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“Comment About Tsunamis Occurrence in Northern Caribbean”

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“Comment About Tsunamis Occurrence in Northern Caribbean” 1 SOME GLIMPSES OF THE TSUNAMIGENIC POTENTIAL OF THE CARIBBEAN REGION 2 Mario Octavio COTILLA RODRÍGUEZ and Diego CÓRDOBA BARBA Departamento de Física de la Tierra y Astrofísica Facultad de Ciencias Físicas Universidad Complutense de Madrid Ciudad Universitaria, S/N. 28040 Madrid [email protected]; [email protected] 3 “Science is the instrument that human society has to explain natural phenomena.” 4 Index Prólogo Foreword-Prefacio Introduction 1- Review of tsunami studies 2- Tsunami activity in the Pacific region 3- Tsunamis data of the Atlantic Ocean 4- Some information about tectonic activity in the Caribbean region 5- Seismicity and focal mechanisms in the Caribbean plate 6- Tsunamigenic activity of the Caribbean region 7- Final comments Main conclusions Acknowledgements References 5 Prólogo El peligro olvidado, que resucitó y posteriormente ha sido magnificado por Hollywood, así podríamos definir a los tsunamis. Son diferentes los procesos que dan origen a los tsunamis: terremotos que provocan un movimiento con componente vertical del fondo marino; explosiones de islas volcánicas; grandes movimientos de masas en pendientes continentales y/o a la orilla de las costas; caída de meteoritos; los más comunes son los dos primeros. Hay informes sobre grandes tsunamis históricos que han causado mucha destrucción, algunos muy famosos donde quizá el más antiguo conocido sea el de la Isla Santorini en 1650 AC, pasando por los de Lisboa en 1755 y Krakatoa en 1883 hasta los de 1964 en Alaska, de 2004 en Indonesia y 2011 en Tohoku. De estos seis, posiblemente los de más impacto en su momento, dos son de origen volcánico (Santorini y Krakatoa). El experto Dr. Modesto Ortiz Figueroa (2011) ha definido al tsunami como el último de los Titanes, el hijo secreto de Tetis, que se salvó de ser encarcelado en el Tártaro, y se mantuvo oculto por milenios ante los ojos de los humanos. Todo aquel que de cerca lo veía no vivía para contarlo y los testimonios de aquellos que sobrevivían se perdían en las leyendas. Poblados chicos y grandes, ciudades y hasta civilizaciones enteras desaparecieron de la franja costera bajo el manto del Titán. Ésta es una forma poética, pero que describe de manera muy real la historia y los efectos de los tsunamis. En una época donde las redes globales de observación sísmica nos hacen suponer que conocemos las más importantes estructuras tectónicas tsunamigénicas, nos sorprenden los tsunamis de Indonesia y Tohoku que superan los pronósticos previos (particularmente el de Tohoku) debido a elementos que no habían sido adecuadamente evaluados. ¿Cuántos tsunamis de este tipo están perdidos en la historia? No lo sabemos ¿Cuándo será el próximo? Tampoco lo sabemos ¿Dónde será el próximo? Lo descocemos; pero si conocemos que la mayor parte de las fronteras tectónicas son regiones donde se puede producir un terremoto tsunamigénico; incluso se tienen modelos de los tsunamis que pueden causar, las áreas que afectarían y los posibles efectos (altura de olas, etc.). Estos modelos se basan en los conocimientos que se tienen de eventos previos; sin embargo existen demasiadas variables a considerar. Los avances en el conocimiento de los mecanismos de generación de los tsunamis han permitido el desarrollo de sistemas mundiales de alertas para tele-tsunamis que funcionan con éxito, particularmente en el Océano Pacífico. Este sistema emite avisos que contienen altura probable y tiempos de arribo de las olas (tsunami) a las diferentes costas del Pacifico. Esto proporciona un período (dependiendo de la distancia al epicentro) que permite tomar medidas preventivas a lo largo de las costas para mitigar los efectos, particularmente en pérdidas de vidas humanas. Sin embargo, cuando el tsunami es local (distancia menor de 200 km) el único posible aviso o alerta es el terremoto en sí mismo. La primera ola tardará, como máximo, de 15 a 20 minutos en llegar. Para diseñar medidas de prevención y mitigación de los efectos de tsunamis locales se requiere que los países con costas cerca de los bordes tectónicos, potencialmente tsunamigénicos, realizan estudios y evalúen el peligro que esos fenómenos representan. Actualmente esto se realiza de manera sistemática en casi todo el mundo. No obstante, existe una región que también está expuesta a este peligro, y que no ha sufrido recientemente la ira del Titán. Esa región es afectada frecuentemente por huracanes, terremotos y erupciones volcánicas: El Arco de las Antillas Mayores, y éste es el objeto de estudio del presente libro, que será indudablemente una herramienta básica para el diseño de investigaciones que permitan caracterizar mejor el peligro tsunamigénico. 6 En estas islas del Mar Caribe viven más de 25 millones de personas y están conformadas básicamente por 5 países: Cuba, Jamaica, Haití, República Dominicana y Puerto Rico; pero, lamentablemente, ninguno de ellos está en el nivel de los países desarrollados, por lo que sus recursos económicos son muy limitados. Esto realza la importancia de iniciar de manera sistemática estudios para evaluar el peligro y el riesgo de los tsunamis en la región. Este libro recorre, con siete capítulos, un tema de mucha importancia y actualidad sobre todo para un territorio insular y disperso. Está ilustrado con 15 figuras y tiene 41 tablas que apoyan la exposición del trabajo. Acompañan al texto un glosario con los términos científicos empleados en el estudio de los tsunamis. También hay un extenso catálogo de 522 tsunamis documentados para todo el planeta. El lector encontrará a su alcance más de 400 referencias, todas ellas empleadas en la confección del trabajo; y que muestran no hay un texto similar para la región. Así mismo presenta una interesante discusión, muy bien fundamentada, sobre la calidad de la información de estos fenómenos en el Caribe, y en particular de Cuba. Esta obra es indiscutiblemente un importante paso. Dr. Francisco Javier NUÑEZ CORNU Universidad de Guadalajara México 7 Foreword / Prefacio Foreword: A tsunami potential study in the Caribbean region is presented and in particular to the Septentrional area. The region is part of the Atlantic Ocean. This large basin has a minor tsunamigenic potential than the Pacific Ocean. The Caribbean area is better known for its hurricanes and quite less for its tsunamis. Nevertheless, historically the amount of deaths [~9,000] connected with tsunamis in the Caribbean is very important. In fact there are well documented ~120 tsunamis [local and regional]. Also, there are some sea waves generated by teletsunamis like of the 01.11.1755 of the SW Portugal. They took ~7-8 hours to arrive. In the Caribbean there are ten tsunamigenic sources: 1) Mona Canyon; 2) Puerto Rico trench; 3) Mona trench; 4) Septentrional fault; 5) Pedro Bank; 6) Jamaica area; 7) Western Caribbean Sea [Gulf of Honduras-Panama]; 8) Lesser Antilles arc; 9) Central America trench; 10) Southern Caribbean plate [Panama-Colombia-Venezuela region]. Septentrional Caribbean is distinguished by two large active tectonic branchs: 1) Northern: La Española-Puerto Rico-Islas Vírgenes; 2) Southern: La Española-Puerto Rico. From our point of view the second one is the area of highest hazard and Puerto Rico Island is under the major risk. However, the majority of countries in the Caribbean region have not the scientific and technical resources to manager suitable and sure tsunami plans, and much less to stanch the economic losses. Prefacio: Se presenta un estudio del potencial de generación de tsunamis en el Caribe y en particular para el Caribe Septentrional. El Caribe es parte del Océano Atlántico, una cuenca marina que tiene un potencial tsunamigénico menor que el Océano Pacífico. El Caribe es más conocido por la ocurrencia de huracanes y ciclones tropicales que por tsunamis, sin embargo la cifra de fallecidos por ese último fenómeno es de ~9,000. La región Caribe no tiene grandes terremotos con tsunamis. Sin embargo, muchos tsunamis han ocurrido en él, y se contabiliza una cifra aproximada de 120. La experiencia del tsunami del 01.11.1755 [SW de Portugal] demuestra que las olas alcanzaron la región caribeña 7-8 horas después. Está establecido que el Caribe ha sido afectado por tsunamis de fuentes cercanas y lejanas. El Caribe se distingue por 10 zonas tsunamigénicas: 1) Cañón de la Mona, 2) Fosa de Puerto Rico, 3) Fosa de la Mona, 4) Falla Septentrional, 5) Banco de Pedro, 6) Jamaica, 7) Mar Caribe Occidental [Golfo de Honduras-Panamá], 8) Arco de las Antillas Menores, 9) Fosa de América Central, 10) Caribe Meridional [Panamá-Colombia-Venezuela]. En la parte septentrional del Caribe se distinguen dos segmentos activos: 1) Zona Norte: La Española-Puerto Rico-Islas Vírgenes; 2) Zona Sur: La Española-Puerto Rico. También en el Caribe hay zonas donde ocurren terremotos fuertes, pero no siempre se acompañan por tsunamis. Sin embargo, la mayoría de los países de la región no tiene los recursos necesarios para manejar, adecuadamente, los planes de protección contra estos fenómenos naturales, y mucho menos para restañar las pérdidas económicas. “It is not worthy of the man to accept with naturalness what is own of the Nature.” Alexander von Humbolt 8 Introduction “Scientists say that they can indicate the way to preserve life and property of the society whereas politicians always decide.” 9 Introduction Our interest is to show the tsunami potential in the Caribbean region [a marine basin of ~2,760.00 km2]. It is a typical area where the earthquakes occurrence produced important number of deaths and economic damages. Also, there are some volcanoes in the eastern and western end of the plate. All these phenomena are mainly connected to the hazard in the islands and have been study by other authors. However, tsunamis can be considered another natural danger, and it is our goal. Tsunami [from the Japanese= harbor wave] is a gravitational sea wave produced by any large-scale, short-duration disturbance of the ocean floor, principally by a shallow submarine earthquake, but also by submarine earth movement, subsidence, or volcanic eruption.
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