“...Knowing Whether Two and Two Do Make Four…” with an International Client Portfolio, We Have Grown to Become the Leading Specialist P&I Brokers
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2020/21 January Edition “...knowing whether two and two do make four…” With an international client portfolio, we have grown to become the leading specialist P&I brokers. Our unparalleled client-led approach is backed by a total commitment to a continuing investment in people and to the development of the Lockton Global Marine Network. The result is a unique and unrivalled service. P&I Market Review | 2020/2021 Booklet A Contents - Booklet A 1. Introduction p3 2. “The question is one of knowing p4 whether two and two do make four…” 3. Club Data p8 The American Club p10 Britannia p12 Gard p14 Japan p16 The London p18 North of England p20 Shipowners p22 Skuld p24 The Standard p26 Steamship Mutual p28 The Swedish Club p30 UK P&I Club p32 West of England p34 4. Non-International Group and p37 Fixed Premium Data P&I Market Review | 2020/2021 2 1. Introduction Welcome to our 2020 P&I Market Review! And what a year it has been - for us all. True to form, the P&I world has refused to shy away from the challenges posed this year The shift to the virtual office space during the pandemic has undeniably changed just about and provided unprecedented support to the shipping community throughout the COVID-19 every method in which we all work. Whilst we have been able to see only a handful of clients pandemic. The International Group of P&I Clubs has resisted a hardening market for several face-to-face, we are proud to have continued providing our unfaltering support to clients years and, perhaps if it were not for the pandemic, it would have held on for a few years and received your support in return. Hopefully, this Market Review supplies you with all the longer. However, almost all Clubs have conceded to announcing substantive general increases information you need to consider the upcoming P&I 2021/22 renewals and how we can assist. across the board. Whether or not these increases are needed remains a divided opinion between those who Alistair Rivers see record-level free reserves as a support mechanism to assist ship operators during these Lockton Global Head of Marine & Transportation difficult times, and others who accept the need for underlying premium rates to rise in response to a new claims cycle. One cannot directly compare the P&I market to the rapidly hardening H&M market without commoditising it; something which we ourselves would be hesitant to do given the stark difference in the nature and scope of both product and service. However, therein lies our role: to review, to analyse, to advise and to advocate for each of our clients’ individual interests, especially during such uncertain times. 3 1 | Introduction 2. “The question is one of knowing whether two and two do make four…” The 2019/20 policy year marked the beginning of a new, long anticipated claims cycle. “2020 Pool claims (claims in excess of USD 10m) are extremely high and are higher in development Whether right or wrong, the impression was that the Clubs played a waiting game by at this point when compared to 2018 and 2019. This will be the third year of higher than normal Pool announcing low general increases, or indeed none at all, testing how their finances would claims. All Clubs are facing pressure on their finances from their share of the collective Pool and this is a cope against the increasing number and cost of claims. significant cost that should not be overlooked.” (International Group Club Chief Underwriting Officer) The reliance on this strategy to retain existing and attract new business against other Clubs worked for some, but now seems to have reached breaking point. Further the hardening commercial market is impacting the Clubs’ own individual reinsurance purchasing (whether for within retention protection or for non-poolable covers) Last year, the average general increase across all Clubs “Our non-mutual extra cover facilities are under rate pressure for the second year due to increases from was 6.6%, with an achieved increase said to be close our reinsurers with the market looking to achieve 15-20% increases on good performing records with further hardening predicted later in the year. We can mitigate this by taking extra retention and will always to 3%. try to dilute any additional cost to our shipowners but the increases are substantial.” (International Group Club Head of Reinsurance) This year, the momentum of the new cycle appears to have increased; the Clubs have announced an average of 6% general increases across the International Group, and only three In previous years, Clubs have been fortunate to off-set many of these losses against the Clubs issuing a zero general increase. investment performance of their free reserves. However, no insurer should rely on such results as a sole defence against this cycle. COVID-19 has proven to be a reason why this is the case, Whilst the apparent need for more premiums may be disappointing news to the ship with many Clubs reporting losses anywhere between USD 50m and USD 100m in a matter operating community at large (our clients will take some comfort that we will be advocating of weeks due to the downturn in the worldwide stock markets – albeit with strong recoveries vigorously on their behalf), the claims performance and the threat of financial rating being made within a few months. downgrades seems to justify the need for more premium. Pool claims have deteriorated significantly, with the announcement of over 15 new claims, including the Gulf Livestock 1 tragedy off Japan, the Diamond Princess passenger COVID-19 quarantine, and the deterioration of claims from previous policy years, such as the Golden Ray. P&I Market Review | 2020/2021 4 This again caused the widening margins between the strength and performance of the And, of course, the financial results must also be balanced with the quality and flexibility of Clubs: those with defensive, low-risk portfolios were less affected than those with high-risk service received – no ship operator is likely to want either only one or the other. A strong exposures. Furthermore, those that chose to sell investments soon after the fall in a bid for financial result without the quality service required to support an operator in its time of need protection against further deterioration may not have made the same recovery as those is as unhelpful as a supportive service without adequate finances to pay those claims. that stood their ground. Much like the social and economic divide between peoples of entire nations exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic (which we comment on in more detail We cannot stress enough that we do not endorse or comment on the merit of these below), it seems that the same trend may arguably apply to the Clubs. practices, nor do we advocate for any one Club. But what is clear is that any result, whether it be an individual members’ record or an entire Club’s combined ratio, must be analysed, Against that background, it is now more important than ever to review results and analyse discussed, justified and reasoned. Only then can a client be fully comforted that they are the information being provided, rather than taking it at face value. The perfect example is partnered with a suitable Club / insurer. That is where we come in and what the role of a the combined ratio. The reasons for achieving a combined ratio are not harmonious across quality insurance consultant should be. the International Group; it will largely depend on the individual practices and strategy of that specific Club. The viral pandemic of COVID-19 has unquestionably changed everything for everyone – whether it be limited to the method of communicating or be a substantial change in work For example, Clubs with a flexible claims policy, rather than literally and strictly applying roles and businesses. The entire shipping industry is no exception and, one could argue, has the Rules as they are written is likely to have higher claims expenses and, therefore, a worse been more affected than many others. combined loss ratio. Or Clubs that adopt a ‘worst case scenario’ reserving practice are likely to have an adverse effect on an individual member’s renewal negotiations because the final The sector most hurt by the pandemic is undeniably the amount of their claims can only improve. On the other hand, it is likely to have a positive impact on that Club’s combined loss ratio because the basis on which renewal premium is cruise and passenger ferry business. calculated and budgeted is based on a worse-case scenario, so can only improve. Arguably, this is in contrast to a ‘most likely outcome’ reserving policy. Entire fleets have been laid up where it has been physically impossible to run services and with ever-changing air-bridges and quarantine impositions, it is difficult to estimate when services can be resumed. 5 2 | “....whether two and two do make four...” The offshore sector has faced a double hit of near historic low oil prices along with the contracts to reach a port where it is safe to travel, others potentially exposed to higher risk of general global uncertainty but thankfully, some sectors have been largely unaffected by transmission in ports where protective measures are less stringent than first thought and the the direct effects of COVID-19. Some may even have seen a benefit from, ironically for sheer anguish about boarding a vessel not knowing if, when or how to return to their families. example, the subsequent oil crisis which saw an increase in the movement of oil from the Middle East and the effective re-deployment of vessels as floating storage in response to the But it is in circumstances such as these that the advantages of the mutual system shine contango effect.