R AMERICAED AND BLUE REDUX The Rhodes Cook Letter October 2003 The Rhodes Cook Letter OCTOBER 2003 / VOL. 4, NO. 5 Contents Bush, The Democrats and ‘Red’ and ‘Blue’ America . 3 Chart: Red & Blue America Summary . 4 Chart: Red & Blue USA ‘02 Results, ‘04 Action . 5 Map & Chart: Bush and the Map, 2000-04 . 8 Chart: The President’s Party at Midterm and Presidential Elections that Follow . 9 Chart & Graph: GOP Gains Separation in ‘02 House Vote . 10 California: The Cornerstone of ‘Blue’ America . 11 Chart : Turnout Comparison: The Recall vs. High Profile Races of ‘02 . 11 Map & Chart: The Recall Vote by County. 12 Chart: Ronnie & Arnold: Boffo Political Debuts . 13 Tentative 2004 Democratic Primary Calendar and Delegate Count . 15 Other 2003 Elections: Gubernatorial, House Candidates at Ballot Box . 16 Changing Composition of the 108th Congress... And Governorships . 17 Subscription Page. 18 Looking Ahead: The next issue in December will focus on the fast-approaching presi- dential nominating season, the state of the Democratic campaign, and the varied terrain of primaries and caucuses the party’s candidates will face. The Rhodes Cook Letter is published by Rhodes Cook. Web: tion for six issues is $99. Make check payable to “The Rhodes rhodescook.com. E-mail: [email protected]. Design by Cook Letter” and send it, along with your e-mail address, to Landslide Design, Rockville, MD. “The Rhodes Cook Letter” is P.O. Box 574, Annandale, VA. 22003. See the last page of this being published on a bimonthly basis in 2003. A subscrip- newsletter for a subscription form. All contents are copyrighted ©2003 Rhodes Cook. Use of the material is welcome with attribution, although the author retains full copyright over the material contained herein. The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2003 2 Bush, The Democrats, and ‘Red’ and ‘Blue’ America hile the struggling economy or the situation in Iraq might ultimately undermine President WGeorge W. Bush’s bid for a second term, he is approaching his reelection campaign as arguably the most successful party-building president since Franklin D. Roosevelt. Certainly, that is the case when measured in terms of Republican officeholders. FDR and Bush are the only presidents since the Depression whose parties gained House and Senate seats in their first midterm election. Both the Democrats under Roosevelt in 1934, and the Republicans under Bush in 2002, performed the rare political feat of solidifying their majorities on both sides of Capitol Hill in midterm voting. The GOP also emerged from last year’s election with more state legislative seats than the Demo- crats for the first time in a half century. And while the number of Republican governors has declined from 29 after the 2000 election to 27 now, Arnold Schwarzenegger’s recent victory in the California recall election gives the GOP control of the governorships in the four most populous states (California, Texas, New York and Florida). All of this compares quite favorably to Bush’s recent predecessors. Three years into Bill Clinton’s presidency, the Democrats had already lost their majorities on both sides of Capitol Hill. So had the Republicans at a similar point of Dwight D. Eisenhower’s presidency. As Jimmy Carter approached reelection, Democratic House and Senate majorities were on the decline, while John F. Kennedy moved toward the fateful November of 1963 with an increased Democratic majority in the Senate but a slightly smaller Democratic House majority than when he first took office. And the last three Republican presidents before Bush – Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan and George Bush – all approached reelection saddled with Democratic majorities in the House of Representa- tives. Nixon and the elder Bush had to deal with a Democratic-controlled Senate as well. 2002: ‘Red’ America Trumps ‘Blue’ America epublicans succeeded in the 2002 election by doing better on their part of the national elec- Rtoral map than Democrats did on theirs. It is a map that has taken on a life of its own since the closely fought 2000 election, and reflects the concept of a nation evenly divided between ‘red’ and ‘blue’ America. For whatever reason, red is the color often associated with Republicans on election maps, with blue the color used to depict the Democrats. Thirty states comprise Red America, the states carried by Bush in the last presidential election. They are mainly in the South, the Plains, and the Mountain West. Twenty states make up Blue America. They are the states carried by Democrat Al Gore and are mainly in the Northeast, the Pacific West, the industrial Midwest and the more agrarian Upper Midwest. Altogether, Republican candidates won a healthy 78% of the Senate elections in Red America last fall, 74% of the gubernatorial elections, and 63% of the House elections. The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2003 3 Meanwhile, Democrats won GOP’s 2002 Victory Fashioned in ‘Red’ America just 64% of the Senate elec- tions in Blue America, 58% of One of the enduring legacies of the 2000 presidential election is the concept of the House elections, and 53% ‘Red’ and ‘Blue’ America - red being the 30 states carried by Republican George W. of the gubernatorial races. Bush and blue being the 20 states, plus the District of Columbia, won by Democrat Al Gore. The Bush states are largely in the South and America’s rural heartland. The To be sure, Democrats Gore states are clustered in the industrial Frost Belt and along the Pacific Coast. Taken scored some notable ‘against together, Red and Blue America produced an almost even division of the electoral vote in the last presidential election. the grain’ victories in guber- natorial and Senate races last Republicans basically won the 2002 midterm elections by running better in gubernatorial, Senate and House races in ‘red’ states than Democrats did in the ‘blue’ fall, holding hotly contested ones. In all three categories, the GOP won a higher share of the races in states carried Senate seats in Louisiana and by Bush in 2000 than Democrats won in the states carried by Gore. South Dakota, while picking The tally of House members in Blue America includes one independent, Vermont’s up a Senate seat in Arkansas Bernard Sanders. and governorships in such seemingly hostile territory as RED AMERICA Seats Won % of races Arizona, Kansas, Oklahoma Total Reps. Dems. won by Reps. and Wyoming. Democrats even picked up the gover- Governors 19 14 5 74% norship in Tennessee, which Senators 23 18 5 78% had denied its electoral votes House 218 138 80 63% BLUE AMERICA Seats Won two years earlier to native % of races son Al Gore – 11 electoral Total Reps. Dems. won by Dems. votes that would have given Governors 17 8 9 53% Gore the presidency. Senators 11 4 7 64% But Republicans made deep- House 217 91 125 58% er inroads into Blue America last year than Democrats did into Red America. Case in point, the House races. While the GOP won 91 of the 217 House seats in the Gore states last year, Democrats won only 80 of 218 seats in the Bush states. The resulting 58-seat advantage that the GOP posted in Red America easily offset the 34-seat edge that Democrats had in Blue America. Republicans also picked up a critical Senate seat in Minnesota, and won six governorships in states from Massachusetts to Hawaii that Gore had carried two years earlier by at least 15 percentage points. For good measure, the GOP picked up the Vermont governorship vacated by Democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean. Party Building Can Beget Polarization ush’s White House has played an integral role in the Republicans’ recent success, both in Brecruiting candidates and helping to raise tens of millions of dollars to fund their campaigns. Bush has exhibited a degree of intraparty involvement that goes far beyond the level of most of his recent predecessors in the Oval Office. And so far, it has paid off. But the flip side of efficient, hard-charging party building can be polarization, something the Ameri- can electorate is displaying these days in spades. A Gallup Poll taken earlier this month indicated that fully three-quarters of all registered voters have already made up their mind whether they will vote for or against Bush next November. And they are (Continued on Page 6) The Rhodes Cook Letter • October 2003 4 2002 Election Results in Red and Blue America... And What’s Up in 2004 Republicans are indicated below in bold type; Democrats in regular type. An asterisk (*) indicates the gubernational election will be held in 2003. Where a presidential candidate’s margin of victory was less than 1 percentage point in 2000, it is given in tenths of a point, or in the case of Florida, hundredths of a percentage point. RED AMERICA (States carried by Bush in 2000) 2000 Pres. 2002 Election Winners Up in 2004 Winner State(and margin) Gov. Sen. House R D I Governors Senators UUtahtah BBushush bbyy 441%1% - - R 2 1 MMichaelichael LeavittLeavitt ((R)R) RRobertobert BBennettennett ((R)R) IIdahodaho BBushush bbyy 440%0% R R R 2 0 - MMichaelichael CCraporapo ((R)R) WWyomingyoming BBushush bbyy 440%0% D R R 1 0 - - AAlaskalaska BBushush bbyy 331%1% R R R 1 0 - LLisaisa MMurkowskiurkowski ((R)R) NNebraskaebraska BBushush bbyy 229%9% R R R 3 0 - - NNorthorth DDakotaakota BBushush bbyy 228%8% - - D 0 1 JJohnohn HoevenHoeven (R)(R) BByronyron DDorganorgan ((D)D) MMontanaontana BBushush bbyy 225%5% - D R 1 0 JJudyudy MMartzartz ((R)R) - SSouthouth DDakotaakota BBushush bbyy 223%3% R D R 1 0 - TTomom DDaschleaschle ((D)D) OOklahomaklahoma BBushush bbyy 222%2% D R R 4 1 - DDonon NNicklesickles ((R)R)