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Strategic Studies Quarterly Winter 2020 Vol 14, No. 4

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Strategic Studies Quarterly Winter 2020 Vol 14, No. 4 WINTER 2020 Vol. 14, No. 4 On the Future of Air and Space Power An Interview with Barbara M. Barrett Space: New Threats, New Service, New Frontier An Interview with Mir Sadat FEATURE ARTICLE Poison, Persistence, and Cascade Effects: AI and Cyber Conflict Christopher Whyte Nuclear- Armed Hypersonic Weapons and Nuclear Deterrence Col Stephen Reny, USAF Space Traffic Management in the New Space Age Brian G. Chow Missing: Legal Frameworks for Chemical Security Richard T. Cupitt Mary C. Vecellio Nuclear- Weapon- Free Zones and Contemporary Arms Control Elizabeth Mendenhall Strategic Studies SSQ Quarterly Chief of Staff, US Air Force Gen Charles Q. Brown, Jr., USAF Chief of Space Operations, US Space Force Gen John W. Raymond, USSF Commander, Air Education and Training Command Lt Gen Marshall B. Webb, USAF Commander and President, Air University Lt Gen James B. Hecker, USAF Director, Academic Services Mehmed Ali, PhD Director, Air University Press Maj Richard T. Harrison, USAF Editor Col W. Michael Guillot, USAF, Retired Managing Editor Print Specialist Illustrator Jeanne K. Shamburger Megan N. Hoehn Daniel M. Armstrong Advisers Contributing Editors Gen Michael P. C. Carns, USAF, Retired David C. Benson, PhD James W. Forsyth, PhD Mark J. Conversino, PhD Christina Goulter, PhD Kelly A. Grieco, PhD Robert P. Haffa, PhD Michael R. Kraig, PhD Jay P. Kesan, PhD Dawn C. Murphy, PhD Charlotte Ku, PhD David D. Palkki, PhD Martin C. Libicki, PhD Nicholas M. Sambaluk, PhD Wendy Whitman Cobb, PhD https://www.af.mil/ https://www.spaceforce.mil/ https://www.aetc.af.mil/ https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/ Strategic Studies Quarterly An Air Force–Sponsored Strategic Forum on National and International Security WINTER 2020 VOL. 14, NO. 4 POLICY FORUM 3 OnAn Interview the Future with Barbara of Air M. and Barrett Space Power 6 Space:An Interview New with Threats, Mir Sadat New Service, New Frontier FEATURE ARTICLE 18 Poison, Persistence, and Cascade Effects: AIChristopher and Cyber Whyte Conflict PERSPECTIVES 47 Nuclear- Armed Hypersonic Weapons and NuclearCol Stephen Deterrence Reny, USAF 74 SpaceBrian G. TrafficChow Management in the New Space Age 103 Missing:Richard T. Cupitt Legal Frameworks for Chemical Security Mary C. Vecellio 122 Nuclear- Weapon- Free Zones and Contemporary ArmsElizabeth Control Mendenhall IN MEMORIAM 152 Stephen Chiabotti POLICY FORUM On the Future of Air and Space Power An Interview with Barbara M. Barrett Secretary of the Air Force Conducted 28 September 2020 SSQ: Air Force recommendations in the 2021 National Defense Au- thorization Act (NDAA) focus on divestiture. Was the outcome ag- gressive or ambitious enough? SECAF: Overall, yes. The FY21 president’s budget reflects balance. Prior to submission, the Department of the Air Force conducted a com- prehensive review of each portfolio and made hard decisions to align with the National Defense Strategy (NDS). Planners wargamed complex sce- narios to assess effectiveness and recommended required investments to prevail in a peer fight. In the budget, the Department accepts calculated, modest, short- term risk to achieve the Secretary of Defense’s goal of ir- reversible momentum toward NDS implementation. SSQ: Are you comfortable with the level of R&D funding within the 2021 NDAA? SECAF: I think it is reasonable. R&D investment is fundamental to enabling the Department of the Air Force to fulfill the NDS. The FY21 R&D budget includes robust support of the Advanced Battle Manage- ment System, the Next- Generation Overhead Persistent Infrared constel- lation, Vanguard programs, quantum science, advanced communications, directed energy, 5G, microelectronics, and hypersonics. This funding will ensure the Air and Space Forces stay competitive. SSQ: Based on your vast experience in the defense industry, how would you characterize the state of Air Force–industry relations? SECAF: The Air Force and Space Force have strong relationships with industry. Still, the COVID-19 pandemic instigated manufacturing chal- lenges that no one anticipated. Concurrently, we jump- started innovation to accomplish missions. Our industry partners often delivered military capabilities despite the challenges encountered this year. STRATEGIC STUDIES QUARTERLY WINTER 2020 3 An Interview with Barbara M. Barrett SSQ: Do you have any concerns about the defense industrial base and its ability to support our National Defense Strategy? SECAF: To meet the demands of the NDS, the Air Force and Space Force depend on reliable, responsive industry that produces and sustains systems. The pandemic has stressed many elements of the defense indus- try; however, many partners found ingenious ways to mitigate stresses and risks. Importantly, we are accelerating the shift to digital engineering, agile software development, and open systems architectures. Additionally, we are working with the industrial base to reduce dependence on foreign sources of raw materials and microelectronics. Finally, to broaden our col- laboration with the defense industry, we are building new partnerships with companies that have never before worked with the Department of the Air Force. SSQ: Are the services organized, trained, and equipped adequately to support the era of great power conflict, particularly the rebalance to Asia? SECAF: The NDS calls on the Department of Defense to deter and, if deterrence fails, to defend against adversarial behavior. With the support of Congress, the force has grown over the past three budget years by 7,820 Airmen. Nonetheless, three congressionally mandated reports—one in- ternal and two conducted independently—conclude that the Air Force is too small to meet all the demands of the NDS. The FY21 president’s budget will help by adding 1,500 personnel to the F-35, refueling opera- tions, maintenance, and combat support. SSQ: Given the state of artificial intelligence (AI), autonomous weap- ons, and nanotechnology, what do you see as the greatest opportunities? SECAF: Technology presents impactful opportunities for faster, cheaper, and more efficient capabilities. Artificial intelligence, autono- mous weapons, and nanotechnology each offer greater flexibility and le- thality to Air Force and Space Force operations. Our Vanguard programs use prototyping and experimentation to improve weapons systems and warfighting concepts. Three Vanguard programs—Skyborg, Golden Horde, and Navigation Technology Satellite-3 (NTS-3)—push boundaries by integrating tech- nology components to deliver new capabilities across multiple domains. The Skyborg initiative integrates AI with autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles to enable manned- unmanned teaming. Golden Horde uses on- board radios to develop networked and collaborative weapons that share 4 STRATEGIC STUDIES QUARTERLY WINTER 2020 On the Future of Air and Space Power data, interact, and execute coordinated actions with other systems (includ- ing manned aircraft). The NTS-3 flight experiment examines field capa- bilities across the ground, space, and user segments to enhance space-based positioning, navigation, and timing. Finally, the Air Force and Space Force are leveraging domestic and inter- national partnerships with industry, academia, allies, and partners to advance technological advantages. SSQ: What challenges remain to fully incorporate the U.S. Space Force? SECAF: The U.S. Space Force is a good- news story. Logically, space capabilities should be aligned under Space Force. Senior leaders through- out the Department of Defense are analyzing which missions and person- nel should transfer into the Space Force to align the organizations with space missions. Simultaneously, we are adapting myriad existing depart- mental systems to the new service. We are committed to building an agile, innovative, and bold Space Force. SSQ: Where do you see the Space Force 25 years from now? SECAF: Twenty- five years from now, systems and technologies em- ployed in space will have advanced unrecognizably. Still, the fundamental mission of Space Force will endure: protecting American interests and pre- serving free access to, and use of, the space domain for all benevolent actors. SSQ: Madam Secretary, on behalf of Team SSQ and the entire SSQ audience, thank you for sharing your views on the bright future of the U.S. Air and Space Forces. STRATEGIC STUDIES QUARTERLY WINTER 2020 5 POLICY FORUM Space: New Threats, New Service, New Frontier An Interview with Mir Sadat Former Policy Director, National Security Council Conducted 1 August 2020 Dr. Mir Sadat has over 25 years of leadership experience in private indus- try, the Department of Defense, the intelligence community, and the Na- tional Security Council (NSC). At the NSC he was a policy director for interagency collaboration on defense and space policy issues helping to es- tablish the US Space Force and US Space Command. Previously, as a naval officer with intelligence and space expertise, he served on orders as a space policy strategist for the chief of naval operations and as a space operations officer for US Fleet Cyber Command / US Tenth Fleet. Prior to govern- ment service, he spent 10 years working for prime defense corporations. SSQ: How would you characterize the great power competition in space? MS: The Cold War may be over, but since the early 2010s, a renewed era of great power competition has emerged across the world’s land, air, sea, cyber, and space domains. This great power competition is about not only geostrategic positioning but ideological, political, economic, military, and technological dominance. Too often,
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