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Lafargeholcim Ltd 9 March 2018 New Growth Strategy Should Underpin Credit Quality

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Lafargeholcim Ltd 9 March 2018 New Growth Strategy Should Underpin Credit Quality CORPORATES ISSUER IN-DEPTH LafargeHolcim Ltd 9 March 2018 New growth strategy should underpin credit quality » 'Building for Growth' strategy for 2018-2022 should support the current rating. We welcome global building materials producer LafargeHolcim Ltd's (Baa2 negative) RATINGS shift to a disciplined growth strategy after years of focusing on asset disposals to reduce LafargeHolcim Ltd leverage. The previous strategy was unsuccessful because it has not sufficiently delevered LT issuer rating Baa2 the company and was overly skewed towards shareholder returns. ST issuer rating P-2 Senior Unsecured Baa2 » Profitability of aggregates and ready-mix concrete businesses lags best-in-class Outlook Negative peers. LafargeHolcim's public recognition of its profitability gap with competitors in aggregates and ready-mix, such as HeidelbergCement AG (Baa3 stable), CRH plc (Baa1 KEY METRICS: stable) or independent producers (not vertically integrated in cement), for the first time is LafargeHolcim Ltd an important first step to address the issue. CHF in millions 2016 2017 Revenue 26,904 26,129 » Plan to improve cash conversion should help fund growth. We welcome EBITDA 5,529 5,431 LafargeHolcim's target to improve cash conversion as measured by FCF/recurring RCF/net debt 20.4% 17.4% EBITDA to around 40% by 2022 from 28% in 2017. Free cash flow generation has been Debt/EBITDA 4.1x 4.0x historically weak. In 2017, LafargeHolcim had a Moody's-defined reported FCF (i.e. after dividends) of around CHF70 million for a Moody's defined reported EBITDA of around CHF5.7 billion. An improvement in FCF is needed to fund the company's organic growth programme. Contacts Stanislas Duquesnoy +49.69.7073.0781 » Focus on Products and Solutions business to reduce capital intensity. Peers such VP-Sr Credit Officer as Compagnie de Saint-Gobain SA (Baa2 stable) have also set themselves the objective [email protected] of reducing capital intensity to generate more return on invested capital in a low-return Matthias Hellstern +49.69.70730.745 environment. Both Saint-Gobain and CRH have shown that a high level of vertical MD-Corporate Finance integration (both on the heavy and light side of the industry) can be a very successful [email protected] business model. Taisiia Alieksieienko +49.69.7073.0707 Associate Analyst » LafargeHolcim should benefit from sound market conditions during the next 12 [email protected] to 18 months. However we are cautious about the company's forecast revenue growth of 3% to 5% per annum and a recurring EBITDA growth of at least 5% per annum until CLIENT SERVICES 2022, which implies a benign macroeconomic environment for the next five years. That Americas 1-212-553-1653 would be quite exceptional because we are already nine years into the recovery from the Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 global financial crisis. We are concerned that LafargeHolcim, which is weakly positioned in Japan 81-3-5408-4100 its rating category, has not built more headroom ahead of a potential downturn. EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES Return to disciplined growth after several years of asset sales LafargeHolcim Ltd (Baa2 negative), the world's largest building materials producer by volumes, presented its new five-year strategy called 'Building for Growth' to investors on 2 March 2018. We welcome the company's return to disciplined organic and external growth which, alongside its continued commitment to the investment-grade rating, should support credit quality. The strategy covers the period 2018-2022. LafargeHolcim's approach under new Group Chief Executive Jan Jenisch, who took the post in September 2017, follows several years of shrinking the group's operations (both at Lafarge SA and LafargeHolcim Ltd, which was created by the merger of Lafarge and Holcim in 2015). As illustrated in Exhibit 1, the pro forma revenue and EBITDA of LafargeHolcim has almost halved since 2010 while the pro forma EBITDA margin has not improved significantly. We believe that this strategy has not convincingly addressed the company's objective to restore a stronger balance sheet to sustain its solid investment-grade rating and to improve its return on invested capital (ROIC). The group's reported net debt/ recurring EBITDA has only marginally improved to 2.4x at the end of 2017 from 2.8x pro forma 2014. LafargeHolcim's ROIC was around 5.8% in 2017, below its weighted average cost of capital of 7%-7.5% which indicates that invested capital is not being used effectively. ROIC is also well below the company's target of exceeding 8% presented as part of its strategic update to investors. LafargeHolcim's credit metrics have been below the requirements to maintain the current rating category since the merger of the two companies in July 2015. Exhibit 1 LafargeHolcim has scaled back its operations substantially over time without a significant improvement in profitability Comparison of LafargeHolcim/Lafarge pro forma revenue, EBITDA and EBITDA margin for 2010 and 2017 (revenue and EBITDA in CHF billions) Revenues EBITDA EBITDA margin 50 24% 45 40 23% 35 30 25 22% 20 15 21% 10 5 0 20% Fiscal year 2010 Fiscal year 2017 Sources: Lafarge SA, Holcim Ltd, LafargeHolcim Ltd The high level of debt on the balance sheet (reported net debt of CHF14.3 billion at 31 December 2017) and high invested capital (around CHF46 billion) resulted from the primarily debt-funded acquisition of Egyptian cement producer Orascom, which was done in 2008 based on very high valuation multiples at the peak of the construction cycle. That forced Lafarge SA and LafargeHolcim into a deleveraging strategy through shrinking the group's balance sheet rather than through addressing the numerator of the leverage equation, the earnings. While this strategy probably made sense in the aftermath of the global financial crisis due to very tough market conditions, it is now time to capitalise on LafargeHolcim's forecast of a 2%-3% annual growth in cement consumption until 2030 to address the return side of the equation. LafargeHolcim has four main levers for growth: more selective investments in markets with strong growth potential, a more aggressive strategy in aggregates and ready-mix concrete, development of its downstream Products and Solutions business and bolt-on acquisitions. While the company announced the divestment of another CHF2 billion of assets on 2 March, it has indicated that it will reinvest the proceeds in the business to support operations with the strongest growth prospects. We do not see the reinvestment of divestment proceeds as credit negative per se, as long as they are used for organic projects or bolt-on acquisitions that add value and profits. This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. 2 9 March 2018 LafargeHolcim Ltd: New growth strategy should underpin credit quality MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES We also welcome the group's continued commitment to its investment grade-rating, the discontinuation of the CHF1 billion share buyback programme after CHF581 million had been spent. The dividend at CHF2 per share remains very high compared to the FCF generation ability, but we take comfort from the fact that, for the time being, it is not going to be increased. We believe that investors should not read too much into LafargeHolcim's revised wording on its commitment to an investment-grade rating from a strong investment-grade rating previously. We believe that this change was driven by the weak rating positioning of LafargeHolcim rather than by a shift to more aggressive financial policies. Acknowledgment of profitability gap in aggregates and ready-mix concrete is first step to fixing it As part of its strategy presentation, LafargeHolcim also acknowledged that profitability in its aggregates and ready-mix concrete businesses lags that of best-in-class peers such as HeidelbergCement AG (Baa3 stable), CRH plc (Baa1 stable) and independent producers (not vertically integrated in cement) (see Exhibit 2). LafargeHolcim's aggregates and ready-mix concrete businesses together contributed 35% of group revenue in 2017. It is the first time the company has talked about the profitability gap, which is a good sign in itself and an important first step in addressing the problem. LafargeHolcim intends to close the gap by appointing dedicated management teams for these two activities with full profit and loss (P&L) responsibility and setting independent financial targets to avoid the activities serving only as by-products of the group's cement business. The closing of this gap bears execution risk. Exhibit 2 LafargeHolcim's aggregates activities are less profitable than HeidelbergCement's 2017 EBITDA margin for aggregates business of LafargeHolcim and HeidelbergCement 30.00% 25.00% 20.00% 15.00% 10.00% 5.00% 0.00% LafargeHolcim HeidelbergCement We have not included a comparison of RMC and other activities as we believe that the composition of the segments is very different for both companies Sources: LafargeHolcim, HeidelbergCement Plan to improve cash conversion should help fund growth LafargeHolcim's free cash flow (FCF) generation has been historically weak with a 2017 Moody's-defined reported FCF of only around CHF70 million for a Moody's-defined reported EBITDA of around CHF5.7 billion (see Exhibit 3). Arguably cement production is a
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