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Investment Strategy Report

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Investment Strategy Report Investment Strategy Report July 2021 Table of Contents Slide No. I 4QFY21 Earnings Review & Update on Indian Economy 3-9 II Model Portfolios & Returns – Direct Equity 10-12 III Mutual Fund Recommendations 13-16 A Recommended Equity Mutual Funds 14 B Recommended Debt Mutual Funds 15 C Other Relevant Categories 16 IV Model Portfolios & Returns – Mutual Funds 17-22 V Non-MF Product Recommendations 23-41 A PMS 23-35 C Unlisted Shares 36 D Bonds 37-39 Disclaimer 40 2 4QFY21 Earnings Review & Update on Indian Economy 3 4QFY21 – Improved demand offset margin pressure Sales growth accelerated in 4Q, even excluding commodity companies EBITDA margins moderated for a second consecutive quarter in 4Q EBITDA growth accelerated on the back of the commodities and utilities sectors Thus the profitability has started to show improvement Note: IIFL Institutional Research 4 4QFY21 – Balance sheet deleveraging reduced interest burden Interest burden edging down, mainly aided by deleveraging of balance sheets Gross debt declined across most sectors in 2HFY21 Debt burden has reduced in 2HFY21 The high base of 4QFY20 also weighed on the YoY growth in 4QFY21 Note: IIFL Institutional Research 5 INR facing depreciation pressure, vulnerable to external factors CAD widened to ~1% of GDP in 4QFY21 Exports growth continues to trail that of EMs, by a wide margin Both, FII and FDI flows, moderated in 4QFY21 The dollar index started edging up partly due to slightly hawkish US Fed Note: IIFL Institutional Research 6 However, steady capital inflows and FX reserves to support INR Remittances to India have been fairly resilient to the Covid shock Net services exports actually improved by ~4% YoY in FY21 FX reserves jumped by ~50% on steady capital flows and narrowing CAD FX reserves exceed India’s external debt Note: IIFL Institutional Research 7 Overall the Indian economy is gaining momentum amid inflation risk Commodity price rally generally drives a pick-up in investments Electricity consumption growth has seen an uptick E-way bill generation, too, has been increasing since the last few weeks RBI’s forecast of CPI for FY22 faces upside risks Note: IIFL Institutional Research 8 Real Estate Sector: Strong finish to FY21; FY22 outlook remains healthy Growth in Residential bookings – Strong industry‐wide growth in 4Q Top developers − Market share elevated at 24% for FY21 vs 13% in FY20 Sector fundamentals improving – Debt levels declining, bookings value up Occupancy for Commercial/REITs has sharply declined over FY21 Note: IIFL Institutional Research 9 Model Portfolios – Direct Equity 10 Model Portfolios – Direct Equity Investment Objective & Portfolio Strategy - Aggressive portfolio targets above market returns using high beta and midcap ideas. Moderate portfolio uses Multi-cap approach to reduce volatility. Conservative portfolio is built with objectives of less volatility and capital protection. Aggressive Allocation (%) Moderate Allocation (%) Conservative Allocation (%) Axis Bank 8 ABB India 8 NHPC 8 Gujarat Gas 7 ICICI Bank 7 Gujarat State Petronet 7 Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals 8 Infosys 7 TCS 8 ICICI Bank 8 HCL Technologies 8 Hindustan Unilever 7 Persistent Systems 9 Dr. Reddy's Labs 7 Hero Motocorp 8 Larsen & Toubro 8 ICICI Lombard General 8 HDFC Bank 9 SRF 9 Cadila Healthcare 8 ICICI Lombard General 9 Deepak Nitrite 8 Bharat Electronics 7 ITC 7 SBI Life Insurance Company 9 Eicher Motors 8 Dr. Reddy's Labs 7 Cummins India 9 Reliance Industries 7 Dabur India 8 Sudarshan Chemicals 8 Ashok Leyland 8 Reliance Industries 7 Greenply Industries 9 ACC 9 Cipla 8 -- -- Emami 8 Larsen & Tourbo 7 Total 100 Total 100 Total 100 Risk Reward Statistics Risk Reward Statistics Risk Reward Statistics Portfolio Beta 0.89 Portfolio Beta 0.88 Portfolio Beta 0.68 Sharpe Ratio 2.06 Sharpe Ratio 1.75 Sharpe Ratio 0.95 Portfolio Std. Deviation 36.67 Portfolio Std. Deviation 32.86 Portfolio Std. Deviation 27.15 11 Model Portfolio - Returns Absolute % Returns CAGR % Return Valuation Multiples (12m Forward) Portfolios/Index 6 M 1 Yr 2 Yr Since Inception P/E P/BV Aggressive 42.1 110.3 34.2 22.9 30.7 5.4 Moderate 21.9 66.3 32.1 20.5 37.3 5.5 Conservative 6.3 33.7 14.3 9.7 27.9 5.6 NIFTY 50 12.4 52.6 15.5 14.0 20.4 3.0 Aggressive NIFTY Moderate NIFTY Conservative NIFTY 245 240 180 170 225 220 160 200 205 150 185 180 140 165 160 130 120 145 140 110 125 120 100 105 100 90 85 80 80 Jun-17 Jun-21 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Oct-18 Oct-17 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Oct-17 Oct-18 Oct-19 Oct-20 Feb-20 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-21 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21 Feb-17 Feb-18 Feb-19 Feb-20 Feb-21 Source: ACE Equity, IIFL Research, returns as on Jun 30, 2021 12 Mutual Fund Recommendations 13 Recommended Equity Mutual Funds Returns (%) Asset Allocation (%) Recommended Scheme Name AUM (₹cr) 3 Y 5 Y 10 Y Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Debt Horizon Large Cap / Large & Mid Cap Mirae Asset Large Cap Fund(G) 25,721 15.3 16.0 15.5 86.2 8.9 2.6 2.4 3+ Years Canara Rob Bluechip Equity Fund(G) 2,886 17.9 16.8 13.6 88.5 7.0 -- 4.5 3+ years Kotak Equity Opp. Fund(G) 6,362 16.9 16.0 14.6 53.9 36.5 7.0 2.6 5+ Years Focused Axis Focused 25 Fund(G) 16,540 14.5 17.5 -- 84.7 6.6 -- 8.8 5+ Years IIFL Focused Equity Fund(G) 1,823 22.0 18.6 -- 70.7 15.8 9.3 4.2 5+ Years Flexi Cap Aditya Birla SL Flexi Cap Fund(G) 14,144 14.6 15.7 15.2 62.3 24.1 8.8 4.8 5+ Years Tata Flexi Cap Fund(G) 1,981 -- -- -- 71.5 19.4 4.6 4.5 5+ Years HDFC Flexi Cap Fund(G) 25,232 14.4 14.0 12.2 78.8 9.8 8.7 2.7 5+ Years Value HDFC Capital Builder Value Fund(G) 4,826 10.1 13.0 13.1 73.2 10.1 13.5 3.2 5+ Years UTI Value Opp. Fund(G) 5,917 15.4 14.2 12.8 69.3 18.6 9.4 2.7 5+ Years Mid Cap & Small Cap Kotak Emerging Equity Fund(G) 12,463 19.7 17.6 19.3 14.1 64.8 18.5 2.6 7+ Years L&T Midcap Fund(G) 6,587 12.2 15.5 17.3 7.0 73.4 18.3 1.4 7+ Years DSP Midcap Cap Fund(G) 12,162 17.7 16.1 17.2 16.3 67.4 11.8 4.5 7+ years Nippon India Small Cap Fund(G) 14,318 20.2 21.2 22.2 5.9 20.8 69.0 4.4 7+ years Note: Returns are CAGR; AUM as on May 2021; Returns as on Jun 30, 2021, Debt includes other investments Source: ACE 14 Recommended Debt Mutual Funds Returns (%) Rating Profile (%) Recommended Scheme Name AUM (₹cr) YTM(%) 1 Y 3 Y 5 Y AAA AA Sovereign Horizon Overnight / Liquid HDFC Liquid Fund(G) 51,046 3.1 5.3 5.9 64.0 -- 33.9 3.5 3+ Months ICICI Pru Liquid Fund(G) 36,601 3.2 5.4 6.0 51.1 -- 38.6 3.5 3+ Months Money Market / Low Duration ICICI Pru Money Market Fund(G) 14,104 4.1 6.6 6.8 68.9 -- 25.7 3.8 12+ Months Axis Treasury Advantage Fund(G) 10,158 4.7 7.3 7.1 59.1 12.0 22.4 4.2 12+ Months IDFC Low Duration Fund(G) 9,575 4.1 7.0 7.1 77.6 -- 10.4 3.9 12+ Months Corporate Bond / Short Term Axis Corp Debt Fund(G) 4,566 6.3 7.9 -- 73.4 -- 15.6 4.9 36+ Months IDFC Corp Bond Fund(G) 20,978 5.5 8.5 7.9 73.2 -- 24.1 5.0 36+ Months SBI Short Term Debt Fund(G) 24,127 4.4 8.0 7.4 39.7 6.6 43.7 4.8 36+ Months Credit Risk HDFC Credit Risk Fund(G) 7,631 10.5 9.1 8.3 23.4 52.2 8.3 7.0 36+ Months ICICI Pru Credit Risk Fund(G) 7,443 8.8 8.8 8.4 5.3 56.1 11.1 7.2 36+ Months Roll Down Funds (Long Term) Axis Dynamic Bond Fund(G) 1,989 5.1 9.9 8.4 67.4 -- 27.8 6.6 8-10 years L&T Triple Ace Bond Fund(G) 7,911 4.5 10.1 8.0 68.4 -- 27.4 6.4 8-10 years Nippon India Dynamic Bond(G) 2,717 3.9 8.3 7.3 -- -- 92.5 6.5 8-10 years Note: Returns are CAGR; AUM as on May 2021; Returns as on Jun 30, 2021 Source: ACE 15 Other Relevant Categories Returns (%) Asset Allocation (%) Recommended Scheme Name AUM (₹cr) 3 Y 5 Y 10 Y Large Cap Mid Cap Small Cap Horizon Equity Linked Savings Schemes (ELSS) Mirae Asset Tax Saver Fund(G) 7,940 20.5 21.1 -- 68.9 17.7 9.2 5 Years Canara Robeco Equity Tax Saver Fund(G) 2,227 20.3 17.9 14.7 77.2 18.6 1.7 5 Years DSP Tax Saver Fund(G) 8,747 18.6 16.5 15.9 67.7 20.8 10.6 5 Years Sectoral / Tactical Themes ICICI Prudential Manufacture in India Fund(G) 615 -- -- -- 59.1 15.3 20.9 8-10 Years Nippon India Power & Infra Fund(G) 1,438 10.8 12.5 7.1 56.4 17.5 24.1 8-10 Years DSP Healthcare Fund(G) 1,311 -- -- -- 46.5 28.2 11.0 8-10 Years Invesco India PSU Equity Fund(G) 273 13.7 11.8 8.9 54.4 19.8 19.0 8-10 Years Hybrid / Arbitrage ICICI Prudential Balanced Advantage Fund(G) 32,188 11.5 11.0 12.5 59.9 5.9 1.3 3+ Years DSP Dynamic Asset Allocation Fund(G) 3,562 10.5 9.4 -- 54.0 11.0 0.7 3+ years Edelweiss Arbitrage Fund(G) 5,503 5.2 5.6 -- 44.7 22.6 1.5 3+ Months Nippon India Arbitrage Fund(G) 11,792 5.2 5.7 7.1 55.2 13.4 1.3 3+ Months Equity Index Funds / Equity ETFs ICICI Prudential Nifty Next 50 Index Fund(G) 1,230 10.6 13.5 13.0 91.1 8.9 -- 5 Years UTI Nifty Index Fund(G) 4,022 14.6 14.7 11.5 100.0 -- -- 5 Years SBI-ETF Sensex 46,539 14.3 14.2 -- 99.8 -- -- 5 Years ICICI Pru Nifty ETF 2,711 14.8 14.9 -- 99.8 -- -- 5 Years Note: Returns are CAGR; AUM as on May 2021; Returns as on Jun 30, 2021 Source: ACE 16 Model Portfolios – Mutual Fund Very Conservative Risk Profile The objective of the strategy is to generate risk-adjusted capital appreciation for investors from a portfolio of debt mutual fund schemes.
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