Fight for Idlib Exposes Turkish-Russian Fault Lines
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UK £2 Issue 243, Year 5 EU €2.50 February 9, 2020 www.thearabweekly.com The Arab Anniversary “Abu Dajaj” world and of Hariri’s bid for the coronavirus assassination White House Pages 5-6, 20 Page 12 Page 18 Fight for Idlib exposes Turkish-Russian fault lines Thomas Seibert strategically important M5 high- way under their control. Unlike previous Syria interven- Istanbul tions by Ankara, Turkey’s latest move into Idlib is said to have resh fighting in Idlib prov- come as a surprise to the Kremlin. ince exposed deep fault Russia, the biggest military power lines in the Turkish-Russian in Syria and Assad’s main interna- F alliance in Syria, throwing tional backer, said Turkey’s incur- the future of the entente into ques- sion into Idlib had not been cleared tion. with Moscow. At least eight Turkish and 13 Syr- Orhan Gafarli, Russia analyst at ian servicemen died in an exchange the Ankara Policy Centre think- of fire between forces of the two tank, said the escalation in Idlib neighbours near the town of Saraqib would have a negative effect on in Idlib in the early hours of Febru- Turkish-Russian relations. “There ary 3. Turkey sent troops and hun- is a certain cooling of relations,” he dreds of military vehicles, including said by telephone. battle tanks, over the border into However, Gafarli said he did not Idlib the day before to protect 12 expect a rupture of the alliance. Turkish military posts and to con- Turkey and Russia have till now front the advancing Syrian Army. cooperated closely in Syria, fueling concerns in the West that Turkey Michael Tanchum is turning away from its tradition- al allies in Europe and the United States. Erdogan said he saw no reason to “trigger a serious confrontation “Idlib is where the rubber with Russia” given their “numer- meets the road.” ous strategic initiatives.” However, Gonul Tol, director of Speaking two days after the es- the Centre for Turkish Studies at calation, Turkish President Recep the Middle East Institute in Wash- Tayyip Erdogan said he was giving ington, said: “Ankara failed to see Damascus until the end of Febru- that what made Russia sympathet- ary to pull back from areas near ic to Turkish goals and incursions Turkish observation posts. in Syria was largely the presence Endgame. Syrian Army soldiers advance in Tall Touqan village, in Syria’s north-western Idlib However, Syrian President of US troops and that, once they province, near Aleppo. (AFP) Bashar Assad, who vowed to take leave, Russia would have little rea- control of Idlib, appeared to ig- son to tolerate Turkey’s actions.” lights conflicting interests in Syria, lution for the current confrontation ence in Ankara has waned with the nore Erdogan’s warning. His troops Even though there does not analysts said. in Idlib, with Russia acting as a go- ascendency of Russia’s role, to offer reached Saraqib and Ankara said seem to be a risk for now of Turkey “Idlib is where the rubber meets the between to organise a deal between unequivocal support to Ankara and to three of its 12 outposts — all in the and Russia totally parting ways or road,” Michael Tanchum, a senior fel- Ankara and Damascus. “But a bad try to drive a wedge between Turkey south-eastern part of the region — clashing in Syria, the situation in low at the Austrian Institute for Euro- scenario with new fighting is also pos- and Russia. were encircled by Syrian forces. Idlib is likely to constitute a grow- pean and Security Policy, a think-tank sible,” he said. The Syrian Observatory for Human ing challenge for the relationship in Vienna, wrote on Twitter. The fighting in Idlib offered a rare Thomas Seibert is an Arab Weekly Rights said Syrian troops brought between Ankara and Moscow as Gafarli said it might be possible for opportunity for Washington, Turkey’s correspondent. the complete Idlib section of the the fighting in the province high- Turkey, Russia and Assad to find a so- traditional main partner whose influ- P6,10,16 Tunisian diplomacy, politics face Mideast ripple effects The Arab Weekly staff home office. consulting with the home office. States at the start of his administra- that he blamed Palestinian Presi- A Tunisian Foreign Ministry Sources in Tunis said the Tuni- tion.” dent Mahmoud Abbas for the spike statement said: “Tunisia’s ambas- sian government was seemingly Baati, a career diplomat who had in anti-Israeli violence. “Calls for Tunis sador to the United Nations has worried about the possible effect served previously as Tunisian rep- days of rage in response and he said been dismissed for purely profes- on Tunisian-US relations from resentative at UN headquarters in that even before he saw the plan,” ssues related to Tunisia’s stance sional reasons concerning his weak Washington’s unhappiness about Geneva, left retirement last Sep- Kushner said. regarding the United States’ performance and lack of coordina- the country’s stance on the issue. tember and was appointed to the Middle East peace plan and tion with the ministry on important A source told Foreign Policy United Nations in New York ahead I normalisation with Israel have matters under discussion at the magazine: “Tunisia’s new president of Tunisia taking a year-long seat on Tunisian UN intruded into the country’s diplo- United Nations.” is looking to remove top officials the Security Council as of January. representative abruptly matic relations and domestic de- Official sources in Tunis accused from the previous government, Tunisian President Kais Saied recalled home, reportedly bate. Baati, who, since the beginning of including Baati, and a complaint strongly criticised Trump’s Middle over White House Moncef Baati, a veteran diplomat, the year, occupied a non-perma- delivered from the White East peace plan, calling it “the in- complaints about position was fired February 7 as Tunisia’s UN nent seat on the UN House sealed his justice of the century.” on US peace plan. ambassador over his handling of is- Security Council, f a t e .” The plan would grant Palestin- sues including a UN Security Coun- of going beyond The maga- ians limited statehood but also give Abbas, who is to address the cil draft resolution over the recent- instructions of zine stated Israel sovereignty over Jerusalem, United Nations on February 11, has ly released US peace plan. his government that the the West Bank, including the Jordan spoken with Saied and “thanked Diplomatic sources attributed in his position decision to Valley and allow annexation of set- him for Tunisian support,” said the Baati’s abrupt recall to complaints against US fire Baati tlement blocks in the Israeli-occu- Tunisian presidency. from the White House. President Don- followed pied Palestinian territories. Tunisia also found itself em- Media reports said a Tunisian- ald Trump’s “com- Tunisia needs US and Western broiled in controversy over the issue Indonesian draft resolution, dated Deal of the plaints support to shore up its economy of normalisation with Israel after February 4, stated it “strongly re- Century. from the and help it face security challenges Tunisian women tennis players’ de- grets” that the plan presented by the French TV United with a domestic jihadist problem cision to play an Israeli team in the United States and Israel “breaches channel France States” and and threats of militant infiltration Fed Cup tournament. The Tunisian international law and internation- 24 quoted Baati as was “viewed as from Libya and Algeria. Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a ally endorsed terms of reference for denying the accusa- part of an effort Because of his sudden recall, statement accusing the players of the achievement of a just, compre- tion that he went to head off Baati missed a closed-door briefing violating “historic commitments hensive and lasting solution” to the beyond instruc- a major rift February 6 on the US peace plan at of Tunisia towards the Palestinian Israeli-Palestinian conflict. tions, saying he Security Council in relations the Security Council by Trump’s ad- cause.” It was not clear if the draft had was too profes- with the viser and son-in-law Jared Kushner. Saied has equated normalisation been cleared by Baati with the sional to neglect United Nations United Kushner said after the briefing with Israel with “high treason.” 2 February 9, 2020 Top news Iraqi anti-government Lebanon’s cabinet heads to controversial protests heat up in Najaf vote of confidence The Arab Weekly staff Samar Kadi security,” a security source told al- Joumhouria. Demonstrators have on several oc- London Beirut casions protested near parliament and prevented lawmakers from lashes between anti-govern- ebanese parliamentarians reaching the building. ment protesters and sup- are preparing a vote of confi- Backed by Hezbollah and its allies, porters of powerful Iraqi dence regarding Prime Minis- the Shia Amal Movement and the C cleric Muqtada al-Sadr re- L ter Hassan Diab’s Hezbollah- Christian Free Patriotic Movement sulted in the death of at least eight backed government amid extremely of President Michel Aoun, which people in the southern shrine city tight security aimed at deterring an- hold a majority in parliament, the of Najaf. ti-government demonstrators who government is likely to win a vote of The fatalities were reported after pledged to escalate protests to dis- confidence. al-Sadr supporters raided a protest rupt the meeting. The main opposition parties — the camp February 5. Reports said the The parliament is to convene Feb- Future Movement of former Prime attackers threw petrol bombs at ruary 11-12 to review the new cabi- Minister Saad Hariri, the Progressive tents and fired on protesters.