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WSI China Security Vol.2 No.2 Summer 2006 中 China 国 Security China Security 安 Summer 2006 Bringing Chinese Perspectives to Washington 全 China’s Defining Challenge: Energy 中 国 安 Energy Interdependence 全 Zha Daojiong Sea Power and China’s Strategic Choices Zhang Wenmu www.wsichina.org The Oil Weapon: Myth of China’s Vulnerability Bruce Blair, Chen Yali, and Eric Hagt Energy Conservation as Security Wang Qingyi Institutional Insecurity Kong Bo Summer Politics vs. Market Mao Yushi 2006 A publication of the World Security Institute China Program www.wsichina.org Editorial Policy ensure the veracity and originality of their statements. All articles should be supported with footnotes. Unless China Security China Security is an international and interdisciplinary otherwise informed, we assume any article submitted quarterly policy journal dedicated to bringing diverse to us is being offered exclusively, and that no article Bruce G. Blair Publisher perspectives to bear on vital traditional and non- accepted for publication will be published elsewhere Eric Hagt Editor traditional security issues that impact China’s strategic simultaneously in any form without our knowledge. development and its relations with the United States Chen Yali Associate Editor and the region. The journal seeks to improve the understanding of China amongst American policy Edit/Review Assistant Editors practitioners and the public by providing authoritative All submitted manuscripts are first reviewed by the Daphne Dador, Jason Hecht, analysis on critical security issues. editors, and, whenever possible, responses given to Theresa Hitchens, Cindy Li, Whitney Parker authors within two weeks regarding initial acceptance China Security presents ideas from a wide range of of articles. Submissions of interest will be sent out for intellectual traditions that cover both theoretical and Ann Li Production Editor Guan Yu Production Designer external review and authors will be notified for revisions policy-oriented research on political, social, economic within four weeks of submission. Papers sent back to Manuscript Reviewers and military issues relevant to China. As an independent authors for revision must be returned within two weeks. journal, China Security provides a peer-reviewed forum for Acceptance is contingent on an author’s submission of David Chen, Dean Cheng, Gregory Kulacki, Jeffrey Lewis, research publication that enhances the communication complete and consistent data, an accurate reference list, James Clay Moltz, Victoria Samson, David Wright, Yuan Jingdong of concepts and promotes a creative dialogue within and conclusions consistent with results demonstrated in China and across national boundaries. the study. Inconsistencies and inaccuracies found after acceptance may warrant return of the manuscript for Editorial Board The articles in China Security do not represent any resubmission. The decision to publish a manuscript Jeffrey A. Bader Brookings Institution consensus of opinion. While readers may agree or is solely the responsibility of the editors and Editorial Richard K. Betts Columbia University disagree with the ideas presented in any one brief, it Board. China Security keeps the names of authors and is our purpose to present a diversity of views rather Thomas J. Christensen Princeton University reviewers confidential during the peer review process to than identifying with a particular body of beliefs. The ensure objective and fair assessment of submissions. Philip Coyle World Security Institute analyses, interpretations and conclusions expressed in Lowell Dittmer University of California, Berkeley China Security are solely those of the individual authors Bates Gill Center for Strategic and International Studies and should not be attributed to the World Security Institute China Program, China Security’s Editorial Board Theresa Hitchens World Security Institute or any individuals or organizations. Joan Johnson-Freese Naval War College Albert Keidel Carnegie Endowement for International Peace Call for papers Nicholas R. Lardy Institute for International Economics Li Bin Tsinghua University Manuscript Types China Security welcomes unsolicited man- John J. Mearsheimer University of Chicago Analyses uscripts and article proposals written in These are referenced articles that provide analytical Mike M. Mochizuki George Washington University Chinese or English. Each quarterly is- description of, and prescriptions for addressing, sue of the journal focuses on a specific Michael E. O’Hanlon Brookings Institution problems that represent a major challenge or trend in topic, but is open for submissions on Jonathan D. Pollack Naval War College China. We welcome authors to provide new thinking other timely subjects related to areas of Shen Dingli Fudan University about practical policy recommendations. We do not China’s security. All articles should be Shi Yinhong Renmin University of China accept opinion pieces. Article length should be 3,000 to 7,000 words. We welcome papers written either in supported with footnotes. Teng Jianqun China Arms Control & Disarmament Associastion Chinese or English. Translated pieces will be subject to Frank von Hippel Princeton University final review of the authors. Submissions should be sent via email to: Xue Lan Tsinghua University [email protected] Yuan Peng China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations Book and Literature Reviews Each issue also contains reviews of recently published or send to: Zha Daojiong Renmin University of China books and other forms of literature (monographs and China Security journal articles) on the topic area. These materials have Editor been published in China, are written in Chinese and This issue was made possible through the generous support of make an important contribution to the field. China Program the Robert and Ardis James Foundation World Security Institute 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW Published by the World Security Institute and produced jointly with the Chen Shi China Research Group Style and Content Washington, D.C. 20036 The best guide to what we are looking for, in terms of both World Security Institute Chen Shi China Research Group 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW Suite 2480 Sunflower Tower substance and style, is what we have already published. Washington, D.C. 20036 37 Maizidian St. Chaoyang District Prospective authors should start by examining current www.worldsecurityinstitute.org Beijing, 100026 P.R.China and recent issues of the journal. We rely on authors to Contents Zha Daojiong Energy Interdependence 2 Zhang Wenmu Sea Power and China’s Strategic Choices 17 Bruce Blair, Chen Yali, The Oil Weapon: 32 and Eric Hagt Myth of China’s Vulnerability Kong Bo Institutional Insecurity 64 Wang Qingyi Energy Conservation as Security 89 Mao Yushi Politics vs. Market 106 Energy Interdependence Zha Daojiong A Critical Juncture The rapid pace of growth in China’s total energy consumption over the past decade and the seemingly unrestrained rise of oil prices have generated a critical mass of discussion about China’s energy security. The principle concern over energy security in China is the perception that the Chinese economy is highly dependent on a stable supply of energy and cannot tolerate the slightest interruption or shortfall. In light of this, it is crucial to note that since China became a net importer of oil in the early 1990s, there has not been a single case of deliberate disruption of its foreign supply. What about the future prospects of disruption? There will be numerous pitfalls along the way, but managing the growing levels of interdependence between China and the rest of the world provides the best assurance against acts of hostility by either foreign suppliers or third parties. Achieving this de- pends both on China’s own energy policies, as well as the role of international actors in China’s search for energy security. Energy security is not simply the combination of energy and security. This distinction is particularly relevant when international factors come into play. Zha Daojiong is an associate professor of international relations and chair of the Department of International Political Economy at Renmin University of China. He is an expert on Chinese energy policies, politics and diplomacy, as well as non-traditional security issues. Zha is the co-author of Building a Neighborly Community: Post Cold War China, Japan, and Southeast Asia and The Political Economy of China’s Oil Security. China Security, Summer 2006, pp.2 - 16 ©2006 by the World Security Institute 2 China Security Summer 2006 Energy Interdependence Energy security contains three essential goals: the availability of energy needed for stable economic and social development, freedom from interruption of the energy supply, and the affordability of energy prices. As such, thinking about possible instruments for achieving energy security does not have to begin by assessing a nation’s military options. Considerations of energy and security, on the other hand, have more to do with geopolitical factors and the national policies of countries affecting the control of energy development and transportation around the world. Distinguishing between these two ideas is more than an academic exercise. Energy security, as defined above, goes more to the heart of realizing a nation’s well-being, but it must also take into consideration issues involving energy and security. Availability The availability of energy resources is first and foremost conditioned by geological endowment. The second determinant is the scientific and technical means for
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