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Vestel Elektronik Consumer Durables Reinitiating Coverage

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Vestel Elektronik Consumer Durables Reinitiating Coverage GENEL-PUBLIC March 29, 2017 Equity Research Vestel Elektronik Consumer Durables Reinitiating coverage Good story but too crowded a trade The stock has had a good run on the back of better than HOLD expected December quarter financials and broker upgrades. Any further gains in share price would demand Share price: TL6.69 material improvement in margins and strong delivery by the management. We would wait for better entry points. Target price: TL6.81 We reinitiate with a Hold rating. Expected Events Strong top line but margin outlook is mixed. We expect Vestel to post double-digit sales growth both in 2017 and 2018 driven 31 March – 4Q GDP Results (+) largely by its exports business. The landmark brand licensing 4 April – Turkey March 2017 CPI (+) agreement with Toshiba should boost sales. As for margins, the 3rd week of April – White goods sector data (+) pressure fueled by raw material pricing and currency volatility is likely to continue in 2017. EBITDA margin is indeed set to fall 1.8ppt this year. The tax relief is currently helping the business but Key Data the cut in consumption tax will last only thru April. Margin and earnings outlook look considerably better in 2018, on our Ticker VESTL assumptions, as (1) the contribution of white goods to revenues grows as the new washer and dryer units become operational, (2) Share price (TL) 6.69 operating leverage starts working to Vestel’s favor offsetting some 52W high (TL) 7.96 of the pressure on margins. 52W low (TL) 5.45 Market Cap (TLm) 2,244 Valuation and recommendation. The shares are currently Market Cap (USDm) 613 trading at 24.7x and 12.7x on 2017 and 2018 earnings, respectively. At below 5x both in 2017E and 2018E, the multiples Free float (%) 22.46 are less demanding on EV/EBITDA. Our target price model values Consensus TP (TL) 7.59 the common equity at TL6.81 a share versus TL6.69, the current Consensus rating 75% B / 25% H / 0% S price. We reinitiate with a Hold rating. 3M ADV (USDm) 12.0 Upside/downside risks to our call. Resumption of SCT relief, a HY EPS (2017E) 0.27 larger contribution from Toshiba agreement, moderation in raw Consensus EPS (2017E) 0.77 material prices, and strong Euro are among the key upside risks to our call. The downside risk sources include stiff competition Share Performance vs. BIST100 globally coupled with rising raw material prices, and any unanticipated deterioration in consumer confidence either in 8.0 Turkey or Europe. 7.5 7.0 Per Share Data & Multiples 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017E 2018E 6.5 EPS (TL) -0.30 0.29 0.18 0.50 0.27 0.52 6.0 5.5 BVPS (TL) 4.01 4.09 4.69 5.48 5.78 6.22 5.0 DPS (TL) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.13 4.5 Price BIST 100 (Rebased) P/E (x) -22.3 22.8 37.2 13.2 24.7 12.7 4.0 05.16 01.16 02.16 03.16 04.16 06.16 07.16 08.16 09.16 10.16 11.16 12.16 01.17 01.17 03.17 EV/Sales (x) 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 EV/EBITDA (x) 10.3 5.6 4.6 4.6 5.0 4.1 Source: Halk Invest estimates Analyst: Mehtap İLBİ [email protected] Istanbul: +902123148730 1 GENEL-PUBLIC GENEL-PUBLIC Table of Contents Investment Case 3 Investment Positives Investment Negatives Why are we below the consensus? Valuation and Target Price Methodology 6 Company Overview 10 Sector Overview 11 Forecasts & Financials 14 Consensus EPS (TL) 0.85 2017 0.80 0.75 0.70 0.65 0.60 0.55 0.50 07.16 12.16 02.16 03.16 04.16 05.16 06.16 08.16 09.16 10.16 11.16 01.17 02.17 Source: Bloomberg 2 GENEL-PUBLIC GENEL-PUBLIC Investment Case Investment Positives Stability in operating margins can be achieved in the mid to long-term. Vestel Elektronik has been taking substantial initiatives in order to provide a profitable as well as sustainable growth since 2013. These initiatives include (1) improved product/price mix, (2) shift sales towards mid to high-end products, (3) upgrading stores, (4) expanding dealer network, (5) entering into new sales channels (mass merchandisers and technology retailers), (6) improving after-sales services, and (7) creating a renewed brand strategy for the domestic market. For the export markets, entering into the long-term brand licensing agreements with global brands (like Sharp and Toshiba) and applying cost reduction actions to improve its cost base are the main initiatives taking by the Company. Actually, we have seen positive results of this strategy for the last few years and if the Company continues to adhere to the strategy, operating margins can be stabilized at appropriate levels in the mid to long-term. The upward revision of our forecasts. We revised our forecasts for white goods sector’s domestic sales. We now expect the sector’s domestic sales (based on wholesale data) to increase by 4.2% y-o-y to 7.78 million units in 2017 compared to 5.4% y-y growth recorded in 2016 while we maintain our growth estimate of 6.7% for exports. Accordingly, we have revised our forecasts for Vestel Elektronik. We now expect the Company’s consolidated revenues to increase by 15% y-o-y to TL11bn in 2017, higher than our previous estimate of 10.6% growth and 7.4% EBITDA margin which is also higher than our previous forecast of 6.7%. Focus on mid to high-end products. The Company has increased its focus on mid to high-end products in line with its profitable and sustainable growth strategy and we have already seen the positive results of the strategy in its operational performance. The Company’s EBITDA increased by a CAGR of 31% between 2013-2016 while EBITDA margin reached to 9.2% in 2016 from 6.3% in 2013. New washing machine and dryer plant investment. The Company’s subsidiary ‘Vestel Beyaz Eşya’ has taken a decision to invest in a washing machine and dryer plant in Manisa Organized Industrial Zone. The facility will produce washing machines and dryers with a production capacity of 750k units/year for each and the investment is planned to be completed by June 2018. We believe the Company to achieve more stability in operating margins by increasing the weight of white goods sales in total revenues with the contribution of this investment. Brand licensing agreements with globally well-known trademarks. Vestel Elektronik has signed brand licensing agreements with globally well-known trademarks to enhance its competitive position in Europe. We expect the brand licensing agreements (with Sharp in white goods and with Toshiba in TVs) to contribute positively to Vestel Elektronik’s sales revenues. If the Company continues to add new brand licensing agreements, revenues can be further supported. Key upside risks to our forecasts; stabilizing TL against the U.S. dollar along with further appreciation in EUR/TL can reduce the pressure on operating margins which is mainly stemming from rising raw material prices. 3 GENEL-PUBLIC GENEL-PUBLIC Investment Case Investment Negatives Raw material prices are on an upward trend. Global commodity prices have been rising mainly on the back of Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, held on November 8, 2016. Trump’s promises, which had focused on infrastructure investments, were the main reason for this movement. In fact, Vestel Elektronik’s operating margins were not affected by rising raw material prices (steel & plastics in the white goods segment) thanks to favorable raw material hedges entered into in 1Q16. However, due to the absence of such favorable hedges in 2017, rising raw material prices will most likely put pressure on gross margin of the white goods segment particularly in the first half of 2017. Weaker demand for TVs. Not only domestically but also globally, TV demand is significantly sensitive to the international sporting activities (especially for football). In the absence of sporting activities this year, we expect TV demand to be weak, however, the demand is likely to strengthen both in Turkey and abroad next year, thanks to the FIFA World Cup which is going to be held in Russia between 14 June and 15 July 2018. Open cell prices also are rising. Open cell (panel) is the main input of TV production. Panel prices have been increasing since the late 3Q16 due to tight supply conditions (average price of a typical 40" LCD TV open cell has risen to $141 in February 2017 from $103 in August 2016). Furthermore, TL depreciation against the U.S. dollar has been putting pressure on production cost, as cell purchases are mostly made in dollars by the Company. This may continue to put pressure on gross margin of the consumer electronics segment unless the increase in costs is reflected in selling prices with the same degree in a weaker demand environment for TVs. TL depreciation against the U.S dollar creates risks on the bottom-line. The Company has a net short FX position of US$327mn as of the end-2016, which increased from US$23mn in the end-9M16, therefore USD/TL movements are highly important for the Company’s bottom-line. We think that the currency volatility will continue until the constitutional referendum will be held on April 16, 2017, and this will keep creating uncertainty on the Company’s bottom-line.
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