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Pensions: More Equity Between the Generations ywM^t 7J¥4F t.Jjjgg,.,; M Science Indicators - Job Creation - Economic Outlook PENSIONS: MORE EQUITY BETWEEN THE GENERATIONS Mo. 138 JANUARY 1986 CONTENTS OECD PENSION REFORM: SHARING THE BURDEN by Robert Holzmann 3 OBSERVER NEW WAYS TO CREATE JOBS: No. 138 January 1986 THE ROLE OF BIG FIRMS Published bi-monthly in English and by Chris W. Brooks and Sergio Arzeni 1 1 French by the ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY INDICATORS 1 5 EDITORIAL OFFICES OECD Information Service, Château de la TOURISM: AN ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Muette, 2, rue André-Pascal, F75775 IN ITS OWN RIGHT 20 PARIS, CEDEX 16. Individual articles not copyrighted may be reprinted providing the credit line reads COUNTRY PROBLEMS AND STRATEGIES: "Reprinted from the OECD Observer" plus CANADA 22 date of issue, and two voucher copies are UNITED STATES 23 sent to the Editor. Signed articles reprinted SWITZERLAND 25 must bear author's name. The Organisation cannot be responsible for returning unsolicited manuscripts. HIGHLIGHTS FROM THE OECD Signed articles express the opinions of the ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, December 1985 27 authors and do not necessarily represent the opinion of OECD SOURCE: OECD Annual Subscription Rates EXPORT CREDITS - £4.80 US$11.00 F48.00 Single copies: £0.90 US$2.00 F9.00 MINIMUM INTEREST RATES FALL 33 Tel: (I) 45.24.81.66 EDITOR: NEW OECD PUBLICATIONS 34 Jane Bussière ASSOCIATE EDITOR: Ulla Ranhall-Reyners ASSISTANTS: Yannick Pizzinat Brigid Gallen Art, Production and Layout: Gerald Tingaud Photo Research: Silvia Thompson- Lépot All correspondence should be addressed to the Editor PHOTOS Cover: (left) A. Noguès, Sygma; (right) M. Mortes tier, Sygma; page 3 : Presse-und Informationsamt der Bundesregierung, Bonn; pages 6- 7 : Almasy; page 8 : Bundesbildstelle, Bonn; page 9 : A. Keler, Sygma; page 1 1 : L. Jouan, OECD; page 12 : D. Giry, REA; page 13 : (left and right) Corby Indus¬ trial Development Centre; page 14 : (top, from left to right) Sté Michaud, Elf Aquitaine/SOFREA/CETRA; Sté Salmona, SOFREA ; (bottom, from left to right) CETRA.SOFREA; pages 18-19: (left) Ross, Sygma; (top right) CMT Assistance publique, Paris; (bottom \ right) K. Fujino, Gamma; page 21 : (top, from left to right) Central Office of Information, London; Bundes¬ bildstelle, Bonn; (centre) CEC; (bottom, from left to right) Orion Press-Sygma ; Central Office of Informa¬ tion, London; page 22 : Canadian Department for Employment and Immigration; page 23 : Braga-OECD ; page 25 : ILO;page 26 : Department of Foreign Affairs, Dublin. Pension Reform: Sharing the Burden by Robert Holzmann1 A re-examination ofpublic retirement provisions is underway in all OECD countries. The conventional reason for concern about pensions is the increasing share of available economic resources they absorb, but there are also questions about the financial soundness of these schemes, now and in the future. Connected with the financial issue, yet distinguishable from it, is the fact that society's view of the performance ofpension systems is changing as new social preferences and needs assert themselves. Despite the variety of retirement provisions in the OECD area, there is a striking similarity between countries in the rate of growth of pension expenditures, in the causes of this growth and the set of policy options envisaged. It is on these similarities that the following article focuses. Present public - or publicly regu¬ The lack of opportunities for savings and demand, as a means of attracting political lated pension programmes reflect investment which yield assured returns in support or as a way of integrating under¬ responses to five main challenges: real terms, the absence of inflation-proof privileged groups into market-oriented The break-up of traditional family struc¬ annuities, and the problems involved in society. tures which has made the conventional insuring the risks of varying life spans In many countries, pension schemes approach of income support from within An actual or assumed inadequacy of have their roots at the turn of the century, the family increasingly obsolete retirement saving by individuals, whether but their present structure and their nearly Economic and social developments due to myopic behaviour or to insufficient universal eligibility date from just after the which have fostered the concept of income resources adequacy and equality, not only within but Political considerations: pensions have 1. OECD Social Affairs, Manpower and Edu¬ also between generations been seen as a reaction to a growing social cation Directorate. PUBLIC PENSION EXPENDITURES As a Percentage of GDP for the Seven Major OECD Countries... 1960-1983 ITALY FRANCE GERMANY UNITED STATES UNITED KINGDOM JAPAN CANADA AVERAGE OF SEVEN Source: OECD, Annual National Accounts, Social Expenditure Data File. techniques (contributions made were held ... and in the Smaller Countries and invested with the aim of covering % future payments), but the funding principle was soon abandoned, and current holdings 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1983 of reserves are diminishing in most coun¬ Australia 3.4 3.3 3.1 4.9 5.3 5.6 tries. Funding has been replaced by the Austria 9.6 10.8 11.6 12.5 13.5 14.3 pay-as-you-go system (in which current Belgium n.a. n.a. n.a. 10.5 12.0 n.a. pensions are paid by current receipts). This Denmark 4.6 5.0 7.2 7.8 8.1 8.0 approach has well-known advantages, Finland 3.8 4.5 5.2 6.2 6.6 7.2 such as immediate eligibility for the older Greece n.a. 4.3 5.3 4.8 5.8 n.a. generation and protection of pensions Ireland 2.5 2.8 3.2 4.2 4.6 5.5 against inflation, and it fits well into the Netherlands 4.0 6.2 6.6 8.9 11.0 11.3 political environment of a voter-oriented New Zealand 4.4 3.9 4.0 5.0 7.1 8.0 society: any promise of future entitlement 3.1 4.7 7.2 8.0 7.9 8.2 Norway to improved benefits or an extension of Portugal n.a. n.a. n.a. 4.1 6.2 7.5 coverage to new groups has political value Spain n.a. n.a. 3.2 4.3 7.3 8.5 today while the financial implications may Sweden 4.4 5.1 6.1 7.7 10.9 11.7 be postponed for decades. And although Switzerland 2.3 3.4 4.4 7.7 8.0 7.9 social insurance systems were initially OECD average (a) 4.5 5.2 5.9 7.4 8.3 9.0 designed for low-income groups in most countries, they soon expanded to include a) Belgium, Greece, Spain and Portugal not included. all employed workers, even the self- Source: Same as Chart A. employed. This increase in coverage reflected not only a political commitment Second World War. There are two polar are still visible, with the addition of a third to the welfare state but also social pressure models of public retirement provision: category - the mixed system. for inclusion by those initially outside the The insurance model relates benefits to scheme. former earnings and the length of contribu¬ A Growing Share of The high growth rates of real income tion periods and is mandatory for a specific Resources during the 1950s and 1960s provided occupational group (Bismarck). revenues which could easily be used to The universal or tax transfer model The growing magnitude of expenditure extend pension programmes, to provide provides income maintenance at a basic on public retirement programmes can be more generous benefits and favourable level for the total population and is financed traced to a number of separate influences indexation procedures. The demographic by general taxes (Beveridge). which, though their importance varies prospects of the period were also favour¬ The distinction between these two types between OECD countries, are nevertheless able: until 1970, because of high birth has gradually become blurred, but the common to all. In the beginning, almost all rates, the proportion of old people did not broad characteristics of the basic models social insurance systems applied funding seem likely to become a problem. The extension of public pension schemes regulations both the benefit level and the reason for the decrease in collective social was propelled by the distributional objec¬ share of the older population that is eligible demand for pensions. Even if prices had tives of the welfare state and the generally will continue to increase for some time. been constant, demand might have shifted shared optimism about the benefits of This may be due to the youth of the due to the increased importance of occupa¬ government intervention as well as by the system, to the fact that improvements tional and private retirement schemes then dominant Keynesian paradigm. The have been promised but not yet come into which in many countries are provided at pay-as-you-go system decreased the likeli¬ full force or to increased female labour- lower cost to the individual because of hood of excess savings and hence of force participation. advantageous tax concessions. insufficient aggregate demand, while the This increase in the current and expected All of this comes at a time of increasing transfer scheme could be used for demand costs of an established social programme budget deficits and growth in public debt. management: a transfer of income from has taken place just at a time when active Although there are no direct links between workers to retired people, whose marginal workers are having to adjust to the pros¬ this debt and pension schemes, the indirect propensity to consume was higher, was pect of much lower growth in earnings, relations are strong.
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