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Appointment of Michael Saunders to the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee

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Appointment of Michael Saunders to the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee House of Commons Treasury Committee Appointment of Michael Saunders to the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee Eighth Report of Session 2016–17 Report, together with formal minutes relating to the report Ordered by the House of Commons to be printed 11 October 2016 HC 729 Published on 17 October 2016 by authority of the House of Commons The Treasury Committee The Treasury Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration, and policy of HM Treasury, HM Revenue and Customs and associated public bodies. Current membership Mr Andrew Tyrie MP (Conservative, Chichester) (Chair) Mr Steve Baker MP (Conservative, Wycombe) Mark Garnier MP (Conservative, Wyre Forest) Helen Goodman MP (Labour, Bishop Auckland) Stephen Hammond MP (Conservative, Wimbledon) George Kerevan MP (Scottish National Party, East Lothian) John Mann MP (Labour, Bassetlaw) Chris Philp MP (Conservative, Croydon South) Mr Jacob Rees-Mogg MP (Conservative, North East Somerset) Rachel Reeves MP (Labour, Leeds West) Wes Streeting MP (Labour, Ilford North) Powers The Committee is one of the departmental select committees, the powers of which are set out in House of Commons Standing Orders, principally in SO No 152. These are available on the internet via www.parliament.uk. Publication Committee reports are published on the Committee’s website at www.parliament.uk/treascom and in print by Order of the House. Evidence relating to this report is published on the inquiry page of the Committee’s website. Committee staff The current staff of the Committee are James Rhys (Committee Clerk), Gavin Thompson (Senior Economist), Marcus Wilton (Senior Economist), Dan Lee (Senior Economist), James Mirza Davies (Committee Specialist), Darren Hackett (Senior Committee Assistant), Elektra Garvie-Adams (Committee Support Assistant), Matt Panteli (Senior Media and Policy Officer), Toby Coaker (Committee Specialist on secondment from the NAO), David Hook (on secondment from HMRC), George Barnes (on secondment from the Bank of England) and Victoria Sena (on secondment from the Bank of England). Contacts All correspondence should be addressed to the Clerk of the Treasury Committee, House of Commons, London SW1A 0AA. The telephone number for general enquiries is 020 7219 5769; the Committee’s email address is [email protected]. Appointment of Michael Saunders to the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee 1 Contents Introduction 3 1 The appointment of Michael Saunders 4 Background on Michael Saunders 4 Our evidence 4 Conclusion 4 Appendix 1: Michael Saunders’ appointment hearing questionnaire 5 Appendix 2: Michael Saunders’ curriculum vitae 16 Formal Minutes 17 Witness 18 List of Reports from the Committee during the current Parliament 19 Appointment of Michael Saunders to the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee 3 Introduction 1. The Treasury announced the appointment of Michael Saunders on 15 April 2016 as an external member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). Mr Saunders has been appointed for an initial three year term taking effect from 9 August 2016.1 2. In this Report, the Committee has considered the suitability of Mr Saunders for his role against two criteria - personal independence and professional competence - as the Treasury Committee has previously done for appointees to the Bank of England’s Policy Committees. In this appointment hearing, the Committee also wanted to ensure that the candidate’s personal and professional background did not give rise to any conflicts of interest with the aims of the Bank of England. 3. We took evidence from Mr Saunders on 11 October 2016. He provided a full CV and answered our questionnaire prior to giving oral evidence. The Committee thanks him for his evidence, which is appended to this Report. 1 HM Treasury news release: Michael Saunders appointed as external member of the Monetary Policy Committee, first published 15 April 2016 4 Appointment of Michael Saunders to the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee 1 The appointment of Michael Saunders Background on Michael Saunders 4. Mr Saunders has been appointed for a three year term starting on 9 August 2016. 5. Previously Mr Saunders was a Managing Director and Head of European Economics at Citigroup where he worked for over 25 years. Prior to joining Citigroup, Mr Saunders had also worked at Greenwell Montagu (now part of HSBC) and the Institute for Fiscal Studies. Our evidence 6. In oral evidence, we questioned Mr Saunders about the outlook for the economy, and the operations of the Bank of England. Topics covered during the session included: • The independence of the Bank of England, and the interactions between fiscal and monetary policy, • the distributional effects of quantitative easing and monetary policy more widely, • the implications of fiscal policy on monetary policy, • the causes of low bond yields, • the risks to the economy, and financial stability, arising from sterling volatility, • implications of the devaluation of sterling on inflation, imports and exports, • the natural rate of unemployment and its effects on wage growth, • potential alternatives to the MPC inflation target, • the independence of the Bank of England in the run up to the EU referendum, • the long run effects of Brexit on economic growth, • the consequences in practise of the Bank of England’s corporate debt purchasing policy, • monetary policy’s declining capacity to increase the money supply, • the consequences of Q.E. on asset prices, • the causes of the UK current account deficit, and its effects on monetary policy. Conclusion 7. We are satisfied that Michael Saunders has the professional competence and personal independence to carry out his role as a Member of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee. We wish him every success in his role. Appointment of Michael Saunders to the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee 5 Appendix 1: Michael Saunders’ appointment hearing questionnaire Personal/General 1) Do you have any business or financial connections or other commitments, which might give rise to a conflict of interest in carrying out your duties as a member of the MPC? No 2) Do you intend to serve for the full term for which you have been appointed? Yes 3) During your term of appointment what areas in particular do you hope to focus your work in? What is your main priority for research in your term? I intend to work on whatever issues are most important for the UK economic outlook and monetary policy decisions. At present, one key issue is the extent of remaining slack in the economy, especially in the labour market, and whether the repeated downside surprises in pay growth over recent years are likely to continue. Another key set of issues concern the effects on the UK economy of the decision to leave the EU, both in the near-term and further ahead. The process of EU exit is likely to affect both the demand-side and supply- side of the economy, as well as the labour market, while also potentially affecting the UK’s neutral interest rate. Of course, other issues will probably arise. 4) How has your experience to date equipped you to fulfil your responsibilities as a member of the MPC? In particular, which areas of the MPC’s work do you feel especially capable of contributing to, and which will require you to undertake additional research? I have worked as a UK economist for nearly 30 years (since the late 1980s), initially as part of a small team and for the last 25 years as the sole UK economist at Citigroup (previously Salomon Brothers). In this role I have been responsible for forecasting and analysis of the UK economy and policy issues, with numerous written articles and presentations on the outlook. For the last 15 years or so, I have also been head of the Citigroup European economics team, managing a small team to cover the euro area, Switzerland, Sweden, Norway and Denmark. For the last 7 years or so, I was also been heavily involved in pulling together Citigroup’s global economic outlook, which is published each month. All this has given me a thorough knowledge of UK economic issues and helped to broaden my understanding of the external issues facing the UK. In addition, I have on occasion been an expert witness for the Treasury Committee in its inquiries. As discussed above, I believe there are plenty of economic and policy issues that merit further research and I would hope to do some work on these while also contributing to the MPC’s discussions on the economic outlook and policy options, public appearances and so forth. 6 Appointment of Michael Saunders to the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee 5) Have you published any research that is relevant to your role on the MPC? I have written many articles on the UK economy in my previous employment, with a regular UK Economics Weekly, a full monthly UK economic forecast for the next few years and other pieces on topical issues. In the last few years, I also wrote a monthly global economic overview. These articles are for a fairly wide audience, rather than an academic audience. I attach three fairly recent pieces as examples. The TSC is, I believe, on the email distribution list for those articles. I have written occasional newspaper articles on economic issues and I attach a recent piece for the Sunday Times business section as an example. I also attach my first speech as an MPC member, given on 5 October. 6) What do you regard as the main challenges facing the MPC over your period as a member? The key challenge, of course, is to fulfil the MPC’s remit, which can be summarized as to set monetary policy to keep inflation on target (currently 2% CPI inflation) over time, in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment, and with regard to avoid exacerbating imbalances that could threaten the FPC’s financial stability remit.
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