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Evaluating Air Carrier Fuel Efficiency and CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Airline Industry

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Evaluating Air Carrier Fuel Efficiency and CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Airline Industry Evaluating Air Carrier Fuel Efficiency and CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Airline Industry Final Report – November, 2012 Prepared by : Bo Zou Matthew Elke Mark Hansen Evaluating Air Carrier Fuel Efficiency and CO2 Emissions in the U.S. Airline Industry Abstract We employ ratio-based, deterministic, and stochastic frontier approaches to investigate fuel efficiency among 15 large jet operators (mainline airlines) in the U.S. Given the hub-and-spoke routing structure and the consequent affiliation between mainline and regional carriers, we consider not only fuel efficiency of individual mainline airlines, but also the joint efficiency of each mainline and its regional subsidiaries, as well as fuel efficiency of mainline carriers in transporting passengers from their origins to destinations. We find that: 1) airline fuel consumption is highly correlated with, and largely explained by, the amount of revenue passenger miles and flight departures it produces; 2) depending on the methodology applied, average airline fuel efficiency for the year 2010 is 9-20% less than that of the most efficient carrier, while the least efficient carriers are 25-42% less efficient than the industry leaders; 3) efficiency rankings vary depending on the methodology, but nonetheless display high correlation; 4) regional carriers have two opposing effects on fuel efficiency of mainline airlines: increased fuel per revenue passenger mile but improved accessibility provision; 5) the net effect of routing circuity on fuel efficiency is small; 6) potential cost savings from improved efficiency for mainline airlines can reach $2-3 billion in 2010. i Table of Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................................ i Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ 1 List of Figures ................................................................................................................................. 2 List of Tables ................................................................................................................................... 3 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 5 2 Airline industry organization in the U.S. ................................................................................. 7 3 Airline ranking methodology .................................................................................................. 8 3.1 Ratio approach ................................................................................................................. 9 3.2 Deterministic frontier approach ..................................................................................... 11 3.3 Stochastic frontier approach .......................................................................................... 13 4 Application to US mainline carriers ...................................................................................... 15 4.1 Data ............................................................................................................................... 15 4.2 Mainline-only fuel inefficiency ..................................................................................... 21 4.2.1 Ratio-based inefficiency ........................................................................................ 21 4.2.2 Deterministic frontier based inefficiency .............................................................. 22 4.2.3 Stochastic frontier based inefficiency .................................................................... 26 4.3 Considering mainline-sub affiliations ........................................................................... 29 4.3.1 Assigning regional airlines' operation to mainline carriers ................................... 30 4.3.2 Adjusted fuel inefficiency ..................................................................................... 35 4.4 Inefficiency with Circuity .............................................................................................. 41 4.4.1 Ratio-based inefficiency ........................................................................................ 42 4.4.2 Deterministic frontier based inefficiency .............................................................. 43 4.4.3 Stochastic frontier based inefficiency .................................................................... 44 5 Results comparisons, temporal evolution, and potential cost reductions .............................. 46 5.1 Results comparisons ...................................................................................................... 46 5.2 Temporal evolution of fuel efficiency ........................................................................... 50 5.3 Potential cost savings from improving fuel efficiency .................................................. 53 6 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 59 References ..................................................................................................................................... 62 1 List of Figures Figure 1: Three-level hierarchical structure of fuel efficiency metrics ......................................... 11 Figure 2: Illustration of fuel consumption efficiency frontier ....................................................... 12 Figure 3: Average aircraft size of U.S. carriers (source: Data Base Products).............................. 16 Figure 4: Portion of freight and mail services in the total 15 mainline airlines (2010) ................. 16 Figure 5: Cumulative fuel consumption of the 15 mainline carriers and system totals in 2010 .. 20 Figure 6: Illustration of how departures affect airline fuel efficiency rankings ............................ 25 Figure 7: Dep/RPM ratio among the 15 mainline carriers ............................................................ 26 Figure 8: Route map of SkyWest (source: http://www.SkyWest.com/fly-SkyWest- airlines/SkyWest-airlines-route-map/)................................................................................... 32 Figure 9: Dep/RPM ratios for the 15 mainline carriers with and without considering their regional carrier affiliations .................................................................................................................. 38 Figure 10: Circuity of the 15 mainline airlines in 2010 ................................................................ 42 Figure 11: Box plot of the efficiency scores across the three approaches, considering mainline airlines only, mainline-regional affiliations, and circuity ...................................................... 46 Figure 12: Annual airline fuel consumption in 2010 ..................................................................... 53 2 List of Tables Table 1: Fuel consumption, and output characteristics of the 15 mainline carriers in 2010 ......... 17 Table 2: Descriptive statistics of fuel, output, and output characteristics of ................................. 18 Table 3: Fuel consumption, output, and output characteristics of the 22 regional carriers in 2010 ............................................................................................................................................... 19 Table 4: Descriptive statistics of fuel, output, and output characteristics of 22 regional carriers (airline-quarter observations, 2010) ...................................................................................... 19 Table 5: Percentage of mainline and regional carriers in the system total .................................... 20 Table 6: Fuel/RPM, inefficiency scores, and ranking of the 15 mainline airlines ........................ 22 Table 7: Calculated FIDFA values for the 15 mainline carriers....................................................... 24 Table 8: Estimation results of stochastic frontier models .............................................................. 27 Table 9: Likelihood Ratio tests across models .............................................................................. 28 Table 10: Calculated FISFA values for the 15 mainline carriers ..................................................... 29 Table 11: Overall RPM apportionment, its percentage in total RPM's, and affiliation type with the mainline(s) ....................................................................................................................... 31 Table 12: RPM assignment results ................................................................................................ 34 Table 13: Composite Fuel/RPM, inefficiency scores, ranking and ranking change of the 15 mainline carriers .................................................................................................................... 36 Table 14: Calculated FDIDFAc values for the 15 mainline carriers .............................................. 37 Table 15: Estimation results of stochastic frontier models considering affiliations between mainline and regional carriers ............................................................................................... 39 Table 16: Likelihood Ratio tests across models ............................................................................ 39 Table 17: Calculated FDISFAc values for
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