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The Evolution of Thought on the Availability of Non-Renewable Natural Resources in the Long Run

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The Evolution of Thought on the Availability of Non-Renewable Natural Resources in the Long Run THE EVOLUTION OF THOUGHT ON THE AVAILABILITY OF NON-RENEWABLE NATURAL RESOURCES IN THE LONG RUN by Wilhelm Pieter Nel Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of Master of Commerce in the subject Economics At the University of South Africa Supervisor: Prof D Hodge 6 September 2020 i DECLARATION I declare that the work I am submitting for assessment contains no section copied in whole or in part from any other source unless explicitly identified in quotation marks and with detailed and complete referencing. 6 September 2020 (Signature of WP Nel) Date ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to acknowledge the assistance that I have received from my supervisor, Professor Duncan Hodge at Unisa’s Department of Economics. ABSTRACT There are different views about the availability of non-renewable resources in the long run. Hotelling’s (1931) seminal model of exhaustible resources greatly influenced subsequent studies. Hotelling’s and related fixed-stock models imply decreasing availability and increasing real prices of non-renewable resources in the long run. However, most of the empirical evidence does not support the prediction of higher real price trends. Hotelling’s model has been criticised for ignoring certain factors relevant to the discovery and innovation-driven creation of additional non-renewable reserves. Contrary to Hotelling’s fixed-stock assumption, this may expand the total stock of non-renewable resources available for profitable extraction. The main research objective of this study is to address this problem by identifying a broader range of factors to be used when constructing models of the availability of non-renewable resources. This was done by means of an extensive literature survey of both historic and more contemporary thought in this regard. This study shows the evolution of thinking and reasons behind the diversity of views on the availability of non-renewable resources. Thirty core facts were identified and a broad research framework formulated, including policies and methods to mitigate resource depletion and ensure availability both at national and global levels. A key finding is that improvements in various productivity-enhancing technologies have, thus far, delayed the onset of decreased availability and higher real price trends implied by Hotelling’s and other fixed-stock models. ii NOMENCLATURE A number of concepts and terms used in this dissertation are defined and/or briefly explained in Appendix A. These words and phrases appear in italics. Table of Contents DECLARATION ..................................................................................................................................... ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................................................................................................... ii ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................................ ii NOMENCLATURE ................................................................................................................................ iii LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES ............................................................................................................ vi LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ........................................................................................ ix CHAPTER 1 – INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION ....................................................................................................................... 1 1.2 THE ECONOMICS OF NON‐RENEWABLE RESOURCE EXTRACTIVE INDUSTRY ......................... 3 1.3 AVAILABILITY IN THE LONG RUN ............................................................................................. 5 1.4 AVAILABILITY PARAMETERS, DIMENSIONS AND MEASURES .................................................. 7 1.4.1 Availability parameters and measures ............................................................................ 7 1.4.2 Dimensions of availability ............................................................................................... 8 1.5 THE GROWING DEMAND FOR NON‐RENEWABLE RESOURCES: REASON FOR CONCERN? ... 13 1.6 MINERAL ECONOMICS .......................................................................................................... 18 1.7 PROBLEM STATEMENT, RESEARCH QUESTIONS AND OBJECTIVES ....................................... 20 1.8 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY .................................................................................................. 21 1.9 BACKGROUND INFORMATION .............................................................................................. 23 1.9.1 A note about non‐renewable resources and their classification .................................. 23 1.9.2 Renewable and non‐renewable energy sources ........................................................... 23 1.9.3 Non‐metallic industrial minerals ................................................................................... 25 1.9.4 Metals ........................................................................................................................... 26 1.9.5 Elements needed for food production .......................................................................... 27 1.10 LITERATURE SURVEY ............................................................................................................. 27 1.11 SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY ............................................................................................... 2 8 1.12 SCOPE AND DELIMITATION ................................................................................................... 29 1.13 THE WAY FORWARD ............................................................................................................. 29 iii CHAPTER 2 – EARLY THINKING ABOUT THE AVAILABILITY OF NON‐RENEWABLE RESOURCES ............ 31 2.1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 31 2.2 THE TIME OF THE ALCHEMISTS (from pre‐history to about 1735) ....................................... 31 2.3 THE ERA OF THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION (From about 1750 to 1850) ............................. 34 2.3.1 The Industrial Revolution (1750 – 1850), economic growth, consumerism and non‐ renewable resource needs ............................................................................................................ 34 2.3.2 The doctrine of increasing natural resource scarcity .................................................... 35 2.3.3 Adam Smith (1723 – 1790) ........................................................................................... 36 2.3.4 De Condorcet (1743 – 1794) and Malthus (1766 – 1834)............................................. 36 2.3.5 John Williams (1729 –1797) .......................................................................................... 37 2.3.6 Ricardo (1772 – 1823) ................................................................................................... 38 2.3.7 Carey (1793 – 1879) ...................................................................................................... 38 2.3.8 Mill (1806 – 1873) ......................................................................................................... 40 2.3.9 Marx (1818 – 1883) ....................................................................................................... 41 2.3.10 Jevons (1835 – 1882) .................................................................................................... 42 2.4 SCARCITY IN THE “NEW WORLD” AND THE CONSERVATION MOVEMENT (1890‐1920) ..... 44 2.5 INTERTEMPORAL ISSUES ....................................................................................................... 47 2.5.1 The roots of sustainable development ......................................................................... 47 2.5.2 Cassel (1866 – 1945) ..................................................................................................... 48 2.5.3 Gray (1881 – 1952) ........................................................................................................ 50 2.5.4 Hotelling and “The Economics of Exhaustible Resources” (1931) ................................ 51 2.5.5 Zimmerman’s “Functional Theory of Mineral Resources” (1933) ................................ 56 2.5.6 Barnett and Morse (1963) ............................................................................................. 56 2.5.7 Limits to Growth (1972) ................................................................................................ 5 7 2.5.8 The oil crises of 1973 and 1979 .................................................................................... 60 2.5.9 “Our Common Future“ .................................................................................................. 60 2.6 CONCLUSION ......................................................................................................................... 61 CHAPTER 3 ‐ RECENT THINKING ON THE AVAILABILITY OF NON‐RENEWABLE RESOURCES ................ 63 3.1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 63 3.2 THE INCREASING ROLE OF EMERGING ECONOMIES............................................................. 63 3.2.1 Closing the development gap ......................................................................................
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