Cell Phone Use on the Roads in 2002 December 2004 6
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U.S. Department of Transportation National Highway Traffic Safety Administration DOT HS 809 580 December 2004 Technical Report Cell Phone Use on the Roads in 2002 Published By: National Center for Statistics and Analysis This document is available to the public from the National Technical Information Service, Springfield, VA 22161 Technical Report Documentation Page 2. Government Accession No. 3. Recipient's Catalog No. 1. Report No. DOT HS 809 580 4. Title and Subtitle 5. Report Date Cell Phone Use on the Roads in 2002 December 2004 6. Performing Organization Code NPO-101 7. Author(s) 8. Performing Organization Report No. Glassbrenner, Donna, Ph.D. 9. Performing Organization Name and Address 10. Work Unit No. (TRAIS) Mathematical Analysis Division, National Center for Statistics and Analysis National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 11. Contract or Grant No. U.S. Department of Transportation DTNH22-00-07001 NPO-101, 400 Seventh Street, S.W. Washington, D.C. 20590 12. Sponsoring Agency Name and Address 13. Type of Report and Period Covered Mathematical Analysis Division, National Center for Statistics and Analysis NHTSA Technical Report National Highway Traffic Safety Administration U.S. Department of Transportation 14. Sponsoring Agency Code NPO-101, 400 Seventh Street, S.W. Washington, D.C. 20590 15. Supplementary Notes Data collection, estimation, and variance estimation for NHTSA’s National Occupant Protection Use Survey were conducted by Westat, Inc under the direction of NHTSA’s National Center for Statistics and Analysis under federal contract number DTNH22-00-07001. Also we thank Mike Goodman and Julie Barker in NHTSA’s Office of Advanced Safety Research, and Paul Tremont in the Office of Research and Technology for helpful comments. Abstract With the increasing popularity of cellular phones and public concern about the safety of using phones while driving, there has been increased interest in tracking the incidence of driver cell phone use. This report presents the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) most recent results on this topic, which come from NHTSA’s National Occupant Protection Use Survey (NOPUS). The survey estimated that during daylight hours, drivers of cars, trucks, vans, and sport utility vehicles used hand-held phones during 4% of their driving time in 2002, up from 3% in 2000. These results were obtained by observing actual traffic. In fact the NOPUS is currently the only source of probability-based observed national data on driver cell phone use. While the NOPUS percentages are small, they indicate a substantial and growing phenomenon, translating into approximately 600,000 drivers on the road at any given time between 8 AM and 6 PM using hand-held phones in 2002, up from 400,000 in 2000. When combined with data from other surveys on hands-free use, NOPUS that nearly finds that 900,000 drivers on the road at any given daylight time are using cellular phones in some manner, whether by holding the phone or using a hands-free device. However, while NOPUS finds an increase in hand-held use behind the wheel, the survey data indicate a shift toward the use of hands-free devices. The growth in hands-free use while driving that occurred between 2000 and 2002 outpaced the growth in hand-held phones (a 33% gro wth for hand-held phones, compared to 100% for hands-free). NOPUS first observed cell phone use in 2000, and so the data in this report represent some of the first direct measurements of this form of driver distraction on the road. 17. Key Words 18. Distribution Statement cellular phones, wireless phones, driver distraction, Document is available to the public through the National Technical observational surveys, hand-held phones, hands-free Information Service, Springfield, VA 22161 devices http//:www.ntis.gov 19. Security Classif. (of this report) 20. Security Classif. (of this page) 21. No. of Pages 22. Price Unclassified Unclassified 46 Form DOT F 1700.7 (8-72) Reproduction of completed page authorized TABLE of CONTENTS Tables and Figures..................................................................... iii 1. Executive Summary............................................................ 4 1.1 More Drivers Are Holding Phones ..................................................................................... 4 1.2 Over Half a Million Drivers Are Holding Phones At Any Given Time............................. 5 1.3 The Shift Toward Hands-Free Use ..................................................................................... 6 1.4 Other Major Findings of the 2002 Survey.......................................................................... 7 2. Background: A Primer on Wireless Phone Technology. .... 9 3. Driver Cell Phone Use Nationwide................................... 12 3.1 The NOPUS National Estimate ........................................................................................ 12 3.2 Estimates of the Use of All Wireless Phones.................................................................... 13 3.3 Comparing the NOPUS Findings to Results of Other Surveys ........................................ 13 4. Subnational Estimates....................................................... 15 4.1 Changes in Age Patterns ................................................................................................... 15 4.2 Males Use Phones Hands-Free Slightly More than Women............................................ 15 4.3 Increased Use in Urban Areas........................................................................................... 18 4.4 Increases in Pickup Trucks, in the West, and Among Minorities..................................... 18 4.5 Additional Hand-Held Estimates ...................................................................................... 19 5. NOPUS Survey Methodology........................................... 25 5.1 The Basic Survey Methodology........................................................................................ 25 5.2 Improvements in 2002 ...................................................................................................... 26 5.3 What Does NOPUS Consider “Using a Hand-Held Phone”?........................................... 26 5.3 Design Aspects that Impact Data...................................................................................... 27 5.4 Assessing Significance...................................................................................................... 27 6. Derived Estimates............................................................. 28 6.1 Data Sources ..................................................................................................................... 29 6.2 The Extent of Hand-Held Versus Hands-Free Use........................................................... 30 6.3 Trip Characteristics........................................................................................................... 34 i National Center for Statistics and Analysis, 400 Seventh St., S.W., Washington, DC 20590 6.4 Applying these Estimates to NOPUS ............................................................................... 37 6.4.1 Extrapolating NOPUS to Estimates of All Cell Phones .................................................. 37 6.4.2 The Numbers of Vehicles with Drivers on Phones.......................................................... 39 6.4.3 Relating Phone Use to Trip Length and Duration........................................................... 40 7. References......................................................................... 42 ii National Center for Statistics and Analysis, 400 Seventh St., S.W., Washington, DC 20590 Tables and Figures Figure 1: Percent of Drivers Holding Phones ................................................................................. 4 Figure 2: The Number of Drivers Holding Phones At Any Given Time........................................ 5 Figure 3: Percent of Drivers Using Phones, by Means of Use ....................................................... 5 Figure 4: Number of Drivers on Phones At Any Given Time, By Means of Use ......................... 6 Figure 5: Hand-Held Phone Use By Select Characteristics............................................................ 7 Table 1: Cell Phone Use Nationwide............................................................................................ 12 Figure 6: Cell Phone Use Nationwide .......................................................................................... 12 Figure 7: The Growth in Cellular Phone Subscribers................................................................... 13 Figure 8: Growth in the Use of Wireless Devices ........................................................................ 14 Table 2: The Usual Means of Cell Phone Use for Male and Female Drivers .............................. 16 Table 3: Driver Cell Phone Use in 2002 by Gender and Means of Use ....................................... 16 Table 4: Daylight Driving Time in 2002, by Gender.................................................................... 17 Table 5: Time Spent by Men and Women Driving While on the Phone in 2002......................... 17 Figure 9: Driver Cell Phone Use, by Urbanization, Region, and Time of Day and Week........... 19 Figure 10: Hand-Held Use, by Gender, Race, and Vehicle Type................................................. 19 Table 6: Driver Hand-Held Cell Phone Use During Daylight Hours by Select Characteristics... 20 Table 7: Driver Hand-Held