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Let's Make a Deal – the Monty Hall Problem
Simulation and Statistical Exploration of Data (Let’s Make a Deal – The Monty Hall Problem), using the new ClassPad300-technology Ludwig Paditz, University of Applied Sciences Dresden (FH), Germany Statement of the Problem The Monty Hall problem involves a classical game show situation and is named after Monty Hall*), the long-time host of the TV game show Let's Make a Deal. There are three doors labeled 1, 2, and 3. A car is behind one of the doors, while goats are behind the other two: The rules are as follows: 1. The player selects a door. 2. The host selects a different door and opens it. 3. The host gives the player the option of switching from the original choice to the remaining closed door. 4. The door finally selected by the player is opened and he either wins or loses. By the help of the ClassPad300 we will simulate N (say N=100) such game show situations to see, if the option of switching the door is a good or a bad option to improve the chance to win. The experiments help our students better to understand the randomness and the statistic methods of every day life. *) Monty Hall was born on August 25, 1924 in Canada. Hall attended the University of Manitoba, graduating in 1945, and served in the Canadian Army during World War II. He immigrated to the United States in 1955, and for the next few years worked in radio and television for the NBC and CBS networks. In 1963, Hall began as emcee for the game show Let's Make a Deal, the role that would make him famous. -
North American Chinese Newsline
North American Chinese Newsline Distribution to Chinese language publications in the U.S. and Canada, with selected Chinese websites in Hong Kong and Taiwan. In addition, the circuit features the following complimentary added-value services: . Posting to online services and portals with a complimentary ReleaseWatch report. Distribution in Simple and Traditional Chinese. 353 Points Media distribution - USA (243) AZ-Phoenix (2) Arizona Chinese News Asian American Times 亞省時報 Phoenix AZ AZ-Tucson (1) 亞美報 Phoenix AZ Tucson Chinese News CA-Los Angeles Metro (50) 華人通訊 Tucson AZ ACWang.com Agape Herald ATV USA 美國華人網 Chino Hills CA Auto World Advertising Monthly Magazine 愛聲報 Rowland Heights CA Auto World Advertising Weekly Magazine 亞洲電視 City of Industry CA CA Chinese.org 汽車世界廣告雜志月刊 Rosemead CA China Post 汽車世界廣告雜志周刊 Rosemead CA Chinese Daily News [World Journal L.A. Bureau] 加州華人 Los Angeles CA Chinese Outreach AM 1470 新生報 San Gabriel CA Chinese Restaurant News 中華日報 Monterey Park CA Chinese Television Network (CTN) - Los Angeles 佳音社(國‧粵語廣播) AM 1470 Arcadia CA Chinese Web Magazine 中餐通訊 Rosemead CA East Entertainment Inc 傳訊電視洛杉磯分社 Monterey Park CA EDI City Magazine Weekly Southern California Edition 網路世界 City of Industry CA Epoch Times Southern California Edition 東方娛樂 San Marino CA ETTV (formerly BNE Television) 城市雜誌南加州版 Pasadena CA FEBC Far East Broadcasting Company 大紀元時報南加州日報 San Gabriel CA Focus on the Chinese Family 世華電視网 City of Industry CA Health & Life Weekly 遠東廣播公司 La Mirada CA Herald Monthly 中國家庭聚焦 Diamond Bar CA Hwa Guang TV 醫藥与生活周刊 Baldwin Park CA I Entertainment Magazine 號角 San Gabriel CA IFTV 華光電視台 Monterey Park CA International Daily News - Los Angeles (HQ) 娛樂天地 City of Industry CA KALI AM / KALI FM 國際家庭電視 Gardena CA KAZN AM1300 Radio Chinese 國際日報洛杉磯總部 Monterey Park CA KMNY AM1600 Chinese News & Money Radio KALI AM / KALI FM中文廣播電台 Pasadena CA KMRB AM1430 Sino Radio Broadcast Corp. -
Puzzling Game of Life” Production Notes -Page 1
“The Puzzling Game of Life” Production Notes -Page 1 THE PUZZLING GAME OF LIFE Production Notes A four-act skit, using various game show formats to provide the setting for the main character to progress in her spiritual journey. SUMMARY: Suzy Christian finds herself on a journey in “The Game of Life.” Each game show that she participates in is another step in her spiritual journey, where she faces trials and temptations as well as growth and victory.. THEME: The retreat theme was “God Meant It For Good” and the theme verse was Romans 8:28. The visual theme was puzzle pieces, all fitting together. In this skit, we see puzzling things happening to Suzy Christian, and she doesn’t understand why she is experiencing trials. But the skit attempts to show how God is using even those difficult experiences in our life for our good and the good of others. THEME VERSE: “And we know that all things work together for good to those who love God, to those who are the called according to His purpose.” Romans 8:28 CHARACTERS: (Note: There are only a few main characters in this skit (marked with asterisk (*). All of the remaining characters are minor characters. One person could easily take the role of one of the minor characters in each act. But this is a great opportunity to assign small roles, appearing in only one act, to people and see how they handle being on stage.) *Rod Sterling Narrator *Guy Smiley - obnoxious game show host, who greatly exaggerates some of his lines (which are capitalized in the script) in a sarcastic manner *Suzy Christian - a woman, wife and mother who has recently become a Christian. -
Discrete Probability Distributions Random Variables
Discrete Probability Distributions Random Variables • A variable that associates a number with the outcome of a random experiment is called a random variable. • Notation: random variable is denoted by an uppercase letter, such as X. After the experiment is conducted, the measured value is denoted by a lowercase letter, such a x. Both X and x are shown in italics, e.g., P(X=x). Sec 2‐8 Random Variables 2 Continuous & Discrete Random Variables • A discrete random variable is usually integer number – N ‐ the number of p53 proteins in a cell – D ‐ the number of nucleotides different between two sequences • A continuous random variable is a real number – C=N/V – the concentration of p53 protein in a cell of volume V – Percentage (D/L)*100% of different nucleotides in protein sequences of different lengths L (depending on the set of L’s may be discrete but dense) Sec 2‐8 Random Variables 3 Probability Mass Function (PMF) • I want to compare all 4‐ mers in a pair of human genomes • X – random variable: the number of nucleotide Probability Mass Function for differences in a given 4‐ the # of mismatches in 4‐mers mer P(X =0) = 0.6561 • Probability Mass Function: P(X =1) = 0.2916 f(x) or P(X=x) –the P(X =2) = 0.0486 probability that the # of P(X =3) = 0.0036 P(X =4) = 0.0001 SNPs is exactly equal to x Σx P(X=x)= 1.0000 4 Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) P(X≤x) P(X>x) 0.6561 0.3439 0.9477 0.0523 0.9963 0.0037 0.9999 0.0001 1.0000 0.0000 CDF: P(X ≤ 3) = P(X=0) + P(X=1) + P(X=2) + P(X=3) = 0.9999 Complementary cumulative distribution function (tail distribution) CCDF: P(X >3) =1‐ P(X ≤ 3) =0.0001 5 Mean or Expected Value of X The mean or expected value of the discrete random variable X, denoted as or EX, is EX xPX x xf x xx • The mean = the weighted average of all possible values of X. -
Safetaxi Americas Coverage List – 21S5 Cycle
SafeTaxi Americas Coverage List – 21S5 Cycle Brazil Acre Identifier Airport Name City State SBCZ Cruzeiro do Sul International Airport Cruzeiro do Sul AC SBRB Plácido de Castro Airport Rio Branco AC Alagoas Identifier Airport Name City State SBMO Zumbi dos Palmares International Airport Maceió AL Amazonas Identifier Airport Name City State SBEG Eduardo Gomes International Airport Manaus AM SBMN Ponta Pelada Military Airport Manaus AM SBTF Tefé Airport Tefé AM SBTT Tabatinga International Airport Tabatinga AM SBUA São Gabriel da Cachoeira Airport São Gabriel da Cachoeira AM Amapá Identifier Airport Name City State SBMQ Alberto Alcolumbre International Airport Macapá AP Bahia Identifier Airport Name City State SBIL Bahia-Jorge Amado Airport Ilhéus BA SBLP Bom Jesus da Lapa Airport Bom Jesus da Lapa BA SBPS Porto Seguro Airport Porto Seguro BA SBSV Deputado Luís Eduardo Magalhães International Airport Salvador BA SBTC Hotéis Transamérica Airport Una BA SBUF Paulo Afonso Airport Paulo Afonso BA SBVC Vitória da Conquista/Glauber de Andrade Rocha Vitória da Conquista BA Ceará Identifier Airport Name City State SBAC Aracati/Aeroporto Regional de Aracati Aracati CE SBFZ Pinto Martins International Airport Fortaleza CE SBJE Comandante Ariston Pessoa Cruz CE SBJU Orlando Bezerra de Menezes Airport Juazeiro do Norte CE Distrito Federal Identifier Airport Name City State SBBR Presidente Juscelino Kubitschek International Airport Brasília DF Espírito Santo Identifier Airport Name City State SBVT Eurico de Aguiar Salles Airport Vitória ES *Denotes -
The Monty Hall Problem
The Monty Hall Problem Richard D. Gill Mathematical Institute, University of Leiden, Netherlands http://www.math.leidenuniv.nl/∼gill 17 March, 2011 Abstract A range of solutions to the Monty Hall problem is developed, with the aim of connecting popular (informal) solutions and the formal mathematical solutions of in- troductory text-books. Under Riemann's slogan of replacing calculations with ideas, we discover bridges between popular solutions and rigorous (formal) mathematical solutions by using various combinations of symmetry, symmetrization, independence, and Bayes' rule, as well as insights from game theory. The result is a collection of intuitive and informal logical arguments which can be converted step by step into formal mathematics. The Monty Hall problem can be used simultaneously to develop probabilistic intuition and to give a deeper understanding of the paradox, not just to provide a routine exercise in computation of conditional probabilities. Simple insights from game theory can be used to prove probability inequalities. Acknowledgement: this text is the result of an evolution through texts written for three internet encyclopedias (wikipedia.org, citizendium.org, statprob.com) and each time has benefitted from the contributions of many other editors. I thank them all, for all the original ideas in this paper. That leaves only the mistakes, for which I bear responsibility. 1 Introduction Imagine you are a guest in a TV game show. The host, a certain Mr. Monty Hall, shows you three large doors and tells you that behind one of the doors there is a car while behind the other two there are goats. You want to win the car. -
Television Programs
WEEK'S C PLETE TELEVISION PROGRAMS THE SUNDAY NORTH JERSEY'S ONLY WEEKLY PICTORIAL MAGAZINE News Highlightsof • ** * Clifton i _• __ East Paterson Fair Lawn ..... C arfield Haledon Hawthorne Lodi L'ffle Falls =====================...................... -.": ?:!:!:!:%i•iiiiii?.i•!ii...;:.:.•ii.i!:i•!i:i:..'.-:::::::::..•!:!-'.:: ounfain.View ================================:.-'.::::..'::p.::•;- orfh Haledon P•erson Passaic ....... Pompton Lakes ........... ...................... ..,....... Prospect Park ....... ::.-.:•:::•:::•::!!i!iiii•!i!•!•iii•i•i•;i?:i•i•!•iiii!i•i!!!iiiii•!iiiiii•iii?•i:•ii•... ..........................................:.... ......... ................... Singac ........... Tofowa ........... '"':"??!i?::;i:i'7.COURTESY'OF::.TFIE: G'AœL'ERY::OF,FINEARTS,.'YALE UNIVERS _ Wayne West Paterson ULY 3, 1960 VOL. XXXII, No. 27 Mother's the One on the Left 435 STRAIGHT STREET PA'fEKSON, N.J. M•berry 4-7880 Gift Department Living Roo• Bedrooms- Bedding Dining Rooms . ?•'* C•rpe-ting .appliances THE IDEAL PLACE TO DINE AND WINE ßKITCHEN- '., ..Id , •, i••i .• ..... !•. i'::i:i BROILED LOBSTER • -- DAILY fROGS' L,•GS - •rT SHB'•b CRAu•- B.•UErl8H - RAINBOW TROUT - HALIBUT - SAbMON - SHRi•P8- ECAbbOPB- OTST•S - CLAM - COD •I•H - •WORO •lffiM - DAlbT -.•.•..x•.,.:::.::.::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ..•:. ..-%.'.,%.: -:-. "-: •.•.• -.-----::::.:.:...-...::':.:: .-.•.-..-. :::.;-..:: ::•: . ,.-.---.•::::,-- -•: .• :: .... BELMONTAVE. ICor. Barbansi, HALEDON - - - ;.-'.•-.•i•%1•:-.i:.-.•?".:•.......¾• •:'.-- ß:'.i:•' -
Mmmtill SAN BERNARDINO R/UDAT
mMm till —m • « » • lift ••-• PV i '-•Si SAN BERNARDINO R/UDAT NA9127 .S248S35 1981 REGIONAL URBAN DESIGN ASSISTANCE TEAM/AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF ARCHITECTS/OCTOBER 8-12, 1981 .- —**<•«*•*?••>» isms vivf^s^^mSsSSSS^i^^^^SBSStSKSSS^ I JMHififi'aiffii?fs^iff •- ""-^--i* •+•-».«** • -~;:^>:-*. *-.•.*> [«•"!»IV*'•"•-'•••-' HHS!3«^9^BSEg?wH3B8MSBMn sfflBBW '. 'JU'I_Jl M* it '"THE" ' i i • ifcj 1H -"r'•'•':„ /,,«~ri~,^~w:^'3!3w*3^ • "'i"'—*^-* ; :*£*? lP sffi&9i?©5SV^^. i "^j:. - •HH fc^*;^^^ •' **^ S**\ "T^ *• •••••••••I •?.-$ Hll m WSBm p 1 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION 4 ISSUES 8 RECOMMENDATIONS 10 CONTEXT 12 PROCESS FOR COMMUNITY CONSENSUS 16 ORGANIZING FOR GROWTH 19 PHYSICAL PLANNING COMPONENTS 36 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 50 eft to bo < 5 I INTRODUCTION WHAT IS R/UDAT AND WHY ARE THEY HERE? The Urban Planning and Design committee of The visit is a four-day, labor-intensive the American. Institute of Architects has process in which the members must quickly been sending Urban Design Assistance Teams assimilate facts, evaluate the existing to various American Cities since 1967. situation and arrive at a plan of action. The format of the visit consists of air, The San Bernardino Team is the 71st such automobile and bus tours to determine the team to be invited into a specific area to visual situation first hand; community deal with environmental and urban problems meeting and interviews to generate user which range in scale from a region to a input and to build community support; brain small town, and in type from recreational storming sessions to determine a direction areas to public policy and implementation and to develop implementable solutions; methods. -
Responses to Modified Monty Hall Dilemmas in Capuchin Monkeys, Rhesus Macaques, and Humans
2018, 31 David Washburn Special Issue Editor** Peer-reviewed Responses to Modified Monty Hall Dilemmas in Capuchin Monkeys, Rhesus Macaques, and Humans Julia Watzek*1, Will Whitham1, David A. Washburn1-2, and Sarah F. Brosnan1-3 1Department of Psychology, Language Research Center, Georgia State University 2Neuroscience Institute, Georgia State University 3Department of Philosophy, Center for Behavioral Neuroscience, Georgia State University The Monty Hall Dilemma (MHD) is a simple probability puzzle famous for its counterintuitive solution. Participants initially choose among three doors, one of which conceals a prize. A different door is opened and shown not to contain the prize. Participants are then asked whether they would like to stay with their original choice or switch to the other remaining door. Although switching doubles the chances of winning, people overwhelmingly choose to stay with their original choice. To assess how experience and the chance of winning affect decisions in the MHD, we used a comparative approach to test 264 college students, 24 capuchin monkeys, and 7 rhesus macaques on a nonverbal, computerized version of the game. Participants repeatedly experienced the outcome of their choices and we varied the chance of winning by changing the number of doors (3 or 8). All species quickly and consistently switched doors, especially in the eight-door condition. After the computer task, we presented humans with the classic text version of the MHD to test whether they would generalize the successful switch strategy from the computer task. Instead, participants showed their characteristic tendency to stick with their pick, regardless of the number of doors. This disconnect between strategies in the classic version and a repeated nonverbal task with the same underlying probabilities may arise because they evoke different decision-making processes, such as explicit reasoning versus implicit learning. -
Roberts, William J. Collection
http://oac.cdlib.org/findaid/ark:/13030/c8fb53gd No online items Guide to the Roberts, William J. Collection Finding Aid Authors: Claire Balch and Pam Crenshaw of Vanguard University. © Copyright 2012 David Allan Hubbard Library Archives. All rights reserved. 135 N. Oakland Avenue Pasadena, CA, 91182-0002 URL: http://library.fuller.edu/archives/ Email: [email protected] Phone: (626) 584-5311 Fax: (626) 584-5613 Guide to the Roberts, William J. CFT00033 1 Collection Guide to the Roberts, William J. Collection 1952/2004 David Allan Hubbard Library Archives Overview of the Collection Collection Title: Roberts, William J. Collection Bulk Dates: 1958-1986 Identification: CFT00033 Creator: Roberts, William J., 1952-2004 Physical Description: 66.00 Language of Materials: English Repository: David Allan Hubbard Library Archives 135 N. Oakland Avenue Pasadena, CA, 91182-0002 URL: http://library.fuller.edu/archives/ Email: [email protected] Phone: (626) 584-5311 Fax: (626) 584-5613 Administrative History: William J. Roberts was born in a covered wagon June 1, 1909 in Twin Falls, Idaho. He is the son of crop-sharing parents who came as pioneers from the state of Kansas. At seventeen years of age he and his older brother felt the call of the Lord and came to Southern California to study at the Southern California Bible School now known as Vanguard University. His career in radio is outlined below: 1935: Began his radio ministry – “Gospel and Song”, KFWB Hollywood California. 1945: Initiated the Dr. Roberts and family broadcast, “Family Bible Hour,” KGER, Long Beach, California. 1960: Joined with “Bible Fellowship Hour,” networked in U. -
58Th Southern California Journalism Awards Bill Rosendahl Public Service Award
FIFTY-EIGHTH ANNUAL5 SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA8 JOURNALISM AWARDS LOS ANGELES PRESS CLUB JRNLad_LA Press Club Ad_2016.qxp_W&L 6/16/16 11:43 PM Page 1 We are proud to salute our valued comrade-in-arms ERIN BROCKOVICH Upon her receipt of the Los Angeles Press Club’s BILL ROSENDAHL PUBLIC SERVICE AWARD Erin is America’s consumer advocate and passionate crusader for environmental accountability from corporations and government. We are privileged to work side-by-side with her on so many essential causes, and look forward to many more years of mutual dedication to the prime interests of our fellow citizens. With great respect and gratitude, PERRY WEITZ ARTHUR M. LUXENBERG 212.558.5500 W E I T Z LUXENBERG www.weitzlux.com 7 0 0 B R O A D W A Y | N E W Y O R K , N Y 1 0&0 0 3 | B R A N C H O F F I C E S I N N E W J E R S E Y & C A L I F O R N I A th 58 ANNUAL SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA JOURNALISM AWARDS A Message From the President Celebrating a Record-Shattering Year Welcome to the 58th Annual Southern California Journalism Awards! Tonight we celebrate the efforts of all our nominees, whose work was selected from a record-shattering 1,011 submissions. The achievements of those receiving our highest honorary awards tonight are nothing less than astounding. Our President’s Award goes to Jarl Mohn, who is being recognized for his tremendous impact on television and radio networks, and who now serves as President and CEO of NPR. -
PROFILES in PURPOSE CBU Brand Represents 58 Years of Heritage and Countless Stories of Faith in Action California Baptist University C H O I R & O R C H E S T R a Dr
CALIFORNIA BAPTIST UNIVERSITY N O VE m B ER 2008 • VOLU m E 53 • ISSUE 3 PROFILES IN PURPOSE CBU brand represents 58 years of heritage and countless stories of faith in action California Baptist University C h o i r & o r C h e s t r a Dr. Gary Bonner, Conductor Presents an Evening of Delightful Christmas Music friDay, DeCemBer 12, 2008 | 7:30 pm Tickets available for $20 donation The Grove Community Church | Riverside, California For more information call satUrDay, DeCemBer 13, 2008 | 6:00 pm 951.343.4251 Harvest Christian Fellowship Church | Riverside, California C h o i r & o r C h e s t r a index of contents NVEO m B ER 2 0 0 8 the roundtable CALIFORNIA BAPTIST UNIVERSITY N O VE m B ER 2008 • VOLU m E 53 • ISSUE 3 EDITOR: Dr. Mark A. Wyatt MANAGING EDITOR: Karen Bergh ASSOCIATE EDITOR: Jeremy Zimmerman ART DIRECTOR: Edgar Garcia PHOTOGRAPHY: Michael J. Elderman, Kenton Jacobsen, Michael Kitada, Enoch Kim, Dr. Mark A. Wyatt, Trever Hoehne CONTRIBUTING WRITER(S): Micah McDaniel, David Noblett, Kendall DeWitt, Cynthia Wright, Carrie Smith SUBSCRIPTION INQUIRIES: California Baptist University 04 05 Division of Institutional Advancement PRESIDENT’S mESSAGE CBU NEwS Carrie Smith [email protected] 951.343.4439 ALUMNI AND DONOR INFORMATION: Division of Institutional Advancement 800.782.3382 www.calbaptist.edu/ia ADMISSIONS AND INFORMATION Department of Admissions 8432 Magnolia Avenue 08 10 Riverside, CA 92504-3297 [mIND], body AND SPIRIT CBU faculty 877.228.8866 The Roundtable is published three times annually for the alumni and friends of California Baptist University.