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1 December 2016 Europe/United Kingdom Equity Research Specialty Hardline Dixons Carphone Plc (DC.L) Rating OUTPERFORM Price (29 Nov 16, p) 335.40 INITIATION Target price (p) 420.00 Market Cap (£ m) 3,864.7 Enterprise value (£ m) 4,147.0 Standing tall – initiate at Outperform *Stock ratings are relative to the coverage universe in each analyst's or each team's respective sector. ■ Initiating with an Outperform rating and a target price of 420p. Despite ¹Target price is for 12 months. robust LFL growth and profit delivery this year, shares are down 33% year to Research Analysts date on investor concerns about weak sterling and demand next year. We Pradeep Pratti, CFA argue that Dixons Carphone will pass through higher costs, while demand is 44 207 888 5043 likely to remain stable and the flux in the industry should help the company [email protected] gain market share in the UK and Europe. With additional benefits from Simon Irwin planned synergies, the ongoing store optimisation and focus on Services, we 44 20 7888 0320 [email protected] estimate the group can deliver 3-4% top-line growth, +60bps EBIT margin and strong cash generation over the next four years. On 10.5x 12-month P/E, we think the shares are discounting no growth and a 4% terminal margin; we view this as overly pessimistic. ■ Consolidation still playing out. The electricals retail sector is still right- sizing, and our analysis of key UK independent retailers highlights the sub- scale nature of the many operators and the likelihood of further consolidation. Europe is in flux with the Darty-FNAC merger this year and the upcoming separation of Metro's consumer electronics business which we believe can benefit Dixons Carphone. ■ Services strategy to drive growth. We also think Connected World Services, which now has a few material contracts under its belt (including the Sprint joint venture in the US), and B2C services, can drive more than one- third of EBIT growth to 2020E. ■ Catalysts and Risks. We expect 1H results (14 December) to highlight strength in electricals demand. We forecast 7% UK/Ireland like-for-like sales and £138m PBT (+14% Y/Y). Key risks include the UK macro outlook, further sterling weakness and increased competition from pure-play operators. ■ Valuation. We derive our 12-month target price of 420p using equally- weighted discounted cash flow (5.0% terminal EBIT margin and 8.5% weighted average cost of capital) and multiples-based (11.5x 12-month P/E) methodologies. We expect 7-8% 4-year EPS CAGR and 3% dividend yield to support a share-price recovery. Share price performance Financial and valuation metrics 5 0 0 Year 4/16A 4/17E 4/18E 4/19E Revenue (£ m) 9,738.0 10,319.5 10,541.3 10,848.3 4 0 0 EBITDA (£ m) 645.0 691.8 723.9 760.1 Pre-tax profit adjusted (£ m) 447.00 487.37 515.03 550.76 3 0 0 CS EPS (adj.) (p) 28.37 30.98 32.74 35.45 2 0 0 Prev. EPS (p) Jan - 1 5 Ju l- 1 5 Jan - 1 6 Ju l- 1 6 ROIC (%) 11.3 11.4 11.6 12.1 P/E (adj.) (x) 11.8 10.8 10.2 9.5 D C.L FT SE A LL SH A RE IN D EX P/E rel. (%) 73.6 64.3 72.2 74.0 The price relative chart measures performance against the EV/EBITDA (x) 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.1 FTSE ALL SHARE INDEX which closed at 3686.8 on Dividend (04/17E, £) 10.61 Net debt/equity (04/17E,%) 9.3 29/11/16 Dividend yield (04/17E,%) 3.2 Net debt (04/17E, £ m) 282.2 On 29/11/16 the spot exchange rate was £.85/Eu 1.- BV/share (04/17E, £) 2.7 IC (04/17E, £ m) 3,330.0 Eu.94/US$1 Free float (%) 81.4 EV/IC (04/17E, (x) 1.2 Performance 1M 3M 12M Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse estimates Absolute (%) 6.6 -11.1 -31.2 Relative (%) 8.7 -11.1 -36.1 DISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. 1 December 2016 Dixons Carphone Plc (DC.L) Price (29 Nov 2016): 335.40p; Rating: OUTPERFORM; Target Price: 420.00p; Analyst: Pradeep Pratti Income statement (£ m) 4/16A 4/17E 4/18E 4/19E Company Background Revenue 9,738 10,320 10,541 10,848 Dixons Carphone is Europe's leading specialist electricals and EBITDA 645 692 724 760 telecommunications retailer with presence in 11 countries. Depr. & amort. (177) (184) (193) (197) EBIT 468 507 531 563 Blue/Grey Sky Scenario Net interest exp. (21) (20) (16) (12) Associates (4) 0 5 15 PBT 447 487 515 551 Income taxes (110) (122) (129) (138) Profit after tax 337 366 386 413 Minorities - - - - Preferred dividends - - - - Associates & other 0 0 0 0 Net profit 337 366 386 413 Other NPAT adjustments (176) (53) (30) (30) Reported net income 161 313 356 383 Cash flow (£ m) 4/16A 4/17E 4/18E 4/19E EBIT 468 507 531 563 Net interest (21) (20) (16) (12) Cash taxes paid (56) (104) (119) (128) Change in working capital (97) (96) (26) 3 Other cash and non-cash items 100 98 125 114 Cash flow from operations 394 386 495 541 CAPEX (221) (243) (215) (205) Free cashflow to the firm 330 309 417 460 Acquisitions (50) 0 0 0 Divestments 24 0 0 0 Other investment/(outflows) (9) (15) (17) 0 Cash flow from investments (256) (258) (232) (205) Net share issue/(repurchase) (5) 0 0 (50) Our Blue Sky Scenario (p) 560.00 Dividends paid (106) (125) (135) (146) Our Blue Sky scenario assumes robust demand in the industry in Issuance (retirement) of debt 25 0 (50) (50) 2017, coupled with a strong pass-through of higher prices and a Cashflow from financing (117) (145) (201) (258) sustained improvement in EBIT margins. We model 2017 sales Changes in net cash/debt (9) (17) 112 128 +5%, assume a 6% terminal EBIT margin in our DCF, which is +110bps higher than our forecast margin for 2016/17E and also a Net debt at start 256 265 282 170 terminal growth rate that is 1% higher. In our peer multiples, we Change in net debt 9 17 (112) (128) assume the retail sector re-rates back to c.14x 12m PER. Net debt at end 265 282 170 42 Balance sheet (£ m) 4/16A 4/17E 4/18E 4/19E Our Grey Sky Scenario (p) 290.00 Assets Our Grey Sky Scenario assumes a sharp shock to electricals and Total current assets 2,322 2,500 2,632 2,779 mobile demand in the UK and overall sales 5% lower Y/Y. We also Total assets 6,929 7,215 7,408 7,591 assume margin pressures due to higher product costs as a result of Liabilities weak sterling. In our DCF we model terminal margin of 4%, 90bps Total current liabilities 2,491 2,604 2,656 2,728 lower than our base case forecast for 2016/17E and no terminal Total liabilities 4,069 4,167 4,139 4,135 growth. Also we assume the overall retail sector derates further and Total equity and liabilities 6,929 7,215 7,408 7,591 use an 8x earnings multiple in our peer valuation. Per share 4/16A 4/17E 4/18E 4/19E No. of shares (wtd avg.) (mn) 1,188 1,180 1,180 1,165 Share price performance CS EPS (adj.) (p) 28.37 30.98 32.74 35.45 Prev. EPS (p) 500 Dividend (p) 9.75 10.61 11.47 12.49 Free cash flow per share (p) 27.78 26.22 35.36 39.51 Key ratios and valuation 4/16A 4/17E 4/18E 4/19E 400 Growth/Margin (%) Sales growth (%) 18.0 6.0 2.1 2.9 300 EBIT growth (%) 17.0 8.4 4.7 6.0 Net income growth (%) 18.2 8.5 5.7 6.9 200 EPS growth (%) (1.2) 9.2 5.7 8.3 EBITDA margin (%) 6.6 6.7 6.9 7.0 Jan- 15 Jul- 15 Jan- 16 Jul- 16 EBIT margin (%) 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.2 Pretax profit margin (%) 4.6 4.7 4.9 5.1 DC.L FTSE ALL SHARE INDEX Net income margin (%) 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.8 Valuation 4/16A 4/17E 4/18E 4/19E The price relative chart measures performance against the FTSE ALL SHARE EV/Sales (x) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 INDEX which closed at 3686.8 on 29/11/16 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.1 On 29/11/16 the spot exchange rate was £.85/Eu 1.- Eu.94/US$1 EV/EBIT (x) 8.8 8.2 7.6 6.9 Dividend yield (%) 2.91 3.16 3.42 3.72 P/E (x) 11.8 10.8 10.2 9.5 Credit ratios (%) 4/16A 4/17E 4/18E 4/19E Net debt/equity (%) 9.3 9.3 5.2 1.2 Net debt to EBITDA (x) 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 Interest coverage ratio (x) 22.3 25.4 33.2 46.9 Source: FTI, Company data, Thomson Reuters, Credit Suisse Securities (EUROPE) LTD.
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