UK £2 Issue 243, Year 5 EU €2.50 February 9, 2020 www.thearabweekly.com The Arab Anniversary “Abu Dajaj” world and of Hariri’s bid for the coronavirus assassination White House

Pages 5-6, 20 Page 12 Page 18 Fight for Idlib exposes Turkish-Russian fault lines

Thomas Seibert strategically important M5 high- way under their control. Unlike previous interven- Istanbul tions by Ankara, Turkey’s latest move into Idlib is said to have resh fighting in Idlib prov- come as a surprise to the Kremlin. ince exposed deep fault Russia, the biggest military power lines in the Turkish-Russian in Syria and Assad’s main interna- F alliance in Syria, throwing tional backer, said Turkey’s incur- the future of the entente into ques- sion into Idlib had not been cleared tion. with Moscow. At least eight Turkish and 13 Syr- Orhan Gafarli, Russia analyst at ian servicemen died in an exchange the Ankara Policy Centre think- of fire between forces of the two tank, said the escalation in Idlib neighbours near the town of Saraqib would have a negative effect on in Idlib in the early hours of Febru- Turkish-Russian relations. “There ary 3. Turkey sent troops and hun- is a certain cooling of relations,” he dreds of military vehicles, including said by telephone. battle tanks, over the border into However, Gafarli said he did not Idlib the day before to protect 12 expect a rupture of the alliance. Turkish military posts and to con- Turkey and Russia have till now front the advancing Syrian Army. cooperated closely in Syria, fueling concerns in the West that Turkey Michael Tanchum is turning away from its tradition- al allies in Europe and the United States. Erdogan said he saw no reason to “trigger a serious confrontation “Idlib is where the rubber with Russia” given their “numer- meets the road.” ous strategic initiatives.” However, Gonul Tol, director of Speaking two days after the es- the Centre for Turkish Studies at calation, Turkish President Recep the Middle East Institute in Wash- Tayyip Erdogan said he was giving ington, said: “Ankara failed to see until the end of Febru- that what made Russia sympathet- ary to pull back from areas near ic to Turkish goals and incursions Turkish observation posts. in Syria was largely the presence Endgame. Syrian Army soldiers advance in Tall Touqan village, in Syria’s north-western Idlib However, Syrian President of US troops and that, once they province, near Aleppo. (AFP) Bashar Assad, who vowed to take leave, Russia would have little rea- control of Idlib, appeared to ig- son to tolerate Turkey’s actions.” lights conflicting interests in Syria, lution for the current confrontation ence in Ankara has waned with the nore Erdogan’s warning. His troops Even though there does not analysts said. in Idlib, with Russia acting as a go- ascendency of Russia’s role, to offer reached Saraqib and Ankara said seem to be a risk for now of Turkey “Idlib is where the rubber meets the between to organise a deal between unequivocal support to Ankara and to three of its 12 outposts — all in the and Russia totally parting ways or road,” Michael Tanchum, a senior fel- Ankara and Damascus. “But a bad try to drive a wedge between Turkey south-eastern part of the region — clashing in Syria, the situation in low at the Austrian Institute for Euro- scenario with new fighting is also pos- and Russia. were encircled by Syrian forces. Idlib is likely to constitute a grow- pean and Security Policy, a think-tank sible,” he said. The Syrian Observatory for Human ing challenge for the relationship in Vienna, wrote on Twitter. The fighting in Idlib offered a rare Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly Rights said Syrian troops brought between Ankara and Moscow as Gafarli said it might be possible for opportunity for Washington, Turkey’s correspondent. the complete Idlib section of the the fighting in the province high- Turkey, Russia and Assad to find a so- traditional main partner whose influ- P6,10,16 Tunisian diplomacy, politics face Mideast ripple effects

The Arab Weekly staff home office. consulting with the home office. States at the start of his administra- that he blamed Palestinian Presi- A Tunisian Foreign Ministry Sources in Tunis said the Tuni- tion.” dent for the spike statement said: “’s ambas- sian government was seemingly Baati, a career diplomat who had in anti-Israeli violence. “Calls for Tunis sador to the United Nations has worried about the possible effect served previously as Tunisian rep- days of rage in response and he said been dismissed for purely profes- on Tunisian-US relations from resentative at UN headquarters in that even before he saw the plan,” ssues related to Tunisia’s stance sional reasons concerning his weak Washington’s unhappiness about Geneva, left retirement last Sep- Kushner said. regarding the United States’ performance and lack of coordina- the country’s stance on the issue. tember and was appointed to the Middle East peace plan and tion with the ministry on important A source told Foreign Policy United Nations in New York ahead I normalisation with Israel have matters under discussion at the magazine: “Tunisia’s new president of Tunisia taking a year-long seat on Tunisian UN intruded into the country’s diplo- United Nations.” is looking to remove top officials the Security Council as of January. representative abruptly matic relations and domestic de- Official sources in Tunis accused from the previous government, Tunisian President recalled home, reportedly bate. Baati, who, since the beginning of including Baati, and a complaint strongly criticised Trump’s Middle over White House Moncef Baati, a veteran diplomat, the year, occupied a non-perma- delivered from the White East peace plan, calling it “the in- complaints about position was fired February 7 as Tunisia’s UN nent seat on the UN House sealed his justice of the century.” on US peace plan. ambassador over his handling of is- Security Council, f a t e .” The plan would grant Palestin- sues including a UN Security Coun- of going beyond The maga- ians limited statehood but also give Abbas, who is to address the cil draft resolution over the recent- instructions of zine stated Israel sovereignty over Jerusalem, United Nations on February 11, has ly released US peace plan. his government that the the West Bank, including the spoken with Saied and “thanked Diplomatic sources attributed in his position decision to Valley and allow annexation of set- him for Tunisian support,” said the Baati’s abrupt recall to complaints against US fire Baati tlement blocks in the Israeli-occu- Tunisian presidency. from the White House. President Don- followed pied Palestinian territories. Tunisia also found itself em- Media reports said a Tunisian- ald Trump’s “com- Tunisia needs US and Western broiled in controversy over the issue Indonesian draft resolution, dated Deal of the plaints support to shore up its economy of normalisation with Israel after February 4, stated it “strongly re- Century. from the and help it face security challenges Tunisian women tennis players’ de- grets” that the plan presented by the French TV United with a domestic jihadist problem cision to play an Israeli team in the United States and Israel “breaches channel France States” and and threats of militant infiltration Fed Cup tournament. The Tunisian international law and internation- 24 quoted Baati as was “viewed as from and . Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a ally endorsed terms of reference for denying the accusa- part of an effort Because of his sudden recall, statement accusing the players of the achievement of a just, compre- tion that he went to head off Baati missed a closed-door briefing violating “historic commitments hensive and lasting solution” to the beyond instruc- a major rift February 6 on the US peace plan at of Tunisia towards the Palestinian Israeli-Palestinian conflict. tions, saying he Security Council in relations the Security Council by Trump’s ad- cause.” It was not clear if the draft had was too profes- with the viser and son-in-law Jared Kushner. Saied has equated normalisation been cleared by Baati with the sional to neglect United Nations United Kushner said after the briefing with Israel with “high treason.” 2 February 9, 2020 Top news Iraqi anti-government ’s cabinet heads to controversial protests heat up in Najaf vote of confidence The Arab Weekly staff Samar Kadi security,” a security source told al- Joumhouria. Demonstrators have on several oc- London Beirut casions protested near parliament and prevented lawmakers from lashes between anti-govern- ebanese parliamentarians reaching the building. ment protesters and sup- are preparing a vote of confi- Backed by Hezbollah and its allies, porters of powerful Iraqi dence regarding Prime Minis- the Shia Amal Movement and the C cleric Muqtada al-Sadr re- L ter ’s Hezbollah- Christian Free Patriotic Movement sulted in the death of at least eight backed government amid extremely of President , which people in the southern shrine city tight security aimed at deterring an- hold a majority in parliament, the of Najaf. ti-government demonstrators who government is likely to win a vote of The fatalities were reported after pledged to escalate protests to dis- confidence. al-Sadr supporters raided a protest rupt the meeting. The main opposition parties — the camp February 5. Reports said the The parliament is to convene Feb- Future Movement of former Prime attackers threw petrol bombs at ruary 11-12 to review the new cabi- Minister Saad Hariri, the Progressive tents and fired on protesters. net’s policy statement and vote on Socialist Party of Druze leader Walid Al-Sadr’s supporters had been whether to accept the proposed gov- Jumblatt, the Christian Lebanese part of protests calling for an over- ernment. Forces party and the Phalange party haul of ’s political system before “This government does not rep- — were expected to vote against a al-Sadr reached an agreement with resent us so we are going to do eve- confidence measure. pro-Iran parties to back the candi- rything possible non-violently to Diab’s government faces the twin dacy of Prime Minister-designate deny parliament that represents the challenges of angry street protests Mohammed Allawi, who was tasked corrupt political class of Lebanon to and a collapsing economy, with Leb- with forming a new government recreate an administration that rep- anon burdened with a debt of nearly February 1. Point of no return. An anti-government protester stands near resents and protects their interests,” $90 billion, more than 150% of GDP. The protesters remain united in burning tyres during a demonstration against the newly appointed said activist Marc Daou. The government’s policy state- opposition to Allawi, who served as Prime Minister Mohammed Allawi in Najaf, February 5. (AP) “We will mobilise the people and ment was largely criticised for be- minister of communications in pre- block roads leading to the parlia- ing void of a clear or detailed plan to vious Iraqi governments. Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani criticised “Mohammed Allawi has had a ment building to abort the session.” deal with the crisis. Al-Sadr emerged as a new target security forces for failing to protect string of meetings with several Expressing apprehension at a pos- “The policy statement is mostly of the protesters’ ire following his protesters. dozen representatives of protesters sible crackdown, Daou said the gov- rhetorical and unlikely to win the backing of Allawi’s candidacy and “There is no justification for them from the eight provinces taking part ernment would be held responsible badly needed (financial) support of moves by his supporters to break up to stop fulfilling their duties in this in the uprising,” Hisham al-Hashe- for any violence. the international community,” said the Najaf protests. regard or for anyone to stop them mi, an Iraqi security expert who at- “Since this government does not political analyst Mounir Rabi’. from doing so,” Sistani said in a ser- tended the meetings, told Agence represent the majority of the Leba- “For instance, it offered no solu- mon read out by representatives. France-Presse. nese people who are protesting in tions for the ailing electricity sector The protesters remain “They must bear responsibility Hashemi said Allawi offered to re- the street, the only way for it to get but readopted an electricity plan united in opposition to for maintaining security and stabil- lease anyone detained for protest- a vote of confidence is through vio- approved (by the previous govern- Allawi, who served as ity, protecting peaceful protesters ing, compensate families of those lence and protection by the security ment) in 2019. That means deficit minister of communications and their gathering places, reveal- killed in protest-related violence and armed forces,” Daou added. and waste will continue and mis- in previous Iraqi ing the identities of aggressors and and work with the United King- The Higher Defence Council, trust by the international commu- governments. infiltrators and protecting the inter- dom to implement the protesters’ grouping leaders of security and nity will persist.” ests of citizens from the attacks of demands regarding anti-corruption military apparatuses, stated that “ef- “Moreover, the government will “I used to support the Sadrist saboteurs.” measures. forts will be coordinated between not be able to implement severe and movement but the minute he did Allawi also condemned the vio- Allawi reportedly offered to con- military and security agencies to painful economic measures that are this, I stopped. I’ve erased all my lence and called on the outgoing sult with the protesters over the pre-empt any acts of sabotage of the requested by the international com- Facebook posts that support him,” cabinet to protect protesters. formation of his cabinet, including parliament session.” munity because Hezbollah is against Najaf protester Abdul Zahra told “The painful events that are tak- granting protesters a say in up to Local newspaper al-Joumhouria imposing new taxes or revisiting Reuters. ing place now prompt me to ask the five ministerial nominations and quoted security officials as describ- salaries in the public sector,” he said. Following the violence February brothers in the current government directly appointing two activists as ing the planned measures as “similar The policy statement maintains 5, protesters in Najaf pledged to re- to carry out their duties and protect ministers. He has until March 2 to to ones taken in a state of emergen- the so-called army-people-resist- build their protest camp, which was the demonstrators until a govern- form a new government. c y.” ance equation. The phrasing confers a focal point in the protests. Rallies ment that meets all the aspirations Figures from security and medi- “The troops will carry out inten- legitimacy to Hezbollah as an armed took place across Iraq in support of of the Iraqi people… can be formed,” cal sources indicate that nearly 500 sive and strict measures around force and has sparked controversy in the Najaf protesters. Allawi posted on Twitter. people have been killed and 30,000 several areas mainly in downtown the past after being included in pre- “Whether ten or 100 die, I won’t Allawi has reportedly contacted wounded since the start of demon- Beirut (the parliament’s location), vious cabinet statements. abandon the cause,” protesters protesters’ representatives, seeking strations in October. The protests which will be more like a military chanted in Baghdad’s Tahrir Square. an end to the nation-wide demon- led to the resignation of Prime Min- operations zone. They will confront Samar Kadi is The Arab Weekly In his Friday sermon, Iraqi Grand strations. ister Adel Abdul-Mahdi. any riots, or any attempt to disturb Travel and Society section editor. US halts drone programme with Turkey over Syria incursion

Humeyra Pamuk gramme, which has been in place fences and broader splits over the and Phil Stewart since 2007, often zeroed in on war in Syria, despite what appears to mountainous territory in northern be a strong relationship between US Iraq near the Turkish border, anoth- President Donald Trump and Turk- Washington er official said. ish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. A Pentagon spokeswoman did “In recent years, Turkey has not he United States has halted not directly comment on any spe- been struggling to obtain the infor- a secretive military intel- cific programmes but noted that the mation it needs through drones it ligence cooperation pro- United States has designated the produces itself,” the Turkish official Fraying ties. A US MQ-1B Predator remotely piloted aircraft as it T gramme with Turkey that PKK a terrorist organisation since said. “However, as an ally, the steps flies during a training mission, in Nevada. (AFP) for years helped Ankara target Kurd- 1997. taken on this issue do not contribute istan Workers’ Party militants. “We have supported Turkey in to ties between the two countries.” largely Kurdish south-east. More in the 2000s. The US decision to suspend the [its] fight against the PKK in many Trump, long a sceptic of US mili- than 40,000 people have been killed Within a decade and a half, it de- programme was made in response ways for decades. As a matter of tary involvement in Syria, has been in the conflict. , as an ethnic veloped armed and unarmed drones to Turkey’s military incursion into policy, we do not provide details on blamed by Democrats and even group, make up about 20% of Tur- and was selling them to the Turk- Syria in October, US officials said, operational matters,” the spokes- some Republicans of abandoning key’s population. ish Army as well as to Ukraine and revealing the extent of the damage woman said, when asked about a US-backed Kurdish fighters to the Turkey’s military has often struck . As of July 2019, 86 Bayraktar to ties between the NATO allies from halt in assistance. Turkish onslaught and, in so doing, targets in Iraq’s Kurdish region near drones were in service with Turkey’s the incident. A Turkish official confirmed the unravelling US policy. the PKK’s stronghold in the Qandil security forces. Some of those were US officials, who requested ano- programme was stopped. The Turkish offensive took aim at Mountains and has also carried out regularly used during Ankara’s Syria nymity because of the sensitivity The halt to US assistance will test Kurdish People’s Protection Units cross-border operations into north- operations in 2016, in 2018 and again of the matter, said the United States Turkey’s military and intelligence (YPG) militia in Syria, which had ern Iraq targeting the militant group. last October. late last year stopped flying intel- capabilities at a time its forces are been the United States’ top ally in Since the inception of the secre- Arda Mevlutoglu, a Turkey-based ligence collection missions that tar- deployed on multiple fronts in the battle against the Islamic State tive US intelligence cooperation defence analyst, said the recent ad- geted the Kurdistan Workers’ Party northern Syria and as Ankara con- (ISIS). programme, Ankara has invested vance has equipped Ankara with (PKK), which both the United States siders deeper engagement in Libya. Turkey views the YPG as a terrorist hundreds of millions of dollars to greater flexibility and freedom in its and Turkey classify as terrorists. “This makes the anti-PKK cam- organisation, indistinguishable from advance its own defence capabili- operational capabilities. The US military carried out the paign more difficult and more costly the PKK but US policy has drawn a ties and reduced its dependence on “Turkey’s dependence on her al- missions using unarmed drone air- for Turkey,” said one of the four US bright line between the two groups, US and Israeli drones, which it had lies, mainly to the US, significantly craft, which one official said were officials, speaking on condition of helping Turkey fight the PKK even frequently used since the late 1990s. decreased, if not completely ended flown out of Turkey’s Incirlik Air- anonymity. as US military forces worked with Turkey’s privately owned Baykar in real-time high-quality intelli- base, where the US military has a It also adds to a laundry list of the YPG militia to combat ISIS. Defence, whose management in- gence gathering and surgical strike- significant presence. The base is a grievances between the United The PKK took up arms against the volves Selcuk Bayraktar, a son-in- type operations,” Mevlutoglu said. key hub for US spy agencies. States and Turkey, including An- Turkish state in 1984, waging an in- law of Erdogan, began working on The US drone flights in the pro- kara’s purchase of Russian air de- surgency for autonomy in Turkey’s developing Turkey’s first drone fleet (Reuters) February 9, 2020 3 Top news

UAE commits to wider support to Nearly 550 killed in after visit by Ould Ghazouani Iraq protest

Lamine Ghanmi share the same positions and views regarding all Arab, regional and in- violence ternational issues.” Tunis Mauritanian media compared the Agence France-Presse UAE allocation to assistance the he Mauritanian government country received from the United established a high com- Arab Emirates 50 years ago when Baghdad mittee, to be led by Prime its first president, Mokhtar Ould T Minister Ismail Ould Bedde Daddah, was seeking to build the early 550 people have been Ould Cheikh Sidiya, to oversee in- country’s economy after independ- killed in protest-related vestment projects and ties with the ence. violence since unprec- . UAE founding father Sheikh N edented anti-government The Emirates extended $2 billion Zayed bin Sultan al-Nahyan granted demonstrations erupted in Baghdad to finance development in the West 40 million dirhams ($10.9 billion at and southern Iraqi cities in October, African country after Mauritanian the current rate) to Mauritania to the Iraqi Human Rights Commission President Mohamed Ould Ghazoua- help finance its first road stretching said. ni’s visit to Abu Dhabi earlier this more than 1,200km. Sheikh Zayed The Iraqi Health Ministry con- month. It was his first trip abroad visited Mauritania in 1970 to show firmed the first protester was killed since his election in June. support for economic and social de- on October 1 but has not issued ad- Ould Ghazouani met with Abu velopments in the country. ditional reports on fatalities. The Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mo- “The visit by Sheikh Zayed bin commission, which is government- hammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan and Sultan al-Nahyan to Mauritania funded but operates independently, others while in the Arab Gulf coun- in the 1970s remains present in became the only source for death try. the memory of the Mauritanians tolls until it faced pressure last year The Mauritanian cabinet issued present at this time and even in Edging closer. Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed to stop reporting. It resumed its a statement February 6 saying the the memory of young people as al-Nahyan (R) and Mauritanian President Mohamed Ould Ghazouani public reporting and published its development committee had been their mothers and fathers told during an official reception at Qasr Al Watan, February 2. latest statistics on February 7, show- formed to “supervise the rapid and them about it. That visit played (UAE Ministry of Presidential Affairs) ing that 543 people, including 276 in well-controlled implementation of an important role in strengthen- Baghdad, had been killed in protests the partnership and joint projects ing bilateral ties,” Ould Ghazoua- Emirates cooperate on farming, en- erty and expanding economic and since October. with the United Arab Emirates.” ni said. ergy, security, culture and transport social development while affirming Seventeen security forces mem- Supporters said Ould Ghazouani issues. the pillars of state of law and insti- bers were among the dead, the list aims to make “a new start” in ex- “We are determined to deepen tutions,” Ould Ghazouani said. stated. The remaining were protest- $2 billion in Emirati panding the economic and social this cooperation, God willing, as Mauritania was the only country ers or activists, including 22 who support has been development with a strategy differ- will be made clear during the work in the Maghreb to join the United were assassinated. allocated to finance ent from his predecessor, Moham- of the joint cooperation committee Arab Emirates, , Bah- Up to 30,000 people have been development projects ed Ould Abdel Aziz. meeting in our country March 11- rain and in severing ties with wounded during the rallies, medical in Mauritania. Ould Ghazouani is also oversee- 12,” said Ould Ghazouani. Qatar in 2017 over Doha’s suspected sources said. ing a shift in Mauritania’s diplo- Mauritania shares with United support for Islamic extremists and Iraq’s security forces have used The Mauritanian government ex- macy from “good neighbourhood Arab Emirates a sober view about close ties with Iran. live ammunition, tear gas, smoke pressed “the full gratitude on behalf to brotherly complementarity” to the “Arab spring” that caused con- Mauritania’s ties with Tehran bombs and machine-gun fire to dis- of the Mauritanian people to the further the country’s economic and flicts and instability in some Arab were strained after Iran’s ambas- perse rallies. United Arab Emirates for the gen- strategic interests. countries and opened the way for sador was summoned by the Mau- The commission did not lay erous support it had extended to “The details of the huge welcome foreign intervention in the region. ritanian foreign minister to explain blame on any particular side but our country during the president’s to the president during his visit to “The ‘Arab spring’ does not match increased Shia proselytising activ- protesters singled out pro-Iran visit and the value and importance the United Arab Emirates and the the name. Some forces attempted ity at al-Mujina Mosque in Nouak- armed factions and the military of the investments that will expand demonstrations of joy and greet- and are attempting to fan conflicts chott. wings of political parties, alongside the economic development of our ings to him suggested that the re- and divisions in the Arab region,” Since the visit of Ould Abdel Aziz the security forces. country.” lations between the two states en- said Ould Ghazouani. “The spring is in 2010 to Iran, some 50,000 Mauri- The United Nations accused un- Ould Ghazouani said: “The al- tered a new stage that can only be a good season but if it were spring tanians have converted from Sunni named “militias” for a campaign location of $2 billion by the United compared to the atmosphere of the we will not be in the situation we Islam to the Shia sect mainly as the of assassinations, kidnappings and Arab Emirates to fund investment incipient relations built by the late are in as .” result of charity and social assis- threats. in Mauritania proves that the rela- founders Sheikh Zayed and Ould “Mauritania faced the storm of tance work, local media said. The commission documented tions between the two countries Daddah,” said Mauritanian political the ‘Arab spring’ by working to more than 2,700 arrests, with 328 reached their highest level. writer Cheikh bin Salek. strengthen our national unity, rein- Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly people still detained. Another 72 Ira- “The leaders of both countries Mauritania and the United Arab force our social fabric, fighting pov- correspondent in Tunis. qis are categorised as disappeared. Turkey deploys extremists to Libya, local militias say

Sam Magdy jockeying to control Libya’s re- However, in a televised inter- fighters among the approximately August. At first, he said they were sources. view last month, Turkish Presi- 4,700 Turkey-backed Syrian mer- facilitating the work of Turkish Libyan militia leaders in Tripoli dent Recep Tayyip Erdogan said: cenaries sent to fight for Sarraj. military experts but, as the fight- Cairo said Turkey had sent more than “As a combat force, we will have a He said ISIS militants joined ing escalated in mid-December, 4,000 foreign fighters into Trip- different team there. They won’t the Syrian National Army (SNA), the number of Syrian fighters ar- yrian militants affiliated oli and that “dozens” of them are be from within our soldiers. Those a patchwork alliance formed by riving in Libya increased. Those with militant groups such extremist-affiliated. The two com- different teams and the combat Turkey from various factions that fighters immediately deployed to as al-Qaeda and the Islamic manders spoke on condition of forces will work together but our battled the government of Syrian the front lines, said the official, S State are being sent by Tur- anonymity because they were not high-ranking soldiers will coordi- President Bashar Assad. Most of speaking on condition of anonym- key to fight on behalf of the UN- authorised to discuss the matter nate.” the groups are loyal to Turkey and ity because he was not authorised supported government in Libya, with the media. Rumours of Turkey-backed Syr- the SNA was used as shock troops to talk to the media on the subject. two Libyan militia leaders and a The commanders highlighted ian fighters in Libya have swirled last year in Turkey’s offensive Tripoli authorities and US offi- Syrian war monitor said. differing opinions within Libyan for weeks. Foreign leaders point- against US-allied Kurdish forces in cials have accused Haftar of rely- Both sides in Libya’s civil war militias about accepting Syrian ex- ed to videos online that appear northern Syria. ing on hundreds of Russian con- receive equipment and backing tremists into their ranks. One said to show Syrians in Tripoli. In one In theory, a ceasefire brokered tractors. Sudanese armed groups from foreign countries but Turkey, the fighters’ backgrounds aren’t video, a man with a Syrian accent by Russia and Turkey remains in from the Darfur region recently which has long trained and funded important, as long as they are there films dormitories where he and place around Tripoli but Libya’s joined the fighting on both sides, opposition fighters in Syria and re- to defend the capital. The other other fighters are living, saying: warring sides have traded accusa- UN experts said. laxed its borders so foreign fighters said some commanders fear the “Thank God, we arrived safely in tions of violations and the shaky The influx of Syrian, Russian and could join the Islamic State (ISIS), fighters will “tarnish” the image of Libya.” Another clip shows a plane truce is threatened by clashes. Sudanese mercenaries threatened has been airlifting hundreds of the Tripoli-based government. full of fighters, some wearing fa- Representatives from Sarraj and to prolong the war and cripple in- them to a new theatre of war in Turkey-backed militias in north- tigues and speaking with Syrian Haftar began meetings February 4 ternational efforts to establish a Libya. ern Syria have been known to accents. in Geneva to work towards a per- long-term ceasefire. Last month, The UN-supported Libyan gov- include fighters that previously manent ceasefire. a conference in Berlin brought ernment controls a shrinking area fought with al-Qaeda, ISIS and Libyan militia leaders in The Observatory quoted a Syr- together the major international other militant groups and have ian fighter from Idlib province who in western Libya, including Tripoli. Tripoli said Turkey had sent stakeholders in Libya but with few It is facing a months-long offensive been accused of atrocities commit- applied to go to Libya as saying concrete results. by forces loyal to Field-Marshal ted against Syrian Kurdish groups more than 4,000 foreign he was motivated by the financial Nicholas Heras, a Syria expert at Khalifa Haftar, commander of the and civilians. fighters into Tripoli. benefits offered by Turkey. the Institute for the Study of War in Libyan National Army. The United The United Nations repeatedly Elizabeth Tsurkov, a fellow at Washington, said Turkey is focus- Nations recognises the Govern- condemned the flow of weapons Turkey’s Libyan allies and Syr- the US-based Foreign Policy Re- ing on Libya to establish a sphere ment of National Accord in Tripoli, and foreign fighters into Libya but ian opposition leaders denied or- search Institute who closely fol- of influence in the Mediterranean. led by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sar- has not directly responded to re- ganised efforts to send combatants lows Syria’s armed groups, said the “However, the Turks do not raj, because it was born out of UN- ports and accusations by Haftar’s to Libya but, in January, Sarraj promise of payment, Turkish citi- want to risk significant casualties mediated talks in 2015. side that Sarraj’s government and told the BBC that his government zenship or the prospect of fleeing to their own forces when the Turk- Sarraj is backed by Turkey and, Turkey are apparently using ISIS- “would not hesitate to cooperate to Europe were main motives of ish military has built a proxy force to a lesser degree, Qatar and Italy. and al-Qaeda-linked extremists as with any party to defeat this ag- Syrian fighters sent to Libya. of Syrian fighters that can reinforce Haftar receives backing from the mercenaries. gression” by Haftar’s forces. “None of them are committed to the Libyan fighters,” he said. United Arab Emirates and Egypt, Turkey has not confirmed or Rami Abdurrahman, the director the fight in Libya due to personal as well as France and Russia. Libya denied reports of Syrian fighters of the Syrian Observatory for Hu- conviction or ideology,” she said. (The Associated Press. AP writers has the ninth-largest known oil being sent to Libya to support Sar- man Rights, said his war-monitor- A Libyan official at the prime Sarah El Deeb in Beirut and reserves in the world and many raj. The Turkish military did not ing network determined there are minister’s office said Syrian fight- Suzan Fraser in Ankara, Turkey, of these countries are apparently respond to requests for comment. at least 130 former ISIS or al-Qaeda ers have been in Libya since early contributed to this report.) 4 February 9, 2020 Top news Burhan’s surprise normalisation move with Israel sparks controversy in

Samir Wahbi was on a “personal initiative” by Burhan who “did not give any commitment and did not talk of Paris normalising relations.” He said the transitional government headed surprise move by Suda- by Prime Minister Abdalla Ham- nese Sovereign Council dok rejected any responsibility on Chairman Abdel Fattah normalisation. “The issue of rela- A al-Burhan to meet with tions with Israel is beyond its man- Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin date,” he said. Netanyahu signalling the start of Burhan later clarified his posi- normalisation between Israel and tion after brieffing the Sovereignty Sudan was quickly mired in con- Council and key cabinet members. troversy and in confusion over “I took this step from the stand- constitutional prerogatives in point of my responsibility… to Khartoum. protect the national security of After a meeting in Entebbe Feb- Sudan,” he said. “I stress that ex- ruary 3 between Burhan and Net- amining and developing relations anyahu, the office of Israeli prime between Sudan and Israel is the minister pointed out that Israeli responsibility of the concerned and Sudanese officials “agreed to institutions, as according to (Su- start cooperation leading to nor- dan’s) consitutional declaration. malisation of the relationship be- His statement did not diminish tween the two countries.” the effect created by the move. “This is unprecedented in the sense the head of a freshly minted A military spokesman and transitional body would ven- confirmed February 5 ture so quickly into the limelight that Khartoum has with this,” said a former Arab dip- agreed to allow Israeli lomat whose country conducted flights to cross its normalisation talks with Israel in airspace. the 1990s. Normalisation has many upsides “Burhan is eager to help his for Israel. It allows Netanyahu A definitive shift? Sudanese Sovereign Council Chairman Abdel Fattah al-Burhan (R) greets military country modernise by taking it out to add another feather to his cap officers in Khartoum, last October. (AFP) of isolation and putting it on the before the March 2 elections and world’s map,” the statement said. enables him to show off influence The Israeli government her- over the US administration with spokesman confirmed that Khar- tivities, including Osama bin Lad- with fuel subsidies, which take alded the move as a breakthrough countries of the region that seek to toum had agreed to allow Israeli en’s al-Qaeda and Iran’s Islamic up 36% of the nation’s budget, by following Netanyahu’s visit that improve ties with Washington. flights to cross its airspace. Revolutionary Guard Corps. Under March. builds on his trip to in 2018 Netanyahu’s office said that “the Beyond its geopolitical impli- deposed autocratic leader Omar This could be highly destabilis- and to other African countries prime minister expressed his posi- cations, the move seemed like a al-Bashir, the government’s Mus- ing in a country where two-thirds since 2016. Israel has established tive views about changes in Sudan desperate attempt by Sudanese lim Brotherhood affiliation had of the more than 40 million popu- or resumed diplomatic ties with 39 to the US Secretary of State (Mike leaders to overcome a desperate kept it on a collision course with lation live in poverty. Sudan’s gov- of 47 sub-Saharan African states. Pompeo),” who invited Burhan to economic situation. the West. ernment has inherited debt of $60 The normalisation move caught visit the United States “soon” dur- A Sudanese official said Burhan The United States in December billion and needs foreign loans many, including Sudanese govern- ing a phone call February 2. thought meeting with Netanyahu lifted Sudan from a blacklist for and credit from international fi- ment officials, by surprise. Suda- Quoting Israeli officials, US news would “accelerate” the process of religious freedoms violations but nancial institutions, which are in- nese government spokesman Fais- website Axios said: “In talks lead- being removed from the US terror the country is still stigmatised accessible while the country is on al Mohamed Salih said the cabinet ing up to the meeting, Sudan asked list. The objective is to allow sudan as a result of its terror listing. Su- the US terror list. had only learnt of the meeting at Israel to help open doors in Wash- to break out of its decades-old iso- dan was recently excluded from The normalisation move could Entebbe through the media. It was ington and encourage the Trump lation and start receiving support eligibility for US “diversity visas,” be a case of a controversial diplo- only after his return from Entebbe administration to change Sudan’s in order to rebuild its economy. which grant green cards to about matic initiative intersecting with that Burhan briefed the Sudanese designation as a state sponsor of The listing of Sudan as a state 50,000 foreign nationals a year. dire socio-economics. ruling body. terror.” sponsor of terrorism dates to the For Sudan, removal of the ter- The spokesman said February 5 Just two days after the Enteb- 1990s when Khartoum hosted ror listing is economically vital. Its Samir Wahbi is an Arab writer that the meeting with Netanyahu be meeting, a Sudanese military groups suspected of terrorist ac- government would like to do away based in Paris. Pushed into a corner, Tunisia’s prime minister-designate drifts away from ‘revolutionary’ politics, faces deadline

Lamine Ghanmi ing the Islamist movement, to gain the image of Fakhfakh from the acceptance for the cabinet. head of the “president’s govern- Having received virtually no ment” into a “hostage of Ghan- unisian Prime Minister- votes in the legislative election, nouchi and Ennahda,” analysts designate Fakhfakh linked his legitimacy to said. was pushed by Islamists that of Saied, who was voted into It was unclear whether Fakhfakh T into a dilemma: Either re- office with more than 70% of the would be assured of a parliamen- verse his “revolutionary” course to ballots. tary majority for his government win parliamentary confirmation or Fakhfakh’s push to form a cabi- by the deadline of February 21. suffer a fiasco that would test the net without Qalb Tounes and the Failure to do so could signal snap strategy of President Kais Saied Free Destourian Party was based elections that could produce a and risk snap elections. on the assessment that the parties more conflicted parliament amid Fakhfakh’s selection by Saied toeing “the path of the revolution” unprecedented economic and so- put him at loggerheads with parlia- could together provide the support cial crises. ment Speaker Rached Ghannouchi, of at least 140 MPs, 31 votes more Analysts faulted Fakhfakh for who, as president of the Islamist than a parliamentary majority. locking himself in a narrow “path Ennahda Movement, is intent on Ennahda was counted among of the revolution” by excluding po- thwarting Saied’s declared aim to those parties because it had voted litical groups, which made it possi- play a greater political role that for Saied and its leaders had previ- ble for Ghannouchi to be seen as a could overshadow Ghannouchi. ously ruled out any alliance with conciliator. Qalb Tounes but Ghannouchi and “Ennahda launched a ruthless Changing course. Tunisian Prime Minister-designate Elyes Fakhfakh met with Qalb Ennahda, citing “national inter- offensive with attacks targeting Fakhfakh speaks during a news conference. (AFP) est” and “political inclusiveness,” both the prime minister-designate Tounes leader Nabil Karoui suddenly changed course. They and the president who designated on February 6 and included attacked Fakhfakh’s approach and him with the final knock-out blow Free Destourian Party was in the Analysts warned that the con- him in the consultations called for the inclusion of Qalb from Ghannouchi pushing Fakh- lead in a potential election with sensus advocated by Ghannouchi about the government Tounes in the government. fakh to revise fundamentally his 16.6% support, ahead of Ennahda could pose more risks than possi- formation the next day. Ghannouchi warned Fakhfakh approach but the blow has also (15.9%) and Qalb Tounes (15.6%). ble elections. that if “he continues in the path of cast doubt about the ability of In a presidential contest, Saied “For many foreign observers, a Fakhfakh had excluded Qalb exclusion of Qalb Tounes or anoth- Kais Saied to make good politi- would come first with 63.9% sup- repeat of the shallow consensus in Tounes, the second-largest party er party, we will not lend him our cal choices,” said political writer port and Karoui second with 11.1%. the 2020-24 period bears the risk of in the 217-member parliament af- confidence in the parliament.” Ikhlass Latif. Politicians involved in talks dealing the last blow to the econo- ter Ennahda, and the Free Destou- Fakhfakh met with Qalb Tounes Experts warned against fresh about a future government said my and to a faltering institutional rian Party, led by anti-Islamist law- leader Nabil Karoui on February 6 elections, citing the low economic consultations with Qalb Tounes transition,” said Tunisian econo- yer Abir Moussi, from his planned and included him in the consulta- growth, high inflation, mass un- did not mean it would be part of mist Moktar Lamari. government. He banked on sup- tions about the government forma- employment and widening deficits the cabinet but figures close to the port from “pro-revolutionary” for- tion the next day. and burdening debts. party could be ministers to placate Lamine Ghanmi is an Arab Weekly mations in the parliament, includ- The manoeuvres transformed A new poll indicated that the Ennahda and Qalb Tounes. correspondent in Tunis. February 9, 2020 5 Top news Effects of new deadly Dubai airport remains world’s No. 1 for virus reverberating international travel across MENA region The Arab Weekly staff passing through Dubai International Airport dipped in 2019 for the first time in 20 years, authorities said. Dubai Traffic at the airport was down 3.1% to 86.4 million passengers from 89.2 ubai International Airport million passengers in 2018, Dubai said it maintained its rank- Airports said. ing as the world’s busiest It is the first fall in the number of D airport for international passengers at Dubai International travel, despite closing one runway since at least 2000, stated figures for repairs last year and the ground- from Dubai Statistics Centre, a gov- ing of the Boeing 737 Max. ernment agency. The airport, home to long-haul “While customer numbers in 2019 carrier Emirates, saw 86.4 million were lower than the preceding year, passengers in 2019, 6 million more the effect of the 45-day closure of than second-place Heathrow Air- the runway, the bankruptcy of Jet port in London. That’s down 3% Airways, as well as the grounding of from 2018, which saw 89.1 million the Boeing’s 737 MAX accounted for passengers at Dubai International an estimated 3.2 million passengers Airport. over the course of the year,” Dubai Airport officials said the numbers Airports CEO Paul Griffiths said. were weaker in part because of a 45- Flydubai has been one of the big- day closure of the airport’s southern gest customers of the Boeing 737 runway, the bankruptcy of India’s MAX, which has been grounded Jet Airways and the grounding of since March following two crashes the Boeing 737 Max. Government- that killed 346 people and opened owned Emirates’ low-cost sister the doors to intense scrutiny of the carrier, FlyDubai, had been flying a US manufacturer’s safety practices. number of the Maxs in its fleet. India accounted for the largest It’s the sixth year Dubai Inter- number of passengers using Dubai national Airport has been listed as airport, with 11.9 million. Saudi Watchful. Passengers coming from China are checked by Saudi Health Ministry staff upon their the world’s busiest for international Arabia provided the second largest, arrival at King Khalid International Airport, in Riyadh, January 29. (Reuters) travel. The world’s busiest airport with 6.3 million, narrowly ahead of overall is Hartsfield–Jackson Atlanta Britain’s 6.2 million. International Airport. Alessandro Arduino visitors from China, both Chinese important, cannot implement the However, the number of travellers (With agencies) citizens and those from other coun- Chinese central government’s top- tries arriving from China. down approach, based on a techno- Shanghai In contrast, the United Arab Emir- logically driven social control sys- ates is keeping its highly trafficked tem that constantly monitors and he effects of a new strain of airport hub in Dubai open, relying evaluates the population’s daily Algeria names new the deadly coronavirus that on rigorous high-tech automated activities. originated in Wuhan, Chi- screening for all passengers. In ad- In this respect, Gulf countries T na, are reverberating well dition, the United Arab Emirates is are better positioned to implement chief for state energy beyond China’s borders. The Mid- monitoring all students returning top-down policies as well as count dle East and North Africa are brac- from China, subjecting them to a on a strong financial foundation to ing for impact. mandatory 2-week quarantine. sustain them. A first case in the Middle East, In North Africa, safety proce- The negative effects of the epi- firm Sonatrach reported in Dubai, recalls previous dures are focusing on temperature demic in the Middle East, which are widespread epidemics. screenings at ports of entry. far-reaching, are not exclusively re- During 2012, the Middle East lated to the coronavirus crisis. The Reuters output reduced export volumes. increasing efforts to isolate China Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus repatriated at Algeria responded by trying to (MERS) claimed 858 victims out are generating negative ripple ef- boost production capacity and is of 2,494 patients. MERS carried a least 167 nationals from fects in stocks markets as well as in Algiers seeking investment from interna- higher fatality rate of 34% com- Wuhan and placed them global logistics chains. tional oil companies to help it to do pared to the 15% of Severe Acute under medically The first shockwave is going to lgerian President Abdel- so. In December, it enacted a law Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in supervised quarantine. hit the economy with long-stand- madjid Tebboune ap- to encourage such investments but 2002. ing and difficult-to-predict conse- pointed Toufik Hakkar as still bars foreign companies from The current coronavirus infec- The virus has not made landfall quences. A the head of state energy owning a majority share in Algerian tion has presented a casualty rate on the continent but East African Not only are thousands of Chi- firm Sonatrach, state television re- energy projects. of around 2%. However, the differ- countries such as Ethiopia are un- nese workers located in the MENA ported. Falling energy revenues are hit- ence lies in the fact that the new vi- der the spotlight for allowing large region along with the Belt and Road Hakkar, a senior Sonatrach ex- ting the state budget, for which a rus’s dissemination rate is far faster numbers of incoming Chinese trav- Initiative infrastructure projects ecutive, replaced Kamel Eddine 9% cut in public spending was ap- than the two previous epidemics. ellers. It does not come as a surprise and the oil fields but Chinese tour- Chikhi, who was named head of proved for this year, while leaving Coronavirus infected more than because Addis Ababa Bole Interna- ists are a key pillar of several coun- the company in November, the lat- politically sensitive subsidies un- 24,500 people in two months. To tional Airport is a preferred logistics tries’ hospitality sector. est in a rapid carousel of changes at changed. limit the outbreak, China is enforc- hub linking Chinese businessmen In the energy sector, OPEC mem- the top in recent years. Any major cuts in government ing an unprecedented lockdown by and tourists with the continent, fol- bers are considering reducing oil Algeria, a major gas supplier programmes would be particularly reducing the mobility of more than lowed by Cairo and Nairobi. output because of decreasing de- to Europe, relies on hydrocarbon difficult given the major political 35 million people, mainly in the Each country is facing several mand for oil from China. sales for 60% of its budget revenue crisis that has rocked Algeria for provinces of Hubei and Zhejiang. difficulties with efforts to repatri- In other industrial sectors, such but they have slumped since the the past year, with a mass protest The Wuhan municipal govern- ate its nationals from Wuhan and as construction, the effect of the oil price fell in 2014, leading to a movement that helped oust the ment’s crisis management proce- Hubei province, which are at the virus is going to show significant ef- big decline in foreign currency re- veteran president in April. dures during the virus’s early stages epicentre of the outbreak. fects after a few months due to sec- serves. Tebboune was elected in Decem- of diffusion, however, are question- Morocco repatriated at least 167 tor seasonality. For example, fol- Figures indicate oil and gas earn- ber in a vote that the protesters able and questioned. nationals from Wuhan and placed lowing the Chinese New Year, the ings reached $30.3 billion in the rejected, saying no election was Beijing showcased what it learnt them under medically supervised steel market is usually expected to first 11 months of 2019, a 15% fall legitimate while the ruling elite during the SARS epidemic when quarantine. Iraq and Turkey have slow down because most construc- from the same period a year ear- remained in place. He appointed a the government made a disastrous repatriated dozens of nationals. tion projects in China were halted lier as domestic demand and lower new government in January. attempt to contain the information Not only in North Africa but while waiting for the return of mi- and not the virus. This time, Beijing across the continent the repatria- grant workers. implemented transparent com- tion effort is even more complex This year, long-distance bus ser- munication with the international because of the presence of several vices and public transportation community while taking stern ac- thousand African students in af- that have been suspended in many tions to stop the spread. fected areas in China. Chinese cities are not expected to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s Xi stated that China has the confi- resume soon. comment about the severity of the dence and capability to win the bat- Behavioural economists demon- virus was an uncommon deviation tle on the prevention and control of strated beyond a reasonable doubt from the standard state propagan- the pneumonia epidemic caused by that irrational “herd cognitive er- da mantra that is “everything is un- coronavirus. China has channelled rors” can lead to wrong decisions. der control.” an impressive amount of financial The effect of diffused fear will At the same time, each country and technical resources to contain put pressure not only on the medi- in the Middle East and North Afri- the virus and to sustain the fall of cal structures but also on the mar- ca is supposed to have established local stock exchanges. kets. In the age of pervasive social standard operating procedures for During the first trading day after media, containing the spread of early detection, contact tracing, the Lunar New Year festivities, the panic and unconfirmed news is an containment and public communi- Shanghai Stock Exchange index lost indispensable component of the cation. The reality differs. 8%. The People’s Bank of China in- fight against the virus. Oman and Saudi Arabia were the jected $173 billion to slow the fall first countries in the Middle East and avoid a domino effect. Alessandro Arduino is the to suspend flights to China, fol- Many Arab and African countries author of “China’s Private Army. lowed shortly by Qatar and Iraq cannot count on an equal amount Protecting the New Silk Road,” New trajectory. The logo of Sonatrach seen at the company’s announced a travel ban on foreign of financial resources and, most Palgrave-Macmillan, 2018. headquarters in Algiers. (Reuters) 6 February 9, 2020 Opinion

Editorial Erdogan and his mercenaries

urkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s militarised foreign policy is vexing many across the Middle East, the Mediterranean and beyond. He has taken his country on a warpath in Syria with the Turkish TArmy’s incursion in the country increasingly shifting into a showdown against Syrian forces and their Russian allies. His bellicose policies in the Eastern Mediterranean have alienated not just Cyprus, Greece and France but the rest of the European Union. “Against a regime that no longer sees any limits to its action, there needs to be a moment when it is told to stop,” said Marc Pierini, a foreign policy expert who served as the Euro- pean Union’s ambassador to Turkey. Alluding to French President Emmanuel Macron’s opposition to Erdogan’s policies in the Mediterranean and Libya, Pierini said: “Politi- cally, it is easy to do and this is what is being done in Paris. On the ground, it is infinitely more complicated but Ankara only understands the language of force.” In Libya, the language of military force used by Turkey has translated into the dispatching of mercenaries from Syria. “Turkey, which has long trained and funded opposition fighters in Syria and relaxed its borders so foreign fighters © Yaser Ahmed for The Arab Weekly joined [the Islamic State], has in recent months been airlifting hundreds of them over to a new theatre of war in Libya,” the Associated Press (AP) reported. The Palestinian issue is no longer Syrian militants affiliated with groups such as al-Qaeda and the Islamic State are being sent by Turkey to fight on behalf of the UN-supported ‘the leading cause’ in the Arab world government in Libya, said two Libyan militia leaders and a Syrian war monitor. Even Libyan militia leaders affiliated with the Islamist-backed Fayez al-Sarraj government in Mohamed Kawas Tripoli are speaking up. Two of their command- ers told the AP that Turkey had sent more than Israel is a basic interface through which Washington’s strategic 4,000 foreign fighters to Tripoli and that position on this or that country is decided. “dozens” of them are “extremist-affiliated.” The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights determined that Erdogan has sent no fewer than think we can all agree that Sovereignty Council Abdel other region of the world. 4,700 Syrian mercenaries to fight for Sarraj and the Palestinian issue is no Fattah al-Burhan met with However, the Sudanese that among them there are at least 130 former longer “the leading cause Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin development, which came Islamic State or al-Qaeda fighters. in the Arab world.” There is Netanyahu and immediately shortly after the announcement The dangerous mix of mercenaries and jihadists is triggering serious concerns in Libya a history to that. fears of normalisation of of the Trump peace plan in the — even in Sarraj’s camp. Wariness is also The “Palestinian cause” relations between the two Middle East, appears to confirm legitimately expressed by Libya’s neighbours Iused to be promoted as carrying countries surfaced, reawakening that it is still a mistake to believe and by Europeans across the sea. the Arab version of the winds of the region to a reality that, that the Palestinian cause is Nicholas Heras, a Syria expert at the Institute the leftist revolution sweeping frankly, it seemed more willing no longer central to the Arab for the Study of War think-tank, said Ankara is the world after World War II but, than before to accept its fatality masses. using Libya to exert influence in the Mediterra- after the fall of the Berlin Wall rather than resist it. If this issue has lost its nean. “However, the Turks do not want to risk and with the rise of competing Israel has become a part intimidating glow in the significant casualties to their own forces when humanitarian tragedies in of this region; its existence is collective consciousness of the Turkish military has built a proxy force of Syrian fighters that can reinforce the Libyan Bosnia and Herzegovina recognised; its officials are being the Arabs, then why all of this fighters,” he said. and, more recently, in Syria, received here and there and its embarrassment and confusion By his recourse to mercenaries, Erdogan may Iraq, and Libya, the mouthpieces have been hosted when meeting with an Israeli be sparing the lives of Turkish soldiers but he is Palestinian cause took a second on our satellite channels. official and why do Arab officials putting peace and security in the Mediterranean seat. Times have changed but the still stutter to justify hosting in serious jeopardy. There was certainly a change decades following the Camp Israeli delegations? in positions with respect to the David Accords with Egypt If the cause has truly become “centrality of the cause” in the and Wadi Araba Treaty with unimportant and marginal in the Coronavirus Arab agenda, a change that was Jordan could not produce Arab world, then what justifies reflected in developments such true normalisation among the these ferocious cyberattacks by in MENA as the Camp David, Wadi Araba signatory countries. the social media armies against and Oslo agreements. Visits to Israel, as a country Palestine and the Palestinians ith more than 700 dead and The truth is that the issue of peace and not war, by and everything related to their more than 34,000 confirmed of Palestine has become in the Jordanians and Egyptians (and cause? cases, it is only normal that the Arab consciousness a mere other Arab citizens) were so What the Arabs need to do coronavirus is on everybody’s memory that should be kept badly received by the public is to get over and get out of the mind, including populations of alive, a far cry from the notion opinion in their countries that it stage of using the Palestinian the Middle East and North of having it at the core of each was clear that normalisation was cause as their trade stock and WAfrica. Arab’s individual duty that was still impossible even after such a move towards solving it for good The oil market is likely to be directly affected. long time. With China being the second largest oil con- spread by the Ba’athist and by making it an Arab cause again, sumer in the world, oil prices have dropped Nasserist literature and others Still, the appearance of not a Palestinian one. since the outbreak and oil producers have by the pretentious left. the “new Sudan” in the Not all Arab countries need contemplated production cuts. BP’s chief The Palestinian cause was normalisation arena is neither to normalise relations with financial officer said the coronavirus outbreak instrumentalised in one way or a precedent nor a rare incident. Israel as much as Israel needs could reduce oil consumption by 300,000- the other. Some regimes showed Former Qatari Prime Minister to normalise with the Arabs 500,000 barrels per day (bpd), about 0.5% of a great deal of enthusiasm but Hamad bin Jassim declared a and, if normalisation has global demand. they were, in fact, using it to few years ago that Qatar’s open become a fate imposed by the Other estimates are higher. S&P Global Platts Analytics said the epidemic could cut oil terrorise their own people by relationship with Israel was, and balance of power, then the Arab demand at least 900,000 bpd in February and classifying them as either true still is, the only way to woo the countries should not give it 650,000 bpd in March. If air travel is further patriots aligned with their United States. for free and should impose, by affected by the cancellation of flights, demand president and regime or traitors So, we should not feign reason, on the world and even could fall 2.6 million bpd. to the “cause” and by extension surprise then about the reality on the Palestinians themselves Many airlines, such as Saudi Airlines, enemies of the glorious national of having Sudan removed a “just solution” after which Egyptair and Air Maroc, suspended flights to regime. from terrorism blacklists, normalisation may be committed and from China. Others, including Emirates and Air Algerie, chose not to or to do so selectively. With the outbreak of the 2011 a sinful legacy of Omar al- without fear or embarrassment. Nationals are being repatriated. uprisings of the “Arab spring,” Bashir’s “revolutionary” What Trump’s deal did was For many MENA countries, the Chinese the Palestinian cause had regime, requires having a good give Iran and Turkey licences to tourism market, which has a lot of potential, is almost no place in the recurrent relationship with Israel? seize the “primary cause of the being deeply disrupted. The H1N1 influenza protests in the Arab countries This is the norm in the United Arab world.” Ankara and Tehran outbreak in 2009 and the 2003 SARS outbreak in turmoil. It is even doubtful States, especially during the have become the prime reference cost the global tourism industry, respectively, if the cause has a place in the era of Donald Trump and his and the last word in defining the $55 billion and $50 billion. son-in-law Jared Kushner. Israel Reactions in the Arab world have shown huge ongoing protests in the West path to Palestine among the Arab room for better coordinated logistics (in matters Bank and Gaza Strip. Rather, is a basic interface through public opinion. of repatriation of nationals, for instance) and an the screams and orations heard which Washington’s strategic These two self-centred uneven level of preparedness in preventing and there flow more in the direction position on this or that country powers rejected the deal but dealing with cases of infection. of the narrow interests of the is decided. This is not new if they will not hesitate to push Accurate and efficient public communication various factions and take their we believe bin Jassim’s fatwa it if it becomes in the interest will be needed to dispel erroneous notions source from Iranian or Turkish in Doha but this time it has of the Turkish sultan and the about the outbreak and limit its damage. World positions. become less stigmatising and Iranian supreme leader to do so Travel & Tourism Council President and CEO Gloria Guevara said: “Containing the spread of A recent development in the more acceptable in a region tomorrow. unnecessary panic is as important as stopping region rekindled a collective exhausted from all the political the virus itself.” interest in the endless saga. and security hurricanes that Mohamad Kawas is a Lebanese The Chairman of Sudan’s blew across it and across every writer. February 9, 2020 7 Opinion Iraq’s pie in the sky Ibrahim Zobeidi Published by Al Arab Publishing House Unfortunately for Allawi, the protesters, like other Iraqis, are very unlikely to fall for his rosy dreams and generosity. Publisher and Group Executive Editor hoever heard al-Amiri, Qais Khazali, al-Sadr, in Baghdad, by force of arms ruption agree to early elections Haitham El-Zobaidi, PhD the pledges their relatives and their cohorts and batons and just plain rude under real and serious inter- made by would be brought to fair and hooliganism, to have an idea national supervision. It would Editor-in-Chief Muqtada al- independent justice, because, about the monstrosity of the be foolish to expect the United Sadr’s in-law from now on, the law is going to fraud. Al-Sadr further conspired Nations and neutral countries to Oussama Romdhani and Iraqi reign supreme above all Iraqis. with his “evil sisters,” the other send a million observers to Iraq, WPrime Minister-designate Mo- Unfortunately for Allawi, the rude pro-Iranian militias, to at- one for each polling station, and Managing Editor hammed Allawi may have been protesters, like other Iraqis, are tack demonstrators in the other even more childish to expect transported into fantasy land. very unlikely to fall for his rosy provinces. those observers to resist the Iman Zayat Imagine that, once Allawi dreams and generosity. For argument’s sake, let’s say armed militias and prevent them Deputy Managing Editor takes office, all Iraqis are going Of course, it is our ardent de- that Allawi is sincere and de- from snatching the ballot boxes to wake up the next morning to sire that Allawi would turn out termined to fulfil his promises, and stuffing them with what and Online Editor find that Iraq had been trans- to be a true patriot, free of all especially regarding bringing they want. Mamoon Alabbasi formed into another Germany or evil and man enough to be inde- those criminals who shed the In fact, the outcome of such Switzerland: no more bombs, no pendent and stand his ground, blood of protesters to justice. elections would be a repeat of more sectarianism or quotas, no so that he would go down in Suppose he orders serious and 2005, 2010, 2014 and 2018 elec- Senior Editor more corruption, shady deals or history as a rare Iraqi hero and fair investigations right after tions and the next parliament John Hendel commissions. the unique and beloved leader taking office and that he finds would also belong to Amiri, al- Ah, let the good times roll. All of the Iraqi people but let’s not out that the killers and kidnap- Sadr, Maliki, Masoud Barzani’s Iraqi citizens will be swimming get carried away. pers were militiamen from the party, Jalal Talabani’s party, Chief Copy Editor in freedom, dignity and equity; Besides making the big Badr Organisation or Hezbollah Osama al-Nujaifi, Iyad Allawi Richard Pretorius no more favouritism in work mistake of accepting Allawi’s or Asaib or al-Sadr followers. Do and Mohammed al-Halbousi. opportunities and before the fraudulent nomination as Iraqi you think he would be able to The more things change, the Copy Editors law; no discriminating between prime minister, the man has bring them to justice? more they remain the same, as Stephen Quillen a member of a ruling Islamic made a bigger and most danger- The guy dared to promise the saying goes. Kyle Arensdorf party or militia and any ordinary ous mistake of taking the Iraqi the Iraqis to hold the bosses of The bottom line is that no real citizen who is not a member of a people for fools. His speech was corruption accountable for their and serious change will occur in party or a militia. a plain fantasy. deeds. Suppose he finds that the Iranian-American Iraq, ever. As Gulf Section Editor There will be rejoicing in the Suppose he is given the biggest and most dangerous of long as weapons are not in the Mohammed Alkhereiji families of the martyrs of the benefit of the doubt and ac- these corrupt people are Maliki, hands of the state and as long as October revolution and the cept that he was sincere in his Amiri, Khazali, al-Sadr or their the state remains in the hands Society and Travel latter would be honoured and intention to implement all these senior associates. Do you think of the militia leaders and the Sections Editor their families compensated for promises, which, by the way, are he would be able to order their militias are in the hands of the Samar Kadi their loss. The wounded would above his means and the means arrest and expect to be obeyed? “mujahid” Esmail Qaani, Qas- be treated and taken care of; of those who appointed him. In What a sham! sem Soleimani’s successor, only Senior Correspondents the kidnapped and the arrested that case, the guy can only be Allawi promised the protest- Hitler, Mussolini, Saddam Hus- would magically reappear and either a deranged daydreaming ers they would have a new sein or Tarzan would be able to Lamine Ghanmi (Tunis) their full rights restored; the schizophrenic or a dangerous elections law, as they wished. disarm the killers, the swindlers Thomas Seibert (Istanbul) displaced and the refugees in- fraudster who is deliberately Assuming he can do that and and the agents of the occupier. side and outside the homeland deceiving the angry citizens. assuming that he can order new As to the poor soul and obedi- Regular Columnists would return to their homes In both cases, he is rejected in elections, can he guarantee that ent slave Mohammed Allawi, Rashmee Roshan Lall safe and sound and would be advance and his candidacy will the elections would produce he could never be a Hitler, Claude Salhani compensated for their losses not come to pass safely. the real, fair and serious change Mussolini, Saddam or Tarzan. and suffering; the jails would Suffice it to know that al-Sadr, that is expected and that could Hence, our story has a beginning Yavuz Baydar be emptied of their occupants, whose brother happens to be return the demonstrators to but no end. some of whom were being held married to Allawi’s daughter, their homes, satisfied and safe, Correspondents prisoner for years without trial; ordered his thugs to impose Al- not fearing kidnapping, arrest or Ibrahim Zobeidi is an Iraqi corruption would magically dis- lawi’s nomination on the masses assassination? writer and US publisher Saad Guerraoui (Casablanca) appear and Nuri al-Maliki, Hadi of protesters at Tahrir Square Let’s say the sources of cor- of The Arab Weekly. Dunia El-Zobaidi (London) Roua Khlifi (Tunis)

Incarcerating jihadists ‘forever’ could Chief Designer Marwen el-Hmedi

run into logistical quicksand Designers Rashmee Roshan Lall Ibrahim Ben Bechir Hanen Jebali It’s a conundrum. There may not be a single solution to the threat of terrorists re-offending. Contact editor at: ritain has declared person committing or preparing every week. In November, three solution proposed by American a war on terrorists. an act of terrorism” and seven months before Amman’s knife social scientists some years ago: [email protected] It is only margin- counts of “dissemination of ter- attack, 28-year-old Usman Let criminals get to middle age ally better than US rorist material.” He was released Khan, also a terrorist convict before release. Research indi- President George from prison just days before the on early release from prison, cates that most criminals, even W. Bush’s “war on knife attack. stabbed two people to death in violent ones, eventually grow Bterror.” Unlike the United States, Amman was released at the London. out of breaking the law. Al Arab Publishing House which has fought since 9/11 halfway point of his sentence On the face of it, the British The American studies covered Quadrant Building against an abstract noun, Britain under rules introduced in 1991 government seems to have ar- non-ideological crimes such as 177-179 Hammersmith Road will wage war against a common by Britain’s Conservative gov- rived at the right answer to the vandalism, homicide, rape, for- London W6 8BS noun. ernment and simplified by the deep and troubling problem of gery, fraud, assault and car-theft After a February 2 knife attack Labour government’s Criminal preventing convicted terrorists rather than jihadist terrorism on a south London street by Justice Act 2003. No one, least from causing further grievous but lead researcher, Carnegie Sudesh Amman, a man with a of all his jailers, could have societal harm — lock them up Mellon Professor Alfred Blum- Tel: (+44) 20 7602 3999 previous conviction for terrorist predicted Amman’s orgy of vio- for as long as possible. However, stein, insists: “Lots of people, Fax: (+44) 20 7602 8778 offences, the British govern- lence after his release. Amman this strategy quickly runs into as they age, they are no longer ment plans to extend the time had not shown himself to be logistical quicksand. a risk. We are keeping people that jihadists spend in jail. violent enough to be locked up It is unlikely that prisons in in prison who are physically Michael Gove, a senior cabi- for the rest of his life. As terror- England and Wales will ever unable to represent a threat to US Publisher: net minister, has suggested that ist offences go, he was convicted have room to house every ter- anybody.” the new, tougher sentencing for relatively innocuous crimes. rorist convict until they die. This is disputable for terrorist The Arab Weekly USA LLC. regime for terrorists should, “if Even so, it’s not hard to Except for a limited number of offenders who may not age out [email protected] understand the reason for the dangerous individuals, most necessary,” cover indefinite de- of ideological convictions. [email protected] tention. “We need to be able to British government’s newly convicts will have to be released One way to deal with the is- prove that people are no longer declared hard line on convicted eventually. As Nazir Afzal, a sue is “jihadist jails,” a concept Tel: 248-679-6624 a danger to the public,” he said. terrorists. British Prime Minister former chief prosecutor, put it: described by former prison gov- So, whole-of-life incarcera- Boris Johnson is under pressure “Longer prison sentences will ernor Ian Acheson. He suggested tion then? How else to ensure a to reassure a jittery public even keep us safe for a little longer establishing high-security convicted terrorist is “no longer as the British media keep up a but the likelihood is that, when centres that house hardliners a danger to the public?” At what barrage of reporting on “danger- they come out, they will be as separately from other, less seri- point would it be reasonably ous jihadis on our streets.” radical as they were when they ous offenders. However, “jihad- safe to assume a 20-year-old Of the approximately 220 went in, as extreme as they were ist jails,” too, might not have Subscription & Advertising: like Amman no longer posed a terrorist offenders in British and they will still want to do prevented attacks by released [email protected] threat? prisons as of September 30, what they were planning to do prisoners such as Amman and Tel : (+44) 020 3667 7249 Amman, who was killed by four are due for early release those months or years before.” Khan. police within minutes of going in March, the Henry Jackson Furthermore, the longer in- It’s a conundrum. There may on the rampage with a stolen Society think-tank said. carceration for terrorist convicts not be a single solution to the Mohamed Al Mufti contemplated by the Johnson knife, was not considered a Johnson’s government is threat of terrorists re-offending. Marketing & Advertising clearly concerned about the government would not have serious offender when he was Manager convicted in December 2018. risks posed by prisoners serving applied to Amman because he Rashmee Roshan Lall is a He was sentenced to three years sentences for terrorism who wasn’t considered a violent columnist for The Arab Weekly. Direct: (+44) 20 8742 9262 and four months in prison for are eligible for early release. offender. Her blog can be found at www.alarab.co.uk six counts of collecting informa- By some estimates, there is The British government ap- www.rashmee.com and she is tion “likely to be useful to a about one release, on average, pears to be veering towards a on Twitter: @rashmeerl. 8 February 9, 2020 News & Analysis Libya Salame talks of ‘progress’ in Libya but few share his confidence in negotiations

Michel Cousins ging,” he admitted, because the HoR was having “some difficul- ty” selecting its representatives. Tunis Nonetheless, he said confidently, the three tracks were “sort of in ac- ince the Berlin Conference tion.” on Libya, which was attend- It is almost impossible to find ed by several world leaders, any Libyan or independent ob- S efforts to resolve the Libya server who shares this confidence crisis shifted from the internation- because the 5+5 discussions were al scene to the inter-Libyan level. not about agreeing a ceasefire but Libyan military commanders about how and who would moni- met during the first week of Febru- tor a ceasefire, what happens to the ary in Geneva under the auspices heavy weaponry and the armed of the United Nations to turn the groups and how can the displaced shaky truce in Tripoli into a perma- return home. nent ceasefire. Although both sides agreed on Five participants were appointed the need to convert the truce into by Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj, a permanent ceasefire and that a head of the besieged internation- joint military commission would ally recognised Government of Na- be needed to monitor a ceasefire tional Accord (GNA), and five were under the auspices of UN peace- named by his rival, Field-Marshal keepers, neither signed up to a Khalifa Haftar. ceasefire. Because, as Salame ad- There was also a financial track, mitted, whatever might be agreed with Libyan economic officials and by the commanders from both business leaders looking at a radi- sides must be signed off by their cal reform of the economy. leaders — Haftar and Sarraj. In Sar- A political track is supposed to raj’s case that also means the mili- happen February 26, again in Ge- tias and other fighters on whom he neva, which is to involve some 40 depends. Libyan figures, including 13 mem- Neither the GNA nor LNA leader- bers of the House of Representa- ship is willing to agree to a cease- tives (HoR) and 13 from the High fire except on its own terms. The Council of State. GNA insists that the LNA withdraw In his report to the UN Security to the positions it held prior to its Council January 30, UN Special Tripoli offensive started on April 4. Envoy Ghassan Salame said he Haftar insists the militias holding Persisting woes. UN Envoy for Libya Ghassan Salame at a news briefing after a meeting of the 5+5 was angered and frustrated at the sway in Tripoli be disbanded and Libyan Joint Military Commission in Geneva, Switzerland, February 6. (Reuters) refusal of some countries to keep the militants there be removed. promises made at the Berlin con- The international community ference to abide by Libya arms wants the militias disbanded and embargo. A week later, he sounded force to be solely in the hands of security consultants, the Jones ence of LNA forces. This raised the edly, is that none of them must remarkably optimistic. the military and the police. Group, signed a contract in Oc- question of whether outside forces have any connection with Qatar or There appears to be an unbridge- tober for disarmament, demobi- — either African or European — Turkey), there is little prospect of it able chasm between the two sides. lisation and reintegration (DDR) needed to be brought in to help happening by February 26. Neither the GNA nor the For the LNA, the GNA’s withdrawal services. There had been talks re- monitor a ceasefire. But would Without a ceasefire and politi- LNA leadership in Libya is demand is unacceptable. For the cently in Tripoli with the Ameri- they be acceptable to ordinary cal consensus on the way forward, willing to agree a ceasefire GNA, the LNA’s demand is equally cans on DDR. Libyans? there is no chance of economic except on its own terms. impossible to fulfil, even though Even if the militias agreed to Observers said there is no chance reform being implemented. Mean- Sarraj is known to want to replace disarm and disband, which is far of a ceasefire. The consensus is while, the oil blockade, carried out In his assessment February 6, the militias with regular army and from assured, it would not hap- that, although the fragile truce in by eastern tribes, continues. Lib- he said progress had been made in police. He and Libyan Interior Min- pen overnight. In the meantime, Tripoli has continued — despite ya’s oil exports — its financial life- the ceasefire discussions. Because ister Fathi Bashagha had hoped, there is the question of who would regular breaches — fighting will blood — have dwindled to a little of “a clear national spirit inspiring but failed, to curb the power of the be responsible for security in and eventually break out again. more than 5% of what they were at both delegations” there were only militias in September 2018 and are around Tripoli. With the HoR refusing to name the end of 2019. “a few points of divergence” that trying again to move in that direc- Despite the 5+5 suggestion of representatives for the political needed to be bridged,” he said. tion. a Joint Military Commission, the track and setting conditions for Michel Cousins is a contributor to The political track was “a bit lag- The GNA and US military and GNA is unlikely to accept the pres- participating (one of them, report- The Arab Weekly on Libyan issues.

Viewpoint Turkey’s Syrian fighters in Libya: more mercenary than jihadist

divisions have confirmed their Syrian rebels have taken Institute. Islamist militias. It is partially presence in Libya. In videos re- several casualties in the month- Turkey has other inducements on this account that so many leased online, they discuss their long campaign they have waged. for its willing agents. European and Middle Eastern James Snell accommodation and conditions. Many of those died within days One is the prospect of leaving countries are meddling in Libya. Although Libya’s civil conflict is of their arrival. The first con- a rebel-held Syria, which is be- At a conference last month far from their war, many seem firmed casualty was Ahmad al- sieged and where a final offen- in Berlin, outside powers — but ibya’s civil war is pleased at the chance to fight Malla from Zamalka, in eastern sive appears always at hand. no Libyans — discussed how defined by foreign Haftar. Ghouta, a district first besieged Those who fight with Turkey to resurrect a political process intervention. The “We’re not mercenaries,” a and then captured after chemi- in Libya are promised they will to end Libya’s fighting. French Libyan National fighter called Ahmed told the cal weapon attacks by the regime be offered Turkish citizen- President Emmanuel Macron Army, commanded by New York Review of Books. “We of Syrian President Bashar As- ship after a tour of duty of six described Turkey’s interven- Khalifa Haftar, repre- were invited by the Libyan Army sad. months. Many Syrian rebels tion as “an explicit and serious Lsenting the Tobruk-based House and Libyan people and we op- Escaping the war at home is lived in southern Turkey for infringement of what was agreed of Representatives, is supported pose dictatorship.” one reason some have gone to years, though Turkey is trying in Berlin. It’s a broken promise.” by Russian and Sudanese merce- “We don’t want Libya to be fight abroad. So, too, is the suf- to deport many of the Syrian This is the strange irony of the naries, French weapons and the destroyed like Syria,” he said, fering of fighting in the deprived refugees (or “guests,” as Turkey Libyan war. With outside powers goodwill of Egypt and the United and spoke of the opportunity and besieged northern areas calls them) from the country, the lining up to support either Haftar Arab Emirates. his presence in Libya afforded as the Syrian war approaches a burden being politically unpopu- or the Government of National Its backers believe Haftar to fight the Russians supporting decade in length. lar. Accord, Turkey’s intervention is will defeat Islamist forces and Haftar. In these conditions, other Turkish citizenship would not the most flagrant or de- pacify Libya by overthrowing the Other fighters, in online vid- incentives begin to feature. provide a way to leave Syria and structive, though it is likely the Tripoli government, the UN-rec- eos, chant that they are fighting While pay for fighters in Turk- remove the threat of deporta- strangest. ognised Government of National Iran by their presence in Libya — ish-aligned units in northern tion. Some Syrian rebel com- As the fighters and civilians of Accord in 2015. something that is not borne out Syria is close to $50 per month, manders appear to have chosen Idlib and Aleppo province face Into this situation, Turkey has by fact. those who travel to Libya to fight this option. another Assad regime advance interjected — and it has done so are paid substantially better. It Other countries denounced and contend with yet more with surprising force — Syrian was rumoured that their remu- Turkish meddling in Libya and determined attack, the routes rebels, in the form of detach- With outside powers neration would total $1,500 per called its Syrian fighters merce- Syrians take out of their own ments of the Syrian National month. Research by Syria Direct naries and jihadists. country — in this case, to Turkey Army (SNA). lining up to support suggested it could be as much as Of the two, the Syrians in via Libya — can seem strange. Despite denials from Turkey, either Haftar or the $2,000 per month. Libya are more mercenaries than However, many of these contor- the Syrians were sent to Libya in GNA, Turkey’s “Turkey is carrying out a jihadists. They are in Libya at tions are more a product of the January to defend Tripoli against policy of starving the dog to the behest and with the support depredations of Syria’s war than an advance by Haftar’s forces, intervention is not the make him follow you,” a fighter of a state that is not theirs, paid the willingness of rebel Syrians which looked likely to capture most flagrant or in the Samarkand brigade told for their presence and promised to fight elsewhere. the capital. Elizabeth Tsurkov, a researcher other rewards. Syrians fighting with the destructive, though it with the Middle East Programme One of Haftar’s most useful James Snell is a British Sultan Murad and Mutasim is likely the strangest. at the Foreign Policy Research contentions is his opposition to journalist. February 9, 2020 9 News & Analysis Egypt Egypt treading cautiously in run-up to dam deal

Amr Emam been trying to reach a deal on the dam for more than five years. An inability to reach consensus led Cairo Egypt to invoke an article in a declaration of principles, signed here is concern in Cairo by the three countries in 2015, al- about negotiations be- lowing international mediators. tween Egypt, Sudan and Egypt asked the United States T Ethiopia over the latter’s and the World Bank to step in and Nile dam after the three coun- their mediation apparently paid tries were unable to reach a final off, even as Cairo is treading very agreement on the project. cautiously. The foreign and water minis- Egypt’s caution stems from ters of the three countries, meet- tough times its delegation ex- ing in Washington to discuss the perienced during talks in Wash- Grand Ethiopian Renaissance ington. At the end of the latest Dam, agreed on a schedule for a round of meetings, the countries’ stage-based filling plan of it and delegations were to have signed a mitigation mechanism for its a document containing all the filling during droughts and dry points they agreed on during the years. talks but the Ethiopian delega- However, those were no more tion refused to sign. than preliminary understand- Egyptian Foreign Minister ings. Sameh Shoukry said Egypt’s Technical and legal teams from agreement to the same issues en- the three countries are to meet tailed many concessions. to resolve particulars of the is- Hopes and concerns. Inmates seen inside their cell at Burj al-Arab prison near the Egyptian city of sues agreed to in Washington and Alexandria, last November. (AFP) prepare a detailed document be- Egypt’s caution stems fore foreign and water ministers from tough times its return to the United States for delegation talks to meet an end-of-February experienced during Egypt’s release of Islamist deadline for a final agreement. talks in Washington. “These debates will be far from easy, especially in the presence He said that reaching an agree- of some sticky issues,” said wa- ment with Ethiopia on filling the ter expert Nour Abdel Monem. dam, the rules of filling and facil- detainees raises fears “Agreement on these issues is ity operation would be of utmost important if Egypt will preserve importance for Egypt. its water rights.” The delegations of the three The dam is central to Ethiopia’s countries are to return to Wash- of security blowback development and Addis Ababa ington February 12 to discuss stretched its financial resources the issues, including a mecha- to the utmost for finalising it. The nism for the annual and long- Amr Emam ists away and threatened economic other chance,” the prisoner said. $4 billion hydroelectric structure term operation of the dam in activities, costing Egypt dearly in The fear is, however, that this is designed for a capacity to gen- normal hydrological conditions, terms of revenue. will be a second chance for involve- erate 6,000 megawatts of elec- a coordination mechanism and Cairo Sisi put thousands of Islamists ment in violent activity. Security tricity when fully operational. It provisions for the resolution of in jail. The arrests included non- specialists called on the authorities is to begin operations by the end disputes and the sharing of infor- ights advocates in Egypt violent activists, said to have been to keep watching these Islamists af- of this year. mation. welcomed the release of imprisoned because they objected ter their release. Shoukry said the dispute-reso- hundreds of prisoners, in- to Sisi’s rule. Local and internation- “There are real risks in the re- Technical and legal lution mechanism was important cluding political activists, al rights groups criticised those ar- lease of these people, including for preventing any waste of time, R teams from the three saying the move is a positive step rests. In its World Report 2019, Hu- their possible merger into terrorist especially should Egypt run that portends greater freedoms. man Rights Watch lashed out at the organisations,” Mazloum said. countries are to meet into a disagreement with Ethio- “This is a good political gesture,” arrest of political opponents and The Muslim Brotherhood is tech- to resolve particulars pia over the dam when it starts said human rights lawyer Negad el- civil society activists by Egyptian nically non-operative, except for its of the issues agreed to operating. Borai. “I hope the authorities will authorities. media machine, which contains TV in Washington. On February 2, Ethiopian Prime compound it with the release of all However, the release of the pris- channels broadcast from Turkey. Minister Abiy Ahmed said he ex- political activists in the prisons.” oners, especially Islamists, caused Egyptian police have eradicated Ethiopia said the project is nec- pected negotiations between his The release of the prisoners came concern. most of the Muslim Brotherhood’s essary for its economic and so- country, Sudan and Egypt to end February 1 on orders from Egyptian “I was shocked when I heard the militias. cial development and for the life in a way that serves the interests President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, who news about the release of these Is- However, ISIS is still alive even as of millions of Ethiopians prone of the three states. Nonetheless, pardoned them as part of Police lamists,” said security expert Gamal operations by the Egyptian Army to droughts and famine but the the record of dam negotiations Day celebrations. Eddine Mazloum. “Security agen- have weakened it. dam is an existential challenge over the past five years adds to However, the move caused alarm cies have to be on full alert.” for Egypt, densely populated and the Egyptian fear before the end- among security specialists. Egypt suffered after releasing Is- mainly desert. of-February deadline. The released prisoners included lamists from jails in the past. Some One of the released Egypt depends on the Nile for Ethiopia, Egyptian observers hundreds who had been members formed terrorist cells or joined mili- Islamists said 97% of its water needs. With an- said, has been buying time to of Islamist movements, including tant groups. representatives of state nual amounts from the Nile of complete the project and turn it the Muslim Brotherhood, the larg- Most extremists campaigning institutions visited the 55 billion cubic metres of water, into an unalterable fact. est Islamist movement in Egypt against Sisi’s government and call- prisoners in their cells Egypt is water poor already. “Egypt should work hard to and a bitter enemy of Sisi’s regime. ing for killing army troops and po- and lectured them. Egypt’s annual freshwater per secure an agreement,” said Diya Most of prisoners had been found licemen were in prison before the capita has gone down to 560 cu- al-Qousy, a former adviser to the guilty of attacking state institutions 2011 uprising against long-time Islamists released from the pris- bic metres and was predicted to Egyptian minister of irrigation. or police following the ouster of Is- President Hosni Mubarak. Thou- ons in the past faced stricter ideo- drop to 500 cubic metres this “So far, Ethiopia has been very lamist President Muhammad Morsi sands of Islamists were set free af- logical revisions that included year. keen on talking but not signing in mid-2013. ter the uprising. lectures by moderate religious Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan have anything.” One of the perpetrators of the De- scholars and political experts who Egypt suffered after cember 2016 bombing of a chapel worked to correct misconceptions near Saint Mark’s Coptic Orthodox the Islamists held about Islam and releasing Islamists Church, the seat of the Coptic Or- authorities. from jails in the past. thodox pope near downtown Cairo, Some of those undergoing revi- Some formed terrorist had been released from jail a short sions renounced violence and abid- cells or joined militant time before the attack that left 29 ed by the peaceful line they vowed groups. people dead. ISIS claimed respon- to adopt. However, others quickly sibility for the attack and vowed to returned to violent actions. Egypt went through its bloodiest target Egypt’s Christian minority. Following the latest release of Is- phase in years that followed Morsi’s Those released from the prisons lamist prisoners, many cast doubt ouster in an army-backed popular recently underwent revisions. One on the viability of the revisions and uprising. Muslim Brotherhood mi- of the released Islamists said repre- the pledges they made before their litias, members and sympathisers sentatives of state institutions vis- release. attacked police stations, torched ited the prisoners in their cells and “People do not usually change dozens of churches and killed tens lectured them. their ideas or beliefs easily,” said Is- of policemen. “They showed us what is right lamism expert Sameh Eid. “Most of Brotherhood members travelled and what is wrong,” a local newspa- those making the revisions pledge to Sinai and joined a branch of the per quoted the unnamed ex-prison- to follow a non-violent course be- Islamic State (ISIS). Some crossed er as saying. cause they only want to get out of into Egypt’s western neighbour Another prisoner said he was the prisons.” Libya to fight for Islamist militias. grateful to state authorities for Slow process. Egyptian Water Resources Minister Mohamed Abdel Many Egyptian cities were caught reaching out to him and to other Amr Emam is an Arab Weekly Aati (2nd R) participates with a delegation in the Renaissance Dam in the violence, which scared tour- prisoners. “They are giving us an- contributor in Cairo. trilateral negotiations in Khartoum, last October. (AFP) 10 February 9, 2020 Viewpoint Syria Fall of Maaret al-Numan: The final nail in Turkey’s Syria adventure

East. Occupying a neighbouring as much as, perhaps more than, country’s territory at such a com- any other country, giving refuge bustible time in the Middle East to millions of Syrians over the Stephen Starr was viewed as a show of enor- course of the conflict. Ankara mous strength, confidence and has also been stung by Moscow’s ambition but bore little risk. recent hypocrisy — telling Tur- he Syrian Army’s Ankara established 11 official key’s leaders it remains com- taking of Maaret (and several unofficial) military mitted to protecting civilians in al-Numan, along observation posts around Idlib Idlib while simultaneously using with other advances that house small contingents of its warplanes to drop bombs on towards the Turkish Turkish soldiers. Its goal was to them. The agreement reached in border, has writ large protect Syrian civilians who had 2018 was to create and maintain Ta simple truth many observers fled the regime in other parts of a de-escalation zone along the have known for months: the the country while herding the borders of Idlib; Moscow, for all Turkish government’s disastrous disparate military opposition fac- intents and purposes, has ripped Syria adventure is soon to come tions under its command. that up. to an end. Recent weeks have seen “There have been agreements At the onset of the Syrian con- Turkey’s Syria adventure fall made with Russia… right now, flict in 2011, Turkey’s stance was apart. Since December, three unfortunately, Russia is not of major import. When Ankara observation posts have fallen to honouring these agreements,” publicly sided with the anti- Syrian troops or been evacuated. Erdogan was quoted as telling government protesters by calling Turkish troops find themselves a Turkish newspaper. “We have for Syrian President Bashar As- surrounded by pro-Assad forces, waited until now but, from this sad’s ouster in November 2011, it unable to hold back their on- point, we are going to take our caused ripples across the region. slaught. Seven Turkish soldiers own actions. This is not a threat From 2012-14, Turkey was the and a civilian were killed in but our expectation is that Russia most important foreign actor in shelling by Syrian government will give the (Syrian) regime the the Syrian conflict, actively aid- forces recently. All the while, the necessary warning… Russia tells ing or ignoring opposition forces Justice and Development Party us they fight against terrorism. running weapons from its terri- government in Ankara remains Who are terrorists? The people tory into northern Syria. stubbornly unwilling to admit fighting to defend their own Turning tide. A Syrian Army soldier in Maaret al-Numan, Syria, Its invasion of Idlib prov- defeat and remove its troops. lands?” January 30. (Reuters) ince in October 2017 essentially As such, with Assad’s forces All of which makes Turkey’s turned the province into a de and proxies on the march this recent strategic and military Saraqib, 28km north of Maaret when the latter deployed tanks facto independent region under month, the fall of Idlib province steps across the board even more al-Numan. Damascus responded and helicopter gunships to kill Ankara’s tutelage, drawing fur- is only a matter of time. baffling, disjointed and short- by bombing two schools and a 28 anti-government protest- ther tremors around the Middle Ankara’s military operations sighted. Sending Syrian fighters market area with warplanes. ers in June 2011. Now, having in the Kurdish-majority areas of into conflict zones in Libya when For Assad, control of Sara- been strafed by jets, shelled and north-eastern Syria, of course, they are badly needed to fight off qib has been a long-term goal killed, with hundreds of thou- do mean it has a keen interest in the Assad assault in Idlib is one because it’s a first step towards sands again fleeing violence, the Even as the tide turns Syrian affairs and it one day very such head-scratcher. control of a highway linking La- one entity its residents thought unerringly in well may reach its goals within Even as the tide turns un- takia on the Mediterranean coast they could depend on — their Damascus’ favour, the Kurdish sphere but Turkey’s erringly in Damascus’ favour, with Aleppo in the north-east — a Turkish neighbours to the north original stated aim of marshal- Erdogan clings on, apparently corridor of major strategic and — have failed them, too. Erdogan clings on, ling the overthrow of the Assad blind to realities on the ground. logistical importance. apparently blind to regime has failed. In January, the Turkish presi- Maaret al-Numan was one of Stephen Starr is the author of To be sure, it’s not all Turkey’s dent sent armoured vehicles the first towns in Syria to experi- “Revolt in Syria: Eye-Witness to realities on the fault. It has helped cushion the and troops into Idlib to establish ence the full range of the Syrian the Uprising” and has lived in ground. humanitarian fallout of the war an observation post south of regime’s merciless brutality Syria and Turkey since 2007. US hopes for stalemate in Syria bound to be disappointed

stabilised the situation by territo- four in Deir ez-Zor and two in power. In place of such an elusive tive control over areas abandoned rial defining limits on Turkey and Raqqa. There is a garrison manned victory, the Obama administration by Washington regularly bump Russia and enabling the continu- by 200 or so troops at Al-Tanf near and now Trump have been forced up against US troops, who control Geoffrey Aronson ation of another “forever war” at Syria’s south-eastern border with to slash their definition of victory vital areas accessing the border acceptable cost and largely out Iraq. to a bloody stalemate. with Iraq and the Conoco oilfields of public view. This is far from an The SDF controls only 30% of Even this pinched objective near Deir ez Zor. On several occa- ideal outcome but for Washington the territory it held before the US eludes them. The Assad govern- sions during the past few weeks, t is not surprising that there it is “good enough.” withdrawal. The Syrian Army, ment, with critical assistance from US forces blocked the advance of was hardly a mention of “[The US] is not going to be along with Russia and the SDF, Moscow, Tehran and a wink from Russian military police patrols. Syria — US President Donald here for 100 years,” explained controls most of the rest, including Baghdad, is on the march. Assad James Jeffrey, Trump’s Syria Trump’s land of “sand and US Marine Corps General Frank the east of the Euphrates border cannot long survive the stalemate. envoy, initially minimised disputes death” — in the State of the McKenzie during a recent visit to zone with Turkey, which itself is He has always had a simple objec- such as the ones near the Rmelan Union address. A war that the Green Village military out- deployed along a small zone south tive — crushing the opposition and oilfields along the critical M4 high- Ionce commanded the attention post, east of Deir ez-Zor. “I frankly of the border. “liberating every inch of Syrian way as mere “dust ups.” of US policymakers is the all-but- don’t know how long we’re going Trump hopes that the Pandora’s territory — and that includes Idlib A few days ago, Jeffrey adopted forgotten stepchild of US interests to be here and I have no instruc- box that is Syria has been shut and as well as east of the Euphrates. a more urgent tone, explaining in the Middle East. tions other than to continue to the “pundit fools who have called Referring to this issue, Ali Akbar that: “The vast majority of these Since the assassination of Irani- work with our [Syrian Democratic the Middle East wrong for 20 Velayati, a top adviser to Iranian incidents… represent the Russians an Major-General Qassem Soleim- Forces] SDF partner here.” years” silenced. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali trying to move into the far north- ani, US forces have been more As of mid-December, US forces, It is true that the Washington Khamenei, said during a news east where they do have the town concerned with force protection numbering around 750, were policy establishment that Trump conference January 30 that “the — the city of , where there than the campaigns against the deployed at 11 bases and military so abhors long ago gave up any Syrian government and its allies are Russian and Syrian forces… Islamic State and Syrian President posts in north-eastern Syria, in- dream of defeating its enemies from the resistance front will go The Russians have legitimate Bashar Assad. More broadly, US cluding five in Hasakah province, in Syria or removing Assad from from Idlib to the eastern Euphrates needs to move their forces into Secretary of Defence Mark Esper to expel the Americans.” that area, but we have deconflic- observed that he worries more This is not idle talk and it has tion agreements and we find them about Russian advances in Egypt caught the United States flat- violating them to one or another and Saudi Arabia than in Syria. footed. degree in there. Esper was reflecting the views At no time since the outbreak “Now, more serious is we have of his boss. Trump set the tone for of war in 2011 has Washington’s seen a number — a limited number the new look in US policy when, desire for a debilitating stalemate of occasions… where they have on October 25, he tweeted: “COM- that will prevent the government’s tried to come deep into the area ING HOME! We were supposed and the “resistance axis’s vic- where we and the SDF are patrol- to be there for 30 days. That was tory worked. Syria is a dynamic ling. Those are the ones that worry 10 years ago. When these pundit environment, where those hoping me.” fools who have called the Middle to simply run in place have always As with the successful policy East wrong for 20 years ask what been outmanoeuvred by a regime “deconfliction” in the air, adopted we are getting out of the deal, I and, most important, an ally in after Russia’s entry into the war in simply say, THE OIL, AND WE ARE Moscow determined to move the September 2015, these confronta- BRINGING OUR SOLDIERS BACK battlefield and the diplomatic tions have been regularly and pro- HOME, ISIS SECURED!” arena in their favour. fessionally defused. Washington is In Trump’s world, the United The US retreat in October content to hold what it already has States has nothing to look for in opened a new arena in which the and hope for the best. Bilad al-Sham. contest between Russian expan- However, Russia and its allies Syria is a strategic backwater, sion and the United States’ unre- are on the march. For them “good where, as in Afghanistan “good quited hope for an uneasy status enough” is not enough. enough” must suffice in place of a quo are being played out. US victory… or defeat. Russian forces accompanying Geoffrey Aronson is a non- Washington hopes that its Strict minimum. US soldiers patrol a road in the town of Tal Tamr Syrian national forces seeking to resident scholar at the Middle retreat east of the Euphrates in the Syrian Hasakah province, January 26. (AFP) expand military and administra- East Institute in Washington. February 9, 2020 11 Viewpoint Iraq Iraq’s new prime minister is more of the same

Further, it will not escape their attention that he is the cousin of Tallha Iraq’s first post-invasion prime Abdulrazaq minister, Iyad Allawi, who was a pillar of the corrupt system that is now in place and that has fter the agreement reduced the lives of Iraqis to a between the major pitiful tragedy of sectarianism, a parliamentary blocs, lack of economic opportunity and Iraqi President Bar- rampant and untameable corrup- ham Salih appointed tion. With such a family pedigree, Mohammed Allawi as and with flip-flopping radical and primeA minister-designate, moving violent clerics such as Muqtada forward with a candidate to replace al-Sadr putting his weight behind former Prime Minister Adel Abdul- Allawi, is it any wonder protesters Mahdi who was effectively forced rejected him? to resign because of his violent Allawi, al-Sadr and Iraq’s elite mishandling of the protest move- have no shame and no regard for ment that has rocked Iraq since last the protesters. They simply see October. them as tools in their quest for Salih charged Allawi with form- power. As long as this remains ing a new cabinet within a month the same, normal Iraqis will have and Allawi promised a government no choice but to press on in their staffed with ministers who are principled fight for change or else competent and not compromised risk being under the boot of the by their political connections. corrupt for another 17 years. While all of this sounds promis- The Iraqi people are too noble ing to outsiders unfamiliar with and proud to allow themselves to Iraqi political affairs, the protesters be made fools of and Baghdad’s made it abundantly clear they are politicians should take heed of not interested in buying whatever that. Allawi has to sell. Within minutes of the announce- Tallha Abdulrazaq is a researcher ment of his appointment February at the University of Exeter’s Unyielding. Protesters chant slogans while holding a poster of newly appointed Prime Minister 1, demonstrators filled the streets Strategy and Security Institute in Mohammed Allawi with that reads, “Rejected by the people,” during a demonstration in Najaf, of Baghdad, chanting “Allawi is England. February 6. (AP) rejected! Allawi is rejected!” This gave a clear picture that the new PM-designate is viewed no differ- ently than the rest of the political Iraq’s subaltern push back against Sadrist saboteurs class, despite his entreaties to the protesters to keep up their demon- strations “because if you are not burned in minutes, torched by sponsibility to protect protesters. ranks and to sow discord.” with me, I [Allawi] won’t be able to armed men who were identified As clashes quietened, Interior Hazem al-Helfi, a Peace Brigade do anything.” in local Iraqi media as Sadrist sup- Minister Yassin al-Yasiri arrived at commander, was reportedly killed after being shot twice in the head. The fact that Allawi had to admit Nazli Tarzi porters. the southern city, accompanied to being powerless to make sub- Flying Molotov cocktails, by Najaf Mayor Luay al-Yasiri and Witness testimonies suggest stantive changes without massive hand grenades, live ammunition Chief of Police Faeq al-Fatlawi. that responsibility belongs to al- pressure external to Baghdad’s he takeover of the and beatings by ominous actors The doctors’ syndicate in Najaf Sadr loyalists, militia men turned halls of power vindicated the building known marked further escalation two confirmed seven deaths and more watchmen. Beyond adopted protesters’ position that he is an in Baghdad as the weeks after al-Sadr endorsed than 100 injuries, including gun- monikers, the propensity for unsuitable candidate. Turkish Restaurant, the central government over the shot and shrapnel wounds. violence as a political function Allawi very much embodies the a discarded edifice masses’ protests. “Police forces were present has been consistently used by “new order” class of Iraqi political that ordinary people Ambulances transported the when Sadrists opened fire at al-Sadr’s followers, helping them elites that emerged following the Treclaimed 100 days ago, turbo- injured to hospitals. With some crowds but they [the police] did maintain political relevance and US-led invasion that toppled dec- charged violent confrontations hospitals reaching capacity, oth- not respond,” one Karbala witness reverence of their leader. ades of Ba’athist rule in 2003. beyond Baghdad’s epicentre. ers were relocated to makeshift said. “But for how long?” Iraqi activ- The violent surge came one medical tents. A member of Iraq’s SWAT force ist Amer, from Baghdad, asked. day after Iraqi Prime Minister- A war of words erupted online was “shot in the leg,” the witness In defiance of violent strategies The Iraqi people are designate Mohammed Allawi over the identity of the culprits. said, adding that, although “pro- by state-affiliated forces, hun- was sworn into office. Since then Some defended the Blue Hats but testers allowed passage to SWAT dreds of students rallied in the too noble and proud civilians donning blue caps and others insisted they were to blame forces, they withdrew from the streets February 6. Analysts have to allow themselves carrying pistols, knives and clubs for the casualties. scene in no time.” maintained that al-Sadr’s ability have flooded protest squares. As violence and casualties The question was how and from to move the centre renders him to be made fools of They are unofficially known as mounted, Sadrist spokesman where did saboteurs acquire hand powerful but mobilising student and Baghdad’s the Blue Hats, loyalists of cleric Saleh Mohammed al-Iraqi de- grenades, such as those thrown at masses established their weight politicians should Muqtada al-Sadr. Their presence clared that “total control over unarmed demonstrators. as tactical players that cannot be garnered much attention, with Sadrayn Square” had been estab- The spokesman of al-Sadr-com- corralled by any political party, take heed of that. the crowd accusing them of lished. He said “all infiltrators manded Peace Brigade militia, Sa- faction or bloc. sabotaging, assaulting and killing have fled the scene.” faa al-Tamimi, said “the Blue Hats Before confrontations turned Allawi, a 65-year-old Shia Arab, protesters. However, their use of Commander of Asa’ib Ahl al- have been present across protest violent, young people in southern began his political career in the violence has not soured senti- Haq militia Qais al-Khazali called sites for the past four months cities drove out Blue Hat mem- aftermath of the US-led invasion ments and protesters continue to on the state to restrict the use and, in that time, there had been bers from protest areas but the and twice served as communica- peacefully push back. of arms to official actors and re- no confrontation between them show of force drove many peace- tions minister under Iraqi Prime New waves of violence engulfed establish central command of its and protesters.” He said the latest ful resistors away. Minister Nuri al-Maliki. He resigned Najaf on February 5. Tents that security apparatus. Allawi urged chapter of violence was written Similar events in Baghdad both times, alleging corruption and stood firm since last October the government to fulfil its re- by “those that want a split in the inspired civic action by the Stu- interference in personnel appoint- dents Union, which introduces its ments in his ministry. “Our pen, our dignity” initiative If he knew Maliki was corrupt to respond to the violence by “al- the first time, the question remains Sadr’s militias,” a member of the why he agreed to work for him union said. “They arrested a few again. After all, it is not as though of our members, including a girl,” Maliki, who ruled Iraq for eight the young male said. years in an orgy of sectarian blood- EU Ambassador to Iraq Martin lust, made any attempt at showing Huth described events in Najaf he was reformed. as a “sabotage of any political Indeed, and despite his apparent- progress.” ly principled stance in vacating his The flame of the popular move- post due to corruption, Allawi was ment that was lit last October oddly silent when Iraqi protesters has not been dimmed by the were being mauled by the thou- spike in violent attacks, which sands during Iraq’s first significant former head of the parliamentary protest movement, which began Defence and Security Committee in 2012 and lasted until Maliki Hakim al-Zamili dismissed live on killed protesters in 2013, opening state-run Al Iraqiya television as the floodgates for Islamic State “a US-sponsored pantomime.” terrorists to burn one-third of the “Show me the martyrs. Where country. In the present day, about are they?” Zamili said. 500 protesters have died, yet Allawi The movement has proven is unashamedly asking them to stay itself the most immovable object in the street to die for his sake. in contemporary Iraqi history, Iraqi politicians need to start which has pronounced lines of respecting the intelligence of their political difference between rival constituents. They are willing to parties that govern the post-2003 die but for freedom not an estab- order. lishment figure like Allawi who showed a disregard for the rights Boiling point. Iraqi demonstrators burn tyres to block a road during anti-government protests in Nazli Tarzi is an Arab Weekly and lives of demonstrators in previ- Najaf, February 5. (Reuters) correspondent in London. ous years. 12 February 9, 2020 Viewpoint Lebanon Will Hezbollah impose its foreign policy on Lebanon?

crisis. Nasrallah recently boast- ed that Hezbollah’s supporters have been the least affected by Rami Rayess Lebanon’s economic crisis. In terms of foreign policy, the new cabinet platform seems to espite marginal adopt the same old version of support, Leba- previous cabinets. The tripar- non’s new cabinet tite formula of the state, people headed by Prime and the resistance uniting to Minister Hassan confront external — particularly Diab is expected Israeli — threats has outlived Dto gain parliament’s vote of several presidents and cabinets confidence. Four major political and still survives. parties initially refrained from Aoun, formerly a staunch supporting Diab’s nomination opponent of Hezbollah and the and they are not expected to Syrian regime, flip-flopped to se- extend their confidence. cure his election as president in The Future Movement, 2016. Before parliamentary elec- Progressive Socialist Party, tions in May 2018, he publicly Lebanese Forces and the Kataeb promised to call for a national Party have a total of 47 deputies, discussion on Lebanon’s na- not enough to block the parlia- tional security strategy which is Looking back. Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri attends a parliamentary session in Beirut, mentary vote of confidence. It is somehow supposed to incorpo- September 2004. (AFP) even worse in the cabinet given rate Hezbollah’s arms within the that it is made up entirely of state’s apparatus. He retreated ministers supported by Hezbol- from that pledge after the elec- lah, the Free Patriotic Movement tions, saying such a discussion Is it still too early to judge and their allies. was no longer necessary. During the period that Aoun’s son-in-law, Gebran Bassil, served as foreign minister, there Rafik Hariri’s legacy? Normalising relations was almost total similitude be- with Damascus now tween the so-called official state position and that of Hezbollah. was also surprisingly humble. 1996, I interviewed Hariri for seems to be a top With the new cabinet enjoying I once brought up with him BBC radio. When I asked him his priority for Hezbollah the full support of Hezbollah the lack of public access to the opinion of Al-Manar, Hezbol- after leaked and its allies, this position is not Gareth Smyth seafront, which is required in lah’s TV station, he said his tel- expected to drastically change. Lebanon by law, and the many evision at home wasn’t tuned to information appears Another complicated issue illegal buildings below high tide. receive it. It was a clever answer to show that Diab is in in Lebanon’s foreign policy is n February 14, I told the prime minister that delivered for radio with impec- relations with the government 2005, I flew from Beirut’s Hamam al-Askari, the cable timing. favour of such a step. of Syrian President Bashar As- northern Iraq military swimming club, had Perhaps this mixture of sad, given that its forces have to Beirut. Rest- once been a sandy beach where directness and diplomacy was With the traditional balance regained control over nearly ing in the Erbil all could walk or swim. why some of Hariri’s finest mo- of power in Lebanese politics all the country thanks to the departures hall, I He disagreed, saying he ments were in crisis. During the upset in favour of Hezbollah support of Moscow and the so- Obarely noticed a silent television remembered that area as a child 1996 Israeli “Grapes of Wrath” and its allies, fears are mounting called “axis of resistance,” which showing what I assumed was and it had never been a sandy attacks and the Qana massacre, regarding Hezbollah’s ability to includes Hezbollah. the latest bombing in Iraq. Then beach. So, the next time I went he was genuinely statesman- impose its agenda on the coun- Normalising relations with I recognised Ain Mreisseh on the to see him I took an old poster like — not exactly common in try’s foreign policy. Hezbollah Damascus now seems to be a Beirut seafront. — one of the large tourist ones Lebanese politics. Hariri spoke Secretary-General Hassan Nas- top priority for Hezbollah after It was the attack that killed — showing that seafront with its well and he spoke for Lebanon rallah has repeatedly expressed, leaked information appears to former Lebanese Prime Minister sandy beach before the Hamam and not for any particular sect, with pride, his commitment to show that Diab is in favour of Rafik Hariri along with 21 other al-Askari was built. Hariri im- party or interest. the Iranian agenda, including an such a step. people with a massive bomb — mediately admitted he had been emphasis on Hezbollah’s role in Arguments that this rap- estimated at 1,000 kilograms wrong, rare in a Lebanese politi- the so-called regional “axis of prochement is much needed in of explosives. The bomb was cal leader. A few weeks later I resistance.” Lebanon’s economic crisis are detonated shortly after his found out he had framed the Rafik Hariri was an Hezbollah’s power has grown being employed by Hezbollah motorcade left the Lebanese picture and put in on a wall. affable man, energetic tremendously in Lebanon in the and its allies as an introduction parliament. I wrote Hariri’s On another occasion, in a past few years. It gained addi- of what is yet to come. Progres- obituary on a 20-seat, propeller newspaper story, I compared and good company. tional leverage on the local front sive Socialist Party leader Walid aircraft flying over the deserts two jokes about Hariri to show He was also from its 14-year alliance with Jumblatt warned several times of Iraq and Syria and then the how his popularity had declined Lebanese President Michel Aoun that he senses a Syrian come- snow-capped Lebanese peak of over a certain period. In the surprisingly humble. and through an uninterrupted back; one of its early indicators Qurnat as Sawda. first, walking on the Corniche flow of financial and military is the new cabinet and some of Hariri, for me, was a latter- and asked by a magic genie for It is too early to say how his- support from Tehran. its symbols. day Phoenician. Like his a wish, Hariri had replied, “No, tory will judge Hariri. Without These two basic reasons Lebanon is at a crossroads, forebears who traded along the no, what can I do for you?” doubt he was the major figure partially explain Hezbollah’s as it has always been, but the Mediterranean and beyond, he In the second, Hariri met an in post-war Lebanese politics, mushrooming power. Iranian question remains: Will it be the believed in the lure, even the ordinary Beiruti. “I am poor more responsible than anyone support is instrumental not only battlefield one more time? healing power, of commerce. If and can’t pay my bills,” said the for the country’s direction. Re- to ensure Hezbollah’s continued the Lebanese could do business man. “Oh dear,” said Hariri, sur- construction has had successes existence but also for sustaining Rami Rayess is a Lebanese well, then they would forget, prised. “My wife is also poor,” but many burdens resulted its supporters amid Lebanon’s writer. Follow him on Twitter: even overcome, the sectarian- said the man, insisting. “And my from his economic policies. The growing economic and financial @RamiRayess. ism that had fuelled a 15-year children are poor.” Hariri finally public debt is $78 billion and civil war and that still defined looked concerned: “And your the Lebanese ask whether this Lebanese politics. servants?” he asked. “Are they money has been wisely spent. It was a strategy and the poor, too?” Corruption has been rampant country was short of leaders One of Hariri’s aides com- and many farmers lack basic with any strategy. Hariri was a plained that including such irrigation. There are no railways good storyteller and he told the jokes in a newspaper showed and the lack of 24-hour electric- Lebanese how they might move a lack of respect for the prime ity reflects a creaking infrastruc- forward. He once insisted to minister. Such remarks can lead ture. me that the Lebanese all ate the to a reporter being denied access When I went to see Hariri same food and celebrated each but Hariri wanted none of it, he just before I moved to Iran in other’s religious festivals. “The enjoyed the story. If he didn’t al- December 2003, he feigned problem,” he said, “is with the ready know what people said in surprise. “You are a journalist,” politicians, not the people.” shared taxis, then he wanted to he said. “Why are you leaving? Hariri was an affable man, find out. This was more impor- Here in Lebanon, if you spend energetic and good company. He tant to him than his own ego. ten minutes on the phone or For the Lebanese, Hariri was watching satellite television, larger than life. Not only did you can know what’s going on they swap jokes about him, they anywhere in the world. In Iran, Without doubt Hariri passed on rumours about pieces in ten years you won’t know was the major figure of land and property he had what’s going on in the next in post-war Lebanese supposedly bought, sometimes house.” That was the last time I imagining his financial tentacles saw him. May he rest in peace. politics, more in unlikely places. responsible than In interviewing Hariri, the Gareth Smyth is a regular Upset balance. Lebanon’s Prime Minister Hassan Diab (L) speaks with “harder” the questions, the bet- contributor to The Arab Weekly. President Michel Aoun during a cabinet meeting, February 6. anyone for the ter he answered. The first time He has reported from the Middle (Reuters) country’s direction. I went to Lebanon, in January East since 1992. February 9, 2020 13 News & Analysis Gulf After PM sacking, Qatar continues courting Ankara

The Arab Weekly staff ruling al-Thani family, that the described by critics as a mere em- country will withdraw further Arab ployee in the emir’s court who lacks connections and become increas- political vision. London ingly involved in an unequal rela- Western diplomatic sources at- tionship with Turkey, which could tributed Sheikh Abdullah’s sacking atari Minister of Foreign turn Qatar into a tool for Erdogan’s to the recent signing of a security Affairs Sheikh Moham- expansionary projects. agreement with Turkey that was med bin Abdulrahman Ties between Qatar and Turkey imposed on him. Q al-Thani travelled to Tur- surpass traditional economic and Sources claimed Sheikh Abdul- key, the first visit of its kind since political relations and could allow lah, who was also interior minister, the dismissal of Sheikh Abdullah Ankara access to Qatar’s wealth, questioned the agreement Doha bin Nasser bin Khalifa al-Thani as which would compromise Qatari signed with Ankara to, ostensibly, prime minister. security because of the presence of protect the FIFIA 2022 World Cup Sheikh Mohammed met with Turkish troops in its country. with the Turkish security forces but Turkish President Recep Tayyip Er- The Qatar-Turkey military rela- the deal will last beyond the World dogan and Turkish Foreign Minister tionship claimed a causality in the Cup. Mevlut Cavusoglu during the Feb- political sense with the replacement Qatari and Turkish official news ruary 4 visit. The trip was report- of Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Ab- agencies were vague on details of edly intended to solidify the rela- dullah bin Nasser al-Thani. the high-level Qatar-Turkey meet- tionship that links Doha to Ankara. Although publicly the cabinet ings February 4. Sheikh Moham- reshuffle appeared to be a smooth med posted on Twitter that he had transition, a report by Qatar Leaks, “an excellent meeting” with Erdog- Western diplomatic sources an activist-run news site that focus- an and Cavusoglu. attributed Sheikh es on the Qatari government, said Several Gulf Arab countries have Abdullah’s sacking to the Sheikh Abdullah was dismissed issues with Turkey because of its recent signing of a security because of disagreements with Qa- support for the Muslim Brother- agreement with Turkey that tari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad hood, which is banned in countries was imposed on him. al-Thani regarding Qatari foreign such as Saudi Arabia, the United policy, particularly relations with Arab Emirates, and Egypt. The frequency of Qatari-Turkish Iran, and Sheikh Tamim’s plans to Those four countries severed contacts reflects an expansion of increase Turkish military bases in ties with Doha in June 2017 over relations between the two coun- Doha. what they described as the Qatari tries, including their support for Sheikh Abdullah’s successor, government’s support for terror- extremist movements. Sheikh Khalid bin Khalifa bin Ab- ism and Islamic groups such as the Sterile politics. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L) There is reportedly fear among dulaziz al-Thani, is known as a con- Muslim Brotherhood, as well as its and Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani in Doha, last Qataris, including members of the fidant of Sheikh Tamim and was ties to Iran. November. (Reuters) Yemeni government Trump says US troops defect to Southern operation killed Transitional Council al-Qaeda leader

Mohammed Alkhereiji Socotra Mayor Ramzi Mahrous Dhabi convinced both sides to gave the defectors 24 hours to re- reach a peace deal in November. join the government’s ranks “or The agreement called for the in Yemen London else.” formation of a new government within 30 days of its signing, to be espite being on the same made up of 24 ministers, 12 from Deb Reichmann side in the war against the After the deadline, the the south and 12 from the north. Iran-allied Houthi rebels, Yemeni Army reportedly It would have also placed tens of D the internationally recog- dismissed the defectors thousands of STC fighters under Washington nised government of Yemen and from its ranks. the command of Yemen’s interior the Southern Transitional Council and defence ministries. However, S President Donald appear headed for another con- Describing the development as a the deadline for the government’s Trump said the United frontation. “dangerous precedent,” Mahrous formation expired with renewed States conducted a coun- The dispute stems from a gov- said, in a February 3 posting on hostilities. U terterrorism operation ernment military battalion on the Facebook, that the state would not Another agreement was signed in Yemen that killed Qassim al- island of Socotra defecting to the stand idly by amid such a “heinous in January, which led to a prisoner Rimi, an al-Qaeda leader who separatist Southern Transitional act, which seeks to sow strife and exchange. claimed responsibility for last Council (STC). A military source division.” A report in late January by the year’s deadly shooting at Naval Air told Al-Masdar News that the 1st After the deadline, the Yemeni SAM for Rights and Liberties, a hu- Station Pensacola, where a Saudi Infantry Brigade’s Coastal Protec- Army reportedly dismissed the de- man rights organisation, claimed aviation trainee killed three US tion Battalion in Socotra pledged fectors from its ranks. the STC set up a checkpoint at the sailors. allegiance to the STC. Friction between the Yemeni entrance of the provincial capital Rimi was a founder of al-Qaeda “Officers in the battalion loyal to government and the STC, which Zinjibar and turned back 200 peo- in the Arabian Peninsula, long the United Arab Emirates who had occasionally resulted in violence, ple, including women and chil- considered the global al-Qaeda A blow to al-Qaeda. A file photo overthrown the battalion’s leader- escalated significantly in August. dren, some of whom were wound- network’s most dangerous branch of a suspected military ship after a UAE emissary and STC Fighting between the groups re- ed or disabled and were seeking for its attempts to carry out at- chief of al-Qaeda network leaders in Socotra promised them sulted in STC troops taking control medical treatment. tacks in the United States. Trump in Yemen, identified as better wages, equal to those of the of government positions in the A Saudi delegation arranged said the United States and its al- Qassim al-Rimi. (AFP) UAE-backed Security Belt forces,” temporary capital Aden. to meet with Security Belt forces lies were safer as a result of Rimi’s the source was quoted as saying. Intervention by Riyadh and Abu said to be preventing civilians death. from northern provinces from “We will continue to protect the The shooting focused public at- entering. American people by tracking down tention on the presence of foreign For decades, Southern Yemenis and eliminating terrorists who students in US military training have said they were exploited by seek to do us harm,” Trump said programmes and exposed short- leaders in the north. The anti-gov- February 6. comings in the screening of cadets. ernment sentiment led to the for- While Trump confirmed reports In January, the United States sent mation of the Southern Mobility that Rimi had been killed, he did home 21 Saudi military students, Movement in 2007, which has the not say when the US operation was saying the trainees had jihadist or re-establishment of South Yemen conducted or offer details about anti-American sentiments on so- as an independent state as its main how it was carried out. cial media pages or had “contact goal. Rimi had said in an 18-minute with child pornography,” including STC President Aidarus al-Zou- video that his group was respon- in internet chat rooms. baidi and Yemeni President Abd sible for the December 6 shoot- Trump’s announcement con- Rabbo Mansour Hadi also have a ing at the Florida base. He called firmed indications that Rimi had history of bad blood, stemming the shooter, Saudi Air Force been killed. In late January, a sus- from May 2017 when Hadi sacked Lieutenant Mohammed Alsham- pected US drone strike destroyed Zoubaidi as Aden governor, which rani, a “courageous knight” and a a building housing al-Qaeda mili- led to Zoubaidi joining forces with “hero.” tants in eastern Yemen. On Feb- southern separatists who eventu- The shooter opened fire in a ruary 1, Trump retweeted several ally rebranded themselves as the classroom at the base, killing three other tweets and media reports STC. people and wounding two sheriff’s that seemed to support rumours “Dangerous precedent.” A Yemeni government soldier holds a deputies before one of the depu- that the strike had killed Rimi. weapon as he stands by an emblem of the Southern Transitional Mohammed Alkhereiji is the Gulf ties killed him. Eight others were Council at the council’s headquarters in Ataq, last August. (Reuters) section editor of The Arab Weekly. hurt. (The Associated Press) 14 February 9, 2020 News & Analysis Palestine Israel Anger at Trump plan a possible driver of Arab-Israeli votes

Joseph Krauss using a term for segregated home- and Mohammed Daraghnmeh lands from apartheid-era South Africa. Since the Middle East peace Umm Al-Fahm initiative was announced, US of- ficials have played down the brief t might have seemed to be one section of the 50-page plan that of the more innocuous ele- discusses the Arab Triangle. ments in US President Donald “This is a territorial re-alloca- I Trump’s deeply divisive Mid- tion. It is not intended to affect Catch 22. A Palestinian protester cuts through the wire along Israel’s security barrier during a dle East peace initiative: the sug- anybody’s citizenship,” US Am- demonstration against a US-brokered peace proposal, near Ramallah, February 7. (AFP) gestion that a densely populated bassador to Israel David Friedman Arab region of Israel be added to said. “If there was interest in it, I a future Palestinian state, if both would suspect there would be a sides agree. lengthy legal discussion on how It is time to get real about Instead, the proposal infuriated to implement it. The Palestinians many of Israel’s Arab citizens, are welcome to engage.” who view it as a form of forced Israeli media cited unnamed of- transfer. They want no part in the ficials as saying Netanyahu had the Palestinians’ predicament Palestinian state envisioned by no intention of implementing the the Trump administration. Many idea and is focused on other parts compared it to areas set aside for of the plan. His office declined to leaders have done — could be a big to mobilise its own people. black South Africans as part of the comment on the reports or the mistake that hinders them from While it might be difficult for all apartheid government’s policy of idea of transferring the Arab Tri- achieving future gains. of us who believe in a just solution racial segregation. angle but the idea is not new. Iman Zayat The shortcomings of the Deal of to the conflict to admit the bitter Avigdor Lieberman, head of the the Century are clear. It cynically realities at hand, it is high time that ultra-nationalist Yisrael Beiteinu conditions eventual Palestinian we face them and deal with them. Hassan Jabareen, director party, has long advocated the etween reality and statehood on its full demilitarisa- It must also be noted that the of the Adalah human transfer of populated Arab areas chimerical dreams lies tion and compensates Palestinians’ Palestinian leadership, whether rights group, predicted to a Palestinian state. His party complexity and between lost territories in the West Bank in Ramallah or Gaza, is no longer the Trump plan will help platform states that Arabs could our hopes for peace and with remote areas near the Egyptian representative of its own people. In rally Arab voters against choose Palestinian citizenship to the Palestinians’ state of border. Even more regrettably, the fact, since its establishment in 1994 Netanyahu. help “end the duality from which affairs lies a persistent proposal gives Israel the green light as a result of the Oslo Accords, the they suffer.” A senior party offi- Bstate of denial — denial of facts on to annex both West Bank settle- PA has actively participated in the The Palestinian Authority in the cial declined to comment on the the ground, denial of the need for ments and the Jordan Valley, as well repression of Palestinians, while West Bank adamantly rejected the Trump plan, saying they were still negotiations and, most important, as recognises full Israeli sovereignty maintaining close ties with the plan, which would allow Israel to studying it. denial of the other’s right to exist. over an undivided Jerusalem. Israeli security apparatus. annex all of its settlements and Israeli officials’ reluctance to While many people around the Still, much of what the plan offers Besides, the PA’s and Hamas’s large parts of the West Bank, leav- discuss the issue could reflect po- world, especially in the Arab region, to Israel, Israel already has and will policies have always been more ing the Palestinians with limited litical calculations ahead of the hold the Palestinian cause dear to never give up. The Jewish state aimed at ensuring their own power autonomy in an archipelago of election — the third in less than a their hearts, they have sometimes has been in control of the Jordan than protecting Palestinians. To enclaves surrounded by Israel. year after no one was able to form failed to concede defeats, think Valley since 1967. It has occupied secure this power, they engaged in Inside Israel, outrage over the a majority coalition. sensibly or deal with facts on the and maintained an unbreakable all forms of condemnable practices, plan could mobilise Arab voters Netanyahu has inveighed ground. headlock on life in Jerusalem for 53 including postponing elections, de- ahead of elections next month, against Arab citizens ahead of By responding emotionally to the years. laying reconciliation between vari- potentially denying Israeli Prime previous elections to mobilise his Palestinian plight, the movement The only pushback to Israel’s ex- ous factions, torturing dissidents, Minister Binyamin Netanyahu right-wing base. Before Septem- has grown disconnected from real- pansion since 1948 has been several suppressing some protests and in- another term and throwing the ber’s vote, he proposed posting ity and failed to act pragmatically. failed wars, coupled with a fiery strumentalising mass mobilisation implementation of the Trump cameras at Arab voting stations, Ultimately, every defeat the campaign of empty rhetoric, with for short-sighted political goals. plan — already a long shot — into accusing his opponents of trying Palestinians have suffered has led which Arabs across the region and The problem is that such inadmis- greater doubt. to “steal” the election. to another. This vicious cycle has Palestinians themselves have grown sible practices, along with years Arab citizens make up about Those tactics backfired when brought us from talk about the disenchanted. of suppressing dissent, have left 20% of Israel’s population. They an Arab coalition emerged as the Arab Peace Initiative based on 1976 A stark reminder of the unfortu- Palestinians disenchanted with can vote but face discrimination third-largest bloc in parliament, borders to US President Donald nate realities that Palestinians will their so-called leaders and unable and higher levels of poverty. They contributing to Netanyahu’s fail- Trump’s Deal of the Century or, as have to deal with in the future came to effectively mobilise for their own have close family ties to Palestin- ure to form a government. some critics have called it, “steal of February 5, when the Trump nation- struggle. ians in the West Bank and Gaza Arab voters sat out many previ- the century.” al security adviser Robert O’Brien Though it might be painful to and many identify as Palestin- ous elections because of squab- But we are where we are and, as defended the US president’s Middle say it out loud, the bitter reality ians. However, they are also deep- bling among their leaders and matters stand, there is concern that East peace plan during a meeting is that the Israeli occupation is ly rooted in lands that are part of apathy borne of marginalisation. Palestinian leaders’ blunt rejection with diplomats in Washington. only one layer of oppression that Israel and most are immersed in No Arab party has ever sat in an of the US plan could lead to Pales- While conceding that Trump’s Palestinians are suffering from. Israeli society. Their political par- Israeli government and none of tinians getting even less tomorrow plan is not perfect, O’Brien defend- This, coupled with Arab countries’ ties advocate reform, not parti- Israel’s main parties has invited or perhaps nothing at all. ed it as a good deal for the Palestin- waning commitment to the cause as tion. them to do so. That said, there is good reason ians, warning that Israeli expansion they struggle with their own issues, Many Jewish Israelis view Arab Hassan Jabareen, director of that Palestinians are not taking the into Palestinian territory would be including in Iraq, Syria, Yemen and citizens with suspicion, seeing the Adalah human rights group, deal seriously. Its conditions carry inevitable. Libya, is worsening the Palestinians’ them as a fifth column sympa- which focuses on Arab citizens, dire consequences for Palestinians “The settlements are going to predicament. thetic to the country’s enemies. predicted the Trump plan will living in Israel or under settler colo- continue to expand. If this freeze We must admit to what we have A small number have been im- help rally Arab voters against Ne- nialism. For them, it is a geopolitical on settlements doesn’t hold, if this avoided for decades: The Palestin- plicated in attacks, including on tanyahu. non-starter. peace process doesn’t work, it may ian cause is not and has never been February 6 when Israeli police say “You have a new campaign, a It is also clear that the deal is be- be physically impossible to have a “the first Arab cause,” as many they killed an Arab citizen in Je- new goal, a new objective and a ing used as a political ploy in Israel two-state solution,” O’Brien said. populist leaders in the region tried rusalem’s Old City after he fired a new discourse,” he said. and the United States. In addition Though perhaps exaggerated, to brand it, either to appeal to the weapon and slightly wounded a to helping Israeli Prime Minister O’Brien’s words remind us that masses to strengthen their grip on police officer. Binyamin Netanyahu bolster his every year the situation only gets power or to divert attention away The Trump plan “contem- Arab citizens make up popularity, the deal is also part of worse for Palestinians — and that from their undemocratic and some- plates the possibility” that an about 20% of Israel’s Trump’s efforts to secure votes trend is not expected to change. times dictatorial practices. area known as the Arab Triangle, population. They can vote before the US presidential election A recent UN report stated that The question is: How should the which abuts the West Bank and but face discrimination this year. there was a 45% increase in demoli- Palestinians deal with the situation? is home to more than 250,000 and higher levels of While all of this is true, it is also tions and confiscation of Palestinian For a reasonable solution to be Arab citizens, could be added to poverty. the case that the US proposition structures in the West Bank in 2019 reached, Palestinians should first a future Palestinian state if both gives Palestinians an opportunity from 2018. At the same time, the let go of the decades-long state sides agree. The border would be In a broader sense, the plan to return to the negotiation table. Israeli government approved the of denial and look beyond what redrawn and no one would be up- could hasten the transition from Refusing to engage with it — and construction of housing units and their so-called leaders in the West rooted from their homes. a struggle for Palestinian inde- instead resorting to age-old denials illegal outposts, strengthening its Bank and Gaza are proposing and However, it raises questions of pendence to one demanding civil and fiery rhetoric, as Palestinian grip on the disputed land. suggesting. They should take their consent, because residents of the rights in one binational state. To contend with these realities, fate into their own hands and push area have little power over the Is- With the Palestinian population empty rhetoric, emotional reactions for real negotiations and practical raeli government or the Palestin- of Israel and the occupied territo- and flat-out rejections will do no solutions. ian Authority. ries nearing parity with the Jew- good. Hopefully, the Trump plan is not Jamal Zahalka, a former mem- ish population, that would threat- Though it might be This has proven to be the case a final plan. After all, none of the ber of the Israeli parliament from en Israel’s future as a Jewish and painful to say it out given Palestinian officials’ reac- previous plans or initiatives were the staunchly pro-Palestinian democratic state. tions. The Palestinian Authority’s final, either. True, the time for rosy Balad party, said the plan is the Jabareen said that, with the re- loud, the bitter reality (PA) threats, including to once again dreams is long gone but there is still latest iteration of a decades-old lease of the Trump plan, Palestin- is that the Israeli sever ties with Israel’s security hope for Palestinians if they engage Israeli policy of maximising ter- ians are increasingly comparing occupation is only agencies and calls for mass protests with the international community ritory while preserving its Jewish the situation to apartheid, adding against the proposed deal, have and Arab countries and secure real majority. “They want more land that the “remedy to apartheid is a one layer of been completely ineffective. concessions from Israel through and less Arabs, that’s the point,” one-state solution.” oppression that If anything, the PA has only serious and direct negotiations. he said. shown its inability to produce a “We will have the bantustan of (The Associated Press. AP Palestinians are powerful reaction to any infringe- Iman Zayat is Managing Editor of the triangle here, part of the Pal- producer Audrey Horowitz suffering from. ment on Palestinian rights or even The Arab Weekly estinian bantustans,” he added, contributed to this report.) February 9, 2020 15 Viewpoint Iran Parliamentary elections in Iran: A circus, but no bread

Rohani, in a televised address January 15, directly attacked the Guardian Council’s election engi- Ali Alfoneh neering through disqualification of candidates: “Don’t tell us there are 17, 170 or 17,000 candidates for s Iran prepares for each parliamentary seat,” Ro- parliamentary elec- hani said. “Let us see how many tions February 21, its factions are represented among citizens are once again those 17 candidates… It’s no elec- watching supreme tion if all 17 candidates belong to ringmaster Ali Khame- the same faction.” neiA present his troupe of clowns, In his concluding salvo, Rohani magicians, acrobats and jugglers. said: “The people want diver- The circus artists will doubtlessly sity. Let all [political] parties and deliver their well-rehearsed perfor- groups participate in the elections mances but will the Iranian public and it will definitely not be to play its expected role by voting at your detriment.” the grand finale? Rohani, of course, did not Pre-empting the supreme ring- explain why he has not shown a master, Iranian President Hassan similar concern for “diversity” Rohani opened the show October 9 of candidates throughout his 40- by praising the first, and arguably year political career. freest, parliamentary election in The Guardian Council offered the history of the Islamic Republic. the explanation. Within an hour In the March 13, 1980, elections after Rohani’s criticism, the Rohani said: “There was no moni- council issued a statement accus- toring of the kind we see now. There ing the president of “ignorance was no Guardian Council… and of the vetting process.” Abbas-Ali different factions registered [their Kadkhodaei, Guardian Council candidates]. Even the Monafeqin spokesman, on Twitter alluded to [a reference to the oppositional disqualification of Rohani’s son- People’s Mujahedeen of Iran], the in-law as the main motive behind Political transactions. Iran’s Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani (L) and President Hassan Rohani during [Iran] Freedom Movement and the president’s criticism. a parliamentary session in Tehran, last December. (AFP) the National Front registered their By February 1, contours of a candidates. This resulted in the best political purge of the parliament ians belong to factions supportive degenerated into a farce: Parlia- Kadkhodaei… He asked: ‘Why did election and the best parliament! began to emerge. Kadkhodaei, of Rohani and outgoing parlia- mentarian Tayebeh Siavoshi was you, in a speech, say our involve- Let us not be so strict and let us not speaking at a news conference, mentary Speaker Ali Larijani. disqualified on grounds of “lack- ments in Syria and Yemen entail narrow the filter.” said 16,033 individuals had regis- In a rare show of bravery, ing commitment to the regime.” a cost and the sanctions are effec- tered as candidates competing for Larijani openly challenged the After she protested the ruling, the tive?’” 290 parliamentary seats. “Twen- Guardian Council allegation of Guardian Council sent her a letter Heydari was disqualified on ty-odd percent” were disqualified “economic corruption” among adding “lack of practical commit- grounds of lacking commitment on grounds of “economic corrup- parliamentarians. After all, if cur- ment to Islam” to the grounds on to the regime. If current tion,” lack of “practical commit- rent parliamentarians are engaged which she was disqualified. Amid the drama, mayhem and parliamentarians are ment to the guardianship of the in economic corruption, as the Another parliamentarian, Ali the farce, supreme ringmaster jurist” and the like. However, he Guardian Council claims, why Motahari, was first disqualified Khamenei on February 5 urged engaged in economic strenuously dismissed allegations does the judiciary not indict those but was offered a way out by the “anyone who loves Iran to vote.” corruption, as the of the Guardian Council systemat- corrupt parliamentarians? Guardian Council if he “falls into Will the Iranian public, sick of the Guardian Council ically disqualifying Rohani’s allies Larijani’s defence for fellow par- line.” He declined. breadless circus of the Islamic among the candidates. liamentarians is as unprecedented Gholamreza Heydari, a third Republic, play its role in the grand claims, why does the A survey of disqualified candi- as Rohani’s concern for political parliamentarian, was disquali- finale and vote? judiciary not indict dates who serve as parliamentar- diversity but this, too, is expected fied and, when he protested, ians and whose factional affilia- from a man who is preparing to was summoned to the Guardian Ali Alfoneh is a senior fellow at those corrupt tion is known suggests otherwise: run for president in 2021. Council: “An ‘expert’ with a file in the Arab Gulf States Institute in parliamentarians? Most disqualified parliamentar- The entire process quickly his hands was sitting next to Mr Washington. Iran’s iron curtain is falling

which are Arab countries and ter- of the “Star Wars” defence system, ritories, except for Afghanistan, a system of missiles in space capa- Khairallah to be satellites and bargaining ble of intercepting and disrupting Khairallah cards. Its goal is to perpetuate its any missile attack on the United regional role, regardless of the States. misery that afflicts most Iranians. Time has revealed that Reagan’s rrogance leads no- The deterioration of the plan was more akin to science where. economy in the Islamic Repub- fiction than reality but it served to In his State of the lic must be considered a natural reveal that the Soviet Union was Union address, US consequence of the arrogance in no way capable of competing President Donald that characterises the actions and with the United States in an arms Trump mentioned declarations of senior Iranian of- race of this type. It showed that IranA in passing. Just like former ficials. They refuse to admit they the Soviet economy resembled a President Ronald Reagan, who in have no solutions to Iran’s internal colossus with clay legs. 1981 began doggedly pursuing the problems, especially as they let The economic fragility of the So- dismantling of the former Soviet the country remain captive to its viet Union had consequences on Behind a curtain. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Union, Trump seems to be on his oil and gas exports. Even on the the ground. On January 13, 1986, speaks at a celebration of the 41st anniversary of the 1979 Islamic way to earnestly bringing down a external front, there is no success- the situation in South Yemen, Revolution. (DPA) country he sees as an enemy to its ful Iranian model that can be pre- which was then called the People’s real size. sented in any political, economic Democratic Republic of Yemen That feat would allow him to or civilisational field. (PDRY), exploded. This republic country that possessed nuclear the Ukrainian president to dig dirt leave his mark on the history of Iran refuses to deal with the was independent and remained so reactors but was unable to ensure on the Bidens, they displayed a the Middle East but this is con- regional and international reali- until 1990 when Yemeni unity was their safe functioning. great deal of internal chaos during tingent on his success in doing so ties that arose with the arrival of achieved. Soleimani’s assassination came the Iowa caucuses. Trump is still because Iran has been working Trump at the White House. This The PDRY was a mere Soviet sat- within the context of a catastroph- waiting for a serious Democratic for many years on changing the is why we see Iranian President ellite and served as a foothold for ic economic situation in Iran. He contender for his position. nature of several neighbouring Hassan Rohani talking about re- the communist bear in the Arabian was considered a symbol of the Time is not working in favour of countries and others far from it. establishing the nuclear deal with Peninsula. South Yemen suffered Iranian expansionist project but the interests of the Islamic Repub- In his speech, Trump gave a the Group of Five Plus One that a civil war that marked the end of Iran can no longer come up with a lic just as it did not play in favour realistic description of the state the US president tore apart. Soviet control over the country. response to his killing. The missile of the interests of the Soviet of the Iranian economy and its Rohani does not know, or per- It turned out that the other strikes at Iraq’s al-Asad Airbase Union. Is there anyone in Tehran deterioration considering US sanc- haps he does know very well, that world superpower was nothing was more of a farce than anything who wants to realise that Barack tions. He mentioned the United the nuclear accord is no longer more than a paper tiger. Perhaps else and the accidental downing Obama is no longer president and States’ assassination of Iranian valid for blackmailing anyone and the most prominent evidence of of the Ukrainian passenger plane that no one is willing to negotiate Major-General Qassem Soleimani, that counting on Europe is not a this and the biggest humiliation to revealed that Iran is a third-world with Tehran on its terms, especial- commander of al-Quds Force of safe bet. the communist regime was resort- country at best. ly now that the cards in its hand the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Iran has not overcome one ing to a royal yacht of the Brit- Just as the Soviet Union could no longer have any value? Corps. psychological complex that con- ish monarch to evacuate Soviet not adapt to new realities that ac- Take Lebanon in the era of Hez- Soleimani was the direct super- trols all its actions — the constant nationals from the PDRY. companied Reagan’s arrival to the bollah’s rule, for example, or take visor of Iranian activity in Iraq, denial of its defeat and refusing to The second event that demon- White House, Iran was unable to Iraq now. Lebanon is collapsing Syria, Lebanon and the Palestin- admit failure with the courage it strated the weakness of the former adapt to Trump’s era. since it has been abandoned to its ian territories, especially the Gaza presupposes to carry out a process Soviet regime was the catastroph- Certainly, arrogance is of no use fate by the United States and the Strip, and even in Yemen and of self-criticism. ic Chernobyl nuclear accident to anything. It is equally futile to Arabs. In Iraq, there is a real popu- Afghanistan. His activity consisted In 1986, two events exposed in Ukraine on April 26, 1986. bet on Trump not being elected lar revolution against everything mainly in recruiting sectarian mili- the weakness of the Soviet Union, Ukraine was a Soviet republic and for another term in November. related to the Iranian coloniser. tias to serve the Iranian expansion which Reagan had dragged into an the Chernobyl accident came to Not only have the Democrats project. arms race it could not afford. This confirm, without doubt, that the failed to force him out of office Khairallah Khairallah is a Iran wants each of those areas, was when the US president spoke Soviet Union was a third-world with impeachment for pressuring Lebanese writer. 16 February 9, 2020 News & Analysis Turkey Unresolved Cyprus issue underlies gas dispute in Eastern Mediterranean

Thomas Seibert around the island, where it has Cyprus. On January 2, Greece, Is- granted licences to multinational rael and Cyprus agreed to build an companies for oil and gas re- undersea pipeline to carry gas to urkis officials said pro- search. Europe. Turkey strongly opposes gress in the unresolved Turkey, which does not have the project, which would see part conflict on the divided is- diplomatic relations with Cyprus’s of the 1,900km EastMed pipeline T land of Cyprus could help government, said some areas pass through waters it claims un- defuse the increasingly bitter dis- where Nicosia has operations are der its deal with the Tripoli gov- pute with Ankara’s Eastern Medi- either on the Turkish continental ernment. terranean neighbours over gas de- shelf or in areas where the break- The issue could become a new posits under the sea. away Turkish Cypriot state has problem for Turkey’s troubled “The unresolved Cyprus issue is rights over any finds. In response, relations with the European Un- at the root of the drilling dispute the Cypriot government called ion. Ankara wants to expand Tur- that we have today in the eastern Turkey a “pirate state.” key’s customs union with Europe Mediterranean,” Faruk Kaymakci, Kaymakci said the European to give its economy a boost but Turkey’s deputy foreign minister Union made a “major mistake” by German Chancellor Angela Mer- in charge of EU affairs said via e- accepting the Greek Republic of kel reminded Turkish President mail. “Turkish and Greek Cyp- Cyprus as a member in 2004 fol- Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a riots should be able to talk and lowing a failed UN attempt at re- January 24 visit to Istanbul that a they should find a common solu- unification. decision about the customs union tion” to the gas dispute in the sea “The Greek Cypriots are ignor- would need the support of all EU around the island. ing the Turkish Cypriots, who members, including Greece and are the co-owners of the island Cyprus. Turkey has done little to win the Turkey has done little to of Cyprus,” Kaymakci said. “The Greek Cypriots — they don’t want support of Athens and Nicosia. win the support of Athens to have political equality with the Erdogan sent a warning to Tur- and Nicosia. Turkish Cypriots and they want to key’s neighbours. He said any go ahead unilaterally in their drill- search and drilling activities or a Blaming the EU. Faruk Kaymakci, Turkey’s deputy foreign Turkey, which began drilling for ing activities.” pipeline were “no longer legally minister in charge of EU affairs. (Courtesy of Faruk Kaymakci) oil and gas near Cyprus last year in The gas dispute developed into possible” without Libyan or Turk- a move that stoked tensions with an international crisis as Turkey ish approval. EU members Greece and Cyprus, complained it has been excluded Kristian Brakel, Turkey rep- talk with threats.” of cooperation in Cyprus as was announced a new drilling mission by its neighbours’ efforts to ex- resentative of the Heinrich Boll Kaymakci suggested the gas row the case [with] coal and steel to off the island in January. Cyprus ploit the resources and ship gas Foundation, which is associated could be turned into a win-win create the European Union,” he was divided in a Turkish invasion to European markets. Ankara ar- with the German Green Party, said situation. He drew a comparison said. in 1974 after a brief Greek-inspired gues that Turkey, as the country Ankara was trying to leverage its between the dispute and the Eu- Kaymakci called on Greek Cyp- coup. Turkey supports a breaka- with the longest coastline in the Libya policies and the Cyprus is- ropean Coal and Steel Commu- riots to accept a proposal by the way Turkish Cypriot state in the region, has a right to be involved sue to generate pressure on its ad- nity, an organisation was created Turkish Cypriot side to set up a north of the island. in gas projects. versaries in the gas dispute, with in the 1950s to bring Germany and joint energy committee to deal Cyprus’s internationally recog- In November, Turkey signed a the aim of being included in talks. France close together after World with the gas issue and suggest- nised government in the Greek maritime delimitation deal with Brakel said that in some aspects War II and that became the fore- ed that existing Turkish over- sector discovered offshore gas in Libya’s internationally recognised of the Cyprus issue Turkey had a runner of today’s European Un- land pipelines could be used to 2011 but has been at loggerheads Government of National Accord, a point “but it is, of course, a little ion. get Eastern Mediterranean gas with Turkey over maritime zones move that infuriated Greece and difficult to combine an offer to “Oil and gas can be a good basis to Europe.

Viewpoint Erdogan’s decisions are widening his circle of enemies

with all of Turkey’s near and far fly to their rescue and sends his oc- ing them into cannon fodder in legacy of the history between both neighbours. cupation army to block the Syrian Libya in the service of the Muslim countries,” said the statement. In The “zero problems” approach Army and its allies towards Sara- Brotherhood. other words, stay out of our busi- Majed Nehme turned into “a thousand and qib. The ensuing clash, resulting Isolated from the Arab world ness. one problems” approach involv- in the death of Turkish soldiers, and counting only on the Mus- This is not the first time Alge- ing everyone in the vicinity. The allows for a new redistribution of lim Brotherhood and its Qatari rian authorities called Erdogan f Turkey’s policy of “zero French newspaper L’Express cards, even a direct conflict with benefactor, Islamist Turkey is to order. In January 2012, former problems with neighbours,” ironised that Turkey’s doctrine of Russia. falling back on the Libyan front to Algerian Prime Minister Ahmed advocated in 2001 by Turk- “zero problems with neighbours” Impulsive as he may be, could exert influence in the region. At Ouyahia made acerbic comments ish President Recep Tayyip has turned into “zero neighbours Erdogan have the temerity to take the opposite, it is the axis of his about Erdogan on the same subject Erdogan’s former mentor, without problems.” this step, even though Ankara’s enemies that is widening by the when the Turkish president visited Ahmet Davutoglu, had in the Jean-Baptiste Le Moulec, a interests are mutually intertwined day. The latest country to alienate Algiers. Ifirst few years of the reign of the specialist of Turkish affairs at the with those of Moscow? was Algeria. Wanting to respond to the Justice and Development Party ap- Institute of Political Studies of Aix- The only thing left for Erdogan adoption, in 2011, by the French pealed to some, today it is a source en-Provence, said Davutoglu, who to do is posturing and blustering Unrepentant parliament of a law recognising of derision. at one time was the heir-designate to calm the anger of his terrorist During his meeting with Al- the Armenian genocide by the The policy was meant to enable of Erdogan, shared Erdogan’s proteges in Idlib but, rather than gerian President Abdelmadjid Ottoman Empire, Erdogan accused Turkey to become an international “simplistic and binary vision of the implement the commitments he Tebboune, Erdogan, pretending to France of having committed a power by consolidating its role as world, a world divided between made in Astana and Sochi more ignore the sensitivity of the pain- genocide in Algeria. a regional pole and, in particular, Muslims and non-Muslims.” than three years ago, Erdogan has ful history between Algeria and French President Emmanuel by establishing close relations with No need to include the long and the boldness to invoke the right of France, sought to instrumentalise Macron recognised, during his the Arab countries surrounding incongruous list of all those who pursuit provided for by the 1998 it by adding oil to the fire. presidential campaign in 2017, it. Almost two decades later, the have fallen into the trap of the Adana Agreement between the Erdogan said he had discussed that “colonisation is part of French results are disastrous. geopolitical scam promoted by two countries. with Tebboune France’s colonial history and it is a crime against Not only does Erdogan find Erdogan. But the Syrian official press and genocidal past in Algeria, go- humanity.” Erdogan, however, and himself in a barely hidden con- Syria, which, in its concern to agency SANA reminded Erdogan ing so far as to advance the imagi- all his predecessors categorically flict with Davutoglu but he is also balance its alliance with Shia Iran, that the Adana agreement “was nary figure of 5 million Algerians refused to recognise the massacres confronted by conflicts and wars had the misfortune of resorting aimed at fighting terrorism” and killed by France during 132 years Turkey committed against minori- to a partnership with “Sunni” called for securing the borders of colonisation. He conveniently ties. Turkey, discovered that behind the between the two countries. forgot the various atrocities perpe- Ouyahia said at the time that “no Turkish regime’s promoted image trated by the Ottoman Empire and one has the right to use the blood of a moderate state advocating an Erdogan and the “Syrianisation” later by the Young Turks against of Algerians as their stock-in- Erdogan is Islam reconciled with modernity, of Libya the Armenians, Assyrians, Kurds, trade.” He reminded Erdogan that hid the strategy of reconquering Erdogan is reaching for another Arabs and Greeks. Turkey “had voted at the United reaching for the Arab world using the Muslim supposedly easy “victory,” this His strategy backfired. He Nations against the Algerian ques- another Brotherhood and its derivative time in Tripolitania. He is engaged was curtly called to order by the tion from 1954 to 1962” during supposedly easy militant and terrorist groups. in a dangerous enterprise that Algerian Foreign Ministry, which the war of independence against Turkey plunged into a merciless could quickly spin out of control. immediately issued a statement France. “victory,” this time war in Syria by recruiting, equip- More than 2,500 pro-Turkish reframing the declarations of the “Turkey, which was a member of in Tripolitania. He ping and financing militant groups mercenaries seem to have been Turkish repeat offender. NATO during the Algerian war and and Islamist formations. dispatched by Erdogan from Syria The statement expressed Alge- which still is, had participated as a is instead engaged Today, the Syrian Army is only a to Libya, with the ultimate target ria’s surprise at a statement by Er- member of this alliance in provid- in a dangerous few kilometres from the capital of of bringing their number to 6,000. dogan “and attributed to President ing military means to France in its enterprise that Idlib province. To defuse the flood Some of the population in north- .” “Erdog- war in Algeria.” of criticism of his double game and ern Syria accuse Erdogan of double an’s statements do not contribute could quickly spin his alleged abandonment of the Is- treason: first by letting them down to Algeria’s and France’s efforts to Majed Nehme is a Syrian-French out of control. lamist rebels, Erdogan pretends to in Idlib and then by transform- resolve the issues pertaining to the journalist in Paris. February 9, 2020 17 Viewpoint Iran Can Turkey maintain its agressive foreign policy towards NATO and European Union?

ber that nationalist sentiment has very deep roots. That sentiment has been a feature of Turkey since Francis Ghilès Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, who prevented the dismembering of the Anatolian plateau between France, urkish President Recep Italy and Great Britain between the Tayyip Erdogan’s end of the first world war and the Justice and Develop- Treaty of Lausanne in 1923. ment Party has been in The national security class power since 2002, with taught in schools (1926-2012) by Erdogan having been military officers, not history teach- Tprime minister from 2003-14 and ers, and the countless nationalist president thereafter. ceremonies have made it easier for The large increase in prosperity, Erdogan to tilt public opinion in his the creation of a new middle class favour since 2002. and its consequences have been Turkey has deployed military accompanied by a much more as- forces in north-eastern Syria, sertive foreign policy than in the armed drones in northern Cyprus half-century after Turkey joined and Syrian Turkmen soldiers in NATO. Libya. Improved military equip- Long a docile member of NATO, ment, its first light aircraft carrier, Turkey’s policy now substitutes to be deployed this year or next, international cooperation with uni- allows Erdogan to project Turkish lateral moves and confrontational power further. statements. Turkey’s attempt to bully Tunis Changing the country’s missile into ceding it a military base in defence with the deployment of southern Tunisia, to help with its the Russian S-400 system and the war games in Libya, was reportedly possible purchase of Sukhoi air- met by a polite “no” in Tunisia and craft inevitably challenges NATO’s a very forceful refusal in Algeria, missile defence architecture. which, since the fall of Tunisian Erdogan’s threats about expelling President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali On the rocks. German Chancellor Angela Merkel (R), Turkish President President Recep Tayyip US forces from airbases at Incirlik in 2011, has acted as the ultimate Erdogan (2nd R), US President Donald Trump (2nd L) and French President Emmanuel and Kurecik, were they to be acted guarantor of Tunisian security and Macron (3rd R) at the NATO leaders summit in Watford, Britain, last December. (Reuters) upon, would raise a fundamental territorial integrity. question about Turkey’s commit- Erdogan may have failed there ment to the Western alliance. This but, as Turkey has become a gas pipeline was signed by Greece, tion in sensitive operations in — and the electors of nine out may fit well into Russia’s long-term major player in drone usage, he is Egypt, Israel and the Republic of Eastern Europe? Should the ad- of the ten largest Turkish cities, move to lure Turkey away from the prepared, like the United States Cyprus with Italian support, under vanced Kurecik radar be relocated who do not vote for Erdogan, who West after Ankara re-established and other countries, to engage in the aegis of the Eastern Mediterra- to another NATO country? What looks to the European Union as a its military position in Syria, sent targeted killing outside his own nean Gas Forum. This partnership of NATO’s aircraft with airborne value-based polity. Polls suggest mercenaries to Libya and has re- country. has the appearance of being-energy warning and control systems at the Erdogan’s Justice and Develop- engaged actively in the Middle East Turkey has asserted claims to related but, though it is energy-re- Konya Airbase? How far does NATO ment Party commands the vote of and Africa. extensive maritime jurisdiction in lated, that it has a military pur- think Russian President Vladimir one-third of the electorate, down Repositioning Turkey between the Aegean and Mediterranean seas pose, which is to exclude Turkey, Putin is playing Turkey off against from the dizzy heights of 46.6% East and West is perhaps less in the broader context of its Blue should not be overlooked. the West? in 2007, 49.9% in 2011 and 41% in surprising for those who remem- Homeland policy, which it hopes The signatories thought they The European Union knows it 2015. will be buttressed by the agree- could go ahead without Turkey but must work with Turkey on coun- Whatever happens after Erdogan ment it reached with the Libyan Ankara reaffirmed its interests by terterrorism but what happens if eventually leaves, Turkey will Government of National Accord, conducting research and drilling confidence between the parties, never return to its docile pre-2000 that extends both countries’ claims off Cyprus with Turkish vessels in vital in this field, deteriorates? The attitude towards NATO and the Whatever happens to the gas rich central Mediterra- contentious areas under military European Union’s help of $6 billion European Union. The challenge to after Erdogan nean continental shelf. protection and military drones. to Turkey more than four years ago both presented by a country that, The political message is clear — The European Union has only to resettle Syrian refugees worked despite its economic difficulties, eventually leaves, Turkey cannot be sidelined in the itself to blame because it should well despite denigration by Er- has grown more assertive is here Turkey will never Eastern Mediterranean. Nothing, never have admitted Cyprus as a dogan. The EU-Turkey Customs to stay. The response needs to be in particular mooted gas pipelines member before the partition of the Union is beneficial to both sides framed strategically, not just tacti- return to its docile between Egypt, Israel, Cyprus, country had been sorted out. but modernising it has been held cally. pre-2000 attitude Greece and eventually Western Eu- This year will be decisive. How hostage by the sharp deterioration towards NATO and rope, can go ahead without Turkey will NATO react to the deployment of the rule of law in the latter. Francis Ghilès is an associate being involved. of Russian S-400 missile systems? The European Union must be fellow at the Barcelona Centre for the European Union. An agreement on the EastMed Will it curtail Turkey’s participa- mindful of the millions of Turks International Affairs. Trump’s acquittal will further embolden Erdogan

events points to a possible declara- war of words over “the political leg of political Islam, beyond borders Ankara understands it can’t simply tion of the bankruptcy of Turkish of the movement,” which he implies while restructuring Ankara to make leave NATO and altogether de- foreign policy in its neighbourhood. remains at the top echelons of the his power permanent. anchor towards Russia and Asia. Yavuz Baydar Erdogan faces increasing chal- AKP. Given the weaknesses of Turkey’s There is some truth in that. In all lenges at home. Top figures of his Main opposition leader, Kemal domestic opposition, the latter is its muscle-flexing, Turkey seeks a Justice and Development Party Kilicdaroglu, seemed to inflict the easy part but, given the quag- more autonomous role, in between evelopments in Syria’s (AKP) displayed defiance to ac- further pain by revealing at a party mire in Idlib and the anger Erdogan the East and the West, and Wash- remaining combat zone countability over the failure to send meeting his intention to expose all caused in Moscow by shifting his ington may recalibrate its relations in Idlib do not appear to help following the powerful earth- the top names of the AKP linked low-key position vis-a-vis Russian with Ankara, treading a fine line, by be going the way Turk- quake in Elazıg province in January. to the outlawed Gulen Movement. President Vladimir Putin, as he sig- managing Erdogan. ish President Recep More salt was rubbed on the Erdogan, openly irritated, called on nals a new offensive into Syrian soil, Along with the Brexit decision Tayyip Erdogan desired wound when it was alleged that party officials to file lawsuits against it will be interesting to watch how signed and sealed, offering new Dthem to go. The Syrian government the death of 40 people as a result Basbug, something that was quickly Erdogan manages Turkish-Russian prospects for a privileged part- troops’ offensive shows signs of stra- of an avalanche in Van province followed through. Therefore, a new relations. nership between Turkey and the tegic determination to re-establish would not have happened if one battlefront was opened. Yet, his opponents at home and United Kingdom, the acquittal of full control of Syrian territory as one of Erdogan’s top advisers had not All this, seen from a higher abroad may be facing a new trap US President Donald Trump in his town after the other is taken over. insisted that her entourage take a altitude, means the spotlight is on of wishful thinking. Behind closed impeachment trial came as, to use The safety of the so-called Turkish country road to the remote Bahc- Turkey’s strongman tramping on doors, key EU officials voiced hope a favourite phrase of his, God’s gift military observation posts remains esaray town. the watershed, if not trying to keep that the Turkish-Russian equation to Erdogan. Trump is the sole link at stake, some of which are sur- In both cases AKP government his head above the water. Yet, he will worsen, meaning Erdogan would tying fragile Turkish-American rela- rounded by Syrian military units, officials shrugged and ignored all seems unmoved. Erdogan is keen on turn to the European Union again. tions and Erdogan feels he did the leaving them at the mercy of Russia. calls to clarify what went wrong. his double-edged strategy: to keep This may be a long-term realistic right thing by placing all his eggs in This, coupled with the inevitable There was also the revelation that advancing the cause to remain as viewpoint but it smells of cynicism. one basket. exodus of hundreds of thousands the Turkish Red Cross illegally the lead force for Ikhwanism, a form There is absolutely no prospect of With a Trump victory in the of local civilians piling up at the transferred major funds to an Islam- reviving Turkey’s accession process November elections on the horizon, Turkish-Syrian border, points to a ist foundation. into the European Union and no rea- the more emboldened the White diplomatic cul-de-sac for Ankara, All of this leads to the interpreta- son to expect Erdogan to turn 180 House will be, and so too will its as well as a rising humanitarian tions that Turkey is at the edge of degrees to embrace the Copenhagen friend in the Palace in Ankara. disaster. becoming ungovernable. Trump is the sole link Criteria. Thus, what the European Erdogan’s saga is not that shaken On the surface, Erdogan seems A battle seems to be looming tying fragile Turkish- Union expects is a transactional and stirred. In a world whose politi- deeply in trouble given the deadlock on the horizon, giving signals that American relations relationship limited to the control of cal scene is a fast-moving target, we over Ankara’s assertive moves in Erdogan’s late political allies, the the refugee situation and to trade, may all be facing more powerful Libya, which have infuriated France so-called Eurasianist flank in Ankara, and Erdogan feels he based on the premise of accepting surprises. above all others, and with Cyprus. which he sees as the enemy of my did the right thing by the oppressive status quo signed by The latter triggered countermoves enemy is my friend, Gulenists, have Erdogan and his team. Yavuz Baydar is a Turkish journalist in terms of sanctions from the Euro- surfaced as a new challenge. Former placing all his eggs in There are also assessments from and regular columnist for The Arab pean Union. All in all, the course of army chief Ilker Basbug unleashed a one basket. experts in the United States that Weekly. 18 February 9, 2020 Viewpoint East West ‘Abu Dajaj’ surges in Iowa

it will go through Malta,” he was quoted as telling an audience a few Oussama weeks ago. Romdhani Buttigieg’s father, Joseph, was a Maltese English professor who mi- grated to the United States in the merging suddenly as 1970s. His mother is a linguist. The a leading contender name is common in Malta where following the Iowa one of the early presidents was a Democratic Party cau- Buttigieg — Anton Buttigieg. cuses, Pete Buttigieg Pete Buttigieg, who studied at has found himself the Harvard and Oxford, speaks seven Efocus of new attention. languages, including Arabic, which Some of that attention has gone he learnt at the Bourguiba School to how to correctly pronounce the of Modern Languages in Tunis in White House hopeful’s last name. 2005. The school is one of the main The pronunciation exercise has be- foreign language schools in the come a trending subject in internet Arab world. It attracts profession- search engines and even a chal- als, students and researchers from lenge on TV talk shows. For many Europe, the United States and Asia. people, especially in the United In an interview with the New States, Buttigieg is an unusual last York Times Magazine last year, the name with no obvious pronuncia- former South Bend, Indiana, mayor tion cues. reminisced about his stay in Tuni- In a campaign stop, the 38-year- sia. “Tunisians are very friendly. old son of linguists tried to shed They’ll befriend you at the drop of light on the semantic roots of his the hat. They’re like Egyptians,” he family name: “’Tigieg’ means said. ‘chicken,’ so ‘Buttigieg’ probably He admitted that the friendliness means ‘owner of poultry’,” he said. of Tunisians made him initially In the Arabic language, from queasy. “At first you think there’s which much of Maltese language something shady going on. They’re All in the name. Pete Buttigieg speaks at a campaign stop in New Hampshire, February 6. (AP) is derived, Buttigieg’s last name trying to get something out of you would hence be: “Abu Dajaj.” because, if somebody comes up However, “bou-edgege” would to you on the street trying to get a If elected to office, Buttigieg 2014 military experience, as a ing other hopefuls, including be a more accurate transliteration cigarette or asking what time it is, would be the first US president US Navy intelligence officer in latecomer billionaire former mayor reflecting the phonetic inflection of next thing you know they’re invit- to speak Arabic. Familiarity with Afghanistan, as a campaign asset. of New York, Michael Bloomberg, the Tunisian Arabic dialect, which ing you to coffee and you’re like, foreign languages and with cross- During his tour of duty, he was in for the party’s nomination for has more directly influenced the What is this? Especially if you’re cultural differences between the charge of interpreting intercepted president, and then in November Maltese language. from New York, I’m sure there’d be West and the Arab world would data about money flows to terrorist going against the “loudmouth The presidential candidate once only more suspicion. ” be a quantum leap in US politics. groups. guy” currently at the White House. noted the proximity of his parents’ He admitted another misper- Some former presidents are said The vantage point of a war vet- Quite an uphill battle for the young place of origin to the northernmost ception about Tunisians as he to have not even possessed a eran, he said, could be pertinent candidate. country of Africa, Tunisia. “If you “couldn’t get anyone to talk about passport before entering the White “when decisions are made that Whether that happens or not, draw a line from Sicily to Tunisia, politics.” House. could send people into a conflict.” Americans will have time to get He presumed at the time that the Like most democratic hopefuls, He insists that “that perspective used to his last name. In the Arab authoritarian regime of then-Pres- Buttigieg advocates changing US is needed, especially when we’ve world, however, “Abu Dajaj” will Buttigieg learnt ident Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali “had foreign stances that would include got a president who thinks that definitely not be a tongue-twister. successfully created a generation reintegrating Iran’s international strength is the same as the chest- At worst, people will wonder what Arabic at the that didn’t care about politics.” nuclear deal and offering less thumping of the loudmouth guy at “the Lord of Poultry” is doing at Bourguiba School of Buttigieg eventually realised his support to Israel’s annexionist the end of the bar.” the White House. Modern Languages in conclusion “was evidently wrong policies. But electoral pledges may Until mid-July when the because it was Tunisia of all places take a different shape once the Democrats have their nominating Oussama Romdhani is Tunis, which he where the ‘Arab spring’ began six 2020 vote is done. convention, Buttigieg will have a Editor-in-Chief of attended in 2005. years after I was there.” For now, Buttigieg is using his lot of pitching to do before defeat- The Arab Weekly. Most US Democratic candidates are inexperienced but with different foreign policies than Trump

Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, who like his centre-left politics as have alarmed the Democratic Party well as African Americans because Gregory establishment. of his support for civil rights and Buttigieg is only 38 years old. his loyal service under US President Aftandilian Although he is very smart and is Barack Obama. However, Biden a military veteran (having served does not generate the enthusiastic as a US Navy intelligence officer in crowds of Sanders or Buttigieg. 26.2 ebruary has not been a Afghanistan), he may be too young Many Democrats fear that if good month for Demo- and inexperienced for the general Sanders or Buttigieg wins the Dem- crats seeking to chal- electorate in November. He does ocratic nomination, Trump could 26.1 lenge US President Don- not seem to have a strong follow- ride to victory. James Carville, a top ald Trump in November’s ing among African Americans, a aide to former President Bill Clinton election. key constituency of the Democratic and a Democratic strategist, stated FThe bungled vote count for the Party. Iowa is a very “white” state, on television on February 4 that, 20.2 Iowa caucus, where Democratic not representative of the country as if Sanders were the Democrats’ candidates have been competing a whole. nominee, the result would be a rep- for months, was a huge embar- Sanders, 78, is a self-declared lication of the poor showing of the rassment for the party. In addition, democratic socialist, who admires current, left-wing British Labour 13.7 Trump’s poll numbers inched up, and seeks to adopt many of the Party. In other words, he was warn- he gave a good State of the Union policies of European social demo- ing that, if the party nominates a speech and was acquitted in the US crats such as universal health care socialist, it would not beat Trump. Senate after being impeached in and free public college tuition paid It is possible for Biden to recover the US House of Representatives in for by higher taxes. He constantly after Iowa, as upcoming Democratic norms. What could hurt Trump the all said they would not pursue December. rails against the “1%” of Americans primaries after New Hampshire most in key industrial states that “foreign policy by tweet” as Trump The Iowa caucus debacle — as of representing billionaires and mil- include states with substantial mi- he narrowly won in 2016 is that his did on Syria. February 6, the true vote count was lionaires and wants them to pay nority populations, such as South promise of returning thousands of The Democrats can recover from not yet known, a full three days af- much more in taxes than they do. Carolina and Nevada, where he is manufacturing jobs to the United a bad week and it is a long way to ter the event — was bad for optics. Sanders has an energetic follow- expected to do well but only time States has not transpired. November but they must avoid ma- Republicans gleefully remarked ing among young people but it is will tell. On Middle East issues, all Demo- jor stumbles and choose someone that Americans should not trust a unclear if the country is ready to Although Trump is basking in cratic candidates are critical of who can appeal to centrists in addi- party that cannot even pull off a elect a socialist president. Trump his improved poll numbers (now Trump’s embrace of Saudi Arabia, tion to solidifying the party’s base. statewide election. has called him “crazy Bernie” and at 49% approval compared with Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Ne- They are also counting on Trump The two leading candidates applied the socialist label on the 44% for most of his presidency), tanyahu and his annexation plans reverting to form as a narcissist and from the preliminary vote tallies in party as a whole. a relatively strong economy and for the West Bank and belligerency continue to alienate many Ameri- Iowa, former South Bend, Indi- The Democrats’ “establishment” “vindication” from the Senate trial, towards Iran. cans. However, if the economy ana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and US candidate, former US Vice-Presi- he has many liabilities. Sanders, ironically, shares continues to grow — albeit at a slow dent Joe Biden, came in fourth in Many Americans, not just Demo- Trump’s inclination to pull US rate — and Trump desists from his Iowa, a lacklustre performance. His crats, see him as an undignified troops out of the Middle East rants, he could conceivably win a Sanders, ironically, main drawing card is that he has schoolyard bully, throwing insults (though Trump has backtracked second term. enormous government experi- at his opponents and dividing on these pledges) while Biden has shares Trump’s ence, is well-known and appeals Americans based on race said that the United States needs Gregory Aftandilian is a lecturer in inclination to pull US to people yearning for a “normal” and ethnicity. to keep special forces in some Arab the Pardee School of Global Studies troops out of the president. They see him as being too cosy states to help countries fight ter- at Boston University and a former Biden has a substantial following with dictators, too critical of NATO rorists. US State Department Middle East Middle East. nationwide among older Americans and flouting American laws and The Democratic candidates have analyst. February 9, 2020 19 News & Analysis East West UK moves to stop early release of terror offenders

The Arab Weekly staff The new law could go into effect one day before Mohammed Zahir Khan, a convicted terrorist who London disseminated Islamic State propa- ganda, is due for automatic release ollowing the second terrorist under the same procedures. Five attack on London streets by other terrorist offenders were to be a former offender released freed in March, officials said. F early from prison, the British “If the legislation is passed by government moved to implement February 27, we can prevent the emergency legislation to end the automatic release of any further early release of terror offenders. terrorist suspects who might pose British Justice Secretary Robert a threat to the public. This is emer- Buckland said new legislation, ex- gency legislation which we believe pected to be introduced by Febru- is vital for protecting the public,” a ary 27, would apply to current and statement from the UK government future offenders. said. The move came after Sudesh Am- Many predicted that the legisla- man, 20, was killed by police Febru- tion would face serious legal chal- ary 2, in Streatham, south London lenges from prisoners for possibly after stabbing two people in what breaching the European Conven- the London Metropolitan Police de- tion on Human Rights. It is en- scribed as an “Islamist-related ter- forced by the European Court of rorist attack.” Amman had been re- Human Rights, which is separate leased from prison one week earlier from the European Union and to after serving half his sentence for whose rules Britain remains bound terror offences. by despite leaving the European It was the second such attack by Union on January 31. a former terrorist offender released British Health and Social Care from prison in three months. Usman Secretary Matt Hancock told Sky Challenges ahead. British Justice Secretary Robert Buckland outside 10 Downing Street in London, Khan was killed November 29 after News the government was aware last October. (Reuters) stabbing two people to death on of the possibility of legal challenge London Bridge. but felt that it had no choice but to “We cannot have the situation, as move ahead with the emergency country free from the threat of ter- terror offenders would only be con- of extremist prisoners behind bars. we saw tragically in yesterday’s case, legislation. rorism,” he said. sidered for release once they served Amman’s mother said her son had where an offender — a known risk to “Often in government you get a The UK government has come at least two-thirds of their sentence become more radicalised after serv- innocent members of the public — is point where you have to balance under intense criticism for failing to and only with the explicit approval ing time at high-security prison Bel- released early by automatic process the rights of different people and, stop Amman’s automatic early re- of the Parole Board. marsh. of law without any oversight by the in this case, it’s weighing up the lease from prison despite pledging to The United Kingdom’s top coun- “With 3,000 or so subjects of inter- Parole Board,” Buckland told parlia- rights of an individual who’s com- take stronger action on early release terterrorism officer, Neil Basu, wel- est currently on our radar and many ment. mitted terrorist offences and his following the London Bridge attack. comed the move to stop automatic convicted terrorists soon due to be “’We will be doing everything we right to leave prison early against The new emergency legislation early release but stressed that the released from prison, we simply can- can to protect the public; that is our the rights of people to walk around would immediately halt the early government must take additional not watch all of them, all the time,” primary duty.” Streatham or anywhere in our release programme, ensuring that action to pursue de-radicalisation Basu warned.

Viewpoint What responsibility do terrorists’ families bear in children’s radicalisation?

young man lies dying on been released 10 days earlier from a a London street, leav- 40-month sentence for possessing ing a mother to mourn and distributing terrorist documents. Colin Randall the wasted, ultimately His mother claimed, implausibly, that worthless life of a son her “polite, kind, lovely boy” was not drawn into the death fully radicalised before being sent to cultA of the Islamic State. A father la- prison. ments the transformation of a bright, Azdyne Amimour, whose son Samy gentle boy into one of the monsters was among three attackers at the who slaughtered 90 people at a Paris Bataclan theatre as an Islamic State rock concert. (ISIS) gang killed 130 people at vari- From the British and French ous Parisian locations in November capitals to the Maghreb, the Indian 2015, said his family witnessed his subcontinent, the United States son’s gradual conversion to Salafism and beyond, the families of terror- and his growing links with extrem- ists killed or captured ask where ist elements but believed when he they went wrong as they voice their left France for Syria in 2013 that he disgust and sorrow. But the killing intended to engage in humanitarian goes on and, all too often, families work. are powerless to prevent it — even if Amimour, who has written a book they want to. with Georges Salines, the father of a Anyone who has spent time with Bataclan victim, came to realise his the relatives of actual or would-be son was involved in the conflict and Not family’s sins. Zoulika Aziri, the mother of the Merah brothers, (AP) killers can testify that disapproval is travelled to Syria to plead with him leaves the courthouse in Paris, France, October 2017. often heartfelt and sincere, highlight- to return. “He was like a zombie,” he ing the apparent failure of parental said. warm, communicative young man port service specialising in all forms efforts to identify radicalisation and An inability or unwillingness to de- into someone who could “spend a of extremism and terrorism, says provide meaningful influence or tect the descent of family members whole day slumped in an armchair,” there has been only limited research mere deterrence. into jihadist thoughts and actions is mostly silent but occasionally speak- into the role of families. Research There are alarming exceptions, not a new phenomenon. The only ing to justify wife-beating or denying that has been conducted, it says, pro- those who justify, support or mini- person convicted in the United States education to girls. duced ambivalent results, one study mise the actions of loved ones, a dis- in connection with the attacks of Donald Trump said ahead of his finding some parents “supported the turbing reality to which society has September 11, 2001, is a Frenchman election as US president that it was cause of their children, some spoke yet to find an effective response. of Moroccan origin, Zacarias Mous- necessary to “take out” not only ISIS out against it and others were simply After Mohammed Merah killed saoui, serving a life-in-prison with- militants but their families, whatever oblivious to their child’s susceptibil- seven people, including three Jewish out parole sentence for conspiracy to that meant. Even more cautious ob- i t y.” children and two off-duty Muslim commit acts of terrorism. servers cite cases of siblings involved Azdyne Amimour wonders French soldiers, before being shot Although he is often described in joint terrorist activity, with the whether his frequent absences from dead by police in south-western as the “20th hijacker,” Moussaoui Paris and Brussels attacks of 2015 and work helped to make his son “easy France in 2012, his mother and a was in custody for an immigration 2016, and the Charlie Hebdo killings, prey” for recruiters. sister applauded his crimes. One violation on September 11. His part in also in Paris, as striking examples. It will bring scant comfort to him or brother, Abdelkader, was jailed for 30 the plot, and the extent of his prior Aggressive methods, includ- those bereaved in the Paris massacre years as an accomplice, though an- knowledge, remain unclear although ing intrusive raids and protracted that a Dutch paper published by Ger- other, Abdelghani, rejected Islamist he is known to have attended an al- questioning for relatives and friends, many’s Journal for Deradicalisation violence and staged a 1,000km march Qaeda training camp in Afghanistan now commonly follow any terrorist concluded that even “outstanding Aggressive methods, through France against extremism. and wanted an active role in terrorist incident once a perpetrator’s identity parental qualities are no guarantee including intrusive In some cases where there is no operations. becomes known. Yet there are also against radicalisation.” evidence of family complicity, a Like so many parents, his moth- signs that few terrorists are deterred raids and protracted sense of denial persuades parents or er — who became a campaigner by the effect of their crimes on those Colin Randall, a journalist based questioning for siblings they have no need to worry, against extremism — was blind to they were close to since they are con- in London and France, was chief relatives and friends, at least until it is too late. his drift into terrorism and said he ditioned to regard ISIS or whichever reporter, executive news editor After Sudesh Amman, 20, stabbed was radicalised by Islamists he met militant group they join as their true and Paris bureau chief of the Daily now commonly follow two people February 2 in south while studying in London. His elder families. Telegraph and executive editor of the any terrorist incident. London, it was revealed he had brother watched him change from a SAFE, an independent British sup- National at its launch in 2008. 20 February 9, 2020 Economy

Viewpoint Briefs China struggles as Morocco’s coronavirus takes its unemployment rate slips to 9.2% toll on oil markets Morocco’s unemployment rate dropped last year to 9.2% from 9.5% in 2018, the country’s plan- consuming nation, which means ning agency said, with heavy job a sudden change in its energy losses in rural areas offset by gains consumption has far-reaching in towns and cities. Jareer Elass implications. It is estimated that While 85,000 jobs were shed in the coronavirus outbreak is causing the countryside in 2019, cities cre- Chinese oil demand — crude and re- ated 250,000. About one-quarter he spread of the corona- fined products — to drop more than Oil impact. A petrol station in Nantong, Jiangsu province, China. (Reuters) of people aged 15-24 were unem- virus is causing major 3 million barrels per day (bpd), the ployed, including 13.5% of young distress in oil markets, equivalent of 20% of the country’s Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, international organisations. Wang women and 15.7% of recent college sending crude prices oil consumption. and Russia to see what corrective said he cautioned the technocrats and university graduates. tumbling and forcing Chinese demand for jet fuel, pet- action it will support to stem the not to overestimate the effect of the The rate of underemployment Saudi Arabia and fellow rol and diesel is feeling the pinch rapid price collapse. coronavirus threat, adding: “There was stable at 9.2% in 2019. Infor- Toil producers to consider further from the cancellation of thousands Riyadh and Moscow have been is no need for panic.” mal labour abounds in Morocco, cutting output to stem the most of flights to and from China and the key decision makers in the The OPEC+ group could roll over making it hard to produce reliable recent price erosion. travel restrictions by air or road in collective of oil producers known existing production cuts through employment figures. Chinese oil demand has taken and out of the Asian country’s most as OPEC+ that collaborated over June, figuring the crisis is tempo- a solid hit and there are fears that affected regions. the past three years on elevating rary and it can weather the price (Reuters) global oil demand will weaken State Chinese refiner China prices and stabilising oil markets. In volatility. Saudi Arabia has been should the crisis escalate into a Petroleum and Chemical Corpora- December, the OPEC+ group agreed pushing for a short-term jolt to pandemic. tion is reducing throughput at its to deepen its output reductions by the markets with a minimum of a As China struggles to contain refineries by 600,000 bpd — 12% another 500,000 bpd to remove 500,000 bpd output reduction for Lebanon banks the deadly virus, the Asian giant’s — in February with cuts possibly ex- a total of 1.7 million bpd of crude the second quarter while float- economy is being battered with tending into March. China stopped from the markets through March. ing as much as a 1 million bpd cut tighten travel, tourism and manufacturing shipments of crude from Latin The price plunge is leading the to ensure price stability. Riyadh, sectors experiencing steep losses. American suppliers while slowing group to consider moving up its however, is facing resistance from withdrawal caps China’s annual growth rate could supplies from West African produc- scheduled March 5-6 ministerial Moscow and others both on the fall to less than 4% in the first quar- ers. meeting in Vienna. The difficul- immediate need for and scope of Major banks in Lebanon tight- ter even if the spread of the virus International crude prices experi- ties the oil producers face are not additional output restraint. ened banking controls in February, is swiftly controlled and annual enced their worst January collapse knowing how far geographically the Over the past three years, halving the amount of dollars de- growth for 2020 might not reach since 1991, with US benchmark coronavirus will spread and how Saudi Arabia has borne the largest positors are allowed to withdraw 5% — falling short of the Chinese crude West Texas Intermedi- long it will last, making demand production cuts from the OPEC+ every month, despite growing government’s target of 6%. ate (WTI) sliding 16% during the forecasts all the trickier. pacts and has routinely trimmed its public anger. China is the world’s largest oil month, closing at $51.56 a barrel on Referring to the effect the corona- output beyond its quota to com- Faced with a dollar liquidity importer and second-largest oil- January 31. British crude bench- virus has had on demand, Iranian pensate for other participants’ poor crunch, banks imposed informal mark Brent settled at $58.16 a barrel Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said compliance. controls on dollar withdrawals and that same day, a 12% drop over on February 3 that “The oil market Saudi oil production for January transfers abroad since September the month. The price for WTI was is under pressure and prices have stood at 9.74 million bpd, 400,000 amid widespread anti-government The OPEC+ group $49.61 on February 4, less than the dropped to under $60 a barrel and bpd lower than Riyadh’s quota. The protests and Lebanon’s worst eco- $50-per-barrel threshold consid- efforts must be made to balance it.” kingdom, which needs $80 a barrel nomic crisis in decades. could roll over ered a psychological redline for OPEC+ technocrats met in to balance its budget, can only hope Withdrawal limits differ from existing production many oil producers. Vienna to discuss the market crisis that the spread of the coronavirus bank to bank but have generally China has cut crude deliveries to provide delegations with their is quickly contained and that the been capped at around $1,000 a cuts through June, from Saudi Arabia, its largest sup- recommendations for moving hardest hit to China’s oil demand month and most transfers abroad figuring the crisis is plier, for March. Riyadh supplied forward, including the need for an has already been felt. have been halted. temporary and it can China with 1.67 million bpd of earlier ministerial gathering. The crude in 2019, followed by Russia at sessions included a presentation Jareer Elass reports from (Agence France-Presse) weather the price 1.55 million bpd. by Wang Qun, China’s ambassador Washington on energy issues for volatility. Oil markets are looking to Saudi to the United Nations, and other The Arab Weekly. Bumper crop of amber rice to reduce Iraq’s grain imports

Special Correspondent The cultivation of amber rice, The Iraqi agricultural sector aging local farmers to cultivate markets, revealing inefficiency of famous for its unique aroma and benefited from a shift in govern- them. official oversight and widespread taste, is concentrated in the gov- ment policies in recent years. Iraqi Minister of Agriculture smuggling. Baghdad ernorates of Najaf and Qadisiyyah. Authorities expanded subsidies Saleh al-Hassani said the import Despite the current abundance Large numbers of farmers, some to farmers and adopted the cul- ban was to “preserve the local of water, Baghdad has been ne- he Iraqi Ministry of Ag- of whom grow only amber rice, tivation strategic seeds, such as products and to encourage farm- gotiating with Turkish officials riculture said the state- depend on the crop. Its seedlings wheat, barley and rice, which con- ers and livestock breeders to con- about the amount of water flow- run Grain Board of Iraq need to be immersed with huge tributed to a significant improve- tinue production.” ing to the Tigris and Euphrates T completed the purchase quantities of water to grow. ment in product quality. He pointed out other positives, Rivers. Both rivers have their of about 306,000 tonnes of the The scarcity of water in recent Because of those policies, Iraq such as “providing employment sources in Turkey, which reduced world-renowned local variety of years exacerbated problems for achieved self-sufficiency in many opportunities and activating the Iraq’s share of the rivers’ flow by amber rice, after one of the best farmers. Authorities imposed a crops, such as wheat, for the first role of the private sector in in- constructing dams. growing seasons in decades. significant reduction — up to 95% time in decades. creasing investment and estab- Observers said the tonnage pur- in some areas — in rice cultiva- In collaboration with other lishing agricultural investment chased represents only part of the tion areas, which forced many rice government departments and projects to support the national Despite the increase in the crop because farmers often with- farmers to abandon their lands. agencies, the Agriculture Min- economy.” rice harvest, production hold much of the harvest of amber However, heavy rains have filled istry prohibited the import of The list of crops banned from remains far below local rice, which is very popular across dam reservoirs and allowed more than a dozen agricultural import includes tomatoes, cu- market demand of 1.3 the region. the authorities to products, a move that drove up cumbers, eggplant, carrots, yel- million tonnes. A statement from the Agriculture lift restrictions. the prices of low corn, lettuce, garlic, melons, Ministry said the rice harvest was Farmers responded those products, watermelon, pepper and dates, in Iran and Turkey are pressuring far greater than previous seasons. by planting encour- addition to banning the im- Iraqi officials to lift the ban on Last September, the Agriculture twice as much port of eggs, chicken agricultural product importation, Ministry said it expected rice pro- area with and fish. sources said. Campaigns in Iraq to duction to its highest level in 20 rice. Observers said boycott imported products have years because of the heavy rains agricultural goods contributed to the decline of the that allowed the cultivation of were still being goods, especially from Iran, in the larger areas. The Iraqi government imported to Iraqi Iraqi markets. had previously imposed restric- The boycott prompted Turkish tions on rice cultivation, which and Iranian companies to set up needs large amounts of water to factories in Iraq to compensate grow, in recent years because of a for the decline in exports. drought. The Iraqi Agriculture Ministry It is expected that this season’s promoted policies that had been rice crop, plus record crops of followed during the economic wheat and barley last season, will embargo of Iraq in the 1990s that lead to an unprecedented reduc- included buying strategic crops at tion in grain imports, officials said. high prices to encourage farmers Baghdad already announced it to cultivate wider areas. achieved self-sufficiency in wheat. The ministry has provided oth- Despite the increase in the rice er incentives to farmers, such as harvest, production remains far offering seeds at subsidised pric- below local market demand of 1.3 es, contributing to pest control million tonnes, because a large and facilitating access to loans part of the high-cost amber rice is to purchase agricultural equip- destined for export. Unique variety. An Iraqi farmer plants amber rice in the Mishkhab region, central Iraq. (AFP) ment. February 9, 2020 21 Economy Libya’s banking woes escalate with conflict

Riadh Bouazza Ashour said cash transfers to and from Libya had also been affected, a situation also mentioned by Liby- Tunis ans residing in Tunisia. There had been signs of the wors- anks in Libya have been ening crisis for years. In September foundering for years under 2018, the Central Bank of Tripoli im- the weight of worsening posed severe restrictions on the sale B chaos and UN Envoy Ghas- of hard currency for personal, ther- san Salame warned of an economic apeutic and educational purposes. collapse because of increasing debts The bank set a ceiling of 14,000 and the banking system deficit. Libyan dinars (about $10,000) per Salame told the UN Security individual per year, generally con- Council that “the dispersion of the sidered insufficient to meet the cost institutions and the inability to en- of living in some countries to which act a unified economic policy exac- Libyans had fled. erbate existing challenges and cre- The Union of Arab Banks Union ate new challenges.” said the Libyan banking system in- He said Libyan banks are finding cludes 16 local banks, including the it increasingly difficult to operate Libyan Foreign Bank and Al-Wahda under the supervision of two com- Bank; 14 Arab banks, including the peting central banks and some face Bahrain Arab Banking Corporation an interruption of cash supplies. and the Egyptian Piraeus Bank; and Libya has been divided since 2014 eight foreign banks, notably the between two competing govern- British HSBC. ments and military alliances, one Because of the unsettled situa- in the east and the other in Tripoli. tion in Libya, it is difficult to de- This has affected major institutions, termine the volume of the annual such as the Central Bank of Libya transactions for the banks. There and the National Oil Corporation. are no official data about movement of funds in the banks or about their The Libyan public debt profits. Suleiman al-Shehoumi, a Libyan exceeded 100 billion financial expert in London, recently dinars ($71.4 billion), posted on Facebook that “the eco- which is more than Confidence crisis. People sign up at a bank for a $500 annual allowance that provides a lifeline for nomic situation (in Libya) is getting many Libyan families struggling to make ends meet in Tripoli. (Reuters) annual GDP. more complicated by the day in the absence of a clear will to impose a The banking sector is going comprehensive solution instead of to print more paper money by both ed out that the political turmoil in The World Bank has revealed through a confidence crisis as Liby- making arrangements that are driv- Libyan governments without regu- Libya was reflected in competition a 3-year plan to save the Libyan an citizens become weary of unmet ing the economy under.” lation or coordination and with- between both governments to re- economy and overcome obstacles promises of better services and so- He said the banking situation out keeping accurate records of duce fees and taxes and that had of divisions between East and West lutions for the liquidity crisis. in Libya was “similar to the situa- amounts dispensed. narrowed the government’s rev- and the decline in oil exports. The The Libyan House of Representa- tion in Lebanon in the speed with Official estimates indicate that enue base. That led to the state’s strategy focuses on restoring basic tives in Tobruk accused Central which it is deteriorating and being the Libyan public debt exceeded almost complete dependence on oil services, enhancing capabilities of Bank Governor Sadiq al-Kabir and exposed because of the economy’s 100 billion dinars ($71.4 billion), exports, which suffer from frequent sovereign institutions in Tripoli to National Oil Corporation Chairman total dependence on the dollar.” which is more than annual GDP. An- interruptions. manage public funds and restruc- Mustafa Sanallah of unilaterally al- He pointed out that, because the alysts said they expect the upturn In addition to the fluctuations turing the financial system. locating and disposing of oil reve- monetary situation is “separated to continue. in oil production and the fall in oil It includes a plan to start recon- nues without consulting legislators. from the economic situation,” there The Central Bank in Tripoli has prices since 2014, the banking sec- struction of devastated areas, de- Libyan sources said many com- were divisions in the Central Bank had to withdraw from its cash re- tor situation was exacerbated by velop the private sector and support mercial banks, especially in eastern management and that caused “se- serves, which have fallen rapidly, the widening gap between the offi- its partnerships with the public sec- Libya, are no longer able to fulfil rious damage” to the Libyan mon- to cover import bills, pay salaries cial exchange rate for the dinar and tor, in addition to providing finan- their obligations. etary system. and maintain subsidies. Figures in- rates on the black market. cial support for small and medium- “The banking crisis due to the Because the interbank clearing dicate that nearly $80 billion of the The prices of foreign currencies sized enterprises. lack of liquidity has affected most system, under the control of the country’s reserves of hard currency vary widely by region depending on “We want regular electricity sup- Libyan families and this reality is Central Bank, has been suspended, had been used in recent years. Be- political and security conditions. In plies and quality services in educa- complicating people’s lives,” said there was a decrease in the balances fore the crisis, Libya had $130 bil- Tripoli, for example, the US dollar is tion and health care and to acceler- Sami Ashour, a Libyan living in Ger- of various banks with the Central lion in reserves. exchanged at the rate of about 4.38 ate the recovery of the economy by many, referring to the increased dif- Bank in Tripoli, which affected their Both Libyan governments have dinars, while it is around 5 dinars in strengthening the management of ficulty for people and businesses ability to meet requests for dollars. tried to placate their grass-roots other regions. public funds, as well as develop- to obtain cash from banks. Crowds Shehoumi said the chaos threat- bases by increasing salaries and Ports and oil fields in Libya are ing the financial sector,” said Marie gather daily in front of banks in ened to restrict foreign exchange government support, both known exposed to attacks and uncon- Francoise, director of the Bank for most parts of the country and some- operations at some banks at the allocations and hidden ones. trolled protests to pressure on au- the Middle East and North Africa. times people wait weeks before expense of the others. He said the World financial institutions and thorities in Tripoli, which decreases they’re allowed to withdraw funds. situation was worsened by the race international rating agencies point- production. Riadh Bouazza is a Tunisian writer. Moroccan banks face challenges from rash of bad loans

The Arab Weekly staff try’s financial system because of the loan crisis. There are 24 banking institu- Rabat tions in Morocco, five of which are cooperative banks operating in ac- orocco’s central bank cordance with Islamic law said the number of un- Official data indicate that bank paid loans in the coun- loans in Morocco increased 10.9% M try had doubled over in the past year to $100 billion. the past decade, despite steady Jouahri said the level of loans growth in giving out loans the past granted in 2019 was twice that re- five years. corded in 2014 and was about 88% Bank Al Maghrib Governor Ab- of GDP. dellatif Jouahri said unpaid loans What the figures reflect is the since 2009 totalled 70 billion dir- economic difficulty Moroccan hams ($7.3 billion), about 7.7% of families face despite the govern- total loans, Morocco’s official news ment reforms to boost growth. agency MAP reported. The Moroccan High Commis- sion for Planning said in January that Moroccan families were gen- Bumpy ride. A general view of the Central Bank of Morocco in Rabat. (Reuters) Bank loans in Morocco erally dissatisfied with economic increased 10.9% in the conditions, the cost of living and past year to $100 billion. the quality of public services. Sev- that reduces the inequalities. Com- socially divided countries in North economy will achieve 3.6% growth eral Moroccan and foreign reports mittee members have met with po- Africa. It said about 1.6 million in 2021 and 3.8% over the year af- The process of collecting unpaid warned last year of the growing litical parties and unions to gather people, out of a population of 35 ter. loans in Morocco is difficult be- social inequalities, especially for views on a new development million, suffer from poverty. However, the drought in North cause current laws do not provide young people. model, which is expected to be an- Rabat expects a growth rate of Africa may have repercussions for a quick solution to the problem. Moroccan King Mohammed VI in nounced in June. 3.5% in 2020, a significant increase sectors such as agriculture, while Jouahri said authorities needed to December appointed a committee A report by Oxfam last year over the 2.7% in 2019. The World the growth of exports may help to allocate $5.7 billion to the coun- to formulate a development model ranked Morocco among the most Bank estimated that Morocco’s achieve a relative balance. 22 February 9, 2020 Society Education Saudi educational reform progressing but not without resistance

Zaki al-Soudeir sity of our world and deal with it according to a humanitarian, Islamic and moderate approach, Riyadh a generation that does not reject renewal, does not rely on preju- audi Minister of Educa- dice, does not try others but, tion Hamad al-Sheikh said rather, coexists with them, show- there are many important ing great tolerance.” S files that need the minis- In the context of the rapid try’s attention and that he had changes Saudi Arabia is seeing at to prioritise them. He said he political, social and cultural lev- wished for a magic wand to im- els, former Minister of Education mediately change education in Ahmed al-Issa said during the In- the kingdom but change requires ternational Conference on Edu- time and patient planning. cation Reform in 2018 that the Sheikh announced that Saudi ministry had prepared syllabi for A distinctive learning experience. A researcher at the New York University Abu Dhabi. (NYU Abu Dhabi) Arabia would soon undergo im- a course in critical philosophical portant educational reforms, in thinking and another on the prin- accordance with Vision 2030, the ciples of law to be introduced at plan to reduce Saudi Arabia’s de- the level of secondary education. pendence on oil income and di- versify its economy. Widad Mohamed Ali, a female Sheikh indicated that the min- Abu Dhabi students secondary school teacher istry’s development project con- siders size, goals, foundations “The curricula are changing and priorities. There are 6 million in a positive way but this students in Saudi pre-university change is slow to come.” discover diplomacy general education, 1 million stu- dents at university and 170,000 in technical and vocational edu- However, Sheikh said in a state- cation. ment in January there will be no The ministry has 47 directo- independent courses of philoso- in the digital age rates and 422 education offices to phy and law introduced but rath- oversee 300,000 schools, 27 pub- er philosophical and legal prin- lic universities, 15 private uni- ciples would be included among Caline Malek politics and diplomatic craft at the other countries and talk to other versities, 46 private colleges, 70 other educational curricula. Emirates Diplomatic Academy in young people about where they technical colleges, 96 technical Saudi author Abdullah Mu- Abu Dhabi. live? This facility is now available institutes and a group of private hammad Dhia said: “The recent Abu Dhabi Students offered innovative ide- but I don’t know of schools using training institutes. Sheikh said minister’s statement regarding as, such as using blockchain as an it. Or find out how people are try- the ministry employs 516,000 not singling out syllabi for phi- tudents at New York Uni- anti-corruption tool, harnessing ing to overcome problems in other elementary and secondary losophy and critical thinking was versity Abu Dhabi have em- artificial intelligence and virtual countries and perhaps share sug- school teachers, 70,000 univer- disappointing since such a step barked on local and global reality to educate refugees and gestions.” sity teachers, 12,000 trainers and (introducing philosophy in edu- S academic trips for a distinc- finding ways to map water short- She said this would create more 300,000 administrative staff. cation) was necessary and urgent; tive learning experience known as ages in Jordan and engineer shel- “togetherness” instead of the in- Many in the educational sec- philosophy cannot be marginally the January Term. ter for refugee camps. “They also sularity and “ignorance” found tor wonder how real the educa- attached to another syllabus and This year, they learnt how to came up with an app to make phil- in younger students. “It takes a tion reform is going to be. Widad handed over to teachers who are thrive in a century during which anthropic giving easier,” he added. more highly connected world, Mohamed Ali, a secondary school unqualified to teach it.” technology is rapidly transform- “There are 12 students from… however,” she added. “Not all stu- teacher, said: “The curricula are Intellectuals and academics ing how countries and individuals across NYU’s global network. They dents have technology. It doesn’t changing in a positive way but alike had welcomed having both interact and power functions. learnt global competence — the help when their parents insist on this change is slow to come and the Ministry of Education and Enrolled in “Surviving the 21st cultural and social skills that help texts.” not commensurate with the rapid the Ministry of Culture cooper- Century: Power and Statecraft them adapt to different societies Natasha Ridge, executive direc- changes on the ground. Despite ate in introducing music and art in the Digital Age,” students re- and prepare for a rapidly changing tor at the Sheikh Saud bin Saqr al- Minister Sheikh’s promises of courses into school curricula and viewed new forms of power, how world of work,” Fletcher said. Qasimi Foundation for Policy Re- coming changes, the educational to create specialised academies to build brand and influence, the search in Ras Al Khaimah, said the field has not changed much.” for teaching all sorts of art forms. geopolitical challenges ahead and course is timely because it uses A study titled “Coexistence The step, however, was fraught how to maximise the opportuni- Students offered innovative interdisciplinary approaches that in Saudi Society,” conducted by with doubts about its feasibil- ties of technology to manage the ideas, such as using add value to students’ lives and the Department of Studies and ity. There were questions about threats it creates. They learnt from blockchain as an anti- help them think more critically Research at the King Abdulaziz whether both ministries should leaders in various fields and de- corruption tool, harnessing about the potential and threats of Centre for National Dialogue, hasten the introduction of these signed solutions to the challenges artificial intelligence and technology. stated that Saudis were willing to programmes or proceed gradu- of the Digital Age. “It is very important for today’s coexist amid sectarian diversity ally, especially when the curricu- “The objective was to give the virtual reality to educate students to think about power as well as harmonise in economic lum contains religious education class a set of 21st-century survival refugees and finding ways to from multiple perspectives and and social dealings. courses that teach fatwas pro- skills, including critical thinking, map water shortages. how considerable influence can hibiting playing and listening to curiosity, courage and creativity,” be wielded by people with strong music. said Thomas Fletcher, a visiting Educational experts said simi- brands but not necessarily a lot There are 6 million Saudi Minister of Culture assistant professor of practice at lar courses are essential. “We are of knowledge or depth,” she ex- students in Saudi Prince Badr bin Abdullah bin New York University Abu Dhabi, living in a world where closer co- plained. pre-university general Farhan, posting on Twitter, said: who led the course. operation is definitely required “In the UAE and Jordan, we tend education, 1 million “Music, theatre and arts are in- “We develop these by studying and now more possible than ever to be passive consumers of technol- students at university and cluded in our education and the history, politics and technology. before,” said Judith Finnemore, ogy and of the social media feeds 170,000 in technical and best is still to come.” The class was put together after an education consultant in the we follow without always thinking vocational education. The minister’s tweet was tan- my previous students hacked my United Arab Emirates. “However, about larger implications and agen- tamount to inaugurating the of- curriculum to identify what would there is a tendency to ringfence das. It is vital that students in the The study confirmed the fail- ficial return of arts, culture and be most useful to learn.” information and retrench rather region are able to think critically ure of efforts by the religious music to Saudi schools and uni- Taking place in the United Arab than be outward looking.” about what they are watching and revivalist movement to inject in versities. Emirates and Jordan, the 3-week She said the future is reliant on reading, the mediums that enable educational curricula notions of The Ministry of Education in- course is considered important in sharing and cooperation, whether this and the larger geopolitical con- exclusion of and hatred for the troduced a programme called a world where too many students it is expertise or addressing pov- text beyond the region.” different other. That is why the The Portal to the Future to pro- learn the “wrong things” in the erty. She spoke of such topics as be- Ministry of Education has worked mote and develop online educa- wrong way, said Fletcher, author “Young people see themselves ing paramount, adding significant to accelerate changes in curricula tion. The programme is designed of “The Naked Diplomat.” as global citizens — Greta (Thun- value to the students’ under- by screening out content that to create an educational environ- He said the class included a visit berg) being one example,” she standing of the world. “We need preaches hatred for anything dif- ment based on modern technolo- to Jordan to meet UN Secretary- noted. “They have great ideas and a lot more critical analysis of the ferent from the traditional Saudi gies to enhance the educational General Antonio Guterres, the are more willing to share. It is the benefits and pitfalls of technology, social fabric and replacing it with experience and develop teacher royal family, NGOs, refugees, am- older people who have more of a [artificial intelligence] and others, content characterised by human- capacities. It is hoped the portal bassadors and to see Jerash and ‘them and us’ attitude.” rather than assume they are some- istic and moderate Islamic no- will shift to a digitally based edu- Petra. Rather than in-person meetings, how neutral or value free,” Ridge tions. cational environment. “I gave a lecture on civilisations she said the digital world allows added. Sheikh acknowledged there The portal is being introduced in the amphitheatre in Jerash and, for virtual gatherings that could “In higher education, we need was resistance to change. Educa- gradually. The first phase of the for their final assignment, they be more efficient. “I don’t know to be educating students to be tional researcher Mohamed Asiri programme began in 2017-18 with had to pitch ideas for how to ap- why the UN requires every coun- able to challenge the status quo said that “despite some resist- the participation of 310 schools in ply new technology to global chal- try to meet in New York,” she said. whether it is in science, technol- ance to change, the experience seven regions. During the second lenges,” he said. “It could be a virtual meeting.” ogy or education, and be able to on the ground in developing cur- phase (2018-19), 1,893 schools in Students met with Emirati and She stressed that the business of come up with new solutions and ricula confirms students’ willing- 16 regions were involved. The international speakers as the international sharing and working ways of thinking about existing ness to interact with the other programme is to be generalised course focused on a balance be- together needs to be part of edu- issues — without this, the region and deal with different ideas.” to all elementary and secondary tween knowledge, skills and char- cation at all levels. will continue to rely too heavily “The goal of quickly reforming schools over the course of this acter. “The focus was learning “If I am a student in school stud- on foreign expertise.” and developing the curriculum,” year, opening new horizons to through simulations, role plays ying about a country, I look in a said Asiri, “is to create a gen- education in Saudi Arabia. and interaction,” said Fletcher, book,” Finnemore said. “Why not Caline Malek is an Arab Weekly eration of patriotic and tolerant who also teaches a course on geo- have virtual links with schools in contributor in Abu Dhabi. Saudis who appreciate the diver- Zaki al-Soudeir is a Saudi writer. February 9, 2020 23 Society Women Turkish women’s rights activists concerned about proposed ‘amnesty for child abusers’

Thomas Seibert the victim is less than 15 years, if there is no criminal complaint and if the offender and the victim are mar- Istanbul ried. Turkey’s governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has omen’s rights activists roots in political Islam, withdrew a in Turkey said they are similar bill in 2016 because of pro- concerned that an am- tests. A group of 197 women’s rights W nesty planned by the organisations called on the govern- government could result in impunity ment to cancel the new draft as well. for child abusers. The AKP said the bill could pro- “This bill will not become law and tect thousands of families in socially it must not become law,” said Selin conservative sectors of society from Nakipoglu, a lawyer and activist. harm. The draft proposal is part of a Many conservative families marry wide-ranging amnesty plan that off their daughters before they reach could free tens of thousands of pris- the legal age of 18 in religious cere- oners by reducing mandatory prison monies called “imam weddings” but times for a range of crimes and wid- thousands of husbands end up in ening the use of alternative criminal prison when underage wives are reg- justice methods such as house arrest istered in hospitals when they give and probation. birth, triggering criminal charges The amnesty has been postponed by prosecutors. Reports said 4,000 several times and Turkish Justice families could be affected. The law Minister Abdulhamit Gul said the would be a one-off amnesty so sex- final version of the bill would be- ual intercourse following an “imam come clear only after consultations wedding” would count as a crime between political parties in parlia- after a yet to be determined cut-off ment. Women’s rights activists said date. Ongoing struggle. Women perform the Chilean anti-rape song during a protest against gender they expect the package to be tabled Women’s rights groups rejected violence in Istanbul, last December. (Reuters) in parliament this month. There is the government’s argument that an no official timetable by the govern- exception from prosecution in such ment. cases is beneficial for young moth- “This amnesty project is part of the Nakipoglu said her sources told the amnesty package, have a com- ers because many are left penniless same policies that also include child her that the amnesty draft had been fortable majority of seats in parlia- when their husbands are in prison. marriage and an advice to couples to tabled after pressure by Islamic ment. The amnesty draft had Activists said the bill would legalise have many children,” she said. groups close to the AKP. Repeated delays in getting the been tabled after pressure child abuse if it became law. Nakipoglu agreed. “This policy Two years ago, Turkey’s state di- package to parliament could be a by Islamic groups close to Murat Emir, an opposition law- means underpinning the system of rectorate for religious affairs, which sign that the government side is not the AKP. maker in Ankara, said last year that male dominance with religious rules oversees the practice of Islam in the convinced that society would accept teenage pregnancies in Turkey and taking a stance against gender country and administers its more the amnesty proposals, however. Convicted sex offenders, drug were much more widespread than equality,” she said by telephone. than 80,000 mosques, caused an Gulbahar pointed to a recent stir dealers and members or organised thought. Citing figures from Tur- Turkish President Recep Tayyip uproar with a statement on its web- caused by a religiously conservative crime gangs, as well as people sen- key’s statistics office, he said 84,500 Erdogan regularly calls on Turk- site saying that Islam allowed 9-year- professor at Istanbul’s Yildiz Univer- tenced under Turkey’s controversial girls under 18 had given birth since ish families to have at least three old girls to be married. The post was sity, Bedri Gencer. In a tweet, Gencer anti-terror laws, would be excluded 2014. He said in parts of eastern and children to save the country from taken down after protests and the argued that a massive earthquake in from the amnesty, the government south-eastern Turkey, among the going the same way as aging West- directorate published a sermon con- eastern Turkey that killed 41 people said. However, a planned exception poorest and most conservative re- ern societies. In a recent speech, he demning child marriages. in December was caused by Turkey’s for certain sexual offences would gions of the country, girls as young complained that the average age of Women rights groups said they decision to ban underage marriages amount to an “amnesty for rapists,” as 11 years were married off. people getting married in Turkey is are determined to fight the new pro- even though the unions were al- Hulya Gulbahar, a women’s rights Gulbahar said the draft proposal rising and that many Turks never get posal. lowed by God. Following protests activist said by telephone. was not an isolated initiative but an married at all. Official figures indi- “It will not be easy to stop it,” Gul- against the statement, Yildiz Uni- The proposal says a sexual offend- element of a broader effort by the cated that the median age in Turkey bahar said. The AKP and its right- versity distanced itself from Gencer, er could be released from prison if AKP to implement ultra-conserva- had risen from 28 years in 2007 to wing partner, the Nationalist Move- saying the tweet had been “unaccep- the age difference between him and tive social policies. more than 32 years in 2019. ment Party, a driving force behind table.” Marriage of female minors in Morocco triggers pushback

Mohamed al-Alawi constitution and of complying with stitution. As Saddas pointed out, in- international agreements ratified by dicating that there are people whose Morocco. economic conditions are acceptable Rabat Only 18% of all requests put to but they still marry off their daugh- courts demanding authorisations to ters at an early age. orocco’s Family Code sets marry underage females were turned “It is sad for Morocco to waste the minimum age for mar- down by the judges. Nearly all — its women’s potential, by not hav- riage at 18 and Article 20 99.46% — of the requests were made ing them complete their studies and M leaves decisions to judges by females. The phenomenon is typi- contribute to the country’s develop- whether to issue waivers for the mar- cally rural with 21,000 — more than ment,” Saddas said. riage of a minor. However, such waiv- two-thirds of the total — requests Benabdelkader said it was notice- ers can no longer be described as ex- were made in rural areas. able that 98% of the requests for au- In need for protection. A Moroccan girl attends a Berber festival in ceptions. In 2018, more than 32,000 Saddas said that in rural areas, it is thorisation were submitted by unem- the western desert town of Tan-Tan. (AFP) requests for girls under 18 to marry customary to believe that a girl who ployed petitioners. He said requests were presented to the courts. reaches a certain age unmarried will lessened from 2015-18 but added: Moroccan Justice Minister Moham- never get married. This why some “There are still problems associated Although many laws, such as the bottom. Saddas said: “The place of a ed Benabdelkader told the Moroccan parents marry off their daughters at with the Family Code itself, its im- Family Code, are fair to women, they female minor is in school and it is up House of Representatives it was time the age of 12. “This is also why I said plementation and also the cultural contain shortcomings that women suf- to the state, with its various institu- to eliminate the exceptions. that we must begin raising aware- aspect, which requires horizontal in- fer from, such as divorce and under- tions, to sensitise people, especially in Marrying minors in Morocco is un- ness of the problem and criminalise tervention from all (state) sectors.” age marriage. Mohamed Abdenna- rural areas, that marrying off minors der the control of the Family Code, for the marriage of minors because it is a Prevailing outdated social norms baoui, public prosecutor at the Court has serious psychological, health, so- their protection against being exploit- form of paedophilia,” Saddas said. and customs have triumphed over of Cassation and head of the Public cial and economic dimensions. ed. Only a court judge has the power legislation and efforts to ban under- Prosecution, told the audience at a “The state must also address the to allow the marriage of a minor and age marriages in Morocco. This type study day in Marrakech about under- problem of human trafficking net- this supposedly in very exceptional Of all requests put to of marriage is considered a lifeline for age marriage that the rise in requests works that exploit girls and their cases. courts demanding a secure future for rural girls, regard- for permissions to marry minors was families who suffer from a fragile eco- Member of the Political Bureau authorisation to marry less of it limiting their chances to get a source of concern. nomic situation and subject them to of the Socialist Union of Popular underage females, only an education and learn skills to be Abdennabaoui said the judge’s sexual exploitation.” Forces Fatima Belmouden pointed 18% were turned down by able to join the country’s labour force. conscience should have the final say Abdennabaoui said the Presidency out that the “exception” clause was judges. He said that when the Family Code in cases pertaining to children affairs of the Public Prosecution is prepar- used by those opposing changes in made allowances for the judge to and underage marriages. This indi- ing a study on the subject, which is the social conditions of women to “It should be borne in mind that gauge the existence of exceptional cates a gap between the country’s expected to shed light on problems produce a catastrophic situation. what pushes parents to marry off circumstances, it referred to situa- ambitions to protect children from that hinder limiting underage mar- She said society must move from de- their girls at a young age is economic tions in which there was an obvious having their rights violated through riages, especially at the level of judi- manding accountability to amending vulnerability,” she said. “Marrying necessity “but it seems that there are ensuring appropriate legal and social cial intervention. The study is also to the Family Code. them off young is a way to get rid of no obvious necessities.” means and the social and economic address loopholes that allow people Parliamentarian Fatiha Saddas said their economic burden.” He stressed that the law affirms realities of families that encourage to circumvent the underage marriage it had become a top priority to re-ex- The first culprit is social norms, fol- that “education is a child’s basic right, underage marriages. law or make it a de facto reality that amine the Family Code, 16 years after lowed by economic fragility, in addi- a duty of the state and an obligation The marriage of minors is a societal requires a judicial decision. its inception. Repealing Article 20 of tion to inequality between the sexes, of the family. Therefore, we must mo- phenomenon that has cultural, social the code has become an imperative still very much rooted in rural culture. bilise to educate minors, not marry and economic dimensions. The law’s Mohamed al-Alawi is a Moroccan considering provisions of the 2011 This is contrary to the Moroccan Con- them off.” intervention can only be from top to writer. 24 February 9, 2020 Mosaic www.thearabweekly.com

Agenda

Muscat: Through February 15

The annual Muscat Festival in Oman features nightly fireworks, tradi- tional Omani music performances, local cuisine, craft displays, exhibi- tions from regional countries and traditional dancing.

Dubai: Through April 4

Organised by Dubai Culture and Arts Authority, the 10th Live Our Heritage Festival is based on the theme “An Eye on Emirati Heritage.” The event includes traditional crafts and national folk songs, a heritage workshop and other entertaining activities.

Beirut: February 18-March 22

Al Bustan International Festival of Music and the Performing Arts is a musical celebration that takes place at various venues in Beirut and pro- motes music from all over the world. The festival includes orchestral con- certs, choral music, opera and dance performances.

Dubai: Tourists walk through the ruins of the ancient Roman site of Volubilis, near the town of Moulay Idriss Zerhounon in Morocco’s north February 21-March 9 central Meknes region. (AFP) The Dubai Food Festival is a gastro- nomic celebration and a chance for visitors to explore the city through Record year for Morocco tourism food from street fare to fine-dining experiences. The festival celebrates cuisine from around the world. with increased air links to Europe Hurghada, Egypt: March 2-9

Saad Guerraoui Egypt Sensual Festival 2020 offers dancing, workshops and perfor- Casablanca mances from artists who will teach and dance with visitors. The event record 13 million tourists features pool parties, beach parties, visited Morocco in 2019, boat parties, workshops, shows and up 5.2% from the previous music performances. year, a rise attributed to in- A Marrakech: creased air links to Europe. Tourism revenues totalled 78.6 March 19-22 billion dirhams ($8.2 billion) in 2019, up from $7.6 billion the year before, The second Beat Hotel Marrakech the Moroccan Tourism Observatory will take place in the foothills of said. the Atlas Mountains. The festival Primary markets, which include features international artists and France and Spain, were behind the DJs in addition to global cuisine and rise in tourist arrivals because of well-being activities. The event will increased air links and new routes take place at Fellah Hotel. from Europe. French holidaymak- ers topped the list of tourists visiting Cairo: Morocco with approximately 2 mil- March 20-April 10 lion visitors last year. Marrakech, with its UNESCO- Downtown Contemporary Arts listed Old Town, and Agadir on the Festival is an international multidis- coast together accounted for 57% of ciplinary contemporary event that the 25.2 million hotel stays last year, includes local, regional and interna- the Moroccan Tourism Observatory tional music, theatre, dance, visual said. A woman walks in the Old City of Morocco’s port city of Tangiers. (AFP) arts and films by artists from Egypt, Marrakech reported a tourism the Arab world and beyond. The growth rate of 8% in 2019, double festival takes place in various venues the average growth of world tour- the National Tourism Confederation to make a profit. We must work to market, which has huge potential be- in Cairo. ism. The city received 3 million ar- (CNT). achieve an occupancy rate above cause of its proximity. rivals last year, while more than 8 In Morocco, tourism accounts 70% by strengthening air transport More than 200 operators took part Tunis: million stays were made at hotels in for about 10% of GDP and employs and investing more in promotion,” in the fair, showcasing multiple fac- April 2-12 the Marrakech-Safi region, with an more than 750,000 people. It is one said Kabbaj. ets of Moroccan tourism. Adil El Fa- occupancy rate of 61%. of Morocco’s main sources of foreign The CNT has presented a 2020 plan kir, director-general of the Moroccan The 15th Jazz a Carthage, an an- Hotel stays increased 5% from currency, alongside exports and re- aimed at making Morocco an authen- National Tourist Office, said all re- nual music festival, brings together 2018-19, with hotels posting a turno- mittances from Moroccans working tic destination offering a diversity of gions of Morocco were represented in renowned international and local ver of $760 million. abroad. experiences to share. The plan, de- the Morocco pavilion in Madrid. musicians for concerts, gatherings “2019 was a record year for nation- The Moroccan diaspora accounts veloped by private operators, seeks and street performances. Concerts will take place in Gammarth, Tunis al tourism. We must not be fooled for approximately half of the tourists to promote inclusive development of A record 13 million tourists by the figures, because tourism per- who visited Morocco in 2019. the tourism industry and improve its and Sidi Bou Said. formance can be further improved,” “The occupancy rate of around competitiveness. visited Morocco in 2019, up said Abdellatif Kabbaj, president of 45% is still not enough for hotels CNT Vice-President Fouzi Zemrani 5.2% from the previous year. Amman: told L’Economiste newspaper that April 10 various actions had been introduced “The main thing for us is that Mo- and others were planned during the rocco is well represented and gives The Dead Sea Marathon is an annual year. the best image of itself,” said Karima race that attracts thousands of run- A public-private partnership, the Benyaich, Morocco’s ambassador to ners and enthusiasts from all parts creation of a tourism academy to pro- Spain. of the world, including well-known mote training in the sector, the digi- The Moroccan Airports Authority marathon runners. The schedule tal transformation of the sector, the (ONDA) seeks to increase the number includes a 10km race for runners development of human capital, the of passengers to 60 million by 2025 specialising in shorter distances in strengthening of the competitiveness with the opening of new routes and addition to a 21km half marathon, a of tourism stakeholders, regulation of expansion of major airports. 50km relay and the main 50km ultra the sector and promotion of domestic The opening of the new Terminal 1 marathon. tourism were among the actions. at Casablanca’s Mohammed V Airport We welcome submissions of The plan offers support for small in January 2019 doubled its annual calendar items related to and medium-sized enterprises and reception capacity to 14 million pas- cultural events of interest to reorganisation of the Tourism Obser- sengers. The ONDA plans to rebuild travellers in the Middle East vatory to improve the analysis sys- Terminal 3 to increase the airport’s and North Africa. tem. capacity to 23 million by 2025. At Madrid’s International Tourism Fair in January, Morocco went on Saad Guerraoui is a contributor to Please send tips to: [email protected] A kitesurfer manoeuvres at Morocco’s Dakhla beach. (AFP) the offensive to target the Spanish The Arab Weekly on Maghreb issues.