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THE CPT SPOT NFL Showdown DFS Strategy Guide

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THE CPT SPOT NFL Showdown DFS Strategy Guide THE CPT SPOT NFL Showdown DFS Strategy Guide JUSTIN FREEMAN BRIAN JESTER Host of “The CPT Spot" Podcast Millionaire Maker Champion Contributor at NumberBall.com Co-founder of Occupy Fantasy Featuring Chris Rooney Edited by Eric Ellis THE CPT SPOT NFL Showdown DFS Strategy Guide Table of Contents Contributors 4 Introduction 5 ManagingExpectations–AHealthyApproachtoDFS 7 NutsandBolts:DraftKingsNFLShowdownCaptainMode 9 NutsandBolts:FanDuelNFLSingleGameMVPMode 12 2019:AYearinReview 14 DraftKings 14 FanDuel 18 Research:UnderstandingGameScripts 24 Research:UnderstandingBettingMarkets 26 The Point Spread 27 The Total 27 ImpliedTeamTotals 28 The Moneyline and Implied Odds 29 GettingContrarianwithBettingMarkets 29 Research:UnderstandingCorrelation 30 UtilizingProjections 32 UtilizingMonteCarloSimulations 33 GuaranteedPrizePool(GPP)Strategy 34 TellingaStory 34 CPT/MVP Usage 35 UtilizingCheapPlays 37 ReviewingYourLineup 38 2 Copyright © 2020 THE CPT SPOT. All rights reserved. THE CPT SPOT NFL Showdown DFS Strategy Guide MassMulti-Entry(MME)Strategy 39 Correlations,Rules 39 CPTUsage 40 UsingLeverage,ExposuresvsProjectedOwnership 41 CheapPlayExposure 41 SalaryFloor/Ceilings 42 FineTuning 43 MetricstoConsiderPost-Lock 44 CashGameStrategy&TheStateoftheLobby 45 TellingaStory 45 2QB,2RBFocus 46 Passing/ReceivingTouchdowns 47 RushingTouchdowns 48 CPT/MVPUsage 49 Using“non-traditional’CPTsonDraftKings 50 LeveragingProjectedOwnership 50 ContestSelectionOverview 51 WhatIsContestSelection? 51 Whattypeofplayerareyou? 52 PositionalAnalysis–Floorvs.Ceiling 53 PositionalAverages 54 In-GameContests–2ndHalfand4thQuarter 56 Conclusion 58 Copyright © 2020 THE CPT SPOT. All rights reserved. 3 THE CPT SPOT NFL Showdown DFS Strategy Guide Contributors Justin Freeman is a former offensive lineman at Duke University and is now the host of The CPT Spot podcast and anNFLcontributoratNumberBall.com.Withabackgroundin projections and statistical modeling, Justin possesses a keen understanding of sticky metrics and how to apply them in a varietyofDFSformats.Withasimulationapproachbuiltonthe backofhisRangeFinderprojectionmodel,Justinhasfocusedhis effortsoncreatingpredictivemetricsaroundsinglegameDFS. Brian Jesteristheco-founderofOccupyFantasyand$1million winnerofthe2019Patriots-RamssinglegameDraftKingsSuper BowlGPP.Also$250,000runner-upfinisherinFanDuel’s2019 WorldFantasyFootballChampionship,Brianbringsadifferent approach to daily fantasy sports with his focus on contest selection, lineup construction, and specifically uniqueness in single game contests. Chris Rooney isamultipletimeDFSparticipationtrophywinner. AstaffmemberatOccupyFantasy.com,Chrishasbeenplaying DFSasahobbysince2015–andisaprofitableNFLShowdown cash game player. He’s a lifelong Massachusetts resident and RedSoxaficionado.He’saproudMBAgraduateoftheD’Amore- McKimSchoolofBusinessatNortheasternUniversity. 4 Copyright © 2020 THE CPT SPOT. All rights reserved. THE CPT SPOT NFL Showdown DFS Strategy Guide Introduction ByJustinFreeman Formostpeople,it’sjustanotherMondaynightinOctober.Butnotforme–I’minmidseason fantasyform.Mywifeisasleepinthebedbesidemewithat-shirtoverherfaceasIwatchESPN’s coverageofMondayNightFootballwiththesoundonmute.Iknow,Iknow–whatwifewouldn’t wanttofallasleeptothedulcettonesofBoogerMcFarland’scan’t-misscommentary?Butfor now,wesitinsilence,asIwatchthefinalminutesoftheLosAngelesChargersversustheNew OrleansSaints.Thegameisablowout–thereisnorealreasonwhyanysanepersonwouldstill bewatching. TheSaintsarenursingathree-touchdownleadwithtwominutesontheclock.TheChargersare outoftimeouts.DrewBreesisthreekneeldownsawayfromputtinghisSaintsinthedriver’sseat oftheNFCSouth.Butmyheartisracing.Eyesbouncingbackandforthbetweenthe(lackof) actiononthescreenandthefantasyscoreonmyphone,I’monthevergeofsomethingbig.I’m in5thplaceinaDraftKingsshowdowncontestandthefourplayersabovemeallhavethesame identicallineupasoneanother.Twotenthsofafantasypointseparatemefromturninga$10 entryfeeintoa$100,000topprize.Butfornow,I’montheoutsidelookingin. Breestakeshisfirstkneeforatwo-yard-loss.Hetakesasecondknee.Hetakesathird.TheSaints wineasily.Unfortunately,DrewBreeswasinmylineup.Hehadagreatgamebutthosesixnegative yardssurelycouldn’thavehelpedme.ButIglanceatmyphone.Myeyelidsflickerindisbelief beforelookingagain–I’msittinginfirstplace.I’msomehowthesolewinnerof$100,000.Ispring fromthebed,letout aloud scream,put myhandson myhips,and do mybestrendition of Apache’s“JumpOnIt!”–onethatwouldmakeTheFreshPrinceblush.I’masix-figurewinnerall becauseofsome…kneeldowns? Yousee,whileIhadDrewBreesinmylineup,thefourlineupsabovemehadhimin“TheCPT Spot”andeachofthosekneeldownshurtthem50%morethantheyhurtme.So,whileIlost0.6 fantasypointsingarbagetime,theirlineupslost0.9fantasypoints,makingmethechamp–by 0.1points.Incredible. Thesearetherazorthinmarginsofshowdownslates,thefastestgrowingcontestsindailyfantasy sports. While “Showdown” is technically a DraftKings marketing term for their single-game contests,thetermhasbeencommoditized(likeBand-AidorKleenex)bythoseinthefantasy industrytoapplytothesingle-gamesalarycapformatonallplatforms,tomostnotablyinclude FanDuel.TheFanDuelMVPmodeandtheDraftKingsCPTmodearesimilarinmanywaysbutwith enoughdifferencestobringonmassivechangesinstrategy.Theformatitselfisonlytwoseasons oldasweenterthe2020campaignandweknowthatnewgameformatstendtobringlarger edgesforthemostwell-preparedplayers. Copyright © 2020 THE CPT SPOT. All rights reserved. 5 THE CPT SPOT NFL Showdown DFS Strategy Guide ThiseBookaimstomakeyouawell-preparedandprofitableshowdownplayer.Wewilldiveinto thefinerpointsofthisvolatilegame,coveringbasicandadvanceditemsalike(andeverything inbetween).Wewillgothroughtherulesgoverninggameplayoneachmajorplatformwiththe basicnutsandbolts.Wewilljumpintodeeperconsiderationslikecontestselectionandprojecting gamescripts.Wewillalsotraversethemorenuancedwatersofcorrelationandgametheory,plus muchmore.So,ifyou’llbemyRockyBalboa,I’llbeyourMickey.Laceupyourgloves,stepthrough theropes,andinthewordsofApolloCreed,“Ding.Ding.” 6 Copyright © 2020 THE CPT SPOT. All rights reserved. THE CPT SPOT NFL Showdown DFS Strategy Guide Managing Expectations – A Healthy Approach to DFS ByJustinFreeman Okay, I have a confession. I’ve already told you a lie. I get it – not the best way to start our relationshipbuthearmeout.Thestoryaboutmewinning$100,000thankstothreeDrewBrees kneeldowns was a bit of an intentional charade. It didn’t actually happen. The point of my matadorroutinewastoexciteyouaboutthepossibilitiesofshowdownDFSthatlureusallinand thenbringyoucrashingbackdowntoearthwitharealitycheck.WhileIknowsimilarexperiences happentoDFSplayersnearlyeveryday,theoddsareoverwhelmingthatyouwillNOTbetaking downasix-figureprizeplayingshowdownin2020,nomatterthestrengthofyourstrategy.“You can’twin,Rock!” Believeme,Icanhearyourtrainofthought.“So,wait–nomatterwhatIdo,Istillhaveverylittle chanceatwinningbigmoney?WhydidIbuythisbookagain?”Don’tgettoodownandoutjust yet–Idon’tmeantodashyourhopesanddreams.Afterall,I’veteameduptowritethisbookwith BrianJester,aguywhohaswonalargefieldshowdowntournament.Infact,hedidn’tjusttake home$100,000,heshippedacoolmillionduringthe2019SuperBowl.So,ifyourgoalistolearn howtobeabiggamehunter,wewillputyouinthebestpossibleplacetosucceedthereaswell. Justremembertohaverealisticexpectations.Afterall,thereisalotofgreengrassbetweenthe breakevenofprofitabilityandshippingamillionairemaker.Iwanttoteachyoutobeokaylivingin theblack–profitable,happy,andenjoyingtheprocess.Largeprizepoolsallowourimaginations torunwildwithpossibilitiesfilledwithfalseconfidenceandamisunderstandingofprobabilities. DFSplayerscantakeonthissameoverconfidencebiasbyoverattributingtheimpactoftheirown skill.It’satoughmentalreconciliationwhenyoucansoclearlyenvisionyourusernameonthetop of the leaderboard. Like more conventional DFS formats, there are plenty of contest types across the showdown products.TherearelargefieldGPPs,50/50s,double-ups,multipliers,qualifiers,head-to-heads, three-mans,smallfieldtournaments,andmore.Therearecheapandexpensiveversionsofeach ofthesecontesttypes.Thecheapergamescanbeasaffordableastencentsperentry.Themore expensivegamescanbenorthof$10,000.Therearemanywaystoskinthiscat,butbeforewe do,let’stalkbankroll. Youneedtohavearealhonestdiscussionwithyourselfabouthowdeepinyourpocketbookyou feelcomfortablereachingtoplaythisgame.Thisbookisnotheretobuildupyourconfidence sothatyouendupplayingbeyondyourmeans.WhileDFSismostassuredlyaskillgame,itis importanttorealizetwokeythingsinmanagingyourbankroll.First,ittakesalotlongerthan Copyright © 2020 THE CPT SPOT. All rights reserved. 7 THE CPT SPOT NFL Showdown DFS Strategy Guide youmightthinktoevenbeginrealizingatrueexpectedvalueinDFSthatrepresentsyouractual skilllevel.Inotherwords,theresultsofsimplyplayingseventeenNFLshowdownslatesinayear willnotbethebestindicatorofyourskill.Itmaytakeonehundredslatesormorebeforeyou cangleanevenaslightindicationofanactualizedreturnoninvestment(ROI).Second,youmay notbeasgoodasyouthinkyouare.Itisahumblingthingtotakeintoconsiderationanditisa principlethatIstrugglewithpersonally.Wewillgooverevaluationtechniquestowardtheend ofourlessonbutdon’tconsideritaforegoneconclusionthatyouarethesharpestplayerinthe lobby.Oddsare,thereareuserswhowouldbegiddytoseeyournameasanentrantintheir contest.AndIdon’tsaythattoinsultyou–thesesoftskillsarenotbuiltovernight.Thebottom lineissimpleenoughbuteasiersaidthandone–PLAYWITHINYOURMEANS.Neverplaywitha singledollarthatyoucannotaffordtolose. WhileIbelieveitisimportanttodiscussbankroll,thisbookisnotanattempttoexhaustively describeeverycoreDFSskillforsuccessfulplayers.Iwantustofocusonthesingle-gamecontest
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