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Appointment of Ian Mccafferty to the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England

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Appointment of Ian Mccafferty to the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England House of Commons Treasury Committee The re-appointment of Ian McCafferty to the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England Third Report of Session 2015–16 Report, together with formal minutes relating to the report Ordered by the House of Commons to be printed 13 October 2015 HC 498 Published on 15 October 2015 by authority of the House of Commons London: The Stationery Office Limited £0.00 The Treasury Committee The Treasury Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration, and policy of HM Treasury, HM Revenue and Customs and associated public bodies. Current membership Mr Andrew Tyrie MP (Chair)(Conservative, Chichester) Mr Steve Baker MP (Conservative, Wycombe) Bill Esterson MP (Labour, Sefton Central) Mark Garnier MP (Conservative, Wyre Forest) Helen Goodman MP (Labour, Bishop Auckland) Stephen Hammond MP (Conservative, Wimbledon) George Kerevan MP (SNP, East Lothian) John Mann MP (Labour, Bassetlaw) Chris Philip MP (Conservative, Croydon South) Mr Jacob Rees-Mogg MP (Conservative, North East Somerset) Wes Streeting MP (Labour, Ilford North) Powers The committee is one of the departmental select committees, the powers of which are set out in House of Commons Standing Orders, principally in SO No 152. These are available on the internet via www.parliament.uk. Publication Committee reports are published on the Committee’s website at www. parliament.uk/treascom and by The Stationery Office by Order of the House. Evidence relating to this report is published on the Committee’s website at www. parliament.uk/treacom. Committee staff The current staff of the Committee are James Rhys (Committee Clerk), Chloe Challender (Second Clerk), Adam Wales (Senior Economist), Gavin Thompson (Senior Economist), Laura Saks (on secondment from the FCA), Steven Price (Senior Committee Assistant), Amy Vistuer (Committee Assistant), Toby Coaker (Media Officer/Committee Specialist on secondment from the NAO) Contacts All correspondence should be addressed to the Clerk of the Treasury Committee, House of Commons, London, SW1A 0AA. The telephone number for general enquiries is 020 7219 5769; the Committee’s email address is treascom@ parliament.uk. Re-appointment of Ian McCafferty to the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England 1 Contents 1 The conduct of MPC appointment hearings 3 Background 3 2 The re-appointment of Mr Ian McCafferty 4 Background on Mr Ian McCafferty 4 Our evidence 4 Conclusions 5 Appendix 1: CV Ian Alexander McCafferty 6 Appendix 2: Questionnaire in advance of Treasury Committee hearing 11 Formal Minutes 19 Witnesses 20 List of Reports from the Committee during the current Parliament 21 Re-appointment of Ian McCafferty to the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England 3 1 The conduct of MPC appointment hearings Background 1. In its Report in November 2010 on the Appointment of Dr Martin Weale to the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, the 2010-15 Treasury Committee stated that it would follow previous practice and continue to use the criteria of professional competence and personal independence against which to consider appointees to the Monetary Policy Committee.1 2. In this Report, we have considered the suitability of Mr Ian McCafferty for his continuing role as a member of the MPC against those criteria, continuing the practice of previous Treasury Committees. 3. The Chancellor announced the re-appointment of Mr McCafferty on 20 May 2015.2 We took evidence from Mr McCafferty on 13 October 2015. This evidence, for which we are grateful, will be published shortly, together with Mr McCafferty’s answers to our questionnaire and his curriculum vitae. 1 Treasury Committee, Second Report of Session 2010-12, Appointment of Dr Martin Weale to the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England, HC 475-I, para 4 2 www.gov.uk, News story: Chancellor re-appoints Ian McCafferty to the Monetary Policy Committee, From:HM Treasury and The Rt Hon George Osborne MP First published:20 May 2015 4 Re-appointment of Ian McCafferty to the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England 2 The re-appointment of Mr Ian McCafferty Background on Mr Ian McCafferty 4. Mr McCafferty has been a member of the Monetary Policy Committee since 2012. Between 2009 and 2014 he was a member of the Advisory Board of the UK Innovation Research Centre (University of Cambridge and Imperial College, London). Prior to his appointment to the Monetary Policy Committee, Mr McCafferty had been Chief Economic Adviser to the Confederation of British Industry since 2001. 5. Before working at the Confederation of British Industry, Mr McCafferty had significant private sector experience, working as the Head of Macroeconomics at BP plc between 1998 and 2001 and as Director, International Economics, at Natwest Markets between 1993 and 1997. He was also a visiting professor at the London Metropolitan Business School between 2008 and 2012. Our evidence 6. In oral evidence, we questioned Mr McCafferty about the outlook for the economy, and the operation of monetary policy in the UK. Topics covered during the session included: • His determination of the balance of risks to the inflation forecast; • The rise in labour costs; • Unwinding Quantitative Easing; • The effect of prolonged low interest rates on capital allocation; • The normal long-term interest rate; • Tools to provide further monetary stimulus; • Negative interest rates; • The output gap; • His outlook for productivity; • The productivity puzzle; • Prospects for business investment; • The IMF’s forecasts for the global economy; and • The September 2015 CPI outturn. Re-appointment of Ian McCafferty to the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England 5 Conclusions 7. We are satisfied that Mr Ian McCafferty fulfils our two criteria for appointment to the Monetary Policy Committee of professional competence and personal independence. We wish him every success in his continuing role as a member of the MPC. 6 Re-appointment of Ian McCafferty to the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England Appendix 1: CV Ian Alexander McCafferty Profile An economist with expertise in macro-economic policy-making, economic analysis & forecasting, financial markets, and business strategy & planning, covering both UK and international economies. High-level experience of working with government, business, higher education and the media. A senior manager of successful teams of economists and analysts. An established commentator and writer on economic issues, a regular contributor to the media, and frequent public speaker. Career history 2012–15 Bank of England, External Member, Monetary Policy Committee Member of the Monetary Policy Committee, responsible for setting monetary policy for the UK. 2001–12 Confederation of British Industry, Chief Economic Adviser Executive Director and member of the CBI Management Board. Responsible for economic research and policy development, interaction with government on economic issues and provision of economic advisory services to CBI member companies. Duties and responsibilities: • To lead CBI research and analysis on all economic issues, generating forecasts and commentary on UK and international economies and developing policy positions and recommendations • To represent CBI views on economic policy issues to ministers, MPs and civil servants, as well as to EU, US and other governments and institutions • To advise HM Treasury, Bank of England and BIS on economic and business conditions • To lead and manage CBI economic research and analysis teams • To engage closely with business leaders, seeking their views on issues of public policy and advising on economic and strategic business issues • To work with media, opinion formers and other external audiences, to communicate CBI views • To provide corporate leadership and strategic management to the CBI • To provide intellectual leadership and challenge across the CBI 1998–2001 BP plc, Head of Macroeconomics Member of the central Corporate Strategy team, providing advice to BP Executive Management and the Board of Directors on macro-economic issues and their implications for BP. Head of economic team responsible for research and analysis of the external Re-appointment of Ian McCafferty to the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England 7 economic environment. • Analysis of the implications of global and national economic trends for BP performance and strategy • Provision of economic forecasts for national economies • Economic and political risk appraisal in support of BP investment strategy • Analytical support for corporate strategy development • Representation of BP to external stakeholders and audiences 1993–97 Natwest Markets, Director, International Economics Director co-ordinating regional economic research teams covering the UK, continental Europe, the US, and Asia-Pacific, in support of equity, bond, treasury and investment banking activities • Provision of integrated economic research and strategy services to investment clients worldwide • Marketing of economics and strategy research to an international client base. • Head of pan-European economic team, providing research on European economies • Head of EMU research and analysis 1988–92 Baring Securities, Chief European Economist Head of team responsible for European economic research in support of equity broking, and marketing research to an international client base. • Research and analysis of European economies • Co-ordination of economic research coverage of the UK, continental Europe, the US, and Japan •
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