R AMERICAED AND BLUE

REDUX The Rhodes Cook Letter

October 2003 The Rhodes Cook Letter OCTOBER 2003 / VOL. 4, NO. 5 Contents

Bush, The Democrats and ‘Red’ and ‘Blue’ America ...... 3 Chart: Red & Blue America Summary ...... 4 Chart: Red & Blue USA ‘02 Results, ‘04 Action ...... 5 Map & Chart: Bush and the Map, 2000-04 ...... 8 Chart: The President’s Party at Midterm and Presidential Elections that Follow ...... 9 Chart & Graph: GOP Gains Separation in ‘02 House Vote ...... 10

California: The Cornerstone of ‘Blue’ America ...... 11 Chart : Turnout Comparison: The Recall vs. High Profile Races of ‘02 . . . . 11 Map & Chart: The Recall Vote by County...... 12 Chart: Ronnie & Arnold: Boffo Political Debuts ...... 13

Tentative 2004 Democratic Primary Calendar and Delegate Count ...... 15 Other 2003 Elections: Gubernatorial, House Candidates at Ballot Box . . . . 16 Changing Composition of the 108th Congress... And Governorships ...... 17 Subscription Page...... 18

Looking Ahead: The next issue in December will focus on the fast-approaching presi- dential nominating season, the state of the Democratic campaign, and the varied terrain of primaries and caucuses the party’s candidates will face.

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The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2003 2 Bush, The Democrats, and ‘Red’ and ‘Blue’ America

hile the struggling economy or the situation in Iraq might ultimately undermine President WGeorge W. Bush’s bid for a second term, he is approaching his reelection campaign as arguably the most successful party-building president since Franklin D. Roosevelt.

Certainly, that is the case when measured in terms of Republican officeholders. FDR and Bush are the only presidents since the Depression whose parties gained House and Senate seats in their first midterm election. Both the Democrats under Roosevelt in 1934, and the Republicans under Bush in 2002, performed the rare political feat of solidifying their majorities on both sides of Capitol Hill in midterm voting. The GOP also emerged from last year’s election with more state legislative seats than the Demo- crats for the first time in a half century. And while the number of Republican governors has declined from 29 after the 2000 election to 27 now, Arnold Schwarzenegger’s recent victory in the California recall election gives the GOP control of the governorships in the four most populous states (California, Texas, New York and Florida). All of this compares quite favorably to Bush’s recent predecessors. Three years into Bill Clinton’s presidency, the Democrats had already lost their majorities on both sides of Capitol Hill. So had the Republicans at a similar point of Dwight D. Eisenhower’s presidency. As Jimmy Carter approached reelection, Democratic House and Senate majorities were on the decline, while John F. Kennedy moved toward the fateful November of 1963 with an increased Democratic majority in the Senate but a slightly smaller Democratic House majority than when he first took office. And the last three Republican presidents before Bush – Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and George Bush – all approached reelection saddled with Democratic majorities in the House of Representa- tives. Nixon and the elder Bush had to deal with a Democratic-controlled Senate as well.

2002: ‘Red’ America Trumps ‘Blue’ America

epublicans succeeded in the 2002 election by doing better on their part of the national elec- Rtoral map than Democrats did on theirs. It is a map that has taken on a life of its own since the closely fought 2000 election, and reflects the concept of a nation evenly divided between ‘red’ and ‘blue’ America. For whatever reason, red is the color often associated with Republicans on election maps, with blue the color used to depict the Democrats. Thirty states comprise Red America, the states carried by Bush in the last presidential election. They are mainly in the South, the Plains, and the Mountain West. Twenty states make up Blue America. They are the states carried by Democrat Al Gore and are mainly in the Northeast, the Pacific West, the industrial Midwest and the more agrarian Upper Midwest. Altogether, Republican candidates won a healthy 78% of the Senate elections in Red America last fall, 74% of the gubernatorial elections, and 63% of the House elections.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2003 3 Meanwhile, Democrats won GOP’s 2002 Victory Fashioned in ‘Red’ America just 64% of the Senate elec- tions in Blue America, 58% of One of the enduring legacies of the 2000 presidential election is the concept of the House elections, and 53% ‘Red’ and ‘Blue’ America - red being the 30 states carried by Republican George W. of the gubernatorial races. Bush and blue being the 20 states, plus the District of Columbia, won by Democrat Al Gore. The Bush states are largely in the South and America’s rural heartland. The To be sure, Democrats Gore states are clustered in the industrial Frost Belt and along the Pacific Coast. Taken scored some notable ‘against together, Red and Blue America produced an almost even division of the electoral vote in the last presidential election. the grain’ victories in guber- natorial and Senate races last Republicans basically won the 2002 midterm elections by running better in gubernatorial, Senate and House races in ‘red’ states than Democrats did in the ‘blue’ fall, holding hotly contested ones. In all three categories, the GOP won a higher share of the races in states carried Senate seats in Louisiana and by Bush in 2000 than Democrats won in the states carried by Gore. South Dakota, while picking The tally of House members in Blue America includes one independent, Vermont’s up a Senate seat in Arkansas Bernard Sanders. and governorships in such seemingly hostile territory as RED AMERICA Seats Won % of races Arizona, Kansas, Oklahoma Total Reps. Dems. won by Reps. and Wyoming. Democrats even picked up the gover- Governors 19 14 5 74% norship in Tennessee, which Senators 23 18 5 78% had denied its electoral votes House 218 138 80 63% BLUE AMERICA Seats Won two years earlier to native % of races son Al Gore – 11 electoral Total Reps. Dems. won by Dems. votes that would have given Governors 17 8 9 53% Gore the presidency. Senators 11 4 7 64% But Republicans made deep- House 217 91 125 58% er inroads into Blue America last year than Democrats did into Red America. Case in point, the House races. While the GOP won 91 of the 217 House seats in the Gore states last year, Democrats won only 80 of 218 seats in the Bush states. The resulting 58-seat advantage that the GOP posted in Red America easily offset the 34-seat edge that Democrats had in Blue America. Republicans also picked up a critical Senate seat in Minnesota, and won six governorships in states from Massachusetts to Hawaii that Gore had carried two years earlier by at least 15 percentage points. For good measure, the GOP picked up the Vermont governorship vacated by Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean.

Party Building Can Beget Polarization

ush’s White House has played an integral role in the Republicans’ recent success, both in Brecruiting candidates and helping to raise tens of millions of dollars to fund their campaigns. Bush has exhibited a degree of intraparty involvement that goes far beyond the level of most of his recent predecessors in the Oval Office. And so far, it has paid off. But the flip side of efficient, hard-charging party building can be polarization, something the Ameri- can electorate is displaying these days in spades. A Gallup Poll taken earlier this month indicated that fully three-quarters of all registered voters have already made up their mind whether they will vote for or against Bush next November. And they are (Continued on Page 6) The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2003 4 2002 Election Results in Red and Blue America... And What’s Up in 2004

Republicans are indicated below in bold type; Democrats in regular type. An asterisk (*) indicates the gubernational election will be held in 2003. Where a presidential candidate’s margin of victory was less than 1 percentage point in 2000, it is given in tenths of a point, or in the case of Florida, hundredths of a percentage point.

RED AMERICA (States carried by Bush in 2000)

2000 Pres. 2002 Election Winners Up in 2004 Winner State(and margin) Gov. Sen. House R D I Governors Senators UUtahtah BBushush bbyy 441%1% - - R 2 1 MMichaelichael LeavittLeavitt (R)(R) RRobertobert BBennettennett ((R)R) IIdahodaho BBushush bbyy 440%0% R R R 2 0 - MMichaelichael CrapoCrapo (R)(R) WWyomingyoming BBushush bbyy 440%0% D R R 1 0 - - AAlaskalaska BBushush bbyy 331%1% R R R 1 0 - LLisaisa MMurkowskiurkowski ((R)R) NNebraskaebraska BBushush bbyy 229%9% R R R 3 0 - - NNorthorth DakotaDakota BBushush bbyy 228%8% - - D 0 1 JJohnohn HoevenHoeven (R)(R) BByronyron DorganDorgan (D)(D) MMontanaontana BBushush bbyy 225%5% - D R 1 0 JJudyudy MMartzartz ((R)R) - SSouthouth DakotaDakota BBushush bbyy 223%3% R D R 1 0 - TTomom DaschleDaschle (D)(D) OOklahomaklahoma BBushush bbyy 222%2% D R R 4 1 - DDonon NicklesNickles (R)(R) KKansasansas BBushush bbyy 221%1% D R R 3 1 - SSamam BrownbackBrownback ((R)R) TTexasexas BBushush bbyy 221%1% R R D 1155 1177 - - MMississippiississippi BBushush bbyy 117%7% - R 2 2 RRonnieonnie MusgroveMusgrove (D)*(D)* - IIndianandiana BBushush bbyy 116%6% - - R 6 3 JJoeoe KernanKernan (D)(D) EEvanvan BBayhayh ((D)D) SSouthouth CarolinaCarolina BBushush bbyy 116%6% R R R 4 2 - EErnestrnest HollingsHollings (D)(D) AAlabamalabama BBushush bbyy 115%5% R R R 5 2 - RRichardichard ShelbyShelby (R)(R) KKentuckyentucky BBushush bbyy 115%5% - R R 5 1 PPaulaul PattonPatton (D)*(D)* JJimim BBunningunning ((R)R) NNorthorth CarolinaCarolina BBushush bbyy 113%3% - R R 7 6 MMikeike EasleyEasley (D)(D) JJohnohn EdwardsEdwards (D)(D) GGeorgiaeorgia BBushush bbyy 112%2% R R R 8 5 - ZZellell MillerMiller (D)(D) BBenen NNighthorseighthorse CColoradoolorado BBushush bbyy 88%% R R R 5 2 - CCampbellampbell ((R)R) LLouisianaouisiana BBushush bbyy 88%% - D R 4 3 MMikeike FosterFoster (R)*(R)* JJohnohn BreauxBreaux (D)(D) VVirginiairginia BBushush bbyy 88%% - R R 8 3 - - AArizonarizona BBushush bbyy 66%% D - R 6 2 - JJohnohn McCainMcCain (R)(R) WWestest VirginiaVirginia BBushush bbyy 66%% - D D 1 2 BBobob WiseWise (D)(D) - AArkansasrkansas BBushush bbyy 55%% R D D 1 3 - BBlanchelanche LincolnLincoln (D)(D) NNevadaevada BBushush bbyy 44%% R - R 2 1 - HHarryarry ReidReid (D)(D) GGeorgeeorge VVoinovichoinovich OOhiohio BBushush bbyy 44%% R - R 1122 6 - ((R)R) TTennesseeennessee BBushush bbyy 44%% D R D 4 5 - - CChristopherhristopher BBondond MMissouriissouri BBushush bbyy 33%% - R R 5 4 BBobob HoldenHolden (D)(D) ((R)R) NNewew HampshireHampshire BBushush bbyy 11%% R R R 2 0 CCraigraig BensonBenson (R)(R) JJuddudd GreggGregg (R)(R) FFloridalorida BBushush bbyy 00.01%.01% R - R 1188 7 - BBobob GrahamGraham (D)(D) 113838 8800

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2003 5 BBLUELUE AAMERICAMERICA (States(States carriedcarried byby GoreGore inin 2000)2000)

22000000 Pres.Pres. 22002002 EElectionlection WWinnerinner UUpp iinn 22004004 WWinnerinner SStatetate ((andand mmargin)argin) GGov.ov. SSen.en. HHouseouse R D I GGovernorsovernors SSenatorsenators New Mexico Gore by 0.1% D RR21 - - Wisconsin Gore by 0.2% D - 4 4 - Russell Feingold (D) Iowa Gore by 0.3% D D R 41 - Charles Grassley (R) Oregon Gore by 0.5% D R D 1 4 - Ron Wyden (D) Minnesota Gore by 2% RR 44 - - Pennsylvania Gore by 4% D - R 12 7 - Arlen Specter (R) Maine Gore by 5% D R D02 - - Michigan Gore by 5% D D R 96 - - Washington Gore by 6% - - D 3 6 Gary Locke (D) Patty Murray (D) Vermont Gore by 10% R -I001Jim Douglas (R) Patrick Leahy (D) California Gore by 12% D - D 20 33 - Barbara Boxer (D) Illinois Gore by 12% D D R 10 9 - Peter Fitzgerald (R) Delaware Gore by 13% - D R 1 0 Ruth Ann Minner (D) - Maryland Gore by 16% R - D 2 6 - Barbara Mikulski (D) New Jersey Gore by 16% - D D 6 7 - - Connecticut Gore by 18% R - R 3 2 - Christopher Dodd (D) Hawaii Gore by 18% R - D 0 2 - Daniel Inouye (D) New York Gore by 25% R - D 10 19 - Charles Schumer (D) Massachusetts Gore by 27% R DD 010 - - Rhode Island Gore by 29% R DD 02 - - 91 125 1

(Continued from Page 4) evenly split – 38% saying they would definitely vote for the president, and 38% saying they would definitely vote against him. That leaves only one-quarter of the electorate up for grabs for an elec- tion still more than a year away. This is where Bush and FDR may part company. Like the current Bush administration, Roosevelt’s New Deal had its visceral opponents. But by the start of FDR’s first reelection campaign in 1936, Roosevelt was immensely popular and the Democrats dominated all levels of American politics. Meanwhile, the Republicans then were a traumatized and defeated force with the discredited former president, Herbert Hoover, still their most visible public face. FDR went on to score a landslide reelection victory in 1936 that helped expand the Democrats’ already huge majorities on Capitol Hill to historic levels – a whopping 75 seats in the Senate, 333 seats in the House. These days, the Republican advantage at both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue is much more tenuous. Their coalition is not so imposing that they have votes to spare in the presidential race or seats to spare in Congress. The Republicans do begin the 2004 campaign with some significant advantages. Bush is unopposed for renomination – always a good sign for an incumbent president. He is on his way to raising a record $170 million or so for the primary season, dollars that can fund a massive advertising blitz during the spring and summer months next year that the Democrats will be hard pressed to match. In addition, the decennial post-Census recalculation of the electoral vote gives the states of Red America seven more electoral votes in 2004 than they had in 2000, and Blue America seven electoral votes less.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2003 6 At the Senate level, Republicans are seemingly sitting pretty, even with a scant 51 seats in their pos- session. Democrats are the ones who have to play defense in 2004. Of the 34 senators up next year, 19 are Democrats and 10 of their seats are in Red America, including those being vacated by John Edwards of North Carolina, Ernest Hollings of South Carolina, and Zell Miller of Georgia. Meanwhile, of the 15 GOP seats up next year, just three are in Blue America, and only that of Peter Fitzgerald of Illinois is open. House Republicans look nearly as well positioned, especially if a new GOP-drawn map of the Texas congressional districts holds up in court. Republicans are hopeful that the controversial map might swing up to a half dozen seats their way next year, padding a GOP majority in the House that cur- rently numbers 229 seats.

Expect the Unexpected

till, if there is one rule of politics the last decade, it is to expect the unexpected. SWho would have expected the Democrats to win the White House in 1992, in an election where a wealthy independent candidate emerged from nowhere to take nearly 20% of the vote… or that the Democrats would lose control of both houses of Congress in 1994 … or that the president would be impeached in 1998, and a new president elected in 2000 without a popular vote majority … or that the president’s party would gain seats in both the House and Senate in 2002, defying history for the second midterm election in a row? There is no mistaking that this is a politically volatile time, with the number of independent voters on the rise and the strength of independent-minded suburbs growing. And that could give the Demo- crats in 2004 a fighting chance, particularly in the presidential race. In 2000, Gore was able to sweep many of the battleground states of the industrial Frost Belt by com- bining big majorities in large urban centers such as Philadelphia, Detroit and Chicago, with strong showings in the vote-rich suburban counties that adjoin them. That enabled Gore to carry Pennsylva- nia by winning just 18 of its 67 counties, to take Michigan by winning only 24 of its 83 counties, and to bag Illinois by carrying just 24 of its 102 counties. Democratic gubernatorial candidates last fall were able to replicate Gore’s victorious formula in those same three states, running well enough in the large cities and suburbs to offset Republican strength in smaller cities and rural areas. Former Philadelphia Mayor Ed Rendell carried just 18 counties in winning the governorship of Penn- sylvania. State Attorney General Jennifer Granholm carried just 27 counties in capturing the Michigan governorship. And Rod Blagojevich, a House member from Chicago, won just 35 counties in winning the Illinois governorship. All three Democrats won open gubernatorial chairs that Republicans had held previously. The basic difficulty for Democrats in 2004 is that they do not have much room for error. If they write off all, or virtually all, of the South next year, they will need to hold virtually all of the states that went for Gore last time as well as carry one or more of the states that got away. Florida, New Hampshire and Missouri were the closest of Gore’s near misses. All of them went for Bush by margins of 3 percentage points or less (Florida, of course, by much, much less). But all three states were the scenes of notable Republican victories in 2002. The president’s brother, Jeb, was reelected governor of Florida by more than 650,000 votes. Republicans won open gubernatorial and

(Continued on Page 9)

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2003 7 Bush and the Electoral College Map Carried by Bush in 2000

Carried by Gore in 2000

Most of the states that gained House seats (and hence, electoral votes) as a result of reapportionment following the 2000 Census are in ‘Red’ America, while most of the states that lost seats (and electoral votes) are in ‘Blue’ America. Put another way, if each party next year won the same states they did in the last presidential election, the Republicans’ winning total would grow from 271 electoral votes to 278. A total of 270 electoral votes are needed to win the White House.

Electoral Votes RED AMERICA (Carried by Bush in 2000) 2000 2004 Change Alabama 9 9 Alaska 3 3 Arizona 8 10 + 2 Arkansas 6 6 Colorado 8 9 + 1 Florida 25 27 + 2 Georgia 13 15 + 2 Electoral Votes Idaho 4 4 BLUE AMERICA Indiana 12 11 - 1 (Carried by Gore in 2000) 2000 2004 Change Kansas 6 6 California 54 55 + 1 Kentucky 8 8 Connecticut 8 7 - 1 Louisiana 9 9 Delaware 3 3 Mississippi 7 6 - 1 Hawaii 4 4 Missouri 11 11 Illinois 22 21 - 1 Montana 3 3 Iowa 7 7 Nebraska 5 5 Maine 4 4 Nevada 4 5 + 1 Maryland 10 10 New Hampshire 4 4 Massachusetts 12 12 North Carolina 14 15 + 1 Michigan 18 17 - 1 North Dakota 3 3 Minnesota 10 10 Ohio 21 20 - 1 New Jersey 15 15 Oklahoma 8 7 - 1 New Mexico 5 5 South Carolina 8 8 New York 33 31 - 2 South Dakota 3 3 Oregon 7 7 Tennessee 11 11 Pennsylvania 23 21 - 2 Texas 32 34 + 2 Rhode Island 4 4 Utah 5 5 Vermont 3 3 Virginia 13 13 Washington 11 11 West Virginia 5 5 Wisconsin 11 10 - 1 Wyoming 3 3 Dist. of Columbia 3 3 TOTAL 271 278 + 7 TOTAL 267 260 - 7 Note: Gore’s electoral vote total in 2000 was actually 266. One Democratic elector from the District of Columbia cast a blank ballot.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2003 8 (Continued from Page 7)

Senate races in New Hampshire, with the state’s most prominent Democrat, Gov. Jeanne Shaheen, losing the latter. And in Missouri, Democratic Sen. Jean Carnahan was unseated. Meanwhile, there were some ominous signs for Democrats last fall in Blue America. In Maryland, which Gore had won by 16 percentage points, the GOP elected their first governor since Spiro Agnew in 1966. Republican Rep. Robert Ehrlich swept all but the three most liberal jurisdictions in the state – suburban Montgomery and Prince George’s counties near Washington, D.C., and the city of Baltimore – in defeating Democratic Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend. In Minnesota, which Gore carried by just 2 percentage points, Republicans last fall took both the governorship and the Senate seat of the late Paul Wellstone in an emotionally charged election that produced a turnout that approached a presidential-year level. The 2.25 million Minnesota vot- Since World War II: Some Connection Between Midterm Voting for the House and the Next Presidential Election

Since World War II, there has been some connection between the success (or failure) of the president’s party in midterm voting for the House of Representatives and the presidential election that followed. While that is good news for President George W. Bush, who helped Republicans pick up six House seats in 2002, neither the positive or negative outcome is a hard and fast rule. In 1994, for instance, the Democrats lost 52 House seats, the second-biggest midterm collapse by the president’s party in a half century. But Democrat Bill Clinton easily won reelection as president in 1996. On the other hand, the Democrats in 1998 gained five House seats, the second biggest midterm gain for the president’s party since World War II. But the Democrats lost the White House two years later, their victory in the popular vote notwithstanding. An asterisk (*) indicates that Presidents Harry Truman and Lyndon B. Johnson could have run for reelection in 1952 and 1968, respectively, but decided not to. A pound sign (#) indicates that the presidency changed hands between the beginning of the midterm election year and the next presidential election. John F. Kennedy was assassinated in November 1963 and was succeeded by Johnson. Richard Nixon resigned the presidency in August 1974 and was replaced by Gerald R. Ford.

President’s Party

Midterm Midterm Change in Outcome of the Next Election President House Seats Presidential Election Type of Election 2002 G.W. Bush (R) + 6 ??? Incumbent up 1998 Clinton (D) + 5 Lost electoral vote, Open seat won popular vote

1962 Kennedy (D) - 4 Won Incumbent up# 1986 Reagan (R) - 5 Won Open seat 1990 G. Bush (R) - 8 Lost Incumbent up 1970 Nixon (R) - 12 Won Incumbent up 1978 Carter (D) - 15 Lost Incumbent up 1954 Eisenhower (R) - 18 Won Incumbent up 1982 Reagan (R) - 26 Won Incumbent up 1950 Truman (D) - 29 Lost Open seat* 1966 Johnson (D) - 47 Lost Open seat* 1958 Eisenhower (R) - 48 Lost Open seat 1974 Nixon/Ford (R) - 48 Lost Incumbent up# 1994 Clinton (D) - 52 Won Incumbent up 1946 Truman (D) - 55 Won Incumbent up Source: Vital Statistics on Congress.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2003 9 ers who turned out last November represented more than 90% the number that voted in 2000 – an unusually high midterm election turnout. And this fall in California, a state that Gore won by 12 percentage points, voters approved the recall of Democratic Gov. Gray Davis by a margin of nearly 1 million votes while turning the office over to Republican Schwarzenegger by a margin approaching 1.5 million. For the Austrian-born movie star, it is a landslide political debut that rivals Ronald Reagan’s in 1966. But the ultimate meaning of the recall vote is not immediately apparent. Schwarzenegger’s victory could provide an opening for Bush to compete successfully next year for California’s 55 electoral votes, a result that almost certainly would reduce Democratic chances of winning the presidential election to slim or none. Yet the recall vote could also be the first sign of a new wave of anti-incumbent sentiment that could roil the political waters for Bush and the Republicans in 2004. A strong anti-incumbent wave a decade ago helped to sweep his father from the White House in 1992 and Democrats from Con- gress in 1994. We are a year away from knowing whether the ramifications of the California recall favor the Dem- ocrats, the Republicans, or ultimately neither. How it plays out will go a long way in determining whether Red or Blue America emerges triumphant in 2004.

Democrats Republicans Gaining Separation: The 2002 Republican House Victory

In 2002, Republicans won their most convincing victory in congressional voting since the GOP’s historic breakthrough in 1994. The results reflect the voting for all House seats, contested and uncontested. Midterm election results in the chart below are indicated in bold type.

Vote for House Candidates % Won by Victorious Party: Reps. Dems. Plurality Total Vote House Seats 1990 27,602,241 32,471,851 4,869,610 D 52.9% 61.4% 1992 43,811,597 48,795,762 4,984,165 D 50.8% 59.3% 1994 36,995,166 32,072,375 4,922,791 R 52.4% 52.9% 1996 43,902,303 43,626,470 275,833 R 48.9% 52.2% 1998 32,254,557 31,482,036 772,521 R 48.9% 51.3% 2000 46,954,281 46,520,851 433,430 R 48.3% 50.8% 2002 37,360,424 33,758,288 3,602,136 R 50.9% 52.6% Source: America Votes for election results since 1994; Congressional Quarterly Weekly Report for previous years. The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2003 10 California: Still the Cornerstone of ‘Blue’ America? Over the last decade, California has been reliably Democratic in races up and down the ballot. But Arnold Schwarzenegger’s victory in the state’s special gubernatorial election Oct. 7 recalls a not so distant past when it was the Republicans that dominated presidential and gubernatorial voting in the nation’s largest state. Democrats have swept California in each of the last three presidential elections by a margin in excess of 1 million votes. But the GOP carried California in nine of the 10 previous elections (from 1952 (Continued on Page 13) Voter Turnout: California Recall Vs. Some High-Profile Races of 2002

Turnout for the California recall election Oct. 7 was significantly higher than the state’s regularly scheduled gubernatorial election in 2002. Then, the turnout was less than 70% of the number of California voters that participated in the 2000 presidential election; turnout for this fall’s recall election reached 80% of the 2000 total. While that figure was well above the turnout rate for many of the high-profile races across the country in 2002, it was still below Minnesota and South Dakota, where volatile Senate races last fall drew massive voter interest. The number of votes cast in South Dakota last year was actually higher than for the presidential election in 2000 - an unusual occurrence. Turnout figures in the chart below are based on official returns, as published in the 2000 and 2002 editions of America Votes, with the exception of the California recall election. Voter turnout for the recall is based on nearly complete but unofficial returns, with the count of absentee ballots expected to push the final total to between 9 and 10 million votes. The turnout figure listed below is for the recall portion of the ballot.

‘00 Pres. ‘03 Turnout 2003 Race Winner - Loser ‘03 Turnout Turnout as % of ‘00 SCHWARZENEGGER (R) elected - CALIFORNIA RECALL 8,777,408 10,965,856 80.0% Davis (D) loses recall ‘00 Pres. ‘02 Turnout 2002 Race Winner - Loser ‘02 Turnout Turnout as % of ‘00 South Dakota Senate T. JOHNSON (D) - Thune (R) 337,508 316,269 106.7% Minnesota Senate COLEMAN (R) - Mondale (D) 2,254,639 2,438,685 92.5% Florida Governor J. BUSH (R) - McBride (D) 5,100,581 5,963,110 85.5% Maryland Governor EHRLICH (R) - Townsend (D) 1,706,179 2,020,480 84.4% Massachusetts Governor ROMNEY (R) - O’Brien (D) 2,194,179 2,702,984 81.2% North Carolina Senate E. DOLE (R) - Bowles (D) 2,331,181 2,911,262 80.1% Missouri Senate TALENT (R) - J. Carnahan (D) 1,877,620 2,359,892 79.6% Tennessee Senate ALEXANDER (R) - Clement (D) 1,642,421 2,076,181 79.1% New Hampshire Senate SUNUNU (R) - Shaheen (D) 447,135 569,081 78.6% Georgia Senate CHAMBLISS (R) - Cleland (D) 2,030,608 2,596,645 78.2% Michigan Governor GRANHOLM (D) - Posthumus (R) 3,177,565 4,232,711 75.1% Illinois Governor BLAGOJEVICH (D) - J. Ryan (R) 3,538,891 4,742,123 74.6% Pennsylvania Governor RENDELL (D) - Fisher (R) 3,583,179 4,913,119 72.9% Texas Governor PERRY (R) - Sanchez (D) 4,553,987 6,407,637 71.1% Louisiana Senate (Runoff) LANDRIEU (D) - Terrell (R) 1,235,296 1,765,656 70.0% California Governor DAVIS (D) - Simon (R) 7,476,311 10,965,856 68.2% New York Governor PATAKI (R) - McCall (D) 4,579,078 6,821,999 67.1% New Jersey Senate LAUTENBERG (D) - Forrester (R) 2,112,604 3,187,226 66.3% The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2003 11 Against Recall In Favor of Recall

California Gubernatorial Recall Election

October 7, 2003 Recall Gov. Gray Davis (D): Counties Vote Percentage Carried Yes 4,856,265 55.3% 43 No 3,921,143 44.7% 15 Total Vote 8,777,408 Note: Results are based on nearly complete but unofficial returns as of Oct. 29. For the vote in the separate balloting to choose a successor for Gov. Davis, see results on p. 13.

The Vote in California’s Dozen Leading Counties

Choice to Succeed Davis: Recall Gov. Gray Davis: Schwarzenegger Bustamante McClintock Yes No (R) (D) (R) STATEWIDE 55% 45% 49% 32% 13% Democratic Registration Advantage Los Angeles 49% 51% 45% 38% 11% Santa Clara 42% 58% 39% 40% 13% Alameda 30% 70% 26% 53% 10% Sacramento 60% 40% 52% 27% 14% San Francisco 20% 80% 19% 63% 6% Contra Costa 43% 57% 39% 39% 15% Republican Registration Advantage Orange 73% 27% 64% 17% 16% San Diego 66% 34% 60% 24% 12% Riverside 70% 30% 61% 22% 14% San Bernardino 70% 30% 60% 22% 15% Ventura 63% 37% 52% 24% 20% Fresno 67% 33% 52% 28% 16% The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2003 12 (Continued from Page 11) through 1988). During this span, Republicans won the Reagan and Schwarzenegger: White House a half dozen times with more than 400 Two Boffo Political Debuts electoral votes. It gave rise to talk of a Republican The Austrian-born Arnold Schwarzenegger may not have the presidency in his future, but his debut in California politics this month was just as impressive as ‘lock’ on the presidency, Ronald Reagan’s in 1966. Both veterans of the silver screen easily won the Golden with California’s GOP tilt State governorship on their first try. Reagan unseated Democratic Gov. Pat Brown, back then a major reason carrying all but three of the state’s 58 counties. Schwarzenegger won the race such talk was possible. to succeed ousted Democratic Gov. Gray Davis, winning all but eight counties. In each case, opposition to the two Republicans was concentrated in the liberal San At the same time, the only Francisco Bay area. An asterisk (*) indicates an incumbent. The October 2003 recall results are based on nearly complete but unofficial returns. Democrats able to win the governorship of California 1966 Governor Vote Percentage Counties Carried had the surname Brown – first, Edmund G. “Pat” Ronald Reagan (R) 3,742,913 57.6% 55 Brown, who was ousted Pat Brown (D)* 2,749,174 42.3% 3 after two terms by Ronald Others 11,358 0.2% - Reagan in 1966, and then Total Vote 6,503,445 his son, Edmund G. “Jerry” Reagan Plurality 993,739 (15.3%) Brown Jr., who also served two terms before running 2003 Governor Recall Vote Percentage Counties Carried unsuccessfully for the Sen- ate in 1982. Republicans Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) 4,111,916 48.6% 50 held the governorship Cruz Bustamante (D) 2,670,914 31.6% 8 the rest of the time from Tom McClintock (R) 1,130,496 13.4% - the midst of World War II Others 551,877 6.5% - until Democrat Gary Davis’ Total Vote 8,465,203 election on the eve of the Schwarzenegger Plurality 1,441,002 (17.0%) millennium. There are two major fac- tors that made the Republicans’ long top of the ticket dominance in the Golden State possible. First, in the generation after World War II Republicans nominated a Californian to their national ticket with regularity – from Earl Warren (the party’s vice presidential nominee in 1948) through Ronald Reagan (the party’s standard-bearer in 1980 and 1984), with Richard Nixon (five times the GOP candidate for president or vice president) in between. Second, in the decades immediately after World War II, much of California’s burgeoning popula- tion was drawn from states to the east, with newcomers attracted to California by its pleasant cli- mate, vast space, and economic opportunity. Many of the new arrivals were white and politically conservative, making Southern California in general – and suburban Orange County in particular – a symbol of a rising Sun Belt conservatism.

But times have changed

ince Reagan, the only candidate on the Republican ticket with links to California has been SJack Kemp, the party’s vice presidential nominee in 1996. His political resume, however, was

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2003 13 primarily fashioned as a House member from New York and a cabinet secretary in Washington, D.C. Meanwhile, the demographics of California have been rapidly changing. Much of the recent pop- ulation influx has been from the south (Hispanics) and west (Asians), making California a major- ity-minority state and its politics decidedly more Democratic. To be sure, California’s struggling economy and huge budget deficit worked against the belea- guered Davis in the October recall vote, while Schwarzenegger’s celebrity and $20 million cam- paign chest played to the energetic Republican’s advantage. Still, the latter’s decisive victory showed that a Republican sounding fiscally conservative and socially liberal can win in the ‘new’ California - the California that is an integral part of Blue America. Exit polls showed that Schwarzenegger carried all age groups, all education levels, and won a plurality of votes among both men and women, even though stories of sexual harrassment involv- ing the buff movie star dominated the final days of the campaign. He also made inroads among two groups that the Republicans covet, independents and Hispan- ics. Schwarzenegger drew nearly one-third of the votes cast by the latter, and a winning 43% share of ballots cast by the former. In the actual vote count, he swamped his nearest rival, Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, by a margin of nearly 1.5 million in a tally that is nearly complete. He swept 50 of California’s 58 counties, including the nation’s most populous, Democratic-oriented Los Angeles. And for good measure, Schwarzenegger pulled roughly 200,000 more votes than the pro-Davis “no” line could muster on the recall side of the ballot. Even before the recall vote, the trend line for California Democrats had not been particularly good. While the state is still Democratic terrain, the party’s advantage over the Republicans in party registration has declined from more than 1.6 million on the eve of the 2000 election to less than 1.3 million this September. Yet the prime growth has not been among Republicans, but inde- pendents, whose numbers have grown in California to nearly 2.5 million. California’s next foray onto the national stage will take place March 2, when the Golden State will anchor a large-scale day of primary voting across the country that could decide the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination. And yes, it is an event that independents in California will be allowed to join Democrats in deciding the outcome.

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2003 14 Tentative 2004 Democratic Delegate Jan. and Feb. Events Selection Calendar and Delegate Totals March 2nd Events The tentative 2004 Democratic delegate-selection calendar and state-by-state delegate count are based on information Later Events or Unscheduled published by the Democratic National Committee in mid- September. The delegate count reflects the total number allocated to each state and territory - a combination of publicly elected “pledged” delegates, who are chosen to reflect the primary or caucus result, and “unpledged” superdelegates, a variety of party and elected officials who are free agents and not bound to reflect a state’s primary or caucus vote. Democrats in Guam have yet to set the date for their 2004 delegate-selection event. It is listed at the bottom of the chart as “Unscheduled.” The District of Columbia is scheduled to hold a non-binding primary Jan. 13, but D.C. Democrats have indicated that they will elect delegates through a caucus process in February.

Pledged Super- Total Pledged Super- Total Date State and System Delegates delegates Delegates Date State and System Delegates delegates Delegates Jan. 19 Iowa Caucuses 45 11 56 March 2 Rhode Island Primary 21 11 32 Jan. 27 New Hampshire Primary 22 5 27 Vermont Primary 15 7 22 Feb. 3 Arizona Primary 55 9 64 March 8 American Samoa Caucuses 336 Delaware Primary 15 8 23 March 9 Florida Primary 177 24 201 Missouri Primary 74 13 87 Louisiana Primary 60 11 71 New Mexico Caucuses 26 11 37 Mississippi Primary 33 9 42 North Dakota Caucuses 14 8 22 Texas Primary & Caucuses 195 37 232 Oklahoma Primary 40 7 47 March 13 Kansas Caucuses 33 8 41 South Carolina Primary 45 10 55 March 16 Illinois Primary 156 30 186 Feb. 6-9 Democrats Abroad Caucuses 7 2 9 March 20 Alaska Caucuses 13 5 18 Feb. 7 Michigan Caucuses 128 24 152 Wyoming Caucuses 13 6 19 Washington Caucuses 76 19 95 April 13 Colorado Caucuses 53 10 63 Feb. 8 Maine Caucuses 24 11 35 April 17 Virgin Island Caucuses 3 3 6 Feb. 10 Tennessee Primary 69 16 85 April 27 Pennsylvania Primary 151 27 178 Virginia Primary 82 14 96 May 4 Indiana Primary 67 14 81 Feb. 14 Nevada Caucuses 24 8 32 North Carolina Primary 90 17 107 District of Columbia Caucuses 16 22 38 May 11 Nebraska Primary 24 7 31 Feb. 17 Wisconsin Primary 72 15 87 West Virginia Primary 28 11 39 Feb. 24 Hawaii Caucuses 20 9 29 May 18 Arkansas Primary 36 11 47 Idaho Caucuses 18 5 23 Kentucky Primary 49 8 57 Utah Primary 23 6 29 Oregon Primary 46 12 58 March 2 California Primary 370 71 441 June 1 Alabama Primary 54 8 62 Connecticut Primary 49 12 61 South Dakota Primary 14 7 21 Georgia Primary 86 16 102 June 6 Puerto Rico Caucuses 51 7 58 Maryland Primary 69 29 98 June 8 Montana Primary 15 6 21 Massachusetts Primary 93 28 121 New Jersey Primary 107 21 128 Minnesota Caucuses 72 14 86 Unscheduled Guam Caucuses 3 1 4 New York Primary 236 48 284 Ohio Primary 140 19 159 Unassigned 0 6 6 TOTAL DELEGATE VOTES 3,520 797 4,317 Needed to Nominate 2,159

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2003 15 Other 2003 Elections: Gubernatorial, House Candidates at the Ballot Box

The gubernatorial elections next month in Kentucky and Mississippi feature middle-aged white males with deep roots in their state’s politics. But Louisiana will offer something different. The runoff Nov. 15 will pit Republican Bobby Jindal, a 32-year-old former Rhodes Scholar whose parents are immigrants from India, against Democrat Kathleen Blanco, Louisiana’s veteran lieutenant governor who is bidding to become the state’s first female governor. This is Jindal’s first race for elective office, although he has already served in leadership positions in health policy in both the state and national government. With the backing of outgoing GOP Gov. Mike Foster, Jindal finished nearly 200,000 votes ahead of Blanco in Louisiana’s unique open primary vote Oct. 4. But his 33% share of the total vote was far short of the majority needed to win the election outright. The top three Democrats combined to garner nearly half the vote, with Blanco’s strong base in southern Louisiana’s Acadiana region enough to put her in the runoff with 18% of the vote. The two other leading Democrats, state Attorney General Richard Ieyoub and wealthy former Rep. Claude “ Buddy” Leach, geared much of their campaigns to winning the support from two basic Democratic constituencies, blacks and union members, but ended up splitting the party’s base vote. This year’s gubernatorial campaign in Louisiana is starting out as the opposite of the Bayou State’s high-profile Senate race last year, when Democratic incumbent Mary Landrieu finished almost a quarter million votes ahead in the open primary. Her margin was trimmed to barely 40,000 votes in the runoff.

The following results from this year’s gubernatorial primaries and special House elections are based on nearly complete but unofficial returns. All candidates are listed that drew at least 10% of the vote. Winners are indicated in bold type. The results of a runoff are indicated in parentheses. Percentages do not always add to 100 due to rounding.

GUBERNATORIAL PRIMARIES Kentucky (May 20) - OPEN SEAT - Incumbent: Paul Patton (D) DEMOCRATS REPUBLICANS Candidates Occupation % Candidates Occupation % Ben Chandler Ky. Attorney General 50% Ernie Fletcher U.S. Representative 57% Ex-Jefferson Co. Judge- Jody Richards State House speaker 47% Rebecca Jackson Executive 28% Other - 3% Steve Nunn State Representative 13% Other - 1% (Total Vote - 285,149) (Total Vote - 158,528) Mississippi (August 5) Candidates Occupation % Candidates Occupation % Ronnie Musgrove Incumbent 75% Haley Barbour Ex-RNC Chairman 82% Others - 25% Mitch Tyner Lawyer 18% (Total Vote - 425,087) (Total Vote - 152,376) Louisiana (October 4) - OPEN SEAT - Incumbent: Mike Foster (R) All-Party Primary Candidates Occupation % Piyush “Bobby”Jindal Ex-state health (R) secretary 33% Kathleen Blanco (D) Lt. Governor 18% Richard Leyoub (D) La. Attorney General 16% Runoff November 15: Bobby Jindal (R) vs. Kathleen Blanco (D) Claude “Buddy” Leach (D) Ex-U.S. Representative 14% Others - 19% (Total Vote - 1,362,530)

The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2003 16 SPECIAL HOUSE ELECTIONS Hawaii 2nd (January 4) Texas 19th (May 3, Runoff June 3) OPEN SEAT - Previously held by Patsy Mink (D) OPEN SEAT - Previously held by Larry Combest (R) All-Party Election All-Party Primary (and Runoff) Candidates Occupation % Candidates Occupation % Ed Case (D) Incumbent 44% Randy Neugebauer (R) Land developer 22% (51%) Matt Matsunaga (D) Ex-State Senator 30% Mike Conaway (R) Accountant 21% (49%) Others - 26% Carl Isett (R) State Representative 19% David Langston (R) Ex-Lubbock Mayor 14% Others - 24% (Total Vote - 75,574) (Total Vote - 58,369; Runoff - 56,505)

The Changing Composition of the 108th Congress ... and the Governorships

Changes in the composition of the membership of the 108th Congress have been few and far between. But that has not been the case of late in the nation’s governorships. In September, Indiana’s 73-year-old Frank O’Bannon died after suffering a stroke and was succeeded by Lt. Gov. Joe Kernan. In October, California’s Gray Davis lost a recall election and will be replaced by movie actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, who fi nished fi rst among the scores of candidates running to succeed Davis. And in November, governorships will be decided in a trio of Southern states - Kentucky, Louisiana and Mississippi - with incumbents retiring in Kentucky and Louisiana. There also will be a change upcoming in the governorship of Utah, with the Senate confi rmation Oct. 28 of Republican Gov. Michael Leavitt to head the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Leavitt was nominated by President Bush to succeed Christine Todd Whitman, herself the governor of New Jersey before being tapped for the federal post.

Date and Event House of Representatives Senate

R D Ind. Vac. R D Ind. Vac. Nov. 5, 2002 - ELECTION 229 205 1 51 48 1

Sept. 28, 2002 - Rep. Patsy T. Mink (D-Hawaii 2) dies but is elected posthumously Nov. 5 229 204 1 1

Dec. 2, 2002 - Sen. Frank Murkowski (R-Alaska) resigns to become governor of Alaska 50 48 1 1 Dec. 20, 2002 - Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) appointed to fi ll her father’s Senate seat 51 48 1 Jan. 4, 2003 - Special election in Hawaii 2nd won by Ed Case (D) 229 205 1 May 31, 2003 - Rep. Larry Combest (R-Texas 19) resigns 228 205 1 1 June 3, 2003 - Special election in Texas 19th won by Randy Neugebauer (R) 229 205 1 Date and Event And the Governorships... R DInd. Nov. 5, 2002 - ELECTION 26 24 Sept. 13, 2003 - Gov. Frank O’Bannon (D-Ind.) dies. Lt. Gov. Joe Kernan (D) succeeds him. 26 24 Oct. 7, 2003 - Gov. Gray Davis (D-Calif.) loses recall election. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) elected to 27 23 replace him.

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