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International Conference On Materials And Energy 2015, ICOME 15, 19-22 May 2015, Tetouan, Morocco, and the International Conference On Materials And Energy 2016, ICOME 16, 17-20 May 2016, La Rochelle, France The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling Earthquake risk assessment of Blida () using GIS Assessing the feasibility of using the heat demand-outdoor Khalida Tadjera*, Mahmoud Bensaibib temperature function for a long-term district heat demand forecast aDepartment of Civil Engineering University Blida 1, Soumaa, Blida 09000, Algeria. bDepartment of Material and Structures High National School of Public Works, Kouba, 16000, Algeria. I. Andrića,b,c*, A. Pinaa, P. Ferrãoa, J. Fournierb., B. Lacarrièrec, O. Le Correc

aIN+ Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy Research - Instituto Superior Técnico, Av. Rovisco Pais 1, 1049-001 Lisbon, Portugal b Abstract Veolia Recherche & Innovation, 291 Avenue Dreyfous Daniel, 78520 Limay, France cDépartement Systèmes Énergétiques et Environnement - IMT Atlantique, 4 rue Alfred Kastler, 44300 Nantes, France The seismic vulnerability of an urban area is of a great deal for local authorities especially those facing earthquakes. So, it is important to have an efficient tool to assess the vulnerability of existing buildings. Blida is located in the north part of Algeria, an area prone to seismicity. It is classified zone III according to the Algerian Seismic Code (RPA99 version 2003). The town is amongAbstract the oldest cities in the north. Build especially during the colonial period, Blida is characterized by vulnerable urban conditions with dense buildings and narrow roads. Using geographic information systems (GIS), the seismic vulnerability of BlidaDistrict is assessed. heating networksFirst the vulnerabilityare commonly indexes addressed of buildings in the literature are calculated, as one then of the making most seismiceffective sce solutionsnarios. Damage for decreasing rates are the determinedgreenhouse taking gas emissionsinto account from the the seismotectonic building sector. aspect These of the systems region require and the high vulnerability investments curves which of structuresare returned commonly through thefound heat insales Blida.. Due The torates the of changed damage climatecaused byconditions the earthqua and kebuilding considered renovation in the scenariopolicies, highlightedheat demand the inhigh the vulnerability future could of decrease, Blida. Theseprolonging results thecan investmentallow elaborating return period.strategic countermeasure plans for the earthquake risk mitigation in the city. The main scope of this paper is to assess the feasibility of using the heat demand – outdoor temperature function for heat demand © forecast.2017 The The Authors. district Published of Alvalade, by Elsevier located Ltd. in Lisbon (Portugal), was used as a case study. The district is consisted of 665 Peer-reviewbuildings thatunder vary responsibility in both construction of the scientific period committee and typology. of ICOME Three 2015 weather and ICOMEscenarios 2016. (low, medium, high) and three district renovation scenarios were developed (shallow, intermediate, deep). To estimate the error, obtained heat demand values were Keywords:compared Blida with ; Earthquake results from ; Seismic a dynamic Vulnerability heat demand ; GIS ;model, Vulnerability previously Index ;developed Scenario ; Vulnerabilityand validated Cur byves the ; Damageauthors. The results showed that when only weather change is considered, the margin of error could be acceptable for some applications (the error in annual demand was lower than 20% for all weather scenarios considered). However, after introducing renovation 1.scenarIntroductionios, the error value increased up to 59.5% (depending on the weather and renovation scenarios combination considered). The value of slope coefficient increased on average within the range of 3.8% up to 8% per decade, that corresponds to the decreaseHuman, ineconomic the number and of heating ecological hours ofcosts 22- 139hand during losses the associatedheating season with (depending earthquake on the disasters combination are of increasing weather and exponentiallyrenovation scenarios and these considered). cost and Onlosses the poseother ahand, syst emicfunction risk intercept to society’s increased political for 7.8and-12.7% economic per decade bases .(depending Even utilizing on the thecoupled most advancedscenarios). technology,The values suggested it is almost could impossib be usedle, to atmodify the present the function state parametersof knowledge, for the to scenariospredict econsidered,xactly when and andimprove where the an accuracy earthquake of heat will demand occur estimations.and how big it will be [1]. An earthquake suddenly hits an area where people are

© 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling. * Corresponding author. Keywords:E-mail address:Heat demand; [email protected]; Climate change

1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of ICOME 2015 and ICOME 2016. 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the Scientific Committee of The 15th International Symposium on District Heating and Cooling. 1876-6102 © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Peer-review under responsibility of the scientific committee of ICOME 2015 and ICOME 2016 10.1016/j.egypro.2017.11.266

10.1016/j.egypro.2017.11.266 1876-6102 646 Khalida Tadjer et al. / Energy Procedia 139 (2017) 645–650 2 K. Tadjer and M. Bensaibi / Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 K. Tadjer and M. Bensaibi / Energy Procedia 00 (2017) 000–000 3 neither prepared nor alerted. Hence, the earthquake often causes huge damage to human society. Different strategies may be taken to mitigate earthquake disasters, based on appropriate risk assessment. Throughout the last thirty years scientific and technical action has been oriented towards the definition of new building-methods that tend to increase buildings’ seismic resistance [2,3]. However, the old structures vulnerability that represent the majority of these buildings, is also quite worrying and its assessment is a considerable task [4,5]. In Algeria, the last earthquakes show that the seismic activity is important. In fact, this activity is linked to faults that illustrate compression movements along the limit of Algeria-Europe’s plates and which mostly touches the north of the country where the biggest towns are situated [8]. The city of Blida as regards its location in a high seismic activity region (south of the Mitidja’s seismogene basin), its high population’s condensation, its generally very old buildings and its administrative importance in the region requires a particular attention concerning its Fig. 3. Sectors division of the study zone in 20 analysis units on GIS protection against that natural phenomenon that highly threatens it and that may hit the town at any moment [9]. In this study, we have assessed an earthquake risk in the city of Blida determined as a convolution of seismic 2.3. General population and housing census hazard (in terms of the surface peak ground acceleration, PGA) and the vulnerability (due to building construction fragility). Population and housing data analysis done for our study’s needs is based on the results of the drawn by the To do this, the different data of the study’s zone have been structured under a geographic information system (GIS) national statistics office (ONS. 2008). In our study zone, the total number of buildings is 2512 for a population of [8]. In our study we have used the vulnerability index method to calculate the vulnerability index of the study area 14997 inhabitants [7]. constructions, to deal with this a software called the Vulnerability Index Program (VIP) has been developed (Bensaibi & al. 2011) [10] . The damages provoked by the earthquake taken into account in the scenarios have been calculated by a GIS established program. 3. Scenarios 3.1. Seismic hazard analysis 2. The Region under Study The different studies of the seismic hazard in the region of Blida have shown the presence of many active sources 2.1. Location of the study area that may provide more or less important earthquakes, Fig. 5. For the study needs, the fault of Blida also called Soumaa fault has been considered as the one that could generate most damages because it crosses Blida’s The situation of Blida, its geographic and tectonic context highly requires a vulnerability analysis of its existing downtown, Fig 4. The maximum magnitude generated by this fault has been estimated by the CRAAG (Astronomy, buildings. The zone under study includes the historical center considered as the oldest district where most of the Astrophysics and Geophysics’ research Centre) at 7.08 on Richter scale [8]. buildings date from the colonial era [6]. This area is mostly composed of single or two storied buildings of which most are in an advanced state of decay. We may find, in the same surroundings, some recent buildings and some others dating from the Ottoman era, Fig. 1 and Fig. 2.

Fig. 4. Active faults for Algiers and Blida region [9] Fig. 5. Blida historical seismicity between 1825 and 2005 [9] Fig. 1. Location of study area Fig. 2. Town center (Didouche Mourad Street) In our study, we have considered two seismic scenarios. The characteristics of these latter are summed up in table 2.2. Sectors division 1and table 2. Table 1. First scenario To make the inventory draw up of the study-zone structures easier, we have divided the study zone into identified sectors inside the soils occupation plan as base-sectors composing the town center. In our case, we have chosen a Seismic source Magnitude Epicenter Attenuation law sectors division including 20 analysis units (district), each representing one area identified with a number. Fig. 3 shows the map of the study area with its districts. Blida fault 7.08 downtown Joyner-Boor (1981)

Table 2. Second scenario Seismic source Magnitude Epicenter Attenuation law

Blida fault 7.08 15 km from downtown Joyner-Boor (1981)