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Lithium Market Outlook LITHIUM MARKET OUTLOOK Foro del Litio August 2018 Daniel Jimenez SVP Iodine, Lithium and Industrial Chemicals Agenda 1 Lithium Market 2 Demand 2.1 Global 2.2 Li-ion Batteries and Electric Vehicles 3 Supply 4 Lithium at SQM 2 Lithium Market Background Brines • Lithium is widely spread in nature(1). • Lithium is found in: – Continental brines (100-2,700 ppm) ➢ Dried out “Salares” (e.g. Atacama in Chile, Hombre Muerto in Argentina, Uyuni in Bolivia and Silver Peak in the US). ➢ Salt lakes (e.g. Zhabuye and Qinghai in China). – Minerals (2,300-18,000 ppm) ➢ About 145 mineralogical species, however only a few are commercial sources of Lithium (e.g. spodumene, petalite and Minerals lepidolite). – Other resources ➢ Oil field brines (e.g. Smackover, Texas, USA) (60-500 ppm) ➢ Geothermal brines (e.g. Imperial Valley, California, USA) (50-400 ppm ) ➢ Sedimentary clays (e.g. hectorites in USA y jaderites in Serbia) (2,000-3,000 ppm) ➢ Sea water (0.17 ppm) (1) 20 ppm, similar in abundance as other common elements (Nickel: 84 ppm, Zinc: 70 ppm, 3 Copper: 60 ppm, Cobalt: 25 ppm, Lead: 14 ppm, Tin: 1,3 ppm, Beryllium: 2,8 ppm, Molybdenum: 1,2 ppm. Lithium Market World resources USGS Lithium Reserves 2017 Country Reserves (MT) Argentina 2.000.000 Australia 2.700.000 • SQM Reserves (20F Report 18): Brazil 48.000 8.130.000 MT-Li Chile 7.500.000 Enough to supply 200 years of world´s 2017 China 3.200.000 lithium demand. Portugal 60.000 US 35.000 Zimbawe 23.000 Total (Li) 15.566.000 Total (LCE) 82.811.000 Source: USGS Source: SQM 4 Lithium Market Global resources Existing and New Projects Producing [2017] 17 Brownfield [2018 - 2022] 8 Greenfield [2018 - 2022] 10 Total Projects 35 Active Brine Potential Brine Active Mineral Potential Mineral SQM Projects 5 Agenda 1 Lithium Market 2 Demand 2.1 Global 2.2 Li-ion Batteries and Electric Vehicles 3 Supply 4 Lithium at SQM 6 Demand: global Energy storage market share in 2017: 59% End use Lithium Chemicals Demand 2017 Cement and Aluminium Adhesives 1% 1% Others 17% CC Powder 2% Air 212 kMT- LCE Conditioning 3% Energy Storage Greases 59% 8% Frits 4% Glass 5% 7 Demand: global End use Lithium Chemicals Demand 10-year comparison 2007 2017 Cement and Aluminium Adhesives 21 (kMT-LCE) 119 (kMT-LCE) 1% 1% Others 17% CC Powder Energy Storage Others 2% 24% 30% Air Conditioning 89 kMT- LCE 212 kMT- LCE Glass Aluminium 3% 7% 4% Energy Storage Greases Cement and 59% 8% Adhesives Frits 3% Frits 9% 4% CC Powder Glass Air 3% Greases Conditioning 5% 14% 6% 8 Source: SQM Demand: global Overview of Lithium production (2017) 115 kMT- LCE Concentrate • Glass 30 kMT-LCE • Frits 85 kMT LCE • Metallurgy Minerals Lithium Concentrates Lithium Carbonate 1997 Lithium Hydroxide 2000 Inorganic derivatives • Battery Materials • Greases Lithium Carbonate: • Glass • Battery Materials • Lithium Bromide • Frits • Dyes • Lithium Fluoride • Aluminum • Lithium Nitrate • CC Powder Lithium Hydroxide: • Construction • Lithium Carbonate HP Natural Resources Natural 127 kMT- • Lithium Peroxide LCE 212 kMT-LCE Brines Lithium Chloride Lithium Metal Organic derivatives • Molecular Sieves • Batteries (Primary) • Butiylilithium 2003 • Air treatment • Al-Li alloys • Lithium • Construction • Pharmaceutical Diisopropylamide • Chemicals • Lithium Hydride • Others SQM entering each market Lithium Chemicals 9 Source: SQM Demand: global 2017 Lithium Hydroxide : Lithium Carbonate ratio = Lithium products 2:5 Lithium Chemicals 2017 (%) Other Deriv 5% Buli 4% Li2CO3 = Lithium Carbonate LiM 5% LiOH = Lithium Hydroxide LiCl 3% LiCl = Lithium Chloride LiM = Lithium Metal LiOH 23% 212 kMT-LCE Li2CO3 60% Buli = Butiylilithium Other Deriv = Inorganic and Organic Derivatives 10 Source: SQM Demand: global Required investment: USD 10-12 Billion over the next 10 years. Evolution Typical greenfield Capex: KUSD/MT-LCE capacity 13-20 877 693 475 257 212 11 Demand: global Lithium market relative to Copper market 2017 2027 ~ bUS$146 Cu bUS$126 x 17 (6%) Global ~ Li bUS$3 bUS$9 Cu bUS$34 ~ bUS$39 x 11 Chile (9%) Li bUS$1 ~bUS$4 Source: Cochilco, SQM Note: Assuming a US$2.8/lb as long-term Cu price 12 Agenda 1 Lithium Market 2 Demand 2.1 Global 2.2 Li-ion Batteries and Electric Vehicles 3 Supply 4 Lithium at SQM 13 Demand: Li-ion Batteries Higher Nickel content Cathode types More Lithium Hydroxide use NCM cathodes: Lithium (Li) mixed with Nickel (Ni), Cobalt (Co) and Manganese (Mn) OEM target: higher energy density (High Ni) and lower cost (Low Co) Co LCO High stability region Reversability High capacity NCM 1-1-1 NCM 5-2-3 + Safety NCM 4-2-4 Capacity NCA NCM 6-2-2 NCM 8-1-1 Stability LMO Mn Ni Low cost region 14 Source: SQM Demand: Li-ion Batteries Expected battery technology commercialization timeline Higher Lithium Hydroxide demand compared to Lithium Carbonate Deployed Higher LiOH Demand Multiple Lithium Metal Variable [2016 - 2022] [2021 - 2027] [2026 - ?] [?] Source: International Energy Agency 2018 15 NCM: Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide Demand: Li-ion Batteries Trend: higher energy density Li-ion vs Lithium Metal Increasing density Liquid Solid Electrolyte Electrolyte (Lithium source: Li2CO3 / LiOH) 16 Source: MIT Demand: Li-ion Batteries Lithium cost is ~ 7% of Li-ion battery materials Li-ion battery cost breakdown 81% 70% 77% 73% 7% of cost 6% of cost 7% of cost 8% of cost Source: UBS 17 LIB cost does not include depreciation not labor (only materials) Demand: Electric Vehicles Lithium content today Lithium content in each device, kg-LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) Source: Deutsche Bank 18 OEM: Original Equipment Manufacturer Demand: Electric Vehicles Performance: Best selling Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) 6-8 Km/kWh Renault Zoe Tesla Model 3* BAIC EC-SERIES ** EU Q1-18 Sales: 8,947 units US Q1-18 Sales: 8,180 units China Q1-18 Sales: 19,808 units Range: 241 Km Range: 354 Km Range: 156 Km Battery Pack: 41 kWh Battery Pack: 50 kWh Battery Pack: 20 kWh Li used: 31 Kg LCE Li used: 38 Kg LCE Li used: 15 Kg LCE MSRP: US$ 23,000 MSRP: US$ 35,000 MSRP: US$ 24,000 Performance between 6-8 Km/kWh Several sources *Base Model 19 ** Features for BAIC EC-180 EV Demand: Electric Vehicles Car manufacturers committed to OEMs announcements Electric Vehicles Announcements Region OEM Year Investment xEV Target Ford 2022 $11 billion 40 xEV including 16 BEV NAFTA GM 2022 >20 BEV Tesla 2024 Sales of Model 3 around 274 kunits xEVs to account for 15-25% of sales BMW 2025 25 electrified models (12 BEV) € 12 billion xEVs for 15-25% of sales Daimler 2025 >10 BEV models EMEA 40 hybrid models Volvo 2025 50% of sales to be electric 2025 Over € 20 billion 80 xEV models VW 2030 $40 billion Electrified versions of all +300 global models Honda 2030 2/3 of total car sales to be electrified 2020 Launching 10 EVs Toyota 2030 Selling 5.5 million electrified vehicles (including hybrids and hydrogen fuel cells) 8 new EV models ASIA Nissan 2022 Sales of 1 million units Dongfeng 2022 xEV sales accounting for 30% of total sales BYD 2020 Sales of 600 kunits BAIC 2020 Production of 800 kunits Several Sources 20 OEM: Original Equipment Manufacturer Demand: Electric Vehicles Car manufacturers committed to Penetration by OEM 2020 and 2025 Electric Vehicles Most dramatic change in sales during 2020-2025 21 Source: Citi Research 2018 Demand: Electric Vehicles Government push Government CO2 regulation More stringent government regulations -35% compared to 2000 levels -50% compared to 2000 levels 2017 2025 22 Source: International Council of Clean Transportation (ICCT) Demand: Electric Vehicles Internal Combustion ICE announced sales bans and access restrictions Engines (ICE) bans 23 Source: International Energy Agency 2018 Demand: Electric Vehicles Li-ion battery cost today: Lithium-ion battery cost forecast barrier for adoption 600 Li-Metal Battery projection Graphite/High assumes cyclelife, cell Voltage NCM scale-up, and catastrophic 500 failure issues have been Silicon/High resolved Voltage NCM Lithium-Metal or Lithium/Sulfur 400 5x excess Li, 10% S US$320/ kWh 300 US$256/kWh US$235 kWh 200 1.5x excess Li, 75% S System System Cost (US$/kWh ~US$80/ kWh 100 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Year 4V, NCM 4.2V, 10% Si 4.7V 4.7V, 30% Si 24 Source: D. Howell - EERE Annual merit Review Washington (2017) Demand: Electric Vehicles High Tech, forefront design & Qualitative aspects environmentally friendly The decision of buying an electric is not only economics Consumer Preferences 25 Several Sources Agenda 1 Lithium Market 2 Demand 2.1 Global 2.2 Li-ion Batteries and Electric Vehicles 3 Supply 4 Lithium at SQM 26 Supply Australia 2022: 46% Capacity by player and country 2017 - 2022 Lithium Chemicals Supply and Announced Capacity Note: Raw material for direct use not included. 2017 2022F Others 17% SQM SQM 28% 23% GXY Others 3% 39% ORE 5% 212 kMT-LCE 735 kMT-LCE FMC 9% ALB 16% ALB GXY 29% TQL 2% ORE 14% 3% FMC TQL 4% 8% US-Canada US-Canada Other Other 2% 2% 0% 2% Chile 30% Chile 37% Australia 38% 212 kMT-LCE 735 kMT-LCE Australia 46% Argentina 11% 27 China Argentina China 9% 14% 9% Supply Competitors Australia 28 Source: ACBR Agenda 1 Lithium Market 2 Demand 2.1 Global 2.2 Li-ion Batteries and Electric Vehicles 3 Supply 4 Lithium at SQM 29 Lithium at SQM Immediate Lithium capacity - Chile Lithium Carbonate Lithium Hydroxide – Current capacity: 48 kMT/year – Current capacity 6,000 MT/year – Expansion to 70 kMT/year (end 2018) – Expansion to 13,500 MT/year – Expansion to 120 kMT/year (end 2019) (end 2018) – Expansion to 180 kMT/year (end 2021) 30 Lithium at SQM Lithium projects - Argentina Project description: • Salar de Cauchari-Olaroz • JV 50/50 with Lithium Americas Corp.
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