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Beiträge aus dem Institut für Regionalforschung der Universität Kiel Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker The Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link Perspectives of a Cross Border Labour Market Johannes Bröcker, Hayo Herrmann & Artem Korzhenevych Beitrag Nr. 44 Kiel, Oktober 2014 Universität Kiel Institut für Regionalforschung D – 24098 i Beiträge aus dem Institut für Regionalforschung der Universität Kiel Herausgeber: Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker ISSN 1439-2062 Beitrag Nr. 44 (2014) . This Beitrag comprises two of the eleven chapters featuring in a full and final report that was conducted as part of the research project "The Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link: Regional Development Perspectives". The report was published in 2011 by Syddansk Universitetsforlag, Copenhagen (in English, German and Danish language) with Christian Wichmann Matthiessen and Marianne Worm (Uni- versity of Copenhagen) acting as editors. The aforementioned two chapters, namely chapters 5 and 6 respectively (Cross border Labour Markets and Cross Border Mobility: Commuting Sce- narios for 2020) were completed in 2009/2010 under a research team headed up by Prof. Dr. Johannes Bröcker. The chapters were written in line with the framework for the research project at the Institute for Regional Research, University of Kiel. Applicant for the research project, edited by a consortium of five institutions, was Femern A/S, Copenhagen, consortium leader was Christian Wichmann Matthiessen, Department of Geography & Geology, University of Copenhagen. ii Foreword Background and Purpose of the Fehmarnbelt Study The entire research project, “The Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link: Regional Development Perspectives”, has been motivated by a long-term objective of the region beginning in 2010. The research was prompted by the construction, inception and operationalization of the Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link. This link envisages a genuine cross border region where people can freely travel from one side of the Fehmarnbelt to the other. The reasons for travel are numerous – holidaying, work, study, shopping or social. Moreover, firms can cooperate with each other from their locations on either side of the Fehmarnbelt. The study investigates the economic potential of this vision but it also identifies obstacles standing in the way of this vision being realized. Project Elements and Structure of the Final Report: Introduction Summary Maps and Figures Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics The Role of the Cities - a Global Perspective Cross Border Labour Market Cross Border Mobility: Commuting Scenarios for 2020 Clusters in the Economy: Potential new Interaction The Scientific World: Centres, Networks, Development Opportunities The Fixed Link's Potential Effects on House Prices The Cultural Sector General Values and Attitudes among Young People The two chapters “Cross Border Labour Market” and “Cross Border Mobility” form the subject of this Beitrag. Contribution of the Institute for Regional Research The overall study is structured into different subsections where the Institute for Regional Re- search (hereafter IfR) is tasked with analyzing various incentives and barriers characterizing the cross border labour market. Additionally, the research team at the IfR consider different scenari- os for cross border commuting. Finally, the team analyses the long-run labour market implica- tions of the Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link. The team’s research findings are based on data on cross border commuting (daily or weekly) and migration that were collected over the past few years. This data is used to explore the cur- rent level of cross border travel. Furthermore, the data is extrapolated to analyze the extent of future cross border travel. In our discussion of cross border travel, we imply travel across the Fehmarnbelt but also within different parts of the Fehmarnbelt Region. iii Commuting figures have been analyzed on the basis of data compiled for the Danish-German land border (Flensburg–Aabenraa) and the Øresund Region. We discuss how barriers limit cross border labour mobility. Additionally, we discuss how cross border differences in key indicators, such as trade figures, income, labour and housing markets or taxation, encourage commuting and migration. This evidence based research helps us to evaluate the potential for higher cross border labour market integration with the construction of the Fehmarnbelt Fixed Link. The strategies for the implementation of a common cross border regulation framework are informed by the experience of other similar cross border regions with a historically high levels of integration, e.g. at the Dutch-German border, the Danish-German land border or the Øresund region. iv Table of Contents Chapter 5 – Cross Border Labour Market ................................................................................ 1 Benefits of border regions linked by mobility ........................................................................................... 2 Analysis of the labour market in the Fehmarnbelt Region – an overview ................................................ 4 Barriers to mobility across national borders ............................................................................................. 6 Incentives for mobility across national borders: Pull and push factors .................................................. 14 The interaction between impediments and incentives .......................................................................... 15 Impediments and incentives over time ................................................................................................... 16 Interaction between commuting and migration across borders ............................................................ 19 The integration of labour markets across national borders over time ................................................... 20 Workforce mobility across national borders: Regional examples........................................................... 21 The situation at the Danish-German land border ................................................................................... 21 The situation in the Øresund Region ....................................................................................................... 26 Comparison with other European border areas – such as Germany-The Netherlands .......................... 29 The current situation in the Fehmarnbelt Region ................................................................................... 31 A labour market across national borders: Summary .............................................................................. 36 References ............................................................................................................................................... 38 Notes ....................................................................................................................................................... 39 Chapter 6 – Cross Border Mobility: Commuting Scenarios for 2020 ................................... 42 Building a database of German and Danish commuters ......................................................................... 42 The scenarios ........................................................................................................................................... 48 Impact of the completion of the fixed link .............................................................................................. 51 The effects of labour market integration ................................................................................................ 53 Moderate Integration Scenario ........................................................................................................... 55 High Integration Scenario .................................................................................................................... 56 Axis Integration Scenario ..................................................................................................................... 58 Comparison of scenarios ......................................................................................................................... 61 Copenhagen-Hamburg: Weekly rail commuters ..................................................................................... 61 Cross border mobility – scenarios for 2020: Summary ........................................................................... 68 References ............................................................................................................................................... 72 Notes ....................................................................................................................................................... 72 Technical Appendix................................................................................................................. 73 1 Chapter 5 – Cross Border Labour Market The reason for analysing the labour market in the Fehmarnbelt Region is the long-term vision for the region as a business and residential area where people move freely across the borders, the Fehmarnbelt and the Øresund – not only at holiday time and for leisure, but also to work, to be educated, to conduct research, to shop and maintain social contacts. Regardless of whether this vision is evaluated realistically or very critically, such an evaluation will always indicate that the vision is perhaps too ambitious. Similar visions have not yet been realised in other traditional border regions in Europe because of the barriers in the form
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