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International Competition for Satellite-Based Navigation System Services Robert F Old Dominion University ODU Digital Commons Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Graduate Program in International Studies Dissertations Winter 2012 International Competition for Satellite-Based Navigation System Services Robert F. Donnelly Old Dominion University Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds Part of the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Donnelly, Robert F.. "International Competition for Satellite-Based Navigation System Services" (2012). Doctor of Philosophy (PhD), dissertation, International Studies, Old Dominion University, DOI: 10.25777/20b8-sn49 https://digitalcommons.odu.edu/gpis_etds/42 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate Program in International Studies at ODU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Graduate Program in International Studies Theses & Dissertations by an authorized administrator of ODU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION FOR SATELLITE-BASED NAVIGATION SYSTEM SERVICES by Robert F. Donnelly B.A. December 1974, Ohio State University M.A. December 2002, Virginia State University A Dissertation Submitted to the Faculty of Old Dominion University in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY INTERNATIONAL STUDIES OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY December 2012 Annroved bv: Regjna Karp (Director) JAndersson (Member) David Selover (Member) ABSTRACT INTERNATIONAL COMPETITION FOR SATELLITE-BASED NAVIGATION SYSTEM SERVICES Robert F. Donnelly Old Dominion University, 2012 Director: Dr. Regina Karp The goal of this work is to review the current state of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) development and its potential impact on the social, economic, and political dynamics of the various states fielding the systems. The most recognizable GNSS is the US GPS. It is the only operational system functioning at the time of this writing and has become part of the global commons. GPS, by virtue of its uniqueness, is considered the 'gold standard' of satellite based positioning, navigation, and timing systems. This uniqueness has also enabled the US to fully capitalize on the sizable economic dividends gained by the US technology sector from the development and sales of GPS user equipment and services. This work argues that the emergence of three global peer competitors to GPS is going to usher in a changed international relations environment for those new players. The economic implications go beyond a simple return on investment and could represent the continued space science and technical competitiveness of these states or not. The international political ramifications of the success or failure of the particular GNSSs could have a greater impact on the current international order than has been previously considered. The European Union, Russia, and China have become inexorably locked in a contest of domestic political will to field the next generation of GNSS in order to free themselves from US GPS domination and at the same time gain economic advantage over the other in space system technologies. Concurrently, the US is endeavoring to field the next generation of GPS and maintain its dominance in the associated technologies linked to GPS. V ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS It has been a long and convoluted journey to this point of my project. Deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan both interrupted my efforts to finish what I had started in any timely fashion. But finish I did with many lessons learned along the way; the most important being that I now recognize that there is rarely one right answer for anything. That was a lesson learned late in life for me. The original genesis for this work came from Dr. Regina Karp, Department Chairman and my Advisor. Therefore, I would like to begin by thanking her. Dr. Karp spent more time than was necessary reviewing the work as it progressed in her capacity as Committee Chair. I appreciate that she was tough when she needed to be and was almost singlehandedly responsible for me finishing this work. She is a true professional and a great credit to herself and to ODU. Appreciation goes to Dr. Simon Serfaty (who can stand with the best of them), Dr. Kurt Taylor Gaubatz, Dr. Steve Yetiv, Dr. Jie Chen, and Dr. David Earnest for giving me such a wide scope of tools and showing me how to use them. I also want to thank Drs. David Selover and Jan Andersson for agreeing to be my Committee Members. I appreciate their willingness to support me and for having great ideas for follow-on work in my field. I am also indebted to Dr. Aaron Karp for his sage advice and direction on what works and what doesn't when crafting a large research project. I could not continue without acknowledging some of the supporting players who have offered a hand when necessary to keep me focused. First, I thank my wife, vi Amanda, who made sure I stayed on top of the papers over the years and urged me to finish the project. I also want to thank Colonels Jeff "Talley" Waechter and Mark "Clem" Clements from the Joint Forces Staff College for being the greatest workmates and supporters that any person could ask for. I can't forget Colonels Bill "Bigfoot" Eliason and Ian Ferguson of the Marine Corps who were always willing to talk about my topic and provide comments. And to our boss, Colonel Gary Harper, who let us be us and led an inspired team for it. Thanks also to Will Patterson, Anna Rulska, Daniel Kuthy, Kim Gilligan, Vessela Zakarova, Britta Rinehard, Vlad Galushko, Jack Covarrubias, Matus Dobsovic, Stephanie Smith, and Molly McKnight for their assistance and good cheer. I wish them the very best into the future. vii TABLE OF CONTENTS Chapter Page I. INTRODUCTION 1 A. PURPOSE 1 B. LITERATURE REVIEW 5 C. UNITED STATES 14 D. THE EUROPEAN UNION 16 E. RUSSIA AND CHINA WITH MENTION OF JAPAN AND INDIA 18 II. NAVSTAR GPS 24 A. INTRODUCTION 24 B. OVERVIEW GPS 26 C. NATIONAL SECURITY INTERESTS 45 D. DOMESTIC POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC IMPACT 61 E. TRANSATLANTIC IMPACT 74 F. FUTURE CONSIDERATIONS 80 G. CONCLUSION 86 III. GALILEO 91 A. INTRODUCTION 91 B. THE EUROPEAN SPACE AGENCY (ESA) 92 C. GALILEO COMES TO LIFE 99 D. DOMESTIC AND POLITICAL IMPACT 122 E. EUROPEAN NATIONAL SECURITY 134 F. POST PPP 155 G. CONCLUSION 161 IV. GNSS COMPETITION 164 A. INTRODUCTION 164 B. GLONASS 166 C. COMPASS/BEIDOU 194 D. QZSS 212 E. IRNSS 218 F. CONCLUSION 223 V. ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSIONS 226 A. INTRODUCTION 226 B. THE EUROPEAN UNION 227 C. RUSSIA 238 viii Page D. CHINA 241 E. INDIA AND JAPAN 245 F. THE UNITED STATES 246 BIBLIOGRAPHY 253 APPENDIX 1 ! 266 VITA 267 1 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION A. PURPOSE A popular TV show from the 1960's used to call space the 'final frontier' and then went on to tickle viewer's imaginations with the possibilities of using outer space as a place for commerce and settlement. Now, fifty years later, mankind has a semi­ permanent settlement in the International Space Station and we the people are increasingly using satellites for global commerce. Part of the significance of this research project is to look at how a global increase in space-based commerce is affecting international relations. We can only guess if the current trend of global states seeking space power status will mimic the race of states to colonize during the 19th Century with its corresponding levels of competition and conflict. There are no traditional boundaries in space and so far space has not been weaponized but it is being commercialized. One of the manifestations of space exploration is that we now have thousands of space vehicles and their detritus traveling around in Earth orbit while the various space states continue to build and launch new systems into those same orbits. Part of that expansion of space vehicles will come from a significant expansion of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) being deployed into space over the next ten years or so. This growth is going to mean hundreds of additional satellites launched into space over the life of these systems. This growth also represents tens of thousands of high tech jobs for participating states, the possibility of increases in state prestige and power, and the specter of future competition or conflict. 2 What is a GNSS and why is it an important topic of research? A GNSS is a collection of satellites in space orbit, a series of ground control and monitoring stations, and user receiver equipment that are designed to work together and provide accurate positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) information to a user. At the base level, each satellite is programmed to send out a continuous stream of signals from space that will provide location information to a receiving device that has the ability to process the signals. System operation is, of course, exponentially more complex than that but for the purposes of this study it is no more than signals emanating from space and being processed on the ground to provide a specific location outcome. A navigation system installed in a motor vehicle is probably the most well-known application for a GNSS. However, that is only one of a great many applications for these systems that also include mining, agriculture, oil drilling, surveying, mapping, cell phone, banking, military, and a host of others. It is so ubiquitous that it is now considered part of the global commons. Why then, if it is so common across the globe, do we study it from an international relations perspective? The purpose of this research is to examine the current state of GNSS development and determine why various states have decided to build new and independent systems when there are other systems freely available for use.
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