Representatives
    [Show full text]
  • Civil War and State Formation and State Gerdes Civil War
    Liberia was the scene of two devastating civil wars since late 1989 and became widely consid- ered a failed state. By contrast, the country is frequently described as a success story since the international professional Ellen Johnson Sirleaf assumed the presidency following democrat- ic elections in 2005. The book investigates the Felix Gerdes political economy of civil war and democratic peace and puts the developments into histori- cal perspective. The author argues that the civ- il wars did not represent the breakdown of the state but exhibited dynamics characteristic of Civil War state formation. His analysis of continuity and change in Liberia’s political evolution details and State Formation both political progress and persistent structur- The Political Economy of War and Peace in Liberia al deficits of the polity. Mikropo- Civil War and State Formation and State Civil War Gerdes ISBN 978-3-593-39892-1 litik der www.campus.de Gewalt Civil War and State Formation Mikropolitik der Gewalt – Micropolitics of Violence Volume 9 Edited by Klaus Schlichte and Peter Waldmann Felix Gerdes, Dr. phil., is political scientist and specializes in politics of Sub- Saharan Africa and South-East Asia. He currently works as Academic Staff at Zaman University, Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Felix Gerdes Civil War and State Formation The Political Economy of War and Peace in Liberia Campus Verlag Frankfurt/New York Bibliographic Information published by the Deutsche Nationalbibliothek. Die Deutsche Nationalbibliothek lists this publication in the Deutsche Nationalbibliografie. Detailed bibliographic data are available in the Internet at http://dnb.d-nb.de. ISBN 978-3-593-39892-1 All rights reserved.
    [Show full text]
  • Presentation the International Monetary Fund's October 2015
    Presentation The International Monetary Fund’s October 2015 Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa Wednesday, October 28, 2015 at 10:30am Institute for Security Studies Block C, Brooklyn Court, 361 Veale Street, Pretoria, New Muckleneuk 0181 followed by a light finger lunch The outlook for sub-Saharan Africa is weakening. Of the three factors that have underpinned strong growth over the last decade or so—a much improved business and macroeconomic environment, high commodity prices, and highly accommodative global financial conditions—the latter two have become far less supportive: commodity prices have retreated from their decade-highs, with China in the midst of rebalancing the sources of its growth away from raw material-intensive sectors, and global financial conditions have become more difficult. Compounding these external factors, the region enters this more uncertain period with lower domestic buffers than in 2008, especially on the fiscal front. Against this backdrop, the Director of the IMF’s African Department, Ms. Antoinette Sayeh, and the Head of the Regional Studies Division in the African Department, Ms. Céline Allard, will discuss the economic outlook and policy challenges for sub-Saharan Africa, as well as the region’s competitiveness. Please RSVP to Ms Anu Klaassens at [email protected] Bio for Ms. Sayeh Antoinette Monsio Sayeh assumed her current position as Director of the African Department of the International Monetary Fund in July 2008, after two and a half years as post-conflict Liberia’s Minister of Finance. Before joining President Ellen Johnson Sirleaf’s Cabinet, she worked for the World Bank for 17 years, including as Country Director for Benin, Niger, and Togo, in various roles in the Africa and South Asia regions, and as Assistant to its principal 2 Managing Director.
    [Show full text]
  • Partnership Paradox the Post-Conflict Reconstruction of Liberia’S Education System
    Partnership Paradox The Post-Conflict Reconstruction of Liberia’s Education System Partnership Paradox The Post-Conflict Reconstruction of Liberia’s Education System Editors Christopher Talbot and Aleesha Taylor Foreword Ellen Johnson Sirleaf President of the Republic of Liberia December 2015 Education Support Program Copyright © 2015 by the Open Society Foundations. All rights reserved. This publication is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-NoDerivs 3.0 license. You may copy and distribute the document only in its entirety as long as it is attributed to the authors and used for noncommercial, educational or public policy purposes. Photographs may not be used separately from the publication. ISBN: 978-1-940983-56-1 Published by Open Society Foundations 224 West 57th Street New York, NY 10019 USA www.opensocietyfoundations.org For more information contact: Aleesha Taylor at [email protected] Education Support Program Open Society Foundations Cover and layout by Judit Kovács l Createch Ltd. Cover photograph: Students in school for internally displaced people, Liberia, 2008. © Jim Goldberg l Magnum Acknowledgements Many people have been indispensible in the development of this publication. Not least among these are the 15 chapter authors whose documentation of their experience forms the core of this volume. Special thanks go to colleagues and former colleagues in the Open Society Education Support Program, who encouraged this project from the start, and especially to Jonathon Fairhead, Virginia
    [Show full text]
  • Center for Global Development CGD @ 10
    Center for Global Development CGD @ 10 Ten years of independent research & practical ideas for global prosperity www.cgdev.org The Center for Global Development combines rigorous research and cutting-edge communication techniques in pursuit of policy change. We are an independent voice, committed to fighting global poverty and inequality through research and analysis that is rigorous, relevant, and respected. Beyond excellence in research, CGD is dedicated to effectively and creatively communicating practical ideas to influence and improve policy. This approach is as vital to our work today as it was on day one, ten years ago. Table of Contents Our Mission 5 Greeting from Nancy & Ed 7 Ten Years of Impact & Influence 8 Debt Relief 10 Advance Market Commitments for Vaccines 12 Monitoring Major New Aid Initiatives 14 Closing the Evaluation Gap 16 Leadership Transitions at International Organizations 18 What to Do About Fragile States? 20 Food Security, Agriculture, and Trade 22 Increasing Sustainable Financial Access 24 Cleaning Up the Clean Tech Fund 26 Mobilizing $1 Trillion for the Global Financial Crisis 28 Looking Ahead 30 Breaking the Oil Curse with Cash 32 Forget Brain Drain—the Future Is Labor Mobility 34 Aligning Incentives for Better Aid 36 Addressing Climate Change: A Planetary Public Good 38 Global Education in the 21st Century 40 Infrastructure and the Private Sector in Africa 42 Rethinking U.S. Foreign Assistance 44 Using Yardsticks as Levers for Change 46 Increasing Value for Money in Global Health 48 Technology and Innovation 50 Board of Directors 54 CGD Staff 55 Advisory Group 60 CGD Alumni 60 Publications 62 Partnerships 64 Working Groups 66 Richard H.
    [Show full text]
  • Full List of Endnotes
    Independent Task Force Report No. 79 China’s Belt and Road Implications for the United States Jacob J. Lew and Gary Roughead, Chairs Jennifer Hillman and David Sacks, Project Directors ENDNOTES 1. “Assessing China’s Digital Silk Road Initiative,” Council on Foreign Relations, http:// cfr.org/china-digital-silk-road. 2. Strobe Talbott, “A Farewell to Flashman: American Policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia,” U.S. Department of State, July 21, 1997, http://1997-2001.state.gov/regions/ nis/970721talbott.html; Condoleezza Rice, “Remarks at Eurasian National University,” U.S. Department of State, October 13, 2005, http://2001-2009.state.gov/secretary/ rm/2005/54913.htm; and Hillary Rodham Clinton, “Remarks on India and the United States: A Vision for the 21st Century,” U.S. Department of State, July 20, 2011, http://2009-2017.state.gov/secretary/20092013clinton/rm/2011/07/168840.htm. 3. Xi Jinping, “Work Together to Build the Silk Road Economic Belt and the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road,” Xinhua, May 14, 2017, http://xinhuanet.com/english/2017- 05/14/c_136282982.htm; “One Belt, One Road” is the literal translation of the Chinese name for the initiative (一带一路). Although China initially translated the initiative into English as “One Belt, One Road,” it shifted and began referring to it as the “Belt and Road Initiative” in English (while not changing the Chinese characters used). In making this change, China could have been attempting to recast Belt and Road as more of an open-ended undertaking rather than one with a singular geostrategic thrust. This report uses Belt and Road Initiative, or BRI, in keeping with the new official translation.
    [Show full text]