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LITHIUM MARKET OUTLOOK Foro del Litio August 2018 Daniel Jimenez SVP Iodine, Lithium and Industrial Chemicals Agenda 1 Lithium Market 2 Demand 2.1 Global 2.2 Li-ion Batteries and Electric Vehicles 3 Supply 4 Lithium at SQM 2 Lithium Market Background Brines • Lithium is widely spread in nature(1). • Lithium is found in: – Continental brines (100-2,700 ppm) ➢ Dried out “Salares” (e.g. Atacama in Chile, Hombre Muerto in Argentina, Uyuni in Bolivia and Silver Peak in the US). ➢ Salt lakes (e.g. Zhabuye and Qinghai in China). – Minerals (2,300-18,000 ppm) ➢ About 145 mineralogical species, however only a few are commercial sources of Lithium (e.g. spodumene, petalite and Minerals lepidolite). – Other resources ➢ Oil field brines (e.g. Smackover, Texas, USA) (60-500 ppm) ➢ Geothermal brines (e.g. Imperial Valley, California, USA) (50-400 ppm ) ➢ Sedimentary clays (e.g. hectorites in USA y jaderites in Serbia) (2,000-3,000 ppm) ➢ Sea water (0.17 ppm) (1) 20 ppm, similar in abundance as other common elements (Nickel: 84 ppm, Zinc: 70 ppm, 3 Copper: 60 ppm, Cobalt: 25 ppm, Lead: 14 ppm, Tin: 1,3 ppm, Beryllium: 2,8 ppm, Molybdenum: 1,2 ppm. Lithium Market World resources USGS Lithium Reserves 2017 Country Reserves (MT) Argentina 2.000.000 Australia 2.700.000 • SQM Reserves (20F Report 18): Brazil 48.000 8.130.000 MT-Li Chile 7.500.000 Enough to supply 200 years of world´s 2017 China 3.200.000 lithium demand. Portugal 60.000 US 35.000 Zimbawe 23.000 Total (Li) 15.566.000 Total (LCE) 82.811.000 Source: USGS Source: SQM 4 Lithium Market Global resources Existing and New Projects Producing [2017] 17 Brownfield [2018 - 2022] 8 Greenfield [2018 - 2022] 10 Total Projects 35 Active Brine Potential Brine Active Mineral Potential Mineral SQM Projects 5 Agenda 1 Lithium Market 2 Demand 2.1 Global 2.2 Li-ion Batteries and Electric Vehicles 3 Supply 4 Lithium at SQM 6 Demand: global Energy storage market share in 2017: 59% End use Lithium Chemicals Demand 2017 Cement and Aluminium Adhesives 1% 1% Others 17% CC Powder 2% Air 212 kMT- LCE Conditioning 3% Energy Storage Greases 59% 8% Frits 4% Glass 5% 7 Demand: global End use Lithium Chemicals Demand 10-year comparison 2007 2017 Cement and Aluminium Adhesives 21 (kMT-LCE) 119 (kMT-LCE) 1% 1% Others 17% CC Powder Energy Storage Others 2% 24% 30% Air Conditioning 89 kMT- LCE 212 kMT- LCE Glass Aluminium 3% 7% 4% Energy Storage Greases Cement and 59% 8% Adhesives Frits 3% Frits 9% 4% CC Powder Glass Air 3% Greases Conditioning 5% 14% 6% 8 Source: SQM Demand: global Overview of Lithium production (2017) 115 kMT- LCE Concentrate • Glass 30 kMT-LCE • Frits 85 kMT LCE • Metallurgy Minerals Lithium Concentrates Lithium Carbonate 1997 Lithium Hydroxide 2000 Inorganic derivatives • Battery Materials • Greases Lithium Carbonate: • Glass • Battery Materials • Lithium Bromide • Frits • Dyes • Lithium Fluoride • Aluminum • Lithium Nitrate • CC Powder Lithium Hydroxide: • Construction • Lithium Carbonate HP Natural Resources Natural 127 kMT- • Lithium Peroxide LCE 212 kMT-LCE Brines Lithium Chloride Lithium Metal Organic derivatives • Molecular Sieves • Batteries (Primary) • Butiylilithium 2003 • Air treatment • Al-Li alloys • Lithium • Construction • Pharmaceutical Diisopropylamide • Chemicals • Lithium Hydride • Others SQM entering each market Lithium Chemicals 9 Source: SQM Demand: global 2017 Lithium Hydroxide : Lithium Carbonate ratio = Lithium products 2:5 Lithium Chemicals 2017 (%) Other Deriv 5% Buli 4% Li2CO3 = Lithium Carbonate LiM 5% LiOH = Lithium Hydroxide LiCl 3% LiCl = Lithium Chloride LiM = Lithium Metal LiOH 23% 212 kMT-LCE Li2CO3 60% Buli = Butiylilithium Other Deriv = Inorganic and Organic Derivatives 10 Source: SQM Demand: global Required investment: USD 10-12 Billion over the next 10 years. Evolution Typical greenfield Capex: KUSD/MT-LCE capacity 13-20 877 693 475 257 212 11 Demand: global Lithium market relative to Copper market 2017 2027 ~ bUS$146 Cu bUS$126 x 17 (6%) Global ~ Li bUS$3 bUS$9 Cu bUS$34 ~ bUS$39 x 11 Chile (9%) Li bUS$1 ~bUS$4 Source: Cochilco, SQM Note: Assuming a US$2.8/lb as long-term Cu price 12 Agenda 1 Lithium Market 2 Demand 2.1 Global 2.2 Li-ion Batteries and Electric Vehicles 3 Supply 4 Lithium at SQM 13 Demand: Li-ion Batteries Higher Nickel content Cathode types More Lithium Hydroxide use NCM cathodes: Lithium (Li) mixed with Nickel (Ni), Cobalt (Co) and Manganese (Mn) OEM target: higher energy density (High Ni) and lower cost (Low Co) Co LCO High stability region Reversability High capacity NCM 1-1-1 NCM 5-2-3 + Safety NCM 4-2-4 Capacity NCA NCM 6-2-2 NCM 8-1-1 Stability LMO Mn Ni Low cost region 14 Source: SQM Demand: Li-ion Batteries Expected battery technology commercialization timeline Higher Lithium Hydroxide demand compared to Lithium Carbonate Deployed Higher LiOH Demand Multiple Lithium Metal Variable [2016 - 2022] [2021 - 2027] [2026 - ?] [?] Source: International Energy Agency 2018 15 NCM: Lithium Nickel Manganese Cobalt Oxide Demand: Li-ion Batteries Trend: higher energy density Li-ion vs Lithium Metal Increasing density Liquid Solid Electrolyte Electrolyte (Lithium source: Li2CO3 / LiOH) 16 Source: MIT Demand: Li-ion Batteries Lithium cost is ~ 7% of Li-ion battery materials Li-ion battery cost breakdown 81% 70% 77% 73% 7% of cost 6% of cost 7% of cost 8% of cost Source: UBS 17 LIB cost does not include depreciation not labor (only materials) Demand: Electric Vehicles Lithium content today Lithium content in each device, kg-LCE (Lithium Carbonate Equivalent) Source: Deutsche Bank 18 OEM: Original Equipment Manufacturer Demand: Electric Vehicles Performance: Best selling Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV) 6-8 Km/kWh Renault Zoe Tesla Model 3* BAIC EC-SERIES ** EU Q1-18 Sales: 8,947 units US Q1-18 Sales: 8,180 units China Q1-18 Sales: 19,808 units Range: 241 Km Range: 354 Km Range: 156 Km Battery Pack: 41 kWh Battery Pack: 50 kWh Battery Pack: 20 kWh Li used: 31 Kg LCE Li used: 38 Kg LCE Li used: 15 Kg LCE MSRP: US$ 23,000 MSRP: US$ 35,000 MSRP: US$ 24,000 Performance between 6-8 Km/kWh Several sources *Base Model 19 ** Features for BAIC EC-180 EV Demand: Electric Vehicles Car manufacturers committed to OEMs announcements Electric Vehicles Announcements Region OEM Year Investment xEV Target Ford 2022 $11 billion 40 xEV including 16 BEV NAFTA GM 2022 >20 BEV Tesla 2024 Sales of Model 3 around 274 kunits xEVs to account for 15-25% of sales BMW 2025 25 electrified models (12 BEV) € 12 billion xEVs for 15-25% of sales Daimler 2025 >10 BEV models EMEA 40 hybrid models Volvo 2025 50% of sales to be electric 2025 Over € 20 billion 80 xEV models VW 2030 $40 billion Electrified versions of all +300 global models Honda 2030 2/3 of total car sales to be electrified 2020 Launching 10 EVs Toyota 2030 Selling 5.5 million electrified vehicles (including hybrids and hydrogen fuel cells) 8 new EV models ASIA Nissan 2022 Sales of 1 million units Dongfeng 2022 xEV sales accounting for 30% of total sales BYD 2020 Sales of 600 kunits BAIC 2020 Production of 800 kunits Several Sources 20 OEM: Original Equipment Manufacturer Demand: Electric Vehicles Car manufacturers committed to Penetration by OEM 2020 and 2025 Electric Vehicles Most dramatic change in sales during 2020-2025 21 Source: Citi Research 2018 Demand: Electric Vehicles Government push Government CO2 regulation More stringent government regulations -35% compared to 2000 levels -50% compared to 2000 levels 2017 2025 22 Source: International Council of Clean Transportation (ICCT) Demand: Electric Vehicles Internal Combustion ICE announced sales bans and access restrictions Engines (ICE) bans 23 Source: International Energy Agency 2018 Demand: Electric Vehicles Li-ion battery cost today: Lithium-ion battery cost forecast barrier for adoption 600 Li-Metal Battery projection Graphite/High assumes cyclelife, cell Voltage NCM scale-up, and catastrophic 500 failure issues have been Silicon/High resolved Voltage NCM Lithium-Metal or Lithium/Sulfur 400 5x excess Li, 10% S US$320/ kWh 300 US$256/kWh US$235 kWh 200 1.5x excess Li, 75% S System System Cost (US$/kWh ~US$80/ kWh 100 0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Year 4V, NCM 4.2V, 10% Si 4.7V 4.7V, 30% Si 24 Source: D. Howell - EERE Annual merit Review Washington (2017) Demand: Electric Vehicles High Tech, forefront design & Qualitative aspects environmentally friendly The decision of buying an electric is not only economics Consumer Preferences 25 Several Sources Agenda 1 Lithium Market 2 Demand 2.1 Global 2.2 Li-ion Batteries and Electric Vehicles 3 Supply 4 Lithium at SQM 26 Supply Australia 2022: 46% Capacity by player and country 2017 - 2022 Lithium Chemicals Supply and Announced Capacity Note: Raw material for direct use not included. 2017 2022F Others 17% SQM SQM 28% 23% GXY Others 3% 39% ORE 5% 212 kMT-LCE 735 kMT-LCE FMC 9% ALB 16% ALB GXY 29% TQL 2% ORE 14% 3% FMC TQL 4% 8% US-Canada US-Canada Other Other 2% 2% 0% 2% Chile 30% Chile 37% Australia 38% 212 kMT-LCE 735 kMT-LCE Australia 46% Argentina 11% 27 China Argentina China 9% 14% 9% Supply Competitors Australia 28 Source: ACBR Agenda 1 Lithium Market 2 Demand 2.1 Global 2.2 Li-ion Batteries and Electric Vehicles 3 Supply 4 Lithium at SQM 29 Lithium at SQM Immediate Lithium capacity - Chile Lithium Carbonate Lithium Hydroxide – Current capacity: 48 kMT/year – Current capacity 6,000 MT/year – Expansion to 70 kMT/year (end 2018) – Expansion to 13,500 MT/year – Expansion to 120 kMT/year (end 2019) (end 2018) – Expansion to 180 kMT/year (end 2021) 30 Lithium at SQM Lithium projects - Argentina Project description: • Salar de Cauchari-Olaroz • JV 50/50 with Lithium Americas Corp.
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  • Ionic Conductivity of Solid Mixtures

    Ionic Conductivity of Solid Mixtures

    NASA TECHNICAL NOTE NASA-- TN D-4606 d./ *o 0 *o nP LOAN COPY: RRURN TO AFWL (WLIL-2) KIRTLAND AFB, N MEX IONIC CONDUCTIVITY OF SOLID MIXTURES by William L. Fielder Lewis Research Celzter 3 ._i _... Cleveland, Ohio r I t , 1 NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION WASHINGTON, D. C. MAY 1968 ,/ I I TECH LIBRARY KAFB, NM ,lllllllllll__ .llllllllll I1111 lllllllllllllllll I 023L03b NASA TN D-4606 IONIC CONDUCTIVITY OF SOLID MIXTURES By William L. Fielder Lewis Research Center Cleveland, Ohio NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION For sale by the Clearinghouse for Federal Scientific and Technicol Information Springfield, Virginia 22151 - CFSTI price $3.00 IONIC CONDUCTIVITY OF SOLID MIXTURES by William L. Fielder Lewis Research Center SUMMARY The conductivities of four solid mixtures were determined as a function of tempera­ ture: (1) the lithium fluoride - lithium chloride eutectic, (2) the lithium chloride - potassium chloride eutectic, (3) the lithium fluoride - sodium chloride eutectic, and (4) a 50-mole-percent mixture of sodium chloride and potassium chloride. Two conductivity regions were obtained for each of the four mixtures. The activation energies for the conductivity for the lower-temperature regions ranged from 14 to 27 kilocalories per mole (59 to 114 kJ/mole). These energies were similar to the cation migration energies for the single crystals of the alkali halides. The conductivity of the mixtures in the lower-temperature regions is best explained by the following mechanism: (1) formation of cation vacancies primarily by multivalent impurities, and (2) migration of the cations through these vacancies. The activation energies for the conductivity of the solid mixtures in the upper- temperature regions ranged from 5 to 9 kilocalories per mole (20 to 39 kJ/mole).