ANDTHE UNEXPECTE EXPECTED D The Rhodes Cook Letter June 2003 The Rhodes Cook Letter JUNE 2003 / VOL. 4, NO. 3 Contents The Elections of 2003: The Expected and the Unexpected . 3 Chart: What’s up in 2003. 4 Chart: Changing Composition of the 108th Congress . 4 Chart: The South: Safely Republican at Federal Level . 5 Map & Chart: House Seats: States on the Grow . 7 Chart: Texas’ Democratic ‘Misfits’ . 9 Map & Charts: Gray Davis’ Decline . 11 Democratic Presidential Calendar Taking Shape . 12 Map: Tentative 2004 Presidential Primary-Caucus Schedule. 12 Chart : Tentative 2004 Democratic Calendar and Delegate Totals. 13 What’s up in 2004 . 14 Gubernatorial, House Candidates at the Ballot Box . 15 Subscription Page . 16 The Rhodes Cook Letter is published by Rhodes Cook. Web: tion for six issues is $99. Make checks payable to “The Rhodes rhodescook.com. E-mail: [email protected]. Design Cook Letter” and send them, along with your e-mail address, by Landslide Design, Rockville, MD. “The Rhodes Cook Letter” to P.O. Box 574, Annandale, VA. 22003. See the last page of is being published on a bimonthly basis in 2003. A subscrip- this newsletter for a subscription form. All contents are copyrighted ©2003 Rhodes Cook. Use of the material is welcome with attribution, though the author retains full copyright over the material contained herein. The Rhodes Cook Letter • June 2003 2 The Elections of 2003: The Expected and the Unexpected By Rhodes Cook he world of electoral politics in 2003 could be divided into two categories - the expected and Tthe unexpected. In the former are this year’s regularly scheduled elections – featuring a trio of gubernatorial contests in Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi – as well as the scattered array of special House elections that are continually required in a body of 435 members. On the other hand, there have been some unexpected electoral developments this year in the nation’s two largest states. Republican leaders in Texas are seeking to force a new round of redis- tricting designed to bring them additional House seats in 2004, while opponents of Democratic Gov. Gray Davis in California are mounting a recall movement that could bring a statewide vote as early as this fall. Both the expected and unexpected events of 2003 could have significant implications. A successful redistricting effort by Texas Republicans could swing upwards of six House seats from the Democrats to the GOP. That would not only overturn the Democrats’ 17-to-15 edge in the Lone Star state delegation, but transform what is already a comfortable Republican advantage on the south side of Capitol Hill into a commanding one. The California recall drive is a direct reflection on Davis’ dire political situation, exacerbated by a $38-billion state budget deficit on the heels of a statewide energy crisis. But Davis’ fate could also dramatically affect California’s electoral dynamics, which already may be beginning to change from strongly Democratic to a bit less so. Meanwhile, this year’s governors’ races, all in the South, offer a test of current voter sentiment in the nation’s most politically volatile region. Once solidly Democratic from presidential voting down to county dogcatcher, the South is now totally dominated by the GOP at the federal level. But the three gubernatorial elections give Democrats the opportunity this fall to begin stemming GOP momentum at a level of electoral politics in the South where the Democrats have remained com- petitive. Action Completed emocrats are defending two of the three governorships up this year – including Kentucky, Dwhere primaries May 20 settled the Democratic and Republican nominations to succeed the term-limited incumbent, Democrat Paul Patton. Political pedigree paid off on the Democratic side, where the winner was state Attorney General Ben Chandler, a grandson of “Happy” Chandler (a former governor, senator and major league base- ball commissioner). The younger Chandler finished narrowly ahead of state House Speaker Jody Richards. (Continued on Page 5) The Rhodes Cook Letter • June 2003 3 What’s up in 2003 Three Southern states hold gubernatorial elections this year, with the contests in Kentucky and Louisiana for open seats. Only in Mississippi is an incumbent able to seek reelection, with Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove seeking a second term. Gubernatorial nominations were settled in Kentucky May 20, with state Attorney General Ben Chandler winning the Democratic primary and Rep. Ernie Fletcher triumphing on the GOP side. Republican are seeking to win the governorship of Kentucky for the fi rst time since 1967. Next up: the Mississippi gubernatorial primaries on Aug. 5, featuring Republican National Committee Chairman Haley Barbour on the GOP side and incumbent Musgrove on the Democratic side. The two special House elections this year were decided in contests in which candidates of all parties ran together on the same ballot. The outcome in the Texas 19th refl ects the results of a runoff between Republicans Randy Neugebauer and Mike Conaway. Governorships Incumbent Primary Runoff General Election Kentucky Paul Patton (D) May 20 - Nov. 4 Louisiana Mike Foster (R) Oct. 4 Nov. 15 - Mississippi Ronnie Musgrove (D) Aug. 5 Aug. 26 Nov. 4 Special House Elections Percent of Total Vote Former Member New Member Election Turnout Dem. Rep. Other Patsy Mink (D) Hawaii 2 Ed Case (D) Jan. 4 75,574 43.7% -- (died Sept. 28, 2002) Larry Combest (R) Randy Texas 19 June 3 56,505 - 50.5% - (resigned May 31, 2003) Neugebauer (R) The Changing Composition of the 108th Congress So far, there have been few changes in the membership of the 108th Congress. Sen Frank Murkowski resigned to become governor of Alaska and appointed his daughter to fi ll his seat. Democratic Rep. Patsy Mink of Hawaii died and was succeeded by Democrat Ed Case. Republican Rep. Larry Combest of Texas resigned and was succeeded by Republican Randy Neugebauer. Date and Event House of Representatives Senate R D Ind. Vac. R D Ind. Vac. Nov. 5, 2002 - ELECTION 229 205 1 51 48 1 Sept. 28, 2002 - Rep. Patsy T. Mink (D-Hawaii 2) dies but is elected posthumously Nov. 5 229 204 1 1 Dec. 2, 2002 - Sen. Frank Murkowski (R-Alaska) resigns to become governor 50 48 1 1 of Alaska Dec. 20, 2002 - Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) appointed to fi ll her father’s 51 48 1 Senate seat Jan. 4, 2003 - Special election in Hawaii 2nd won by Ed Case (D) 229 205 1 May 31, 2003 - Rep. Larry Combest (R-Texas 19) resigns 228 205 1 1 June 3, 2003 - Special election in Texas 19th won by Randy Neugebauer (R) 229 205 1 The Rhodes Cook Letter • June 2003 4 (Continued from Page 3) On the Republican side, though, political lineage was not rewarded, as state Rep. Steve Nunn, a son of Kentucky’s last Republican governor, Louie Nunn (1967-71), ran a distant third in a primary won handily by U.S. Rep. Ernie Fletcher. Both primary winners were backed by major elements of their parties, although both had to survive some unusual twists and turns before claiming their nominations. Fletcher lost his initial running mate for lieutenant governor, an aide to Sen. Mitch McConnell, when a court ruled that he failed to meet state residency requirements. Chandler had to fend off an $8 million challenge from wealthy businessman Bruce Lunsford, who abruptly quit the race on the eve of the primary after a spirited ad war with Chandler raised ques- tions about Lunsford’s business practices as a nursing home operator. Lunsford subsequently threw his support to the financially undermanned Richards, who mounted a late surge that came within 5 percentage points of upsetting Chandler. The contest between Chandler and Fletcher is expected to be The South: Safely Republican at Federal Level, highly competitive, as Competitive in Gubernatorial Races are the gubernatorial contests this fall in Republicans have come to dominate voting across the South for federal offices, but still find Louisiana and Missis- themselves closely contested by the Democrats in gubernatorial contests. This year all three governorships up for grabs are in the South - Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi - and all sippi. three are expected to be highly competitive. The two special Last year, five governorships in the region changed party hands. Republicans picked up statehouses in a trio of states in the Deep South - Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina. House elections Democrats gained governorships in Oklahoma and Tennessee. settled thus far this year, though, have An asterisk (*) indicates that the presidential result is based on the electoral vote in 2000. For other offices, numbers reflect the current total of seats held by each party. The definition of been in one-party the South favored by this publication includes the states of the old Confederacy plus Kentucky districts with no sus- and Oklahoma, 13 states in all. pense about which party would win. In Electoral Votes / Seats January, Democrat Ed Office Republicans Democrats % GOP Case, a cousin of for- President* 163 0 100% mer AOL-Time War- Senate 17 9 65% ner chairman, Steve Case, won the Hawaii House 85 57 60% seat vacated by fel- Governors 76 54% low Democrat Patsy Mink, who died last September. Case had won a special election in late November to fill the final weeks of Mink’s term in the 107th Congress, and finished first among a field of 44 candidates in the January vote to retain the seat for the 108th Congress. In the staunchly Democratic 2nd District, which includes all of Hawaii outside the populous Honolulu area, Case paced the field with 44% of the vote. The leading Republican in The Rhodes Cook Letter • June 2003 5 the race finished a distant fourth with barely 5 percent of the vote.