A perspecve on climate and oceanographic drivers of coral resilience in the Halmahera Cabell Davis1, Anne Cohen1, R. Dwi Susanto2, Rubao Ji1, Robert Beardsley1, Changsheng Chen3, David McKinnie4 Indonesian Collaborators: Zainal Arifin5, Augy Syahailatua5, Yuda Cahyarini5, Sugiarta Wirasantosa6, Ridwan Djamaluddin7

Introducon Upwelling and coral growth – Global evidence Field campaign warming and acidificaon are increasing the frequency of coral bleaching Our data from tropical Pacific and Central reveal strong correlaons In 2015 (Feb and Aug), we will run oceanographic transects through the three main events, slowing skeletal growth, and increasing dissoluon of corals and reef matrix. between water column Chla and both skeletal and ssue growth of corals (Fig. 5). study sites, where corals will be sampled (Fig. 7). The sites represent a producvity Emerging evidence suggests certain systems may be more resilient than others. gradient across the HSRA, having Chla levels that are always low (S1, <0.2 μg/l) and

High resilience of the Halmahera Sea, Raja Ampat, (HSRA) area Fig 5 Tissue layer seasonally (Feb vs Sep) varying (S2, range 0.2-0.7μg/l; S3, range 0.3-0.95μg/l) (Fig. 7). thickness (le) and Fig. 7 (le) annual calcificaon The Halmahera Sea, Raja Ampat area HSRA, in Oceanographic survey

rate (right) of track (white line) and Porites corals, eastern (Fig. 1) appears to have key locaons of proposed ploed against (μg/l) study sites(S1-S3) elements of coral reef resilience: good SeaWiFS Chla or in

Chla across the HSRA. situ measurements (right) SeaWiFS Chla reproducon, connecvity and recruitment, and where available7 (μg/l) in the HSRA strong recovery from localized damage1-4. during two monsoon SeaWiFS seasons (climatology; Fig. 1 Locaon of HSRA black = Feb, white = Hypotheses S1 S2 S3 Sep). Highest Biodiversity 1) Monsoon-driven upwelling in the HSRA enriches plankton concentraons, Oceanographic sampling, large vessel 11 Considered the global epicenter of marine biodiversity, the HSRA harbors over 1300 enhancing coral growth and resilience to bleaching and acidificaon. o Video Plankton Recorder (Fig 8): T, S, NO3, Chla, turbidity, PAR, plankton, parcles. o Moored ADCP and T/S sensors at S1-S2 (Feb through Sep). species of fish, 700 mollusk species, and ~600 hard coral species (3/4 of known 2) Coral growth is linked to decadal-mul-decadal changes in monsoon strength. o CTD rosee casts and plankton net tows for chemistry and plankton species. zooxanthellate hermatypic scleracnian species) (Fig. 2). Fig. 8. Video Plankton Recorder (VPRII) A Proposed Study samples hydrography, nitrate, fluorescence, Objecves turbidity, PAR, and images phytoplankton, zooplankton, and marine snow. It has o Field and modeling studies to beer understand the oceanography of the HSRA automac image recognion and real-me  Hydrography and circulaon underway data display.

Veron et al, 2011  Seasonal upwelling and internal waves  Enhancement of nutrients and plankton Coral and local environmental sampling, small vessel o Measure coral growth and resilience o Cores from replicate massive corals at each site each season  across the HSRA’s natural gradient in water column producvity o Measure ssue volume, skeletal growth, and stress bands (Fig. 9)  during both the NW and SE monsoons o Local nutrient, carbonate, and plankton sampling at each site near corals  over decades to centuries from long skeletal cores Fig. 2 Global biodiversity of hard corals, showing epicenter in HSRA5 with example images (Davis). o Relate observed paerns coral growth and resilience to field and model data of oceanographic variables (T, S, currents, Chla, turbidity, PAR, N, P, Z, D) at each site. Monsoon-driven mesotrophic water column producon

This high biodiversity is accompanied by monsoon-driven enrichment of HSRA Oceanography poorly known phytoplankton biomass (Fig. 3), with high zooplankton and fish biomass. The HSRA is thought to be the main entry point of S Pacific water to the Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) (Fig. 2), but data for this area are sparse and it is the least known (Wet) (Dry) (NW winds) (SE winds) part of the ITF8. Likewise monsoon-driven Ekman upwelling has not been studied in this despite its apparent importance to producvity (Fig. 6). Furthermore, Fig. 9 (le) Tissue thickness (Porites) from high (upper) and low Chla regions7. (center) while large amplitude internal des are dominant features of Indonesian , Automated calcificaon rate and stress-band analysis of CT scan data generated from a coral core7. (right) White stress band (indicated by arrow) in a 2-D slice of a 3-D CT scan of a Porites core12. studies of these processes in the HSRA are lacking9. 3D High-resoluon mul-scale hydrodynamics-plankton model o 3D hydrography and circulaon – FVCOM13 o Coupled biogeochemical model with species model o Non-hydrostac version for internal waves o Provides mechanisc understanding of mulvariate coral environment over hours to decades, for comparison with observed coral growth paerns. Fig. 3 SeaWiFS chlorophyll a (μg/l), in HSRA during two monsoon seasons.6 Monsoon winds weakening? μZ Wind-stress data (SODA) indicates century-scale weakening of SE monsoon (Fig. 4) .

Fig. 6 (le) ITF and Pacific currents8,10. (right) Internal wave in Lombok Strait9

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