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BSE LTD IIFL Investment Ideas IPO Note BSE LTD IIFL Investment Ideas Issue Opens: 23rd Jan 2017 Issue Closes: 25th Jan 2017 Price Band: Rs.805-806 Subscribe Company Overview BSE Ltd is India’s largest and world’s 10th largest exchange in terms of market capitalization (~US$1.7 tn) of the companies listed on its platform. It also has the maximum number of listed companies on its platform. Its income comes Issue Details from four streams i.e. securities services (~37%), services to corporate Face Value: Rs. 2 (~24%), data dissemination fees (~3%) and income from investment & Public Issue 1.54 cr Shares deposits and other income (~35%). Its consolidated revenues grew ~11% Price Band : Rs.805-806 CAGR over FY14-FY16. In FY16, BSE had an average of ~28.5 cr orders and Issue Size ~Rs 1241 cr ~0.155 cr trades in equity shares per day, making it as the 12th most active 100% Book Issue Type: building exchange in the world. Post Issue Market Cap: ~Rs 4,400Cr Objective of the offer % Pre IPO Public 55% It is an offer for sale (OFS) by existing share holders and the offer would act Trading Members & as a route to monetize assets for some of existing investors. As per regulatory 45% Associates requirement BSE Ltd will only be listed on National Stock Exchange (NSE). Source: www.bseindia.com,RHP Share Reservation % of Issue Our view BSE Ltd has an integrated business model and has presence across segments QIB 50 NII 15 from trading and listing of securities to clearing and settlement. Its BSE StAR Retail 35 MF and BSE SME products are market leaders. The upcoming innovative products like BSE Hi-Tech, index based products, an exchange in precious Company metals, gems, a consumer sentiment index and a high-frequency data on Management unemployment will incrementally improve its market share. Improving Mr. Sudhakar Rao Chairman market share in certain products and improving market activities improved its Mr. Ashishkumar MD & CEO Chauhan annualised FY17 revenues (based on H1FY17) by ~16.5% yoy. At the upper end of the issue price band, i.e. Rs.806, the stock is available at a P/E multiple Issue Manager of 20.6x on FY17E annualized earnings as compared to MCX, which is trading Edelweiss Capital, at P/E of ~40x. We believe the valuation demanded by the company is Axis Capital, Jefferies, Nomura Int., Motilal justified and hence recommend a ‘SUBSCRIBE’ to the issue. Oswal, SBI Capital BRLMs Mkts and SMC Capital Financial Summary Karvy Computershare Rs Cr. FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E* Registrar Pvt. Ltd Total Revenue 530 625 658 383 EBITDA 287 305 301 193 EBITDA Margin % 54 49 46 50 Net profit 135 130 123 105 P/E (x) 30.9 33.3 35.3 41.2 P/BV (x) 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 ROE (%) 6.7 6.2 6.5 4.9 ROCE (%) 9.7 8.7 8.2 5.5 Analyst-Saurabh Rathi Source: Company, IIFL research [email protected] * Annualised FY17 numbers based on H1FY17 actual numbers January 19 2017 IIFL Investment Ideas Key Positives Market Leader in key products BSE is Asia’s first stock exchange and being the oldest has helped it to gain brand recognition over decades. The strong brand helped the company to attract large number of companies to get listed besides having significant trading volumes. The volatility in market, stock exchange volumes, no of listings and depository services are linked with country’s economic activity. Since, India is becoming an attractive investment destination largely led by reform oriented government, we are sanguine about the future outlook of the company. Taking into account the client’s requirement and increased focus on mutual funds, the company has developed its own branded products named BSE StAR and BSE SME. Both these products have seen good acceptance with more than two third market share. In fact, BSE StAR MF is the largest distributor of mutual fund schemes in India with ~6303 MF schemes. Integrated business model to improve revenues BSE follows an integrated business model which includes companies listing & trading, clearing & settlement of companies listed & traded on the BSE, depository services, data dissemination services, IT services & solutions, and training. This model aids it to improve revenue as it support the market participants throughout the entire life-cycle of a trade which lowers the cost for market participants. BSE has recently developed the GIFT City international exchange, which will help it in entering global financial markets. Also, it is developing new product BSE Hi-Tech, a platform for listing and trading in shares of young & fast growing companies. The upcoming product offerings include index based products, an exchange in precious metals, gems and other related goods, a consumer sentiment index and a high- frequency data on unemployment in India. These initiatives would aid it to attract market participants and hence improve its revenues in years ahead. Sensitivity Analysis We have done a sensitivity analysis under which we have correlated change in couple of important parameters and its impact on FY17E annualised EPS. 1) % change in avg. no. of trades in BSE per day and its impact on FY17E annualised EPS 2) % change in avg. securities service charges/trade for BSE and its impact on FY17E annualised EPS Base case parameters Parameters FY17 Avg. no. of trades per day in cr. 0.33 Avg. securities services charges/ trade Rs 910 Impact of % change in securities service charges on FY17E EPS % change in securities service charges Sensitivity 10% 20% FY17 Annualised EPS Rs -10% -20% FY17E EPS Rs 44.7 50.2 38.4 33.5 27.9 Impact of % change in avg. no. of trades per day on FY17E EPS % change in avg. no. of trades per day Sensitivity 10% 20% FY17 Annualised EPS Rs -10% -20% FY17E EPS Rs 43 47.6 38.4 33.8 29.1 IIFL Investment Ideas Key Risks Fall in market activity will impact company’s business adversely Adverse macro economic factors could substantially impact BSE’s trading volumes and listing activities. Also depository fees for shares are calculated based on their listed companies market price, so any prolong correction in stock market will lead to lower income from this division. Financial crisis, can negatively impact the company’s business The company’s operations and investments are directly correlated with the health of the Indian as well as world economy, so any financial crisis would substantially hamper the company’s operations and financials. Disclaimer IIFL Investment Ideas Recommendation Parameters for Fundamental Reports: Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made regarding future performance. Information, opinions and estimates contained in this report reflect a judgment of its original date of publication by IIFL and are subject to change without notice. The price, value of and income from any of the securities or financial instruments mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. The value of securities and financial instruments is subject to exchange rate fluctuation that may have a positive or adverse effect on the price or income of such securities or financial instruments. The Report also includes analysis and views of our research team. The Report is purely for information purposes and does not construe to be investment recommendation/advice or an offer or solicitation of an offer to buy/sell any securities. The opinions expressed in the Report are our current opinions as of the date of the Report and may be subject to change from time to time without notice. IIL or any persons connected with it do not accept any liability arising from the use of this document. Investors should not solely rely on the information contained in this Report and must make investment decisions based on their own investment objectives, judgment, risk profile and financial position. The recipients of this Report may take professional advice before acting on this information. IIL has other business segments / divisions with independent research teams separated by 'Chinese walls' catering to different sets of customers having varying objectives, risk profiles, investment horizon, etc and therefore, may at times have, different and contrary views on stocks, sectors and markets. Please refer to http://www.indiainfoline.com/research/disclaimer for additional recommendation parameter, analyst disclaimer and other disclosures. Published in 2017. © India Infoline Ltd 2017 India Infoline Limited (Formerly “India Infoline Distribution Company Limited”), CIN No.: U99999MH1996PLC132983, Corporate Office – IIFL Centre, Kamala City, Senapati Bapat Marg, Lower Parel, Mumbai – 400013 Tel: (91-22) 4249 9000 .Fax: (91-22) 40609049, Regd. Office – IIFL House, Sun Infotech Park, Road No. 16V, Plot No. B-23, MIDC, Thane Industrial Area, Wagle Estate, Thane – 400604 Tel: (91-22) 25806650. Fax: (91-22) 25806654 E-mail: [email protected] Website: www.indiainfoline.com, Refer www.indiainfoline.com for detail of Associates. National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. SEBI Regn. No. : INB231097537/ INF231097537/ INE231097537, Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd. SEBI Regn. No.:INB011097533/ INF011097533/ BSE-Currency, MCX Stock Exchange Ltd. SEBI Regn. No.: INB261097530/ INF261097530/ INE261097537, PMS SEBI Regn. No. INP000002213, IA SEBI Regn. No. INA000000623, SEBI RA Regn.:- INH000000248. For Research related queries, write at [email protected] For Sales and Account related information, write to customer care: [email protected] or call on 91-22 4007 1000 .
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