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NTDOP Expect a Return to the Golden Days

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NTDOP Expect a Return to the Golden Days NTDOP Expect a return to the golden days October 2020 1 Next Trillion dollar opportunity is on, QGLP works 훼 Documented India growth story on Alpha across products Investment Philosophy THINK EQUITY THINK MOTILAL OSWAL India growth story is on … The next trillion dollar opportunity India’s GDP trend in USD bn • 60 years for first 6,000 th 5 USD tn trillion dollar of GDP 3 years 5,022 5,000 4th USD tn 3 years 3,950 4,000 3rd USD tn • Every NTD (next 8 years 3,107 trillion dollar) in 3,000 2nd USD tn 7 years 2,039 successively few years 2,000 1st USD tn 58 years 948 1,000 0 FY60 FY80 FY03 FY05 FY08 FY10 FY13 FY15 FY17 FY20 FY51 FY70 FY90 FY00 FY01 FY02 FY04 FY06 FY07 FY09 FY11 FY12 FY14 FY16 FY18 FY19 FY22E FY25E FY27E FY21E FY23E FY24E FY26E FY28E FY29E Source: MOAMC Internal Research Disclaimer: The above graph/data is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only. The data mentioned herein are for general and comparison purpose only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact. and should not used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. THINK EQUITY 3 THINK MOTILAL OSWAL Linear growth, exponential opportunity Doubling of per capita GDP leads to 10x opportunity in Basic Spend discretionary categories Discretionary Spend Housing 1,000 Consumer Autos Durables 10 x 100 Entertainment Premium Travel Wear 900 1,000 Higher savings also mean opportunities in: Capital GDP per capita GDP per capita Infrastructure USD 1,000 USD 2,000 Goods Source: MOAMC Internal Research Disclaimer: The above graph/data is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only. The data mentioned herein are for general and comparison purpose only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact. and should not used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. THINK EQUITY 4 THINK MOTILAL OSWAL Entering the sweet spot of the market We believe that INR 3,500 Cr – INR 30,000 Cr market cap is the sweet spot for Indian equities They can provide excellent balance between strong growth and a demonstrated history of management success Market Capitalization (US$) Capitalization Market • Extensively researched 94 > INR 30,000 Cr • Moderate growth • High institutional holding • Under-researched, INR 3,500 Cr to • Under- owned 288 Sweet spot of the equity INR 30,000 Cr • High growth market • Demonstrated management history Number of Companies of Number • Many fail at pre-emergence < INR 1223 stage 3500cr • Business models not established Source: NSEIndia, data as on January 31, 2019 Disclaimer: The above graph/data is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only. The data mentioned herein are for general and comparison purpose only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact. and should not used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. THINK EQUITY 5 THINK MOTILAL OSWAL QGLP in a nutshell Our well documented Investment Philosophy Quality of business x Quality of Growth in earnings management • Volume growth • Stable business, preferably consumer facing • Price growth • Huge business opportunity • Mix change • Sustainable competitive advantage Q G • Operating leverage • Competent management team • Financial leverage • Healthy financials & ratios Longevity – of both Q & G Price • Long-term relevance of business L P • Reasonable valuation, relative • Extending competitive advantage period to quality & growth prospects • Sustenance of growth momentum • High margin of safety THINK EQUITY 6 THINK MOTILAL OSWAL 24 years of Wealth Creation Studies Powerful Investment Frameworks • Porter’s 5 Forces • Value Migration • Great, Good, Gruesome • Emergence & Endurance • Next Trillion Dollar Opportunity • Winner Categories, Category Winners • Management – 90% rule of investing • Long-term power of compounding • Payback ratio – Market Cap ÷ Next 5 years PAT • PEG – Trailing P/E to Forward earnings CAGR THINK EQUITY 7 THINK MOTILAL OSWAL QGLP works – Healthy Alpha across all products since inception Date of inception in brackets Fund CAGR Benchmark CAGR 21% 17% 14% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -4% -13% Value Strategy NTDOP Strategy IOP Strategy IOP V2 Strategy BOP Strategy (Mar 2003) (Dec 2007) (Feb 2010) (Feb 2018) (Jan 2018) Source: MOAMC Internal Research Disclaimer: The above graph/data is used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only. The sector mentioned herein are for general and comparison purpose only and not a complete disclosure of every material fact. and should not used for development or implementation of an investment strategy. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future. THINK EQUITY 8 THINK MOTILAL OSWAL NTDOP- Portfolio which has identified multi-baggers 1,540 Above Strong 1,600 Route of INR 100 invested in during the period FY 13 to Price average PAT FY 18 CAGR RoE CAGR 1,400 Bajaj Finance Ltd. Eicher Motors Ltd. Page Industries Ltd. Voltas Ltd. 1,107 Eicher 1,200 30% 43% 62% NSE 500 TR HPCL Motors 1,000 824 Page 53% 25% 24% Industries 800 681 600 Bajaj 20% 33% 73% 544 Finance 400 200 Voltas 15% 22% 40% 213 0 HPCL 21% 70% 40% Jun/14 Jun/17 Jun/13 Jun/15 Jun/16 Sep/13 Sep/16 Sep/14 Sep/15 Sep/17 Mar/15 Mar/18 Mar/13 Mar/14 Mar/16 Mar/17 Dec/15 Dec/13 Dec/14 Dec/16 Dec/17 Source: MOAMC Internal Research Disclaimer: The Stocks mentioned above are used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only and should not be used for development or implementation of any investment strategy. It should not be construed as investment advice to any party. The stocks may or may not be part of our portfolio/strategy/ schemes. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future THINK EQUITY 9 THINK MOTILAL OSWAL Eicher Motors: 62% CAGR for 5 years v/s 16% for benchmark 1,400 Route of INR 100 invested in during the period FY 13 to FY 18 NTD Theme: Premium motorcycles 1,200 Eicher Motors Ltd. NSE 500 TR Key numbers 1,000 FY13-18 Average RoE 30% 800 PAT CAGR 43% 5.5x Price CAGR 62% 600 Nifty 500 TRI 16% 400 200 Source: MOAMC Internal Research 0 Disclaimer: The Stocks mentioned above are used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only and should not be used for development or implementation of any investment strategy. It should not be construed as Jun/14 Jun/16 Jun/13 Jun/15 Jun/17 Sep/13 Sep/15 Sep/17 Sep/16 investment advice to any party. The stocks may or may not be part of our Sep/14 Mar/13 Mar/15 Mar/14 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Dec/16 Dec/13 Dec/14 Dec/15 Dec/17 portfolio/strategy/ schemes. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future THINK EQUITY 10 THINK MOTILAL OSWAL Page Industries: 47% CAGR for 5 years v/s 16% for benchmark 900 Route of INR 100 invested in during the period FY 13 to FY 18 NTD Theme: Premium-ization in innerwear 800 Page Industries Ltd. NSE 500 TR Key numbers 700 FY13-18 600 Average RoE 53% 500 PAT CAGR 25% 3x Price CAGR 47% 400 Nifty 500 TRI 16% 300 200 100 Source: MOAMC Internal Research 0 Disclaimer: The Stocks mentioned above are used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only and should not be used for development or implementation of any investment strategy. It should not be construed as Jun/14 Jun/16 Jun/13 Jun/15 Jun/17 Sep/13 Sep/15 Sep/17 Sep/16 investment advice to any party. The stocks may or may not be part of our Sep/14 Mar/13 Mar/15 Mar/14 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Dec/16 Dec/13 Dec/14 Dec/15 Dec/17 portfolio/strategy/ schemes. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future THINK EQUITY 11 THINK MOTILAL OSWAL Bajaj Finance: 73% CAGR for 5 years v/s 16% for benchmark 1,800 Route of INR 100 invested in during the period FY 13 to FY 18 NTD Theme: Consumer durables financing 1,600 Bajaj Finance Ltd. NSE 500 TR Key numbers 1,400 FY13-18 1,200 Average RoE 20% 1,000 PAT CAGR 33% 8x Price CAGR 73% 800 Nifty 500 TRI 16% 600 400 200 Source: MOAMC Internal Research 0 Disclaimer: The Stocks mentioned above are used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only and should not be used for development or implementation of any investment strategy. It should not be construed as Jun/14 Jun/16 Jun/13 Jun/15 Jun/17 Sep/13 Sep/15 Sep/17 Sep/16 investment advice to any party. The stocks may or may not be part of our Sep/14 Mar/13 Mar/15 Mar/14 Mar/16 Mar/17 Mar/18 Dec/16 Dec/13 Dec/14 Dec/15 Dec/17 portfolio/strategy/ schemes. Past performance may or may not be sustained in future THINK EQUITY 12 THINK MOTILAL OSWAL Voltas: 40% CAGR for 5 years v/s 16% for benchmark 1,000 Route of INR 100 invested in during the period FY 13 to FY 18 NTD Theme: Air-conditioners 900 Voltas Ltd. NSE 500 TR 800 Key numbers 700 FY13-18 Average RoE 15% 600 PAT CAGR 22% 500 4x Price CAGR 40% 400 Nifty 500 TRI 16% 300 200 100 Source: MOAMC Internal Research 0 Disclaimer: The Stocks mentioned above are used to explain the concept and is for illustration purpose only and should not be used for development or implementation of any investment strategy.
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