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Dark Blue Template for Slide Presentations Coastal and Marine Geology Program and the National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards U.S. Department of the Interior U.S. Geological Survey USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program · Regional Cooperative Studies · Coral Reef Studies · National Coastal Change Hazards USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program Building National Capacity to Anticipate and Respond to Coastal Change Hazards Storms, Chronic Erosion and Climate Change - Geologic, Geomorphic and Oceanographic Observations - Research - Models, Forecasts, and Assessments - Delivery Mechanisms USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program Regional Cooperative Studies - Fire Island Coastal Erosion - DelMarVa Coastal Erosion Shoreline Position at 8000 years B.P. - Gulf of Mexico Barrier Island Evolution 10 km - California Coastal Change - Florida/Caribbean Corals - Hawaii/Pacific Corals - Puget Sound Restoration Integration of Geologic and Shoreline Structure and Change Oceanographic FIGURE 4: Long Island subregion Montauk 0 10 20 KILOMETERS 0 Deployments Point Erosion Accretion Erosion Accretion 0 10 20 MILES Montauk Point 0 Montauk Point $ 20 20 40 40 Shinnecock Inlet 60 60 Shinnecock Inlet Shinnecock Inlet Westhampton Westhampton Westhampton Westhampton Beach Island 80 ) m Westhampton Island Beach Beach Island Beach 80 Westhampton Moriches Inlet k Moriches Inlet Moriches Inlet ore ( ore h 100 100 along s along Fire Island Fire Fire Island Fire Fire Island ance t 120 120 Dis Democrat Point Democrat Point Fire Island Inlet Fire Island Inlet Fire Island Inlet 140 140 Gilgo Beach Gilgo Beach Gilgo Beach Jones Beach Island Jones Beach Jones Island Island 160 Beach Jones 160 Jones Inlet Seafloor Mapping Jones Inlet Jones Inlet Long Beach Island y East Rockaway Inlet a y Long Beach Long Island y Long Beach Long Island w a 180 a a East Rockaway Inlet East Rockaway Inlet k w 180 w c a a o k k R c c o Breezy Point Breezy Point o Breezy Point R Rockaway Inlet R Rockaway Inlet Rockaway Comparison of modeled and observed Inlet -10 0 10 20 30 40 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20 Long-term change (m/yr) Short -term change (m/yr) sediment thickness change Modeling Long-term and hurricane-driven shoreline change USGS Coastal and Marine Geology Program Caribbean Coral Reef Studies Reef history, geomorphology, geochemistry, calcification rates Regional studies indicate increase in reef calcification in Dry Tortugas National Park, while loss at all other locations. National Assessment of Coastal Change Hazards Long-term cliff erosion Pacifica, CA Goal: Identify, quantify, and model the vulnerability of the U.S. shorelines to coastal change hazards Ongoing Tasks Extreme erosion during Hurricane Irene Impacts of severe storms & hurricanes Rodanthe, NC . Long-term shoreline change . Coastal vulnerability to sea level rise Long-term Shoreline Change • A consistent national database of shoreline Hog Island, VA positions and rates of change • Consistent methods applied nationwide Gulf of Mexico 2004, 2014 SoutheasternDate range: U.S. 2005, 2014 • Combine modern data (i.e. lidar – light Northeastern1852 - 1997 U.S. 2010 detection and ranging) with historical data Hawaii 2012 Pacific NW 2013 (maps, aerial photographs) AK North Slope 2014 • Provide periodic updates • Analyses of geology and processes in change trends Example: Data and Approach: New England and Mid-Atlantic . Mid-1800s to 1960s: NOAA topographic survey maps . 1960s to 1990s: aerial photographs . 1997 - recent: lidar (light detection and ranging) . Coastal change rates calculated for long-term (~150 yr) and shorter-term (~25-30 yr) . Over 21,000 measurements at 50 m intervals along the coast Hapke et al., 2011 76°W 75°W 74°W 73°W 72°W 71°W 70°W 69°W 44°N Maine 1 Regional Vermont New Hampshire 43°N ´ Studies 2 New York Massachusetts 42°N Rhode Island 3 Connecticut Pennsylvania 5 41°N 4 New Jersey 6 40°N 7 EXPLANATION Analysis Subregion 1 New England North 2 Greater Boston 3 Cape Cod 39°N Delaware 8 New England New 4 Massachusetts Islands 5 New England South 6 Long Island Maryland 9 tic 7 New Jersey North n 38°N tla 8 New Jersey South A - id M 9 Delmarva North 10 Delmarva South/Southern Virginia Atlantic Ocean 37°N 0 50 100 KILOMETERS 10 Virginia 0 50 100 MILES Regional Studies 76°30'W 75°W 73°30'W 72°W 70°30'W 69°W VT ME ´ New England 43°30'N -0.4 m/yr +0.1 m/yr Long-term (~150-yr) and short- -0.2 m/yr NH -0.4 m/yr NY -0.09 m/yr term (~25 yr) rates of shoreline MA +0.1 m/yr 42°N Mid-Atlantic change RI -0.6 m/yr CT -0.4 m/yr - continuous, comparable -0.3 m/yr +0.3 m/yr NJ -0.2 m/yr NY -0.09 m/yr -1.4 m/yr 40°30'N -0.8 m/yr PA +0.08 m/yr +0.8 m/yr -0.6 m/yr +0.5 m/yr EXPLANATION 39°N DE +0.8 m/yr -0.1 m/yr long-term rate +0.2 m/yr -0.1 m/yr short-term rate MD long-term eroding (red) -0.5 m/yr or accreting (green) -0.8 m/yr short-term eroding (red) 37°30'N or accreting (green) - 2.9 m/yr - 2.7 m/yr VA Atlantic Ocean 0 50 100 MILES NC 0 50 100 KILOMETERS 36°N Hapke et al., 2011 Regional Studies • USGS Open-file reports • All data and analyses accessible on Coastal Change Hazards Portal Localized Studies Hapke and Henderson, 2015 Localized Studies Hog Island, Virginia Hog Island Change rate (m/yr) Date range: 1852 - 1997 Hog Island Atlantic Ocean -20 -8 0 8 Change rate (m/yr) Google Earth Coastal erosion is influenced by geologic processes • Data • Knowledge • Tools • DSAS • ROMS Forecasting Coastal Erosion Vulnerability to Storms . Over a decade of research on hurricane-induced coastal change . Development of models for forecasting future impacts . Implementation and sharing with stakeholders Nor’Ida(2009) Nags Head, NC Beach Erosion Dune Erosion Overwash Inundation Components of Coastal TOTAL Water Levels Function of offshore waves and beach slope surge + tides + wave runup surge + tides mean sea level Beach Erosion Dune Erosion 0 Overwash Inundation Sallenger 2000 Storm Impact Prediction Models MAXIMUM Waves & WaterForcing Levels Response Probability low Last Measured Topo/Bathy high medium Successful prediction of inundation: USGS models indicated a 61% likelihood of inundation at this location on Fire Island. Fire Island National NOAA imagery shows a breach in the island. Seashore, NY EROSION Probability of coastal change Likely As likely as not Unlikely Forecasted Vulnerability • In a category 1 hurricane, 71% of the beaches in the Gulf are very likely to experience overwash. Because of higher dunes on the Atlantic coast, only 36% of beaches are very likely to overwash. • In a category 4 landfall, almost all of the Gulf and Atlantic beaches are very likely to overwash. http://olga.er.usgs.gov/hurricane_erosion_hazards/ Building and Testing an Operational Model for Total Water Levels in the U.S USGS-NOAA: Operational Total Water Level Model Operational forecasts of total water levels can warn local officials of potential overwash, such as that observed along HWY 12 in Kitty Hawk. (USGS collaboration with NWS and NCEP) Photo credit: Dare County Emergency Management Predicting sea-level rise impacts • Bayesian Network uses climate forcing • Provides scientific knowledge context and geologic constraints for decision makers • Prediction and uncertainty maps • Can use to focus research resources identify where better information is needed (input data, process understanding) Probability of coastal erosion >1 m/yr (Gutierrez et al., 2011; USGCRP NCADAC report, in review) Coastal Change Hazards Portal • Products are easily searchable and shareable • Interactive tools integrate across time, space, and hazards • Others can build products that support their particular requirements USGS shoreline change research in Puerto Rico • Systematic study island-wide • Focused studies in Rincón • Both provide a basis for future work • 1901-1987 • Update of earlier focused work (1994) • Digital data, but not accessible • Digital data, fully accessible • Can be 'rescued' • Uses shoreline change to pose geologic and oceanographic questions for management applications Rincón case study • Shoreline change patterns may be driven by waves, currents and amount of sediment (including dredging of marina) • Can use scientific information to identify viable management responses http://marine.usgs.gov/coastalchangehazards/ http://marine.usgs.gov/coastalchangehazardsportal/.
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