FACTSHEET: A Closer Look at Battleground

“In not too many years, Texas could switch from being all Republican to all Democrat. If that happens, no Republican will ever again win the White House. New York and California are for the foreseeable future unalterably Democrat. If Texas turns bright blue, the Electoral College math is simple … The Republican Party would cease to exist. We would become like the Whig Party. Our kids and grandkids would study how this used to be a national political party. ‘They had Conventions, they nominated Presidential candidates. They don’t exist anymore.’”

– US Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX)

38 votes – and the White House

With its size and diversity, Texas has the potential to be a leading state that sets the tone on the policy issues of our day – as well as serving as an economic driver for the nation. And with 38 electoral votes at stake, Texas could virtually remake the presidential campaign map. But the current political landscape in the state is keeping Texas – and its residents – from meeting its promise and being relevant at a national level.

That’s why grassroots volunteers and political activists in the Lone Star State are coming together in Battleground Texas, a movement to make Texas matter again. Battleground Texas will use lessons learned in states like Virginia, , and – organizing and engaging our communities – to ensure local elections are hotly-contested and anyone who wants to be the President of the United States will have to compete in the Lone Star State.

Over the next several years, Battleground Texas will focus on expanding the electorate by registering more voters – and mobilizing Texans who are already registered but who have not been engaged in the democratic process.

Changing demographics – nationwide and in the Lone Star State

The 2008 and 2012 presidential elections showed that “new America” should be engaged in the democratic process – and that these communities can have a dramatic impact on political outcomes when they are.

• In fact, in November 2012, approximately three in ten voters nationwide were minorities – and 93 percent of African American voters, 71 percent of Latino voters and 73 percent of Asian American voters, the nation’s fastest-growing minority, chose the President over Romney. • At the same time, young people, women, , and Latinos comprised the overwhelming majority of all new voters in 2012 – and 55 percent of women voters nationwide supported President Obama in 2012 and 56 percent in 2008. • A concerted organizing effort by the Obama campaign in states like Colorado, Florida and Nevada helped drive up voter participation among these groups to unprecedented levels in both 2008 and 2012. • Treating Virginia like a battleground state in 2008 helped deliver the Commonwealth for the Democratic candidate for the first time in 44 years.

With its growing diversity, Texas has the opportunity to drive a sea change as well in a way that was never before possible in the state.

• At the most basic level, the latest census statistics show fully 56% of the Texas population is Latino, Asian-American, African-American, or another minority group – yet we’re not seeing anything close to this kind of diversity reflected in the people who represent Texans in public office. • The non-white vote is growing rapidly in Texas. Even if the Democratic Party does nothing for the next 8 years, Democrats will gain a net 2 percentage points just due to demographic change. • There is plenty of room to increase voter participation among key communities in Texas – 39% of eligible voting age Latinos voted in 2012. • In 2008, 47 percent of women voters in Texas supported Obama – and women made up 53% of Texas voters.

Texas has the second largest share of Latino eligible voters Nationwide

New Mexico

Texas

California

Arizona

Florida Of the top 10 Nevada states with

Colorado New York New Jersey

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

The Battleground Texas approach has worked in other states

In 2008 and 2012, registering more voters and engaging growing minority communities dramatically increased participation by these groups in competitive states like Colorado, Florida and Nevada. • From 2004 to 2012, Democratic voter registration and get-out-the-vote efforts helped drive up voter participation among African-Americans in CO from 49% to 56% of the voting age population, from 55% to 58% in FL and from 52% to 62% in NV. • Over the same time period, voter participation increased from 46% to 52% of the Latino voting age population in CO, from 57% to 62% in FL and from 48% to 52% in NV.

The support of a growing Latino population in particular helped drive Democratic victories in many competitive states in 2012 – including in CO, OH, NV, NM, VA, and FL. Yet in Texas, as the Latino population has grown, participation in elections has lagged, with just 55% of voting age Latinos registered in 2012.

In Texas, Latino support for Democrats has also been on the rise

100% 43% 49% 35% 29% 80%

60%

40% 55% 50% 63% 70% 20%

0% 2000 2004 2008 2012

DEM GOP

Source: VNS Exit Polling 11/00; CNN Exit Pilling 11/04, 11/08; Latino Decisions Exit Polling 11/12

While both registration and turnout among Latinos in Texas trails the general population, this community – and others – could ultimately reshape the electoral landscape. Support for Democrats among Latino voters has been on the rise both nationally and in Texas in recent years. In 2012, 71% of Latino voters nationally supported President Obama – up from 56% who supported President Carter in 1980. And in Texas, fully 70% of Latino voters supported President Obama in 2012 – up from the 55% that supported Al Gore in 2000.

Factor in that young Latinos support Democrats at even higher levels and will drive high levels of support in future elections – and that the GOP brand was damaged among Latino voters in 2012 – and it is clear the potential for a strong grassroots organization and involvement to make a difference in Texas in this community.

Florida: A prime example The lack of competitive campaigning in Texas in recent cycles means that even basic voter registration and engagement efforts should go a long way toward changing the political landscape in the Lone Star State. In Florida, a concerted program in the 2008 presidential race yielded dramatic results, driving up voter registration among both the African-American and Latino voting age population.

Turning Texas into a battleground

Change in Texas won’t happen overnight. Turning the state into a battleground that matters both locally and nationally will take a long-term strategy and a sustained push from grassroots activists.

But grassroots voices are already changing this country on a scale that was unheard of just a few years ago – and that kind of organization and local activism can do the same in Texas.

For more information on Battleground Texas, contact [email protected].