THE CPT SPOT NFL Showdown DFS Strategy Guide JUSTIN FREEMAN BRIAN JESTER Host of “The CPT Spot" Podcast Millionaire Maker Champion Contributor at NumberBall.com Co-founder of Occupy Fantasy Featuring Chris Rooney Edited by Eric Ellis THE CPT SPOT NFL Showdown DFS Strategy Guide Table of Contents Contributors 4 Introduction 5 ManagingExpectations–AHealthyApproachtoDFS 7 NutsandBolts:DraftKingsNFLShowdownCaptainMode 9 NutsandBolts:FanDuelNFLSingleGameMVPMode 12 2019:AYearinReview 14 DraftKings 14 FanDuel 18 Research:UnderstandingGameScripts 24 Research:UnderstandingBettingMarkets 26 The Point Spread 27 The Total 27 ImpliedTeamTotals 28 The Moneyline and Implied Odds 29 GettingContrarianwithBettingMarkets 29 Research:UnderstandingCorrelation 30 UtilizingProjections 32 UtilizingMonteCarloSimulations 33 GuaranteedPrizePool(GPP)Strategy 34 TellingaStory 34 CPT/MVP Usage 35 UtilizingCheapPlays 37 ReviewingYourLineup 38 2 Copyright © 2020 THE CPT SPOT. All rights reserved. THE CPT SPOT NFL Showdown DFS Strategy Guide MassMulti-Entry(MME)Strategy 39 Correlations,Rules 39 CPTUsage 40 UsingLeverage,ExposuresvsProjectedOwnership 41 CheapPlayExposure 41 SalaryFloor/Ceilings 42 FineTuning 43 MetricstoConsiderPost-Lock 44 CashGameStrategy&TheStateoftheLobby 45 TellingaStory 45 2QB,2RBFocus 46 Passing/ReceivingTouchdowns 47 RushingTouchdowns 48 CPT/MVPUsage 49 Using“non-traditional’CPTsonDraftKings 50 LeveragingProjectedOwnership 50 ContestSelectionOverview 51 WhatIsContestSelection? 51 Whattypeofplayerareyou? 52 PositionalAnalysis–Floorvs.Ceiling 53 PositionalAverages 54 In-GameContests–2ndHalfand4thQuarter 56 Conclusion 58 Copyright © 2020 THE CPT SPOT. All rights reserved. 3 THE CPT SPOT NFL Showdown DFS Strategy Guide Contributors Justin Freeman is a former offensive lineman at Duke University and is now the host of The CPT Spot podcast and anNFLcontributoratNumberBall.com.Withabackgroundin projections and statistical modeling, Justin possesses a keen understanding of sticky metrics and how to apply them in a varietyofDFSformats.Withasimulationapproachbuiltonthe backofhisRangeFinderprojectionmodel,Justinhasfocusedhis effortsoncreatingpredictivemetricsaroundsinglegameDFS. Brian Jesteristheco-founderofOccupyFantasyand$1million winnerofthe2019Patriots-RamssinglegameDraftKingsSuper BowlGPP.Also$250,000runner-upfinisherinFanDuel’s2019 WorldFantasyFootballChampionship,Brianbringsadifferent approach to daily fantasy sports with his focus on contest selection, lineup construction, and specifically uniqueness in single game contests. Chris Rooney isamultipletimeDFSparticipationtrophywinner. AstaffmemberatOccupyFantasy.com,Chrishasbeenplaying DFSasahobbysince2015–andisaprofitableNFLShowdown cash game player. He’s a lifelong Massachusetts resident and RedSoxaficionado.He’saproudMBAgraduateoftheD’Amore- McKimSchoolofBusinessatNortheasternUniversity. 4 Copyright © 2020 THE CPT SPOT. All rights reserved. THE CPT SPOT NFL Showdown DFS Strategy Guide Introduction ByJustinFreeman Formostpeople,it’sjustanotherMondaynightinOctober.Butnotforme–I’minmidseason fantasyform.Mywifeisasleepinthebedbesidemewithat-shirtoverherfaceasIwatchESPN’s coverageofMondayNightFootballwiththesoundonmute.Iknow,Iknow–whatwifewouldn’t wanttofallasleeptothedulcettonesofBoogerMcFarland’scan’t-misscommentary?Butfor now,wesitinsilence,asIwatchthefinalminutesoftheLosAngelesChargersversustheNew OrleansSaints.Thegameisablowout–thereisnorealreasonwhyanysanepersonwouldstill bewatching. TheSaintsarenursingathree-touchdownleadwithtwominutesontheclock.TheChargersare outoftimeouts.DrewBreesisthreekneeldownsawayfromputtinghisSaintsinthedriver’sseat oftheNFCSouth.Butmyheartisracing.Eyesbouncingbackandforthbetweenthe(lackof) actiononthescreenandthefantasyscoreonmyphone,I’monthevergeofsomethingbig.I’m in5thplaceinaDraftKingsshowdowncontestandthefourplayersabovemeallhavethesame identicallineupasoneanother.Twotenthsofafantasypointseparatemefromturninga$10 entryfeeintoa$100,000topprize.Butfornow,I’montheoutsidelookingin. Breestakeshisfirstkneeforatwo-yard-loss.Hetakesasecondknee.Hetakesathird.TheSaints wineasily.Unfortunately,DrewBreeswasinmylineup.Hehadagreatgamebutthosesixnegative yardssurelycouldn’thavehelpedme.ButIglanceatmyphone.Myeyelidsflickerindisbelief beforelookingagain–I’msittinginfirstplace.I’msomehowthesolewinnerof$100,000.Ispring fromthebed,letout aloud scream,put myhandson myhips,and do mybestrendition of Apache’s“JumpOnIt!”–onethatwouldmakeTheFreshPrinceblush.I’masix-figurewinnerall becauseofsome…kneeldowns? Yousee,whileIhadDrewBreesinmylineup,thefourlineupsabovemehadhimin“TheCPT Spot”andeachofthosekneeldownshurtthem50%morethantheyhurtme.So,whileIlost0.6 fantasypointsingarbagetime,theirlineupslost0.9fantasypoints,makingmethechamp–by 0.1points.Incredible. Thesearetherazorthinmarginsofshowdownslates,thefastestgrowingcontestsindailyfantasy sports. While “Showdown” is technically a DraftKings marketing term for their single-game contests,thetermhasbeencommoditized(likeBand-AidorKleenex)bythoseinthefantasy industrytoapplytothesingle-gamesalarycapformatonallplatforms,tomostnotablyinclude FanDuel.TheFanDuelMVPmodeandtheDraftKingsCPTmodearesimilarinmanywaysbutwith enoughdifferencestobringonmassivechangesinstrategy.Theformatitselfisonlytwoseasons oldasweenterthe2020campaignandweknowthatnewgameformatstendtobringlarger edgesforthemostwell-preparedplayers. Copyright © 2020 THE CPT SPOT. All rights reserved. 5 THE CPT SPOT NFL Showdown DFS Strategy Guide ThiseBookaimstomakeyouawell-preparedandprofitableshowdownplayer.Wewilldiveinto thefinerpointsofthisvolatilegame,coveringbasicandadvanceditemsalike(andeverything inbetween).Wewillgothroughtherulesgoverninggameplayoneachmajorplatformwiththe basicnutsandbolts.Wewilljumpintodeeperconsiderationslikecontestselectionandprojecting gamescripts.Wewillalsotraversethemorenuancedwatersofcorrelationandgametheory,plus muchmore.So,ifyou’llbemyRockyBalboa,I’llbeyourMickey.Laceupyourgloves,stepthrough theropes,andinthewordsofApolloCreed,“Ding.Ding.” 6 Copyright © 2020 THE CPT SPOT. All rights reserved. THE CPT SPOT NFL Showdown DFS Strategy Guide Managing Expectations – A Healthy Approach to DFS ByJustinFreeman Okay, I have a confession. I’ve already told you a lie. I get it – not the best way to start our relationshipbuthearmeout.Thestoryaboutmewinning$100,000thankstothreeDrewBrees kneeldowns was a bit of an intentional charade. It didn’t actually happen. The point of my matadorroutinewastoexciteyouaboutthepossibilitiesofshowdownDFSthatlureusallinand thenbringyoucrashingbackdowntoearthwitharealitycheck.WhileIknowsimilarexperiences happentoDFSplayersnearlyeveryday,theoddsareoverwhelmingthatyouwillNOTbetaking downasix-figureprizeplayingshowdownin2020,nomatterthestrengthofyourstrategy.“You can’twin,Rock!” Believeme,Icanhearyourtrainofthought.“So,wait–nomatterwhatIdo,Istillhaveverylittle chanceatwinningbigmoney?WhydidIbuythisbookagain?”Don’tgettoodownandoutjust yet–Idon’tmeantodashyourhopesanddreams.Afterall,I’veteameduptowritethisbookwith BrianJester,aguywhohaswonalargefieldshowdowntournament.Infact,hedidn’tjusttake home$100,000,heshippedacoolmillionduringthe2019SuperBowl.So,ifyourgoalistolearn howtobeabiggamehunter,wewillputyouinthebestpossibleplacetosucceedthereaswell. Justremembertohaverealisticexpectations.Afterall,thereisalotofgreengrassbetweenthe breakevenofprofitabilityandshippingamillionairemaker.Iwanttoteachyoutobeokaylivingin theblack–profitable,happy,andenjoyingtheprocess.Largeprizepoolsallowourimaginations torunwildwithpossibilitiesfilledwithfalseconfidenceandamisunderstandingofprobabilities. DFSplayerscantakeonthissameoverconfidencebiasbyoverattributingtheimpactoftheirown skill.It’satoughmentalreconciliationwhenyoucansoclearlyenvisionyourusernameonthetop of the leaderboard. Like more conventional DFS formats, there are plenty of contest types across the showdown products.TherearelargefieldGPPs,50/50s,double-ups,multipliers,qualifiers,head-to-heads, three-mans,smallfieldtournaments,andmore.Therearecheapandexpensiveversionsofeach ofthesecontesttypes.Thecheapergamescanbeasaffordableastencentsperentry.Themore expensivegamescanbenorthof$10,000.Therearemanywaystoskinthiscat,butbeforewe do,let’stalkbankroll. Youneedtohavearealhonestdiscussionwithyourselfabouthowdeepinyourpocketbookyou feelcomfortablereachingtoplaythisgame.Thisbookisnotheretobuildupyourconfidence sothatyouendupplayingbeyondyourmeans.WhileDFSismostassuredlyaskillgame,itis importanttorealizetwokeythingsinmanagingyourbankroll.First,ittakesalotlongerthan Copyright © 2020 THE CPT SPOT. All rights reserved. 7 THE CPT SPOT NFL Showdown DFS Strategy Guide youmightthinktoevenbeginrealizingatrueexpectedvalueinDFSthatrepresentsyouractual skilllevel.Inotherwords,theresultsofsimplyplayingseventeenNFLshowdownslatesinayear willnotbethebestindicatorofyourskill.Itmaytakeonehundredslatesormorebeforeyou cangleanevenaslightindicationofanactualizedreturnoninvestment(ROI).Second,youmay notbeasgoodasyouthinkyouare.Itisahumblingthingtotakeintoconsiderationanditisa principlethatIstrugglewithpersonally.Wewillgooverevaluationtechniquestowardtheend ofourlessonbutdon’tconsideritaforegoneconclusionthatyouarethesharpestplayerinthe lobby.Oddsare,thereareuserswhowouldbegiddytoseeyournameasanentrantintheir contest.AndIdon’tsaythattoinsultyou–thesesoftskillsarenotbuiltovernight.Thebottom lineissimpleenoughbuteasiersaidthandone–PLAYWITHINYOURMEANS.Neverplaywitha singledollarthatyoucannotaffordtolose. WhileIbelieveitisimportanttodiscussbankroll,thisbookisnotanattempttoexhaustively describeeverycoreDFSskillforsuccessfulplayers.Iwantustofocusonthesingle-gamecontest