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Tibetan Plateau and Climate Change Volume 7 | Issue 38 | Number 2 | Article ID 3224 | Sep 21, 2009 The Asia-Pacific Journal | Japan Focus Regional Cooperation at the Third Pole: The Himalayan- Tibetan Plateau and Climate Change Isabel Hilton, Andreas Schild, Mohan Munasinghe, Dipak Gyawali Regional Cooperation at the Third The planet's "third pole" – the Pole: The Himalayan-Tibetan Himalayas and the Tibetan Plateau – is a climate-change hotspot. The Plateau and Climate Change threat to the region's cryosphere – its vast, frozen stores of fresh Isabel Hilton, Andreas Schild, Mohan water – and to the countries in its Munasinghe, and Dipak Gyawali watersheds is of global importance. The Third Pole is a chinadialogue is the world's first fully bilingual forum to inform, discuss and website devoted to climate change and the search for solutions to this environment. Based in London, Beijing and San gathering regional crisis. In the Francisco, www.chinadialogue.net is a unique run-up to the “Kathmandu to online space where the views and ideas of Copenhagen 2009” conference, Chinese and non-Chinese readers are heard which focused on South Asian and exchanged. In addition to articles by countries’ vulnerabilities to global distinguished contributors, the website warming and aimed to catalyse a features video podcasts and bilingual book common Himalayan response, reviews. It is read in more than 190 countries Isabel Hilton, editor of and territories, with around 60% of its chinadialogue, spoke to readership in China, including key officials, development specialist Andreas policy makers, journalists, radical thinkers, Schild, Sri Lankan physicist Mohan businesspeople and students. Munasinghe and Dipak Gyawali, former water minister of Nepal. chinadialogue’s core proposition is the concept What follow are three excerpts of dialogue, a concept that involves a from her discussions, with links to willingness to listen as well as to speak, even the full interviews at when the views expressed may seem chinadialogue. unpalatable or unhelpful. chinadialogue has pioneered the discussion of climate change in Glaciers and Guesswork China, showcasing the positive as well as the negative aspects of China's approach toIsabel Hilton (IH): Since the last IPCC report – environmental matters, and helping to raise the the Fourth Assessment Report of the understanding of such key issues asIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – environmental and climate security, of the many scientists have said that climate change global deal on climate change, of theis moving faster than was reflected by that importance of individual action – and of the assessment. Is this your observation with regional importance of climate change, with its respect to the “third pole” – the Himalaya and project, “The Third Pole”. the Tibetan plateau? 1 7 | 38 | 2 APJ | JF Andreas Schild (AS): We cannot confirm this Himalayan region, we do not have reliable data statement and the main reason is that we do and we do not have the monitoring instruments not have directly available reliable andin place to make clear statements. consistent data. This is also the reason why the IPCC Fourth Assessment hardly mentions the IH: Is it possible to detail the projected impacts Hindu Kush-Himalayan region. We areon regional downstream countries? Do you see presently involved in a review of the situation any connection, for instance, between the of the glaciers and we can confirm that the retreat of the glaciers and such phenomena as retreat of glaciers, which has already been the failure of the Indian monsoon this year, or reported, is taking place and is accelerating. the floods and typhoons in China and Taiwan, or are these coincidental phenomena? However, we hesitate to make such a statement, because we have to see what kind of AS: It is very dangerous to take punctual, one- glacier we are speaking about. We also have to time events and interpret them for the be aware that certain glaciers -- large glaciers explanation of a global phenomenon. We need multi-annual data chains and have to apply in the Karakorum, for instance -- are growing. modelling techniques, which indicate certain But even this statement tends to create trends. To refer to isolated events and interpret misunderstandings: the growing is probably them directly is very risky. Studies of such due to changing precipitation patterns, perhaps major events as floods in South Asia since the more precipitation in the winter season due to 1960s tend to indicate that they are the westerly winds. But this is an intelligent guess, product of locally isolated outbursts, which as which for the time being cannot be supported typical for mountain systems. The trend is that by science. Glaciers, which depend on the they are recurring more frequently and with monsoon in the western Himalayas, tend to be greater amplitude. receding quicker. IH: What do we know and how do we know it? It is a vast and varied region, but in some respects it is one huge ecosystem fragmented across several countries. How important is it to reach a comprehensive scientific understanding of the region scientifically, and is that possible? AS: We have to accept that within the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region there are great variations. In mountains, we have to accept that there are very local and rapidly changing extreme situations and events. From this point of view, it is not possible to make sweeping Himalayas Mountains: Hindu-Kush rivers statements for the whole region. However, what is possible is to make longitudinal and Glaciers are excellent indicators because latitudinal transects, which allow observations change is immediately visible andand conclusions for sub-regions, water basins understandable for the layman. But addressing or specific systems. ICIMOD [International the changing precipitation patterns of the Centre for Integrated Mountain Development] monsoon and changing biodiversity require is working on such a concept with the regional much more refined monitoring tools. The partners and finds an encouraging interest bottom line is that for the Hindu Kush- among the specialists. 2 7 | 38 | 2 APJ | JF climate change has substantially increased. Some regional countries make a substantial effort. However, their positions depend greatly on the prevailing situation in the respective countries. There are extreme cases in the region, such as Afghanistan, Nepal and Myanmar. All the three have very specific internal agendas and priorities. Nepal is an extreme case because it is potentially a main loser and winner at the same time. However, climate change is very low on the political agenda. Hindu-Kush mountains Mitigation is a completely different matter and In order to become relevant, this needs firm cannot be answered in a professional way in and long-term commitment from thethis context. The difficulty for the big regional governments. At this point, we have to define countries is that mitigation is directly linked relevant sub-regions where comprehensive with growth. The global debate on mitigation statements can be made. Political borders do will only have long-term effects. In the not usually define these: they aremeantime, it is essential to strengthen transboundary and cross political borders. I am adaptation and build resilient communities. referring here to river basins, to landscape Practically, this means that the adaptation corridors and so on. agenda has to be linked closely to other agendas. Poverty is the overriding issue; for The difficulties are that, in the past, data mountain communities, globalisation, migration gathering and interpretation has been done on and isolation also are concerns. an ad hoc basis, project-wise and without continuity. The governments have not given Mountains are largely suffering from climate priority to such phenomena. The consequences change and are not the polluters. On the other are a high presence of external actors, such as hand, they have not benefited from the carbon- universities, which do a lot of research but do trading facilities. The global architecture, data not necessarily coordinate. Another difficulty is availability and transaction costs do not favour the different level of capacity of thethem. We fear their potential will also be institutions, which does not facilitate the limited in the future. This could have dramatic exchange of information, and a lot of data are consequences. Mountains are very sensitive not exchanged because of institutional, political systems and are fragile. The ecosystem and personal reasons. services in terms of water, biodiversity, cultural heritage, space for recovery, tourism and so on IH: How would you assess the region’swill be affected. This will influence food readiness in terms of awareness of the impacts, security, particularly in Asia, where the main adaptation and mitigation strategies? rivers are highly dependent on mountain and snow and ice discharge. AS: It is very difficult to answer a question that encompasses so many countries and the substantial differences between awareness, adaptation and mitigation. We can safely say Andreas Schild is director general of the that the awareness of the consequences of International Centre for Integrated Mountain 3 7 | 38 | 2 APJ | JF Development (ICIMOD). they are getting a much higher volume of male flowers to female flowers, so the crop is Read the full interview with Andreas Schild smaller. The mangoes come into flower and here. start to grow, but then the fruits shrivel up and drop off, so the mango harvest is shrinking. Taking the Toad’s-eye View Lowland pests have started moving up into the mountains; certain weeds from the lowlands IH: How can science become more relevant to are being found at higher altitudes. the region? Dipak Gyawali (DG): The effects in different parts of the Himalaya and south Asia will be very different and it’s not all about glaciers. The Maldives will be drowned; Sri Lanka may have more tsunamis and more intense storms; Bangladesh will have its own problems. They will not be impacted directly by the glaciers; the interest in the glaciers is that they are powerful indicators: they tell you clearly that something is wrong.
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