ENVIRONMENT SCAN : 16-29 FEB 2020

CHINA (Geo-Strat, Geo-Politics & Geo-Economics) Brig RK Bhutani (Retd)

US Sees No Material Impact from Virus on US-China Trade Deal - for Now. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told Reuters he does not expect the corona virus outbreak to have a material impact on the Phase 1 US-China trade deal, although that could change as more data becomes available in coming weeks.

Finance officials from the world's 20 largest economies said on Sunday (Feb 23) they would keep a close watch on the fast-spreading outbreak, but stopped short of identifying it as downside risk to the global economy.

Mnuchin, in an interview with Reuters late on Sunday, cautioned against jumping to conclusions about the impact of what he called a "human tragedy" on the global economy, or on companies' supply chain decisions, saying it was simply too soon to know.

China was focused on the virus for now, he said, but Washington still expected Beijing to live up to its commitments to buy more US products and services under the trade deal. "I don't expect that this will have any ramifications on Phase 1. Based on everything that we know, and where the virus is now, I don't expect that it's going to be material," he said. "Obviously that could change as the situation develops. Within the next few more weeks, we'll all have a better assessment as there's more data around the rate of the virus spreading."

Mnuchin acknowledged the outbreak could also delay the start of negotiations on deepening the trade deal with Beijing and reaching a Phase 2 agreement, but said he was not worried about that at this point.

In a separate news conference, he said there could be some short-term impact on supply chains, but cautioned against the idea that it could increase concerns about globalization. Big companies were always assessing risks and adjusting supply chains, he added. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/business/us-sees-no-material-impact-coronavirus-us- china-trade-deal-12465298

China’s US$62 Billion Belt and Road Project in Pakistan Risks Becoming Corridor to Nowhere. Almost seven years after the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was established, less than one-third of announced projects have been completed.

Gwadar port is the last stop on a planned US$62 billion corridor connecting China’s landlocked westernmost province to the Arabian Sea. Plans originally called for a seaport, roads, railways, pipelines, dozens of factories and the largest airport in Pakistan. But, almost seven years after the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) was established, there’s little evidence of that vision being realized. The site of the new airport, which was supposed to have been completed with Chinese funding more than three years ago, is a fenced-off area of scrub and dun-colored sand.

The factories have yet to materialize on a stretch of beach along the bay south of the airport. And traffic at Gwadar’s tiny, three-berth port is sparse. A Pakistan Navy frigate is the only ship docked there during a recent visit, and there’s no sign of the sole scheduled weekly cargo run from Karachi.

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Less than one-third of announced CPEC projects have been completed, totaling about US$19 billion, according to government statements. Pakistan bears much of the blame. It has repeatedly missed construction targets as it ran out of money; it got a US$6 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last year, the country’s 13th since the late 1980s. Two successive prime ministers have been jailed on corruption charges. And the Baloch Liberation Army’s desire for a separate homeland in Balochistan province, where Gwadar is located, has made life there uneasy. In May, militants stormed the city’s only luxury hotel, shooting up the white-marbled lobby and killing five people.

China is scaling back its ambitions, not just in Pakistan but around the world. Its economic growth has slowed to the lowest rate in three decades, inflation is rising and the country has been feeling the effects of a trade war with the US. The picture is getting even darker as a corona virus epidemic that originated in central China threatens to cause further delays and cutbacks. The biggest constraint for China now is its own economy.

In a number of countries, projects have been cancelled, downsized or scrutinized:-

(a) Malaysia renegotiated the terms of a rail link being built by China and scrapped US$3 billion of planned pipelines.

(b) In Kenya, a court halted construction last year on a US$2 billion power plant financed by China.

(c) And in Sri Lanka, new leaders said they want to regain control of a port in Hambantota that was leased to a Chinese company for 99 years when the previous government could not pay back a loan.

That takeover sparked concern in many belt and road countries that China’s largesse comes with the risk of ceding critical infrastructure. And it has increased wariness about the price of indebtedness to China, which puts at least eight nations, including Pakistan, at high risk of debt distress.

All that could result in shaving hundreds of billions of dollars off an estimated US$1 trillion of planned belt and road spending, according to a September report by law firm Baker McKenzie. While the value of signed projects increased last year, data from China’s Ministry of Commerce show actual spending stalled at US$75 billion in 2019 after falling 14 per cent the previous year. Total spending from the beginning of 2014, soon after President Xi announced the initiative, through November 2019 is US$337 billion, government figures show, far short of China’s ambitious goals.

A free-trade zone was established in Gwadar in 2015, and officials say nine or 10 companies, including a Chinese steelmaker and a Pakistani producer of edible oils, have signed up. But there are no signs of any factories operating. An additional 30 are targeted for the Free Zone’s Phase II, closer to the site of the new airport, officials say, and US$400 million has been invested so far. Even if Gwadar weren’t under threat of violence and had sufficient power and water to build and operate 40 factories, it does not have enough people to work in them. The city’s population, mostly fishermen and their families, is about one-fifth that of Washington’s. A proposal for a project called China-Pak Hills envisages a gated community with a “Hong Kong financial district” and luxury housing for 500,000 Chinese professionals who could move to Gwadar and provide a labour force by 2022 – an influx that wouldn’t sit well with either Baloch separatists or the Pakistani 3 government, according to Asad Sayeed, an economist at the Collective for Social Science Research in Karachi.

The CPEC project was intended to reduce oil and gas routes from the Middle East by thousands of miles, a way to cut overland into western China instead of going thousands of miles around South Asia and Southeast Asia by ship. Pakistan was supposed to get 2.3 million jobs and a 2.5 percentage-point boost to its gross domestic product. The deal, negotiated by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and touted in a 2017 communique by his successor Shahid Khaqan Abbasi after Sharif was jailed on corruption charges, called for the corridor to start taking shape by 2020. It was described as a pilot project, a model for belt and road countries around the world.

On a visit to Beijing in October, Khan assured Chinese officials that CPEC plans are proceeding. But with Pakistan’s budget maxed out and austerity imposed by the IMF, it is clear there will not be any big, new projects and unclear how many of the current ones can be finished, says CSIS’s Hillman. Still, both Pakistan and China pledged during Khan’s visit “to speedily execute the CPEC so that its growth potential can be fully realised,” according to an official communiqué. Full realization may mean figuring out how much can be built to save face, provide some benefit to both sides and declare success. An update on the project from Pakistan’s ambassador to Beijing, published in Chinese state media last year, said 11 projects had been completed in the past five years and another 11 were underway, with total spending of US$18.9 billion. It said an additional 20 were planned, without giving amounts, details or a time frame. There’s no longer any mention of the original US$62 billion pledged

Comments. Though China and Pakistan both deny any military intentions, Gwadar could be a stopping point on the way from Sri Lanka through the Maldives to Djibouti, where China has built its first military base on the Horn of Africa. China’s plans for the Pakistan corridor also include development in Xinjiang province, where it has attempted to curb unrest. If China’s interests were purely economic, says economist Sayeed, it could have helped expand the port of Karachi, already connected to the highway from China, instead of seeking to build new roads through desolate, dusty and dangerous Balochistan.

According to Nadege Rolland, senior fellow at the Washington-based National Bureau of Asian Research. “My hunch is there will not be big splashes of money anymore,” she says. “The investments were only an incentive.”China’s ultimate objective, she says, “is not to build connectivity but to increase Beijing’s political and strategic influence.” This means that even if belt and road spending ends up being a third of what was originally forecast, China may still have got its money’s worth. It will have broadened its influence in countries that are potential providers of natural resources, as well as future markets, and gained allies in international arenas such as the United Nations at a time when the US is pulling back.

(https://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south-asia/article/3064849/chinas-us62-billion-belt-and-road- project-pakistan-risks)

IOR, ANC AND INDO-PACIFIC Capt (IN) KK Agnihotri

Chinese Ship Carrying ‘Dual Use’ Items for Pakistan Detained at Kandla Port. Indian Customs intercepted and detained a Hong Kong registered Chinese ship named Da Cui Yun, on 03 Feb 2020, for wrongly declaring an autoclave, which can possibly be used in manufacture process of ballistic , as an industrial dryer. The ship bound 4 for Port Qasim in Karachi, is undergoing a detailed inspection at Kandla Port in Gujarat. The ship, had earlier left Jiangyin port on the Yangtze River in China’s Jiangsu province on 17 Jan 2020, and made a scheduled stoppage at Kandla for offloading some equipment. DRDO, which has been examining the ship, sent a second team of nuclear scientists in mid February to check the large 18x4-metre autoclave on board.

Comments. Detention of this ship has been brought to the notice of the highest levels of national security and intelligence establishment; as it has revived the specter of nuclear proliferation attempts between China and its all-weather friend, Pakistan. A similar incident had occurred at the height of the 1999 Kargil war when a North Korean ship Ku Wol San, was seized at Kandla. The Pakistan-bound ship had wrongly declared components, metal casings and manuals as water purification equipment.

In the current case, based on the findings of DRDO missile scientists, Custom authorities will charge the 166.5x27.4 meter 28,341 ton vessel for violations of Special Chemicals, Organisms, Materials, Equipment and Technologies (Scomet) export regulations. Port Qasim near Karachi, is the base of Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (Suparco), which is responsible for Pakistan ballistic missile programme.

The autoclave found on the Chinese ship – a pressure chamber to carry out various industrial and scientific processes - has been prima facie certified as a ‘dual-use’ item, which means it can be used for both, civilian and military purposes. For military applications, industrial autoclave is required for manufacturing sheets of silica under controlled temperature and pressure, which can then be used as composite lining for the solid-fuel ballistic missiles. The ballistic missile is propelled by a solid-fuel-based booster in its critical Phase I. For this, the solid fuel is placed in a steel alloy casing, which needs a composite material liner to withstand high pressure and high temperatures during launch.

Indian security officials are concerned because the nuclear nexus between Pakistan and China dates back to 1989, when Islamabad signed a deal with Beijing to purchase 34 solid-fuel M-11 ballistic missiles. The M-11s, which can deliver a 500kg payload over 300km, are at the core of Pakistan’s ballistic missile capability, with all its other delivery platforms being its derivatives.

Source:https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/karachi-bound-ship-held-in-kandla-over-cargo- that-can-be-used-in-missile-launch/story-yitIfsajL08Vv3Mi9x3RhK.html

US Navy Ship Conducts Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS) Near Islands in South China Sea. The US Navy sailed a warship near contested Spratly Islands in 5 the South China Sea on 25 Jan 2020, in its first freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) of 2020. USS Montgomery, an advanced littoral combat ship, passed near the Chinese- held Fiery Cross Reef, thereby asserted its ‘navigational rights and freedom’ in the Spratly Islands. Chinese PLA’s Southern Theater Command said on 28 Jan 20, that its air and naval forces had ‘expelled’ a US warship that had sailed near the Islands; and stated that the US warship’s ‘intentional provocation during Spring Festival was done with ulterior motives.’ Two fighter bombers of PLA Navy conducted alert patrol missions on 25 Jan 20 in response to the Montgomery’s mission.

Comments. Fiery Cross reef has a 3,000-meter military-grade runway, Freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea by US Navy are considered to be a part of daily operations of US military forces in the region. The US Navy conducted nine FONOPs in the South China Sea in the year 2019. The Obama administration had authorized two FONOPs in 2015 and three in 2016. The program has escalated under the Trump administration, with the US Navy conducting six in 2017 and five in 2018. However, during Trump’s first two years in office, Navy transits of the Taiwan Strait dropped significantly from 12 in 2016 to five in 2017, then just three in 2018. The Taiwan Strait transits picked up again in 2019, with nine transits conducted through the year.

Source:https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/01/28/asia-pacific/us-navy-warship-disputed- islands-south-china-sea-first-2020/#.XkzOZNR97wc

MALAYSIA, JAPAN & KOREA Gp Capt Rajesh Bhandari

Malaysia’s Defence White Paper–All Talk, No Action?1 As per Air-lines on mid of Feb 2020, the Malaysian government has issued the country’s first Defence White Paper, even as longstanding plans to replace or upgrade aging equipment have yet again been postponed. The Royal Malaysian Air Force (RMAF) is especially a victim of the situation, which has been made worse by the political upheaval in 2018 when Malaysians voted to replace the allegedly corrupt establishment government with a new coalition headed by former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohammed, now 93 years old. The tension in the South China Sea is not overtly blamed on Chinese expansionism, although the White Paper refers to “overlapping sovereign claims,” which include some by Malaysia. The Army has armed Leonardo AW109 helicopters. The Navy has six Leonardo Super Lynx and armed

1https://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/defense/2020-02-06/malaysias-defence-white-paper-all- talk-no-action 6

Airbus AS355 helicopters. The White Paper calls for more “maritime mission helicopters,” to augment newer warships that are coming into service. A plan to upgrade the RMAF’s fleet of 28 fifty-year-old Sikorsky S-61 helicopters and transfer half of them to the Army for use as tactical transports has foundered, now that the entire fleet has been retired following an emergency landing last August. The White Paper is silent on a previously- stated Army requirement for attack helicopters. This was supposed to be met partly by six MD530Gs for which a contract was signed four years ago. None have been delivered. The long-delayed purchase has now apparently been abandoned. Manufacturer MD Helicopters says the fault lies with the intermediary company in Malaysia, with whom the Malaysian MoD actually contracted. The sore need for more maritime patrol aircraft will be partly met by the conversion of three of the RMAF’s seven CN235 transports by PTDI. For combat jets, two squadrons of MiG-29s have been retired, leaving just two squadrons each of Sukhoi Su30 MKMs and Hawks and one of F/A-18D Hornets. More Hornets are being sought secondhand. However, a stated requirement for a high-end multi-role combat aircraft (MRCA) led Western manufacturers into expensive, high-profile sales campaigns before Malaysia finally admitted there was no money for them. A plan to upgrade the Hawks has also been dropped. Instead, the RMAF has now drafted a requirement for a Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) that will also take over the fighter lead-in trainer (FLIT) from the Hawks and six MB-339s. The contenders are the KAI F/A-50, the HAL Tejas, the Leonardo M346, the Pakistani-Chinese JF-17, the Yak-130, and even the Saab Gripen, a hangover from the MRCA affair. A buy of 36 has been mentioned, and the LCA requirement may be clarified if a request for proposal is issued this year. For strategic transport, the RMAF remains the only export customer for the Airbus A400M airlifter.

Comments. Malaysia’s main security concern has been in the geographically separated eastern states of Sabah and Sarawak. The White Paper calls for more air defense, medium-range, and coastal-surveillance radars. The RMAF failed to identify the doomed MH370 airliner after it reversed course and flew over peninsular Malaysia en-route to its watery end. Deficiencies in procedures and training rather than equipment have been blamed in the paper. Three more air defense radars have been sought, although only one is funded and there is no mention of another key deficiency—airborne early warning (AEW) aircraft. The White Paper says that a National Defence Investment Plan will be developed to expand the local defense industry and “enhance research in defense science and technology. Malaysia spends under one percent of its GDP on defense and that is similar to Indonesia and a bit less than northern neighbor Thailand, however Singapore spends much more on defense, over three percent.

Troops in South Korea could Face Loss of Services as Governments Argue over Funding. 2 U.S. troops and their families would face a loss of services with the possible furlough of 9,000 South Korean civilians who work on bases, unless the long-running dispute over how much South Korea pays for the U.S. military presence is resolved, according to Pentagon officials. The issue is expected to be at the top of the agenda for a Pentagon meeting between Defense Secretary Mark Esper and South Korean Defense Minister JeongKyeong-doo recently in second week of Feb 2020. Pentagon chief spokesman Jonathan Hoffman said at a news briefing Wednesday that "We've got to work through the agreement for funding of forces, so that will obviously be a topic we will discuss," he said. "We're going to continue to negotiate and try to find a solution" while working against an April 1 deadline for furloughs, Hoffman added, but no matter the outcome "our forces will adapt" to maintain readiness. Last month, U.S. Forces Korea

2https://www.military.com/daily-news/2020/02/21/troops-south-korea-could-face-loss-services- governments-argue-over-funding.html 7

(USFK) sent out notices to the civilian workers that the cost-sharing agreement between the U.S. and South Korea had expired on Dec 31 and furloughs could occur on April 1 unless a new agreement is negotiated."Without the Republic of Korea's continued commitment to share the cost of employing our Korean National workforce, USFK will soon exhaust programmed funds available to pay their salaries and wages," the statement said. The cost-sharing dispute comes as USFK is taking extra precautions against the spread of the novel coronavirus. On Wednesday, Army Gen. Robert Abrams, USFK commander, announced that service members in South Korea who had attended the evangelical New World Church in Daegu over the previous 10 days would have to undergo a mandatory self-quarantine to monitor for symptoms of coronavirus. "We must protect the force and our community by maintaining our 'Fight Tonight' readiness," Abrams said in a statement. South Korean authorities have focused on the church and a hospital in the southern city of Daegu as possible sources of coronavirus infection. On Friday, South Korea reported the second death of a coronavirus patient, the country's Yonhap news agency reported. The Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) also reported 100 new cases of the novel coronavirus, bringing the total number to 204. Thus far, there have been no cases of coronavirus among the 28,500 U.S. troops or their family members in South Korea.

Comments. The Trump administration last summer began pressing Seoul for a huge increase in funding for the existing "special measures agreement" -- from about $900 million to $5 billion annually -- to offset the costs of maintaining about 28,500 U.S. troops on the peninsula. South Korea is a wealthy country and could and should pay more to help offset the cost of defense but U.S. officials suggested that the $5 billion demand is an opening bid to bargaining. There will certainly be an impact to both the service members and their families if furloughs occur for 9,000 civilians, who provide services ranging from fire dispatch and bus driving to staffing for hospitals, post offices, maintenance crews and administration. So if needed US have to prioritize services those workers provide.

WEST ASIA Gp Capt GD Sharma, VSM (Retd)

Refugees Crisis in the Middle East.3 In Syrian crisis, the last Bastian of rebels and Jihadist Groups is IDLIB which is border town of Syria and with Turkey in the North West of Syria. The province - along with parts of Hama, Latakia and Aleppo - is the last stronghold of the rebel and jihadist groups that have been trying to overthrow President Assad since 2011. Syrian army has launched offensive to take control of this territory. This has caused havoc and displaced the civilian population the vast majority of them women and children - have fled since the current government assault began in December. The Syrian effort is supported by Russian forces. In a recent incident Turkey even shot down two Russian fighters.

Some 900,000 people in northwest Syria have been displaced by conflict since Dec 1, 2019. As attacks move further north in Idlib, people are increasingly squeezed into a small area near the closed border with Turkey. Syria has created a safe zone along the Turkish- Syrian border to settle the refuges but, these are moving to turkey on their way to Europe though Greece. Europe obviously cannot take them after opening door to them due their effect in their population and social structure which they now realize has been severely impacted by them.

3 https://www.worldvision.org/refugees-news-stories/syrian-refugee-crisis-facts 8

(a) In 2016, Turkey and Europe entered in as per that Syrian refugee who arrived on Greek islands would be sent back to Turkey. In return Turkey received €6bn (£5.2bn; $6.7bn) in EU aid for migrants and refugees.

(b) For every Syrian person removed from Greece to Turkey, another would be resettled from Turkey to the EU.

(c) After the deal was agreed, the number of migrants arriving in Greece declined sharply.

Now after the Syrian offensive, the inflow of refugees has increased. Turkey is not prepared accommodate them and pushing them to Greece. Greece has closed the borders but still migrants try to get in. It has accused Turkey as a Trafficker.

European now questions why should they take the load of the refugees? Their culture does not match with their social fabric and threatens the society. The humanitarian crisis should be shared by their brethren too. Why do not Muslim countries take them in? A serious situation is building up and needs immediate solution.

IRAN, AFGHANISTAN, MALDIVES, PAKISTAN & SRI LANKA Brig Rajat Upreti

IRAN

At least 210 people in Iran have died as a result of the new coronavirus disease, sources in the country's health system have told BBC Persian. Most of the victims are from the capital, Tehran, and the city of Qom, where cases of Covid-19 first emerged. The figure is six times higher than the official death toll of 34 given by the health ministry earlier on Friday. Ministry spokesman Kianoush Jahanpour insisted it was being transparent and accused the BBC of spreading lies. It comes after a member of parliament for Qom accused the authorities of a cover-up and the US expressed concern that they may not be sharing information. Friday prayers in Tehran and 22 other cities were cancelled, and schools and universities closed. Thousands of Iranians have also been stranded inside and outside the country as many flights have been stopped to and from Iran.

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Comments. At midday on Friday, the Iranian health ministry reported eight new deaths related to Covid-19, increasing the official toll to 34. It also said 143 new cases had been detected, bringing the total to 388. President Hassan Rouhani has ruled out placing any cities or areas in quarantine, despite the head of the joint WHO-Chinese mission on Covid-19 saying such measures had helped "changed the course" of the outbreak in China. There has also been concern about the decision not to close the Shia Muslim shrine of Hazrat Masumeh in Qom, which is visited by millions of pilgrims every year. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-51673053?

Iran's conservatives will dominate the country's new parliament following an election marked by the lowest voter turnout in decades, according to state media. Two days after the polls closed, an Al Jazeera tally based on interior ministry results published on Sunday by state media said conservative candidates had secured at least 219 seats in the 290-strong parliament, also known as the Majlis. In the capital, Tehran, conservatives won all 30 seats, with former mayor and commander of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, topping the list. Before the election, Ghalibaf's conservative bloc formed a joint list with the ultra-conservative Paydari Front, or the Front of Islamic Revolution Stability. The Front is led by Morteza Agha Tehrani, a scholar and ultra-conservative politician who tends to advocate the principles that led to Iran's 1979 revolution while Ghalibaf has a reputation of being an ambitious technocrat. On Sunday, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the country's enemies had tried to "discourage" people from voting by exaggerating the threat of a new coronavirus but added that participation had been good. The disease has so far claimed the lives of at least eight people in Iran, while more than 40 cases have been confirmed in the country.

Comments. With 11 seats set to be contested in a second round in April, the new parliament will also comprise of at least 20 reformists and 35 independents. Five seats are guaranteed for the country's religious minorities: Zoroastrians, Jews, Assyrians, Chaldean Christians and Armenian Christians. According to the Ministry of Interior, voter turnout across the country was about 42.5 percent - the lowest since the revolution. In previous parliamentary elections, nationwide turnout exceeded 60 percent. In Tehran, the turnout stood at just 25 percent, down from previous votes when it averaged 50 percent. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/iran-conservatives-prevail-polls-marked-turnout-

AFGHANISTAN

The United States signed a deal with Taliban insurgents on Saturday that could pave the way toward a full withdrawal of foreign soldiers from Afghanistan and represent a step toward ending the 18-year-war in the nation. But while the agreement creates a path for the United States to gradually pull out of its longest war, many expect the talks to come between the Afghan sides may be much more complicated. The deal was signed in the Qatari capital Doha by U.S. special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad and Taliban political chief Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo on hand to witness the ceremony. The United States said it is committed to reducing the number of its troops in Afghanistan to 8,600 — from the current 13,000 — within 135 days of signing the deal, and working with its allies to proportionally reduce the number of coalition forces in Afghanistan over that period, if the Taliban adhere to their commitments. A full withdrawal of all U.S. and coalition forces would occur within 14 months of the deal getting signed, if the Taliban hold up their end of the deal, the joint statement said. “We are working to finally end America’s longest war and bring our troops back home,” said 10

U.S President Donald Trump in a White House statement. The accord represents a chance to make good on a longstanding promise to get troops out, as he seeks re- election in November. But security experts have also called it a foreign policy gamble that would give the Taliban international legitimacy. The Afghan government said it stood ready to negotiate and conclude a ceasefire with the Taliban, and it affirmed its support for the phased withdrawal of U.S. and coalition forces subject to the Taliban’s fulfillment of its commitments.

Comments. The war, which has killed tens of thousands of people, began when the United States launched attacks on Afghanistan just weeks after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on New York and Washington by the Afghanistan-based al Qaeda militant group. The next step will be for negotiators to work out an agreement for comprehensive ceasefire and the future governance of the country. Officials and experts say this will pose serious challenges as the Afghan government has until now been sidelined. Even before getting to talks with the Taliban, Afghanistan’s two main political rivals - Ghani and Chief Executive Abdullah Abdullah - must settle a dispute over which officials, opposition members and activists should negotiate with the insurgents. Under the deal, the Taliban wants 5,000 fighters to be released from Afghan-run jails, but it is not clear whether the Afghan government will agree. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-afghanistan-taliban/u-s-and-taliban-sign-troop-withdrawal- deal-now-

MALDIVES

Speaker of the Parliament and former president of Maldives Mohamed Nasheed has stated that India-assisted projects are 'not debt-traps'. Nasheed made the statement at a conference in Gujarat during his current official visit to neighbouring India. Speaking at the conference, Nasheed heavily praised India. Main-ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) has been maintaining strong ties with India after they began administration in 2018. The relationship between Maldives and India was strained before that, with then- President Yameen Abdul Gayyoom maintaining close bilateral ties with China. However, after President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih sworn into office in 2018, several development projects have been handed over to India, and the neighbouring nation has been extending their assistance to Maldives in different areas.

Comments. During the current administration, the most number of loans have been issued to the Maldives from India. Both the countries are reinvigorating their relationship in the backdrop of previous dispensations affinity to China. https://avas.mv/en/78885

Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdulla Shahid announced the Maldivian administration's decision to file a written declaration of intervention at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) at The Hague, in support of the persecuted Rohingya people. The minister made the declaration while addressing the 43rd Session of the United Nations Human Rights Council (UNHRC) in Geneva on Tuesday. In his statement, Minister Shahid noted that the government welcomed ICJ's ruling last month, which ordered Myanmar to "take all measures within its power” to protect the Rohingya from genocide. In the wake of Minister Shahid's announcement, the foreign ministry disclosed that renowned humanitarian lawyer Amal Clooney, will represent Maldives in the case before the ICJ. Clooney notably represented Maldives' former president, Mohamed Nasheed, following his conviction on terrorism charges during the previous administration.

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Comments. The decision to file a declaration of intervention at the ICJ is the latest move by the government of Maldives, which has repeatedly advocated for accountability against the persecution of the Rohingya people. Previously, the archipelago initiated a nationwide movement to aid the Rohingya, raising over MVR 18 million in funds. In addition to the Rohingya, Minister Shahid again raised Maldives' concern for the plight of Palestinians, reiterating the island nation's support for "their inalienable right to self-determination". https://edition.mv/news/15185

PAKISTAN

Pakistan's prime minister has held talks with Qatar's emir, signing agreements on trade, investment and tourism, according to statements from both governments. Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan arrived in the Qatari capital Doha for a one-day visit on Thursday, accompanied by Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi and his advisors on petroleum and overseas citizens, a Pakistani foreign office statement said. "The two leaders exchanged views on the existing excellent bilateral relations as well as regional and international issues of mutual concern," said a Pakistani foreign ministry statement following the talks. The talks focused on economic issues, investment and energy, a Qatari foreign ministry statement said.

Prime Minister Khan also lauded the Qatari government's role in helping mediate between the United States and the Afghan Taliban. A historic peace agreement between the two parties is due to be signed in Doha on Saturday. In addition, Khan briefed the Qatari leader on the situation in the disputed territory of Kashmir, where India revoked the special constitutional status of the portion it administers last August and has imposed strict security controls since then.

Comments. Khan's visit to Qatar comes after he hosted Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the Pakistani capital Islamabad, and visited Malaysia for talks with then-Prime Minister Mahatir Mohamed earlier this month.

In Malaysia, Khan said he regretted not attending the Kuala Lumpur Summit, an event for Muslim leaders from around the world hosted by the Malaysian government. Earlier, Pakistan's foreign minister had said the country withdrew from the conference because of concerns expressed by the governments of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Both governments denied that charge. Analysts say Pakistan's engagement with the three countries - who have found themselves opposed to Saudi Arabia and the UAE on regional issues in the recent past - was about sending a signal. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/pakistan-imran-khan-holds-talks-qatari-emir-doha-

China could deploy 100,000 ducks to neighbouring Pakistan to help tackle swarms of crop-eating locusts, according to reports. Pakistan declared an emergency earlier this month saying locust numbers were the worst in more than two decades. An agricultural expert behind the scheme says a single duck can eat more than 200 locusts a day and can be more effective than pesticides. However, another researcher questioned whether the ducks would be effective. Millions of the insects have also been devastating crops in parts of East Africa. The Chinese government announced this week it was sending a team of experts to Pakistan to develop "targeted programmes" against the locusts.

Comments. In 2000, China shipped 30,000 ducks from Zhejiang province to Xinjiang to tackle an infestation of locusts. The current heavy infestations can be traced back to the 12 cyclone season of 2018-19 that brought heavy rains to the Arabian Peninsula and allowed at least three generations of "unprecedented breeding" that went undetected. Swarms have since spread out into South Asia and East Africa. In January, the UN called for international help to fight swarms of desert locusts sweeping through East Africa. Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia are all struggling with "unprecedented" and "devastating" swarms of the food-devouring insects, the UN said. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-

SRI LANKA

Leader of Opposition yesterday said he and others representing various political parties will begin a new political journey with the launch of Samagi Jana Balawegaya today. Also, he lauded the new online service launched by MP which people could inform the MP their urgent need. "This exercise of Mr Nanayakkara is an innovative one. He had thought out of the box to implement it," he said. "Mr Nanayakkara has become an ombudsman by accepting the plight of the people and help them. This is also an act of gratitude," he said. Mr Premadasa said this online service will be made use of by Samagi Jana Balawegaya as value addition where the people are concerned.

Comments. Speaking during a public gathering in Galle, Mr Premadasa said today's launch will be a new democratic exercise. "We will be starting a new political and democratic exercise today," he said. "It will also be a new journey with a new mission," he said https://www.news.lk/news/political-current-affairs

Foreign Minister met (17 February 2020) the visiting US Congressional delegation, comprising Mr. Ami Bera, MD, Chairman, House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Asia, the Pacific, and Non-Proliferation and Representative Mr. George E.B. Holding, Member of the House Ways and Means Committee, Budget Committee and Ethics Committee and two members of the Congressional Committee Staff. Minister Gunawardena welcomed the US Congress Representatives and highlighted the need to move forward in new areas of cooperation that would boost Sri Lanka’s economy. He said the visit took place at a significant time to Sri Lanka and briefed the delegation on the initiatives taken to broadbase Sri Lanka’s relationship with the US in ICT, Science, Technology and innovation and agriculture sectors through sector-focused dialogues, with representatives of the specific sectors from both sides. The two Representatives of the Congress articulated the strong desire of the Government of the United States of America to advance the multifaceted relationship with Sri Lanka as an important strategic partner of the USA. Noting the importance of enhancing the economic cooperation between the two countries, Representative Bera and Representative Holding, expressed the willingness of the US side to increase Foreign Direct Investment in both countries.

Recognising Sri Lanka’s strategic geographic position in the world map, they also emphasised the importance of enhancing maritime cooperation with the island. The Minister availed of the opportunity of meeting the Congressional delegation to reiterate strong objections of the Government of Sri Lanka on the recent imposition of travel restrictions on Lt. Gen. Shavendra Silva, Commander of the Army and Actg. Chief of Defence Staff and his immediate family and asked that the United States review its decision. 13

Comments. The Congress Delegation was joined at the discussions by US Ambassador Alaina Teplitz and Embassy officials. Foreign Secretary Ravinatha Aryasinha and Director General/ North America, Dharshana Perera, and officials of the Ministry, were associated with the Minister during the talks. The delegation had calls on President , Prime Minister , Speaker Karu Jayasuriya and Senior Advisor to the Prime Minister on Foreign Affairs Prof. G.L. Peiris during their stay in Sri Lanka. The delegation was hosted to lunch by Foreign Secretary Ravinatha Aryasinha prior to their departure today, which was attended by leading Sri Lankan business personalities and Heads of economic-related government institutions. https://www.news.lk/news/political-current-affairs/item/29523-bipartisan-us-congressional- delegation-

RUSSIA Air Cmde T Chand (Retd)

Russian Hypersonic Anti-Ship Missile (Zircon) Testing. Russian Media has widely reported a test of a latest and powerful anti ship missile Zircon on 01 Mar 20204. Zircon is designed to attack ships at sea and targets on land at speeds of up to Mach 9, giving enemy missile defenses very little time to respond. The test, according to Naval News, took place in the Barents Sea in January. The missile was fired from the frigate Admiral Gorshkov and reportedly struck a target on land. Another test is anticipated later this year, from the Russian Navy’s new K-561 Kazan. Zircon is designed to use speed to penetrate enemy air defense systems. The missile will be armed with a conventional or nuclear warhead and will have a range of 1000 km. Zircon would be carried both by surface warships and .

Last year on 20 Feb 2019, Russian President had stated that the Zircon missile is capable of accelerating up to Mach 9 and destroying both sea and land targets within 1,000 km range. Later on 24 Dec 2019, Vladimir Putin also stated that Zircon's land-based version is in development5.

The also spelled as 3M22 Tsirkon, NATO reporting name: SS-N-33 is a powered maneuvering anti-ship hypersonic . Zircon is believed to be a winged hypersonic cruise missile with a lift-generating center body. A booster stage with solid-fuel engines accelerates it to supersonic speeds, after which a scramjet motor with liquid-fuel in the second stage accelerates it to hypersonic speeds. According to Putin the missile shares some parts with the subsonic Kalibr land attack cruise missile as a cost-saving measure.

India’s own BrahMos-II or BrahMos-2 or BrahMos Mark II a hypersonic cruise missile currently under joint development by 's NPO Mashinostroyenia and India's Defence Research and Development Organisation is likely to have some commonalities with the Zircon missile. The BrahMos-II is expected to have a range of

4Kyle Mizokami, Russia Just Tested Its Hypersonic Anti-Ship Missile. 01 mar 2020;https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a31159727/zircon-hypersonic-missile- test 5Kyle Mizokami, Russia Just Tested Its Hypersonic Anti-Ship Missile. 01 mar 2020;https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/weapons/a31159727/zircon-hypersonic-missile- test 5 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3M22_Zircon

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450 km and a speed of Mach 7. During the cruise stage of flight the missile will be propelled by a scramjet air breathing jet engine6. BrahMos-II is planned to be launched from Ships, submarines, aircraft and land-based mobile launchers. A successful test of the Zircon missile bodes well for the speedy development of the BrahMos-II missile as well.

6 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BrahMos-II