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Defining a Strategic Campaign for Working with Partners to Counter and Delegitimize Violent Extremism

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Defining a Strategic Campaign for Working with Partners to Counter and Delegitimize Violent Extremism Approved for Public Release DEFINING A STRATEGIC CAMPAIGN FOR WORKING WITH PARTNERS TO COUNTER AND DELEGITIMIZE VIOLENT EXTREMISM A Strategic Multilayer Assessment Project 19-20 May 2010 Prepared for: US Department of State RAND Corporation JS/J-3/DDGO STRATCOM/GISC OSD/DDRE/RRTO Prepared by: Ashley Arana, Tessa Baker, & Sarah Canna NSI, Inc. (301) 466-2265 [email protected] 1 Approved for Public Release Approved for Public Release This report represents the views and opinions of the workshop participants. The report does not represent official administration policy or position. 2 Approved for Public Release Approved for Public Release CONTENTS Strategic Communications Workshop: Areas of Panelist Agreement & Divergence .................................. 5 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................................ 8 Introduction (Dr. Hriar Cabayan & Mr. Todd Leventhal) ...................................................................................... 13 Opening Comments (Pradeep Ramamurthy) ............................................................................................................ 14 Session 1: Trajectories of Terrorism ............................................................................................................................. 15 Dr. Dipak Gupta (San Diego State) ............................................................................................................................. 15 Tom Rieger (Gallup) ........................................................................................................................................................ 17 Dr. John Horgan (Penn State University) ................................................................................................................ 19 Dr. Sherifa Zuhur (Institute of Middle Eastern, Islamic and Strategic Studies) ...................................... 21 Dr. Angela Trethewey (Arizona State University)............................................................................................... 24 Dr. Frank Furedi (University of Kent) ...................................................................................................................... 26 Unattributed Speaker (USG) ........................................................................................................................................ 27 Danny Campos (USSOCOM) .......................................................................................................................................... 28 An All-of-Government Approach to Countering Violent Extermism: The Value of Interagency Planning (Dan Sutherland, Shaarik Zafar, & An Unattributed Speaker) ......................................................... 29 Session 2: What Constitutes “Delegitimization”? ..................................................................................................... 34 Mehdi Khalaji (Washington Institute for Near East Policy) ............................................................................ 35 Dr. Benjamin Nickels (START, University of Maryland) ................................................................................... 35 Dr. Eric Larson (RAND Corporation) ........................................................................................................................ 35 Dr. Tawfik Hamid (Potomac Institute) .................................................................................................................... 35 Dr. Karl DeRouen (University of Alabama) ............................................................................................................ 35 Dr. Cheryl Benard (a consultant for RAND Corporation) ................................................................................. 35 Dr. Walid Phares (National Defense University) ................................................................................................. 36 Dr. Latéfa Belarouci (Consultant) .............................................................................................................................. 36 Dr. Paul Davis (RAND Corporation) .......................................................................................................................... 36 Session 3: Strategic Campaigns to Diminish and Deflate Radical Islamist Threats ................................... 44 CAPT Wayne Porter (OCJCS) ........................................................................................................................................ 44 Farah Pandith (Department of State) ....................................................................................................................... 44 Dr. Qamar-ul Huda (USIP) ............................................................................................................................................. 45 Ziad Alahdad (Former Director of Operations at the World Bank) ............................................................. 46 Dr. Hedieh Mirahmadi (WORDE) ............................................................................................................................... 47 Unattributed Speaker (USG) ........................................................................................................................................ 48 Dr. Bill McEwen (Gallup) ............................................................................................................................................... 49 3 Approved for Public Release Approved for Public Release Dr. Gregory Michaelidis (Department of Homeland Security) ..................................................................... 50 Scott Carpenter (Washington Institute for Near East Policy) ........................................................................ 50 Session 4: Day One Wrap-up ............................................................................................................................................. 51 Radicalization .......................................................................................................................................................................... 53 The Gensis of Terrorism in Algeria (Dr. Latéfa Belarouci) .............................................................................. 53 From Afghanistan to Mexico: Explaining Radical Behavior? (Alexis Everington) ................................. 54 Radicalization and the Battle of Values (Dr. Frank Furedi) ............................................................................ 58 The Turn to Political Violence (Dr. Marc Sageman) ........................................................................................... 62 Stories, Identities, and Conflict: The Narrative of Political Violence (LtCol Bill Casebeer) ............... 65 Influence & Deterrence ....................................................................................................................................................... 70 Extremist Narratives and Influence (Dr. Angela Trethewey) ........................................................................ 70 Mega Trends of Terror: Explaining the Path of Global Spread of Ideas (Dr. Dipak Gupta) ................ 73 Deradicalization & Counter-Radicalization ................................................................................................................ 76 Assessing the Effectiveness of Deradicalization Programs (Dr. John Horgan) ....................................... 76 A Strategic Plan to Defeat Radical Islam (Dr. Tawfik Hamid) ........................................................................ 80 Muslim Democrats as a Counter-Strategy to the Jihadist Radicalization (Dr. Walid Phares) ........... 84 Wrap Up (Dr. Paul Davis) ................................................................................................................................................... 87 Appendix A: Agenda ............................................................................................................................................................. 90 Appendix B: Participants .................................................................................................................................................... 93 Appendix C: Acronyms ........................................................................................................................................................ 95 4 Approved for Public Release Approved for Public Release STRATEGIC COMMUNICATIONS WORKSHOP: AREAS OF PANELIST AGREEMENT & DIVERGENCE Rather than a typical executive summary, this section highlights the major points of agreement and difference among panelists attending the “Defining a Strategic Campaign for Working with Partners to Counter and Delegitimize Violent Extremism” Workshop, 19-20 May 2010 at Gallup World Headquarters in Washington, DC. Shaping Discourse Engage the Muslim world to address concerns using appropriate language and jargon, and as partners rather than adversaries. Most foreign policy actions communicate something about America to the world and are, thus, strategic communications. The impact of such actions are a function of the substance of policy actions themselves; the messages they send to various audiences; how they are orchestrated and explained; and message reinforcement, i.e., the degree to which the USG appears to do what it says it will do. A
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