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Und GASP-Krisenmanagement in Bosnien-Herzegowina 1991-1994

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Und GASP-Krisenmanagement in Bosnien-Herzegowina 1991-1994 Die Wirksamkeit von EPZ- und GASP-Krisenmanagement in Bosnien-Herzegowina 1991-1994 Inauguraldissertation zur Erlangung des Grades des Dr. phil. Otto-Suhr-Institut für Politikwissenschaft Fachbereich für Politik- und Sozialwissenschaften Freie Universität Berlin vorgelegt von Tobias Heider Berlin im Jahre 2010 Erstgutachter: Prof. Dr. Thomas Risse Zweitgutachter: Prof. Dr. Sven Chojnacki Tag der Disputation: 2. Dezember 2010 DANKSAGUNG Ohne die Unterstützung von verschiedenen Seiten wäre diese Dissertation niemals entstanden. Ich danke deswegen ganz herzlich meinem Doktorvater Thomas Risse für seine langjährige, exzellente und freundschaftliche Betreuung. Darüber hinaus möchte ich meinem Zweitgutachter Sven Chojnacki ganz herzlich für seine Betreuung danken – auch dafür, dass er kurzfristig bereit war, als Zweitgutachter einzuspringen. Ingo Peters hat mich seit 2003 ebenfalls intensiv bei dem Projekt begleitet. Ihm danke ich ganz besonders für seine unzähligen Hinweise, Ermutigungen und sein ständiges Insistieren. Meinen Mitstreitern Mareike Kleine und Philipp Fürst möchte ich ebenfalls ganz herzlich für ihre vielen wertvollen Kommentare danken, die sie mir seit fast sieben Jahren zu meinem Forschungsvorhaben gegeben haben. Mein ganz besonderer Dank gilt zudem der VolkswagenStiftung und speziell dem Leiter des Programms European Foreign and Security Policy Studies (EFSPS), Alfred Schmidt. Ohne die großzügige Unterstützung durch die VolkswagenStiftung in Form eines zweijährigen Vollzeitstipendiums samt Reisemittel wäre eine Durchführung des Projektes schier unmöglich gewesen. Jenseits der akademischen Sphäre möchte ich meiner Frau Eva für ihre Ermutigungen, ihre Geduld und ihre Nachsicht danken. Schließlich gilt mein Dank auch meinen Eltern, die mein Vorhaben von Anfang an unterstützt, gefördert und begleitet haben. In der Hoffnung, dass das Forschungsprojekt einen Beitrag zur Aufklärung und Wahrheitsfindung leisten kann, widme ich die Arbeit allen Opfern des Bosnienkrieges 1992-5. Berlin/Brüssel, Dezember 2010 INHALTSVERZEICHNIS ÜBERSICHT GRAFIKEN ............................................................................................................. 4 ÜBERSICHT ANNEXE................................................................................................................. 5 ABKÜRZUNGEN .......................................................................................................................... 6 1 PROBLEMATIK UND FORSCHUNGSDESIGN ................................................................ 7 1.1 Einleitung........................................................................................................................ 7 1.2 Fragestellung und Ansatz.............................................................................................. 10 1.3 Methode und Fallauswahl ............................................................................................. 13 1.4 Quellen und Daten ........................................................................................................ 17 2 THEORETISCHER ANSATZ ............................................................................................. 19 2.1 Externe Vermittlung: Neutrale und glaubwürdige Hilfen............................................. 20 2.2 Externe Macht: Glaubwürdige Zwangsdiplomatie und Belohnungen.......................... 24 2.3 Der Einfluss des institutionellen Designs der EPZ/GASP............................................ 26 3 DER BOSNIENKONFLIKT IM REGIONALEN KONTEXT............................................ 34 3.1 Das bosnische Lager ..................................................................................................... 34 3.2 Das serbische Lager ...................................................................................................... 37 3.3 Das kroatische Lager..................................................................................................... 43 3.4 Gemeinsame Regierung und die Übereinkunft von Karadjordjevo.............................. 46 4 ERSTER FALL: EG/EPZ-KRISENMANAGEMENT 1991-1992 ...................................... 50 4.1 Oktober 1991-Januar 1992 (T1): Ein zweidimensionaler Konflikt verschärft sich...... 50 4.2 Januar-Februar 1992 (T2): Das Lissabon-Abkommen ................................................. 75 4.3 Februar-März 1992 (T3): Militärische Eskalation und das Sarajewo-Abkommen....... 95 4.4 März-April 1992 (T4): Der Konfliktaustrag wird militärisch..................................... 122 4.5 Zusammenfassung: EPZ- und US-Krisenmanagement 1991-1992 ............................ 148 5 ZWEITER FALL: GASP-KRISENMANAGEMENT 1993-94......................................... 155 5.1 Oktober-November 1993 (T1): Planungsphase des EU Action Plans ........................ 155 5.2 Dezember 1993 (T2): Serbo-kroatischer Ausgleich statt pro-bosnischer Lösung...... 180 5.3 Januar-Februar 1994 (T3): Bosnisch-kroatischer Separatfrieden ............................... 210 5.4 Zusammenfassung: GASP- und US-Krisenmanagement 1993-1994 ......................... 238 6 VERGLEICH: EPZ- UND GASP-KRISENMANAGEMENT.......................................... 246 6.1 Konfliktstrukturen 1991/1992 und 1993/1994 im Vergleich...................................... 246 6.2 Glaubwürdigkeit und Neutralität von EPZ und GASP-Krisenmanagement............... 249 6.3 Der Einfluss institutioneller Faktoren auf die Wirksamkeit ....................................... 256 BIBLIOGRAPHIE...................................................................................................................... 259 ANNEXE I-XXXIII.................................................................................................................... 264 ÜBERSICHT GRAFIKEN (1) Tabelle: Kausalkette zur Effektivität europäischen Krisenmanagements............................... 19 (2) Karte: Siedlungsgebiete ethnischer Gruppen in Jugoslawien laut Zensus 1991..................... 38 (3) Karte: Ethnische Mehrheiten auf Gemeindeebene in Bosnien laut Zensus 1991 ................... 39 (4) Karte: United Nations Protected Areas (UNPAs) in Kroatien 1991-1992.............................. 40 (5) Karte: Kroatische Banovia von 1939 ...................................................................................... 45 (6) Foto: Gemeinsame Regierung in Bosnien 1991 – Karadzic, Izetbegovic und Kljuic............. 47 (7) Foto: Geheimtreffen von Tudjman und Milosevic in Karadjordjevo am 26. März 1991 ....... 49 (8) Karte: Die Karten von SDS BH, HDZ BH, SDA und Cutileiro 14.-19. März 1992............. 128 (9) Karte: Militärische Situation und Frontverlauf im September 1993..................................... 158 (10) Karte: Die Gebietsaufteilung vom 20. September 1993 von Bord der HMS Invincible..... 159 (11) Karte: Optionen zum Adria-Zugang vom 20. September 1993 .......................................... 161 (12) Karte: Prevlaka an der Adria-Küste .................................................................................... 184 (13) Karte: Die gemeinsame Karte von Milosevic und Tudjman vom 21. Dezember 1993 ...... 187 ÜBERSICHT ANNEXE Annex I: Erklärung Tobias Heider ............................................................................................................265 Annex II: Curriculum Vitae Tobias Heider...............................................................................................266 Annex III: Interviewpartner und deren Funktionen Anfang der 1990er Jahren ........................................267 Annex IV: Telefonat Milosevic/Karadzic zum RAM-Plan, Juli 1991 ......................................................268 Annex V: Bericht des JNA-Kommandeurs für Bosnien, 20. März 1992 ..................................................270 Annex VI: Abkommen von Graz zwischen Boban und Karadzic, 6. Mai 1992........................................280 Annex VII: SDS BH Main Board: Variant A/B Document, 19. Dezember 1991 .....................................284 Annex VIII: EPZ-Erklärung zu den Annerkennungsprinzipien, 16. Dezember 1991...............................293 Annex IX: Stellungnahme Nr. 4 des Badinter-Ausschusses zu Bosnien, 11. Januar 1992 .......................294 Annex X: Das Abkommen von Lissabon, 23. Februar 1992.....................................................................296 Annex XI: EPZ-Erklärung zur Situation in Jugoslawien, 17. Februar 1992 .............................................298 Annex XII: Vorläufiges Abkommen von Brüssel, 9. März 1992..............................................................299 Annex XIII: Das Abkommen von Sarajewo, 18. März 1992 ....................................................................301 Annex XIV: EPZ-Erklärung zu den Ereignissen in Sarajewo 2. März 1992 ............................................307 Annex XV: US-EPZ-Erklärung zur Anerkennung jugoslawischer Republiken, 10. März 1992 ..............308 Annex XVI: Entschließung des Europäischen Parlaments zu Jugoslawien, 13. März 1992.....................309 Annex XVII: Strategic Objectives of the Serbian People in Bosnia, 12. Mai 1992..................................312 Annex XVIII: EPZ-Erklärung zur Anerkennung von Bosnien, 6. April 1992..........................................313 Annex XIX: Erklärung von Präsident Bush zur Anerkenung von Bosnien, 7. April 1992 .......................314 Annex XX: Erklärung Tudjman/Milosevic zur Union Dreier Republiken, 17. Juli 1993.........................315 Annex XXI: Kroatisch-bosnisches Abkommen zum Adria-Zugang,
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