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Climate Change: We Are at Risk

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Climate Change: We Are at Risk Standing Senate Comité sénatorial Committee on permanent de Agriculture and Forestry l’agriculture et des forêts CLIMATE CHANGE: WE ARE AT RISK FINAL REPORT The Honourable Donald Oliver, Q.C. Chair The Honourable John Wiebe Deputy Chair November 2003 MEMBERSHIP THE STANDING SENATE COMMITTEE ON AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY The Honourable Senators Liberals Conservatives *Sharon Carstairs, P.C. (or Robichaud, P.C.) Leonard Gustafson Thelma Chalifoux Marjory LeBreton Joseph A. Day, P.Eng. *John Lynch-Staunton, P.C. (or Kinsella) Joyce Fairbairn, P.C. Donald Oliver, Q.C. (Chair) Elizabeth Hubley David Tkachuk Laurier L. LaPierre Pierrette Ringuette John (Jack) Wiebe (Deputy Chair) (*Ex officio members) Acting Clerk of the Committee Keli Hogan Analysts from the Research Branch, Library of Parliament Frédéric Forge Lorie Srivastava Jean-Luc Bourdages Note: The Honourable Senators Raynell Andreychuk; Pat Carney; Jane Cordy; Marisa Ferretti Barth; Joan Fraser; Jean Lapointe; Shirley Maheu; Frank Mahovlich; Lorna Milne; Wilfred P. Moore and David P. Smith also served on the Committee. ORDER OF REFERENCE Extract of the Journals of the Senate, Thursday, October 31, 2002: The Honourable Senator Wiebe moved, seconded by the Honourable Senator Chalifoux: That the Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry be authorized to examine the impact of climate change on Canada’s agriculture, forests and rural communities and the potential adaptation options focusing on primary production, practices, technologies, ecosystems and other related areas; That the papers and evidence received and taken on the subject and the work accomplished by the Standing Senate Committee on Agriculture and Forestry during the First Session of the Thirty-Seventh Parliament be referred to the Committee and; That the Committee submit its final report no later than December 31, 2003. The question being put on the motion, it was adopted. Paul C. Bélisle Clerk of the Senate TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE FOREWORD LIST OF RECOMMENDATIONS ....................................................................................... 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY.................................................................................................... 3 CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION..................................................................................... 11 The Saguenay Flood of 1996 ................................................................................ 11 The Red River Flood of 1997 ............................................................................... 11 The Ice Storm of 1998 .......................................................................................... 11 Droughts Since 1999............................................................................................. 12 Summer 2003.........................................................................................................12 What is Climate?................................................................................................... 12 Why is Climate Change Important?...................................................................... 13 Focus on Adaptation ............................................................................................. 13 CHAPTER 2: BACKGROUND ON CLIMATE CHANGE............................................ 15 A. Our Climate is Changing…............................................................................. 16 B. …And the Changes Will Affect Us ................................................................ 18 C. The Solution is to Reduce Emissions….......................................................... 20 1. The Kyoto Protocol............................................................................. 20 2. The Emissions Trading System........................................................... 21 3. The Decarbonization of Global Energy Systems................................ 22 D. ….And Adapt to the Effects............................................................................ 24 Summary............................................................................................................... 27 CHAPTER 3: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURE: WHAT DO WE KNOW? ................................................................................................. 29 A. Biophysical Effects of Climate Change on Canadian Agriculture.................. 29 B. Economics Effects of Climate Change on Canadian Agriculture................... 33 C. Adaptation Options for Agriculture ................................................................ 34 Summary............................................................................................................... 36 CHAPTER 4: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FORESTS: WHAT DO WE KNOW? ................................................................................................. 37 A. Biophysical Effects of Climate Change on Canada’s Forests......................... 38 B. Adaptation Options for Forestry ..................................................................... 42 Summary............................................................................................................... 45 CHAPTER 5: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON WATER.................................. 47 A. Effects of Climate Change on Water Resources............................................. 47 B. Water Stresses on Agriculture, Forestry and Rural Communities .................. 49 C. Adaptation Strategies For Water Resources ................................................... 51 Summary............................................................................................................... 52 CHAPTER 6: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RURAL COMMUNITIES ..... 53 Summary............................................................................................................... 56 CHAPTER 7: EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON ABORIGINAL PEOPLE........ 57 Summary............................................................................................................... 58 CHAPTER 8: WHAT DO WE NEED TO DO TO ADAPT?.......................................... 59 A. Research .......................................................................................................... 59 1. The Need for Integrated Research....................................................... 61 2. Areas of Research ............................................................................... 62 3. Fostering Research.............................................................................. 63 Summary............................................................................................................... 65 B. Communication............................................................................................... 66 1. A Clear Message at the Right Time .................................................... 66 2. A National Communication Strategy.................................................. 67 Summary............................................................................................................... 70 C. Government Policies and Programs................................................................ 70 1. Specific programs to Encourage Adaptation....................................... 71 2. Incorporation Climate Change into Existing Programs and Policies.. 71 Summary............................................................................................................... 74 CHAPTER 9: CONCLUSION – LESSONS LEARNED ................................................ 75 APPENDIX A: WITNESS LIST...................................................................................... 79 APPENDIX B: OTHER WRITTEN SUBMISSIONS RECEIVED ................................ 87 APPENDIX C: BIOGRAPHIES OF MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE .................... 89 LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AAFC Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada APF Agriculture Policy Framework C-CIARN Canadian Climate Change Impact and Adaptation Research Network CCAF Climate Change Action Fund CCPC Climate Change Plan for Canada CFA Canadian Federation of Agriculture CFS Canadian Forest Service CO2 Carbon dioxide GHG Greenhouse gas IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change N20 Nitrous oxide PARC Prairie Adaptation Research Collaborative PFRA Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration WISE Water Institute for Semi-arid Ecosystems FOREWORD From November 2002 to May 2003, the Senate Standing Committee on Agriculture and Forestry examined the effects of climate change on Canada’s agricultural and forestry sectors and rural communities. This study is a direct result of the Committee’s previous study, Canadian Farmers at Risk.1 As part of that study, the Committee travelled to the Maritimes to hear from farmers about their concerns. Farmers repeatedly expressed apprehension about changes in climate and were unsure as to how they could cope with – or adapt to – apparently new climate scenarios. After identifying the leading researchers in the field of climate change and adaptation in Canada and abroad, the Committee heard from witnesses at the forefront in this area from universities, research centres, and governments across Canada as well as internationally. The Committee took a country-wide approach and actively sought the views of farmer organizations, rural associations, ecotourism groups, and environmental and conservation organizations from all regions of Canada. The Committee held hearings in Ottawa and travelled to Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia (see the
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