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Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence: Ethical Concerns in An C O R P O R A T I O N FORREST E. MORGAN, BENJAMIN BOUDREAUX, ANDREW J. LOHN, MARK ASHBY, CHRISTIAN CURRIDEN, KELLY KLIMA, DEREK GROSSMAN Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence Ethical Concerns in an Uncertain World For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR3139-1 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available for this publication. ISBN: 978-1-9774-0492-3 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2020 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Cover: Drones: boscorelli/stock.adobe.com Data: Anatoly Stojko/stock.adobe.com Cover design: Rick Penn-Kraus Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Preface The research in this report was conducted over the course of one year, from October 2017 to September 2018. The completed report was originally delivered to the sponsor in October 2018. It was approved for public distribution in March 2020. Since the research was completed and delivered, new organizations have been created and important steps have been taken to address many of the topics the report describes. As a result, this report does not capture the current state of the topic at the time of publication. Although expert and public opinions may have shifted, we believe the report documents a useful view of perspectives. The field of artificial intelligence (AI) has advanced at an ever-increasing pace over the last two decades. Systems incorporating intelligent technologies have touched many aspects of the lives of citizens in the United States and other developed countries. It should be no wonder then that AI also offers great promise for national defense. A growing number of robotic vehicles and autonomous weapons can operate in areas too hazardous for human combatants. Intelligent defensive systems are increasingly able to detect, analyze, and respond to attacks faster and more effectively than human operators can. And big data analysis and decision support systems offer the promise of digesting volumes of information that no group of human analysts, however large, could consume and helping military decisionmakers choose better courses of action more quickly. But thoughtful people have expressed serious reservations about the legal and ethical implications of using AI in war or even to enhance security in peacetime. Anxieties about the prospects of “killer robots” run amok and facial recognition systems mistakenly labeling innocent citizens as criminals or terrorists are but a few of the concerns that are fueling national and international debate about these systems. These issues raise serious questions about the ethical implications of military applications of AI and the extent to which U.S. leaders should regulate their development or restrain their employment. But equally serious questions revolve around whether potential adversaries would be willing to impose comparable guidelines and restraints and, if not, whether the United States’ self-restraint might put it at a disadvantage in future conflicts. With these concerns in mind, the Director of Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Resources, Headquarters, United States Air Force (USAF), commissioned a fiscal year 2017 Project AIR FORCE study to help the Air Force understand the ethical implications of military applications of AI and how those capabilities might change the character of war. This report, which is one of the products of that study, seeks to answer the following questions: (1) What significant military applications of AI are currently available or expected to emerge in the next 10–15 years? (2) What legal, moral, or ethical issues would developing or employing such systems raise? (3) What significant military applications of AI are China and Russia currently iii pursuing? (4) Does China, Russia, or the United States have exploitable vulnerabilities due to ethical or cultural limits on the development or employment of military applications of AI? (5) How can USAF maximize the benefits potentially available from military applications of AI while mitigating the risks they entail? The research described in this report was conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE. RAND Project AIR FORCE RAND Project AIR FORCE (PAF), a division of the RAND Corporation, is USAF’s federally funded research and development (R&D) center for studies and analyses. PAF provides the Air Force with independent analyses of policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat readiness, and support of current and future air, space, and cyber forces. Research is conducted in four programs: Strategy and Doctrine; Force Modernization and Employment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; and Resource Management. The research reported here was prepared under contract FA7014-16-D-1000. Additional information about PAF is available on our website: www.rand.org/paf This report documents work originally shared with USAF on September 27, 2018. The draft report, issued on October 10, 2018, was reviewed by formal peer reviewers and USAF subject matter experts (SMEs). iv Table of Contents Preface ............................................................................................................................................ iii Figures........................................................................................................................................... vii Tables .............................................................................................................................................. x Summary ........................................................................................................................................ xi Acknowledgments ........................................................................................................................ xix Abbreviations ................................................................................................................................ xx 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 1 Background ................................................................................................................................. 2 Purpose and Scope ...................................................................................................................... 5 Methodology ............................................................................................................................... 6 Organization ................................................................................................................................ 7 2. The Military Applications of Artificial Intelligence ................................................................... 8 What Is Artificial Intelligence? ................................................................................................... 8 Autonomy and Automation ........................................................................................................ 9 Approaches to Control and Oversight ...................................................................................... 11 Recent Progress in Artificial Intelligence That Is Driving Military Applications .................... 13 Benefits of Artificial Intelligence in Warfare ........................................................................... 15 Risks of Artificial Intelligence in Warfare ............................................................................... 21 The Need for a Closer Examination of the Risks of Military Artificial Intelligence ............... 22 3. Risks of Military Artificial Intelligence: Ethical, Operational, and Strategic .......................... 24 Stakeholder Concerns About Military Artificial Intelligence ................................................... 24 Taxonomy of Artificial Intelligence Risks ............................................................................... 29 Perspectives on Mitigating Risks of Military Artificial Intelligence ........................................ 40 Conclusion ................................................................................................................................ 48 4. Military Artificial Intelligence in the United States ................................................................. 49 Brief History of Military Artificial Intelligence Development in the United States ................ 49 Mistakes
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