DOCSLIB.ORG

The Census and Social Science

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
The Census and Social Science House of Commons Science and Technology Committee The Census and social science Third Report of Session 2012–13 Report, together with formal minutes, oral and written evidence Additional written evidence is contained in Volume II, available on the Committee website at www.parliament.uk/science Ordered by the House of Commons to be printed 12 September 2012 HC 322 [Incorporating HC 1666–i to -iii, Session 2010–12] Published on 21 September 2012 by authority of the House of Commons London: The Stationery Office Limited £0.00 Science and Technology Committee The Science and Technology Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration and policy of the Government Office for Science and associated public bodies. Current membership Andrew Miller (Labour, Ellesmere Port and Neston) (Chair) Caroline Dinenage (Conservative, Gosport) Jim Dowd (Labour, Lewisham West and Pinge) Gareth Johnson (Conservative, Dartford) Stephen Metcalfe (Conservative, South Basildon and East Thurrock) Stephen Mosley (Conservative, City of Chester) Pamela Nash (Labour, Airdrie and Shotts) Sarah Newton (Conservative, Truro and Falmouth) Graham Stringer (Labour, Blackley and Broughton) Hywel Williams (Plaid Cymru, Arfon) Roger Williams (Liberal Democrat, Brecon and Radnorshire) The following members were also members of the committee during the parliament: Gavin Barwell (Conservative, Croydon Central) Gregg McClymont (Labour, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East) Stephen McPartland (Conservative, Stevenage) David Morris (Conservative, Morecambe and Lunesdale) Jonathan Reynolds (Labour/Co-operative, Stalybridge and Hyde) Powers The Committee is one of the departmental Select Committees, the powers of which are set out in House of Commons Standing Orders, principally in SO No.152. These are available on the Internet via www.parliament.uk Publications The Reports and evidence of the Committee are published by The Stationery Office by Order of the House. All publications of the Committee (including press notices) are on the Internet at http://www.parliament.uk/science. A list of reports from the Committee in this Parliament is included at the back of this volume. The Reports of the Committee, the formal minutes relating to that report, oral evidence taken and some or all written evidence are available in printed volume(s). Additional written evidence may be published on the internet only. Committee staff The current staff of the Committee are: Dr Stephen McGinness (Clerk); Jessica Montgomery (Second Clerk); Xameerah Malik (Senior Committee Specialist); Darren Hackett (Senior Committee Assistant); Julie Storey (Committee Assistant); Henry Ayi-Hyde (Committee Office Assistant); and Nick Davies (Media Officer). Contacts All correspondence should be addressed to the Clerk of the Science and Technology Committee, Committee Office, 7 Millbank, London SW1P 3JA. The telephone number for general inquiries is: 020 7219 2793; the Committee’s e- mail address is: [email protected]. The Census and social science 1 Contents Report Page Summary 3 1 Introduction 5 Early Census activity in England 5 Beyond 2011 5 Our inquiry 6 2 How the census is used currently 8 Social science in central government 8 Use of census by public bodies 9 Use of the census by industry 11 3 Value of the census 13 National coverage 13 Longitudinal studies/the advantage of comparisons over time 14 Detailed local information 15 Reliance on official information/difficulties of combining other sources 16 Census data as reference point 17 Disadvantages of reliance on census data 17 Timeliness 17 The impact of the census on the ONS 18 4 A future without a census? 20 Existing alternatives to the census 20 Concerns about the future availability and reliability of administrative sources 24 Future developments 27 Conclusions and recommendations 29 Formal Minutes 33 Witnesses 34 List of printed written evidence 34 List of additional written evidence 35 List of Reports from the Committee during the current Parliament 36 The Census and social science 3 Summary We undertook an inquiry into the proposed changes to the census not to consider whether there should or should not be another census but to consider the use of the data from the census by the Government, whether there were elements of the census that would be irreplaceable by other means and if the business of Government would be seriously impacted if census data was lost or changed. We are committed to the principle of the Government basing its policy on evidence and social science based evidence needs to be just as robust as that from any other science. Social science in Government is strategically coordinated by a heads of analysis group and social scientists in Government departments are supported by a cross departmental resource based in the Treasury. We were concerned however that there was no clear voice, like the Chief Scientific Advisor provides in other sciences, to influence at a Ministerial level. We are more concerned about the lack of a Minister who could answer for Government as a whole whether social science provision was adequate and whether the data from the census and other sources was fit for purpose. We found that there were many other social science surveys that would appear to overlap with the census. We were informed that these surveys could not replace the census and indeed depended on census data as a source of calibration. This dependence would appear to be due to the fact that there is no other survey that can approach the breadth of the census. We did hear of good use being made of non-census surveys to provide equivalent data in a number of areas in a much shorter timescale than can be achieved through the use of a decadal census. There are a number of other key qualities of the census could not be replaced by other means. Census data provides a snapshot of the whole country at a moment in time which is invaluable to historians and to detect trends in the recent past; it also allows comparisons to be made of different areas in the country more accurately. The census also provides a means to recruit to longitudinal studies which, we are convinced, are the envy of social scientists in other countries. A wide variety of organisations and local historians told us that they depend on the availability of census data as they could not afford to finance any equivalent studies. The key disadvantages of the census would seem to be the timeliness of the data. Census data is always at least two years out of date and up to twelve years just prior to a census day. In areas where the population changes rapidly census data would rapidly become non- representational. There is also a concern that the very presence of such an obvious dataset means that new and innovative solutions are not sought for social science as they can lean on census data whether or not it is the best solution. We have concerns that social science could suffer if the census was to be discontinued without serious consideration as to how this data would be replaced. We have been told that surveys and administrative data can be used effectively but we have concerns that this would not easily scale to a nationwide coverage. There would need to be a serious consideration of how administrative data could be brought to a national standard to allow 4 The Census and social science it to be more easily used as a replacement for census data. A particular concern would be recruitment to existing longitudinal studies. However, we anticipate that the absence of a census would also potentially stimulate a considerable amount of innovation in social science and examination of how to produce social data of an equivalent standard, but to much quicker timescales, than the current census data. The Census and social science 5 1 Introduction Early Census activity in England 1. The ominous title of the Domesday Book often seems to obscure the fact that it was a simple census activity. The website of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) describes the Domesday book of 1086 as the “first thorough survey of England”, adding: The Domesday Book paints a very detailed picture of life in Norman England. So in these terms it can be thought of as our first census. But unlike the modern census, it did not provide an accurate count of the people living in England then. Also unlike the modern census, Domesday’s purpose was to establish the ownership of assets, so that owners could be taxed on these possessions.1 Thus the first recognisable census in England provides some insight into what was important in that society: the King wished to know what tax revenues might be raised from the populace. Arguably, every subsequent census has revealed what the government of the day thought it important to know at that time. 2. The incentive for the modern census was not money but the fear of overpopulation. This fear was fuelled by the publication in 1798 of Thomas Malthus’s Essay on the principle of population, which suggested that population growth would soon outstrip supplies of food and other resources. Concerned at this alarmist view of the future, people began to see the need for a census.2 Parliament passed the Census Act in 1800 and the first official census of England and Wales was held on 10 March 1801. Since then there has been a census every ten years except for 1941, during the Second World War. 3. There have been constant changes to the questions asked in the census with more and more detail required to provide greater ‘granularity’3 for a population that is probably subject to greater and faster change than ever before. 4. There is also a hugely different social science context where academics, charities and commercial organisations are all collecting and using social data to better serve their communities and customers.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Restructuring the Post Office Network
    House of Commons Trade and Industry Committee Stamp of Approval? Restructuring the Post Office Network Third Report of Session 2006–07 Report, together with formal minutes Ordered by The House of Commons to be printed 27 February 2007 HC 276 Published on 12 April 2007 By authority of the House of Commons London: The Stationery Office Limited £12.00 The Trade and Industry Committee The Trade and Industry Committee is appointed by the House of Commons to examine the expenditure, administration, and policy of the Department of Trade and Industry. Current membership Peter Luff MP (Conservative, Mid Worcestershire) (Chairman) Roger Berry MP (Labour, Kingswood) Mr Brian Binley MP (Conservative, Northampton South) Mr Peter Bone MP (Conservative, Wellingborough) Mr Michael Clapham MP (Labour, Barnsley West and Penistone) Mrs Claire Curtis-Thomas MP (Labour, Crosby) Mr Lindsay Hoyle MP (Labour, Chorley) Mr Mark Hunter MP (Liberal Democrat, Cheadle) Miss Julie Kirkbride MP (Conservative, Bromsgrove) Judy Mallaber MP (Labour, Amber Valley) Rob Marris MP (Labour, Wolverhampton South West) Anne Moffat MP (Labour, East Lothian) Mr Mike Weir MP (Scottish National Party, Angus) Mr Anthony Wright MP (Labour, Great Yarmouth) Powers The committee is one of the departmental select committees, the powers of which are set out in House of Commons Standing Orders, principally in SO No 152. These are available on the Internet via www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm/cmstords.htm Publications The Reports and evidence of the Committee are published by The Stationery Office by Order of the House. All publications of the Committee (including press notices) are on the Internet at http://www.parliament.uk/parliamentary_committees/trade_and_industry.cfm.
    [Show full text]
  • Population Trends
    Population Trends Contents Regulars In brief 3 Population Trends: The future; Social Trends: Life Begins at 40!; Multidisciplinary conference on research in mortality; Launch of the ESRC Centre for Population Change; Autumn events for 2011 Census; 2008-based national population projections; Future of life events publications; UK Statistics Authority publishes review of migration statistics; ONS Longitudinal Study refresh; Beyond 2011; Mid-2008 population estimates for Northern Ireland; Regional Trends; Focus on children and young people; The Registrar General’s Review of Scotland’s population; Quick online access to older Population Trends articles Recent and forthcoming releases 9 Demographic indicators 10 Features Older Workers in the UK: variations in economic activity status by socio-economic characteristics, household and caring commitments 11 Ercilia Dini This article outlines the trends in the economic activity status of people aged 50 to 69 in the UK in the last 12 years, and how it varies by demographic and socio-economic characteristics, household circumstances and caring commitments 2011 UK Census Coverage Assessment and Adjustment Methodology 25 Owen Abbott This article outlines the proposed methodology for the 2011 Census and focuses on the research that has been conducted to date to develop improvements and innovations Older International Migrants: who migrates to England and Wales in later life? 33 Marcus Green, Maria Evandrou, Jane Falkingham This article creates a profile of those individuals who migrate to England and
    [Show full text]
  • Annual Report & Resource Accounts 2011/12
    UK Statistics Authority ANNUAL REPORT AND ACCOUNTS 2011/12 UK Statistics Authority ANNUAL REPORT AND ACCOUNTS 2011/12 Accounts presented to the House of Commons pursuant to section 6(4) of the Government Resources and Accounts Act 2000 Accounts presented to the House of Lords by command of Her Majesty Annual Report presented to Parliament pursuant to section 27(2) of the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 Annual Report presented to the Scottish Parliament pursuant to section 27(2) of the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 Annual Report presented to the National Assembly for Wales pursuant to section 27(2) of the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 Annual Report presented to the Northern Ireland Assembly pursuant to section 27(2) of the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 Ordered by the House of Commons to be printed 09 July 2012 HC 57 UKSA/2012/01 Note: UK Statistics Authority referred to as ‘the Statistics Board’ in the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007 The Stationery Office: London Price £29.75 This is part of a series of departmental publications which, along with the Main Estimates 2012/13 and the document Public Expenditure: Statistical Analyses 2012, present the Government’s outturn for 2011/12 and planned expenditure for 2012/13. © Crown copyright 2012 You may re-use this information (excluding logos) free of charge in any format or medium, under the terms of the Open Government Licence. To view this licence, visit www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open- government-licence/ or e-mail: [email protected].
    [Show full text]
  • 1 the Modern Census
    The Modern Census: Evolution, Examples and Evaluation Bernard Baffour1, Thomas King2 and Paolo Valente3* Abstract A national census provides important information on a country’s population that is used in government planning and to underpin the national statistical system. Therefore, the quality of such information is paramount but is not as simple as the crude accuracy of population totals. Furthermore, changes in the pace and nature of modern life, such as the growing geographical mobility of the population, increasingly pose challenges to census practice and data quality. More recently, even the need for a census has been questioned on grounds of financial austerity and widespread availability of alternative population information sources. This article reviews how the modern census originated and how it evolved to confront these challenges, driven by indicators of quality and needs of users, and provides reflections on the future of the census within the national statistical infrastructure. To illustrate our discussions, we use case studies from a diverse range of national contexts. We demonstrate the implications that a country’s needs, circumstances and experiences have on the census approach and practice while identifying the fundamental demographic assumptions. 1. Institute for Social Science Research, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia. 2. School of Education, Communication and Language Sciences, University of Newcastle, Newcastle upon Tyne, United Kingdom. 3. Statistical Division, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE), Palais des Nations, Geneva, Switzerland. * The views expressed here do not represent the views of the United Nations. 1 1. Introduction The aim of a census is to provide relevant population data to users in context, but it follows that this data must meet users’ expectations in terms of quality, appropriately defined.
    [Show full text]
  • Current Data on International Migration and Migrants in the UK: Implications for the Development of the Migration Observatory at Oxford
    Current data on international migration and migrants in the UK: implications for the development of the Migration Observatory at Oxford Alessio Cangiano ESRC Centre on Migration Policy and society June 2010 i Table of Contents Table of Contents ......................................................................................................................................... ii Glossary ....................................................................................................................................................... iv 1. Introduction ......................................................................................................................................... 1 2. Censuses .............................................................................................................................................. 2 3. Survey data .......................................................................................................................................... 4 3.1 International passenger survey ......................................................................................................... 4 3.2 Labour Force Survey .......................................................................................................................... 6 4. Administrative sources ........................................................................................................................ 8 4.1 Visa applications ...............................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Population Bases and the 2011 Census
    Population Trends nr 143 Spring 2011 Population bases and the 2011 Census Steve Smallwood Office for National Statistics Abstract In an increasingly complex society there are a number of different population definitions that can be relevant for users, beyond the standard definition used in counting the population. This article describes the enumeration base for the 2011 Census and how alternative population outputs may be produced. It provides a background as to how the questions on the questionnaire were decided upon and how population bases can be constructed from the Census. Similarities and differences between the information collected across the three UK Censuses (England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) are discussed. Finally, issues around estimating the population on alternative bases are presented. Office for National Statistics 32 Population Trends nr 143 Spring 2011 Introduction In an increasingly complex society there are a number of different definitions that may be relevant to users of population statistics. These include people who live in an area most of the time (resident population), people who work in an area, or who only spend some of their time there. Definitions relate to both who is counted in the population and where geographically those people are counted. An article in 2004 in Population Trends highlighted some of the issues about choosing the enumeration base, discussed what might be collected in the 2011 Census and summarised decisions about enumeration bases for the 1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses1. The article also highlighted that the Census can be enumerated on a ‘persons present’ basis and/or a ‘usual residence’ basis.
    [Show full text]
  • Phase 1 Office for National Statistics, the General Register Office for Scotland, and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency
    Special assessment of the 2011 Censuses in the UK: Phase 1 Office for National Statistics, the General Register Office for Scotland, and the Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency Assessment Report 28 March 2010 © Crown Copyright 2010 The text in this document may be reproduced free of charge in any format or medium providing it is reproduced accurately and not used in a misleading context. The material must be acknowledged as Crown copyright and the title of the document specified. Where we have identified any third party copyright material you will need to obtain permission from the copyright holders concerned. For any other use of this material please write to Office of Public Sector Information, Information Policy Team, Kew, Richmond, Surrey TW9 4DU or email: [email protected] About the UK Statistics Authority The UK Statistics Authority is an independent body operating at arm’s length from government as a non-ministerial department, directly accountable to Parliament. It was established on 1 April 2008 by the Statistics and Registration Service Act 2007. The Authority’s overall objective is to promote and safeguard the production and publication of official statistics that serve the public good. It is also required to promote and safeguard the quality and comprehensiveness of official statistics, and good practice in relation to official statistics. The Statistics Authority has two main functions: 1. oversight of the Office for National Statistics (ONS) – the executive office of the Authority; 2. independent scrutiny
    [Show full text]
  • Beyond 2011 – the Future of Population Statistics? I
    Distr. GENERAL 8 October 2012 WP. 17 ENGLISH ONLY UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR EUROPE CONFERENCE OF EUROPEAN STATISTICIANS Seminar on New Frontiers for Statistical Data Collection (Geneva, Switzerland, 31 October-2 November 2012) Topic (iii): Legal and institutional aspects of using new data sources BEYOND 2011 – THE FUTURE OF POPULATION STATISTICS? Contributed Paper Prepared by Alistair Calder and Andy Teague I. Summary 1. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) is currently considering options for the future production of small area population and small area socio-demographic statistics in England and Wales. The Beyond 2011 programme has been set-up to take a fresh look at alternative approaches that will meet future user needs for ‘Census-type’ data. 2. While innovative ways of carrying out a traditional Census1 will be assessed most of the work is focussing on making better use of existing administrative and other data sources. These data sources are improving and maturing and Beyond 2011 aims to assess whether, properly combined, they will be able to provide a viable and cost effective means of producing the required statistics in future. A full understanding of user needs, quality, costs and the public acceptability of any alternative approaches will all play a part in informing the recommendation on the way forward which will be made in 2014. 3. Any recommendations from the Beyond 2011 work will have implications for all population based statistics in the United Kingdom (UK) and perhaps, in the longer term, for the statistical system as a whole. This paper describes progress to date and future plans.
    [Show full text]
  • Examining the Feasibility of Establishing a Wales Longitudinal
    Ymchwil gymdeithasol Social research Number: 75/2013 Examining the Feasibility of Establishing a Wales Longitudinal Study Views expressed in this report are those of the researcher and not necessarily those of the Welsh Government Rhys Davies WISERD Cardiff University 46 Park Place Cardiff CF10 3BB For further information please contact: Name: Sarah Lowe Department: Knowledge and Analytical Services Welsh Government Cathays Park Cardiff CF10 3NQ Tel: 02920 826229 Email: [email protected] Welsh Government Social Research, 2013 ISBN 978-1-4734-0670-4 © Crown Copyright 2013 Table of Contents Executive Summary Acknowledgements Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 Aims and Objectives of the SimWales Project 5 1.2 Wider Context to the Research Programme 6 1.3 Structure of the Report 11 Chapter 2 Overview of Existing Longitudinal Studies in the UK 2.1 Introduction 12 2.2 ESRC Census Programmes and the UK Longitudinal Studies 13 2.3 England and Wales Longitudinal Study, Office for National Statistics 14 2.4 Scottish Longitudinal Study – National Records of Scotland and University of St Andrews 16 2.5 Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study, Northern Ireland Statistics and Research Agency 19 2.6 Costs and Benefits of Longitudinal Studies 21 2.7 Concluding Comments 24 Chapter 3 ONS and the Wales Longitudinal Study 3.1 Introduction 25 3.2 The Legal Framework of the England and Wales Census 26 3.3 Access Arrangements for ONS Social Survey Micro-Data 28 3.4 Arrangements for Research Access to Census Micro-Data 30 3.5 Data Linking within ONS 32 3.6 Enhancing
    [Show full text]
  • Applications of Record Linkage to Population Statistics in the UK
    Applications of record linkage to population statistics in the UK Dick Heasman, Mark Baillie1, James Danielis, Paula McLeod, Meghan Elkin Office for National Statistics, Fareham, Hampshire, PO15 5RR, United Kingdom [email protected] Abstract: Population statistics in the UK are benchmarked by a decennial Census, the latest one having been held in March 2011. The design of the process to match the Census to the Census Coverage Survey (CCS) is briefly described. It is possible that traditional census-taking will not have the same role in the future of UK population statistics, the creation of a population spine by integrating administrative data sources being one of the alternative options under investigation. Some of the challenges involved in linking such data sources are outlined. Significant questions include the sensitivity of matching procedures to failures of the conditional independence assumption and how to handle missing values. The use of simulated data to research these and other issues in record linkage is presented. Keywords: record linkage, administrative data, population statistics, missing values, conditional independence 1. Introduction Population statistics in the UK are benchmarked by a decennial Census, the latest one having been held in March 2011. To adjust for undercount the Office for National Statistics (ONS), and its associated statistical offices for the devolved administrations of Scotland and Northern Ireland, hold a Census Coverage Survey (CCS) in order to make a final estimate of key population domains using the Dual System Estimator. This process is extremely sensitive to the accuracy of the match between Census and CCS. Section 2 reports briefly on how ONS is performing this matching.
    [Show full text]
  • Census and the Future Provision of Population Statistics in England And
    111 27 March 2014 The census and future provision of population statistics in England and Wales Following the conclusion of an extensive programme of research and a three-month public consultation, the National Statistician has made a recommendation1 to the Board of the UK Statistics Authority on the census and future provision of population statistics in England and Wales. The National Statistician has recommended a predominantly online census in 2021 supplemented by the further use of administrative and survey data. The Board of the Authority has accepted and endorsed the National Statistician’s recommendation. Sir Andrew Dilnot, Chair of the UK Statistics Authority, has today written to Rt. Hon. Francis Maude MP, Minister for the Cabinet Office, to commend the National Statistician’s recommendation to the Government.2 In 2010, the UK Statistics Authority asked the National Statistician and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to review the future provision of population statistics in England and Wales in order to inform the Government and Parliament about the options for the next census. Over the last three years, ONS has undertaken research into new ways of counting the population, reviewed practices in other countries, engaged with a wide range of users, completed a three month public consultation3, and commissioned an independent review of methodology led by Professor Chris Skinner of the London School of Economics.4 Under the Census Act 1920, it is now for the Government and Parliament to determine the arrangements for census-taking in England and Wales in the future. Speaking today, Sir Andrew Dilnot said: “I am very grateful to colleagues in ONS for all their hard work over the last three years to complete a thorough and extensive review of the future provision of population statistics in England and Wales and the options for the next census.
    [Show full text]
  • Recommendations for Improving Research Access to Potentially
    Ymchwil gymdeithasol Social research Rhif/Number: 26/2014 Recommendations for Improving Research Access to Potentially Disclosive Data Author Tanvi Desai London School of Economics Views expressed in this report are those of the researcher and not necessarily those of the Welsh Government) For further information please contact: Sarah Lowe Knowledge and Analytical Services Welsh Government Cathays Park Cardiff CF10 3NQ Tel: 02920 826229 Email: [email protected] Welsh Government Social Research, 2014 ISBN: 978-1-4734-1083-1 © Crown Copyright 2014 Table of Contents Glossary ..................................................................................................................... 3 1. Introduction .......................................................................................................... 4 2. Methods .............................................................................................................. 6 3. Data Access Landscape ...................................................................................... 8 International Landscape ....................................................................................... 11 UK Landscape ...................................................................................................... 12 4. Legal and Ethical Considerations ...................................................................... 15 Data sharing ......................................................................................................... 17 Data linking ..........................................................................................................
    [Show full text]