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Parker Vascik Dual Masters Thesis

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Parker Vascik Dual Masters Thesis Systems-Level Analysis of On Demand Mobility for Aviation by Parker D. Vascik B.S. Aerospace Engineering – Georgia Institute of Technology, 2014 Submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics and the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degrees of Master of Science in Aeronautics and Astronautics Master of Science in Technology and Policy at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology February 2017 © 2017 Massachusetts Institute of Technology. All rights reserved. Signature of Author: Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society January 27, 2017 Certified by: R. John Hansman T. Wilson Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics Thesis Supervisor Certified by: Donna H. Rhodes Principal Research Scientist, Sociotechnical Systems Research Center Thesis Co-Advisor Certified by: Olivier de Weck Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics Academic Advisor Accepted by: Youssef M. Marzouk Associate Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics Chair, Graduate Program Committee, Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics Accepted by: Munther Dahleh W. Coolidge Professor of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science Director, Institute for Data, Systems, and Society 2 Systems-Level Analysis of On Demand Mobility for Aviation by Parker D. Vascik Submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics and the Institute for Data, Systems, and Society on January 27, 2017 in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degrees of Master of Science in Aeronautics and Astronautics Master of Science in Technology and Policy Abstract On Demand Mobility (ODM) is an emerging transportation concept that leverages pervasive telecommunication connectivity to enable the real-time matching of consumers with transportation service providers. Having experienced rapid adoption in ground transportation markets, numerous entities are now investigating opportunities to provide aircraft-based ODM within metropolitan areas. Previous research efforts have focused primarily on the technical capabilities of novel electric propulsion aircraft and sought to characterize the market potential for these vehicles. This thesis complements these initial efforts by adopting a broad view of anticipated aircraft-based ODM services to identify operational constraints and evaluate near and far-term mitigation opportunities. A systems-level analysis was used to capture interdisciplinary influence factors such as limitations placed on ODM networks as a result of air traffic control, ground infrastructure integration, network load balancing, unmanned aircraft interaction and community noise, among others. The holistic considerations of this analysis extend beyond the traditional conceptual design disciplines of engineering and business to include evaluative perspective from the legal, policy, urban planning and sustainability domains. The first order, systems-level analysis approach for early-phase conceptual design developed in this thesis was applied to a case study in Los Angeles. Promising markets were identified based upon current commuting and wealth patterns. A notional concept of operations was then applied to twelve reference missions within these markets. Scrutiny of these missions revealed a variety of operational challenges from which five preeminent constraints were derived. These constraints may limit or prohibit ODM aircraft operations and include ground infrastructure availability, aircraft noise emissions and air traffic control scalability. Furthermore, significant legal and policy challenges were identified related to low altitude flight, environmental impacts and community acceptance. Findings from this thesis may support the ODM community to develop a system architecting plan that directs technology investments, stakeholder negotiations and network implementation so as to overcome the identified constraints and avoid or internalize negative externalities. Thesis Supervisor: Dr. R. John Hansman Title: T. Wilson Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics Thesis Co-Advisor: Dr. Donna H. Rhodes Title: Principal Research Scientist, Sociotechnical Systems Research Center 3 Note to the Readers This thesis seeks to assess the feasibility of implementing On Demand Mobility (ODM) services for aviation in major U.S. cities. In order to assess this new technology’s operational potential, a holistic approach was developed that identifies operational constraints during early-phase conceptual design and evaluates various mitigation options. Beyond traditional technical feasibility and market considerations, the constraint identification approach considers additional domains such as regulatory and legal interactions, community acceptance, environmental impact, and system interfaces in order to identify a more complete set of potential constraints that arise when introducing a novel technology into society. The approach is applied in full to a case study of ODM for aviation in the Los Angeles basin. Considering the joint methodological and practical applications of the work and findings contained in this thesis, an effort was made to draft the document with three audiences in mind: 1. Existing Market Leaders and Prospective New Entrants: Disruptive technologies present a potential threat to established market players and an opportunity for prospective new entrants. The findings and systems approach presented in this thesis may help ascertain the maturity of a new technology or concept. Such an analysis could allow for more well informed decisions concerning when acquisition or investment action should be taken, and a better understanding of the system interface risks associated with a new technology. In terms of ODM for aviation, current helicopter operators and new ODM aircraft operators may both benefit from the set of constraints identified in this thesis that must be addressed to make this a profitable, scalable industry. Current helicopter operators may perceive opportunities to integrate the new vehicle technologies into their current fleet and operations. New ODM operators may perceive early adopter markets that are accessible in the near future. Finally, airspace service providers, ground infrastructure developers and surface transportation operators, among others, may also recognize opportunities to enter into this new industry. 2. Technology Investors: In many cases novel or highly innovative, potentially disruptive technologies are fostered not through traditional funding streams and large company R&D, but rather through angel or venture capital investments. Technology investors could leverage the constraint identification approach presented in this thesis to better perceive the various challenges or limitations of a proposed technology or service during early- phase conceptual design. Therefore, it is perceived this analysis approach may become an important part of any due diligence effort and investment pitch. Regarding ODM Aviation, millions of dollars have been invested from both private equity and industry to create the underpinnings of this seedling industry. Over 15 entities have announced plans or began in earnest to develop vehicles geared for this market. The findings of this research may be useful to identify which entities have developed credible plans to address the wide range of challenges they face for entry into their intended market. 3. Government: NASA and the FAA have had a historic role in advancing the concepts of flight through advanced technology development, deployment or regulation. The findings and systems approach presented in this thesis have the potential to better enable these or 4 other government entities to fulfill this role. The capability to identify a holistic set of constraints during early-phase conceptual design may support government entities to develop and validate technology roadmaps, regulatory schemes, and development programs. Specifically considering NASA and the FAA’s role in urban air mobility, this research reinforces the investments made by both agencies in noise reduction technologies and operations. Furthermore, this work identifies how NASA’s unmanned aircraft system traffic management (UTM) program may provide significant value to both unmanned aircraft system and ODM operators by integrating with the FAA’s NextGen Air Traffic Control system to enhance low altitude flight operations management. It is hoped that readers from within and beyond these three audiences will all find benefit from the analysis approach and case study presented in this thesis. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration under grant number NNX14AT14H issued through the NASA Education Aeronautics Scholarship Program, as well as contract NNL16AA58T. Opinions, interpretations, conclusions and recommendations are those of the author and not necessarily endorsed by the United States Government. Biographical Note Parker Vascik earned a Bachelor’s degree in Aerospace Engineering from the Georgia Institute of Technology in 2014 with a minor in leadership studies. Through the co-op program at Georgia Tech he spent three semesters working in Indianapolis on gas turbine engines with Roll-Royce North America. Parker was also a NASA Aeronautics Scholar and spent his summers at various research centers and NASA headquarters working on hypersonic airbreathing propulsion, alternative aviation fuels and unmanned aircraft system traffic management. Through these experiences Parker
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