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Quarterly Property Report Quarterly Property Report DECEMBER 2019 QUARTERLY PROPERTY REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2019 2 Introduction Welcome to the latest Capital growth in office and a range of geopolitical edition of Banner Asset industrial property has slowed outcomes including further Management’s Quarterly somewhat after an extended improvements in US-China Property Report. period of strong growth but trade relations and the recently As we begin 2020, the remains high, and further averted no-deal Brexit. economy seems to have yield compression is expected In our Spotlight section, we turned a corner, with growth amid record low interest look at some of the key trends gradually increasing and rates, elevated infrastructure likely to influence the real the unemployment rate investment and rapid growth estate market in Australia 2 edging lower. in ecommerce . this year. The rebound in residential Still, notable downside risks to We hope you find these property prices has gained the economic outlook remain, insights useful. momentum, with dwelling with consumer spending values posting the biggest remaining subdued, business quarterly rise in a decade1, and consumer confidence boosted by muted supply weak, and expectations after a slowdown in of a sluggish pickup in construction activity. global growth hinging on 1 CoreLogic Monthly Housing & Economic Chart Pack, January 2020 2 Knight Frank 2020 Outlook Report Research Insight Through the Looking Glass QUARTERLY PROPERTY REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2019 3 Economic update Gross domestic product Australia’s unemployment The Reserve Bank of Australia’s population grew rose by 1.7% in the third rate fell to a nine-month Australia kept its target by 1.5% in the year through quarter of 2019 from a year low of 5.1% in December, cash rate steady at a record June, a slight pullback from earlier, an acceleration from 5.2% in November. low of 0.75% in December. 1.6% in the year through from a 1.4% in the second March. quarter. Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics, Reserve Bank of Australia Australian economic growth has Rates on hold at Employment accelerated on the back of increased government spending and a weaker record low continues to rise Australia dollar that helped to boost After three rate cuts earlier in 2019, the The unemployment rate edged down to demand for Australia’s exports. Gross Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept its 5.1% in December, the lowest reading domestic product (GDP) rose by target cash rate steady at a record low since March. The breakdown of the data 1.7% (on a rolling annual basis) in the 0.75% in December. was less encouraging with full time September quarter from a year earlier, jobs falling by 300 and only part time RBA Governor Philip Lowe noted that accelerating from a rise of 1.4% in the positions rising.5 the economy appeared to have reached June quarter.3 a “gentle turning point” after hitting The better-than-expected result Outside the government sector, a soft patch in the second half of prompted some analysts to wind back however, domestic growth remained 2018, while global conditions had also expectations for further imminent relatively subdued, with dwelling improved.4 interest rate cuts from the RBA, investment recording its fourth however, many still expect another 25 consecutive decline. Household spending basis points cut by May, according to a growth also remained weak following a survey by Reuters.6 prolonged period of low-income growth. 3 Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, June 2019 4 Reserve Bank of Australia, Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board, Sydney- 3 December 2019 5 Australian Bureau of Statistics, Labour Force, Australia, Dec 2019 6 Reuters, Australia jobless hits nine-month low, analysts give up on February rate cut, January 23, 2020. Available at: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-australia- economy-employment/australia-jobless-hits-nine-month-low-analysts-give-up-on-february-rate-cut-idUSKBN1ZM0BV QUARTERLY PROPERTY REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2019 4 Global and domestic Growth expected to OFFICIAL INTEREST RATES risks remain pick up gradually Despite the pickup in economic growth, The RBA’s central scenario is for notable domestic and international risks Australia’s economic growth to pick 0.75% to the outlook remain, including the up gradually to around 3% in 2021, STEADY AT RECORD LOW trajectory of residential construction, supported by the low level of interest which has fallen sharply after a strong rates, recent tax cuts, ongoing runup in recent years. government spending on infrastructure, COMPANY PROFITS the upswing in housing prices and 3 Q Consumer spending has been weighed a brighter outlook for the resources down by slow income growth and sector.7 continues to be a key uncertainty on the domestic front as wages growth remains Over the long term, the Australian 9.4% constrained. Meanwhile, the impact economy remains supported by ANNUAL GROWTH on the economy of recent devastating solid population growth. Australia’s (DOWN FROM 13% IN 2Q) bushfires across the country, coming population rose by 1.5% in the year amid a prolonged severe drought, has through June, albeit a slight pullback AUSTRALIAN yet to be quantified. from the 1.6% pace of previous GOVERNMENT quarters.8 Globally, financial market conditions INFRASTRUCTURE have improved somewhat following SPEND some progress in China-US trade negotiations, monetary policy easing by several central banks, and signs of stabilisation in the manufacturing $100B industry. OVER 10 YEARS Source: ABS; Australian Government, Department of 7 Reserve Bank of Australia, Statement on Monetary Policy – November 2019 Infrastructure, Transport, Cities 8 Australian Bureau of Statistics, Australian Demographic Statistics, Jun 2019 and Regional Development THE RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA HAS CUT RATES TO A NEW RECORD LOW OF 0.75% Source: RBA 4.75% 4.75% 4.25% 3.50% 3.00% 2.75% 2.50% 2.50% 2.50% 2.00% 2.00% 1.75% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.50% 1.25% 0.75% 05-Jun-13 03-Jun-15 02-Feb-11 08-Jun-11 05-Jun-19 07-Jun-17 07-Dec-11 02-Dec-15 05-Dec-12 06-Jun-12 05-Dec-18 04-Jun-14 04-Dec-13 08-Jun-16 06-Jun-18 03-Dec-14 07-Dec-16 06-Dec-17 04-Dec-19 QUARTERLY PROPERTY REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2019 Source: ABS Source: RBA Statement on Monetary Policy November 2019 RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA FORECASTS FOR YEAR-ENDED GDP GROWTH OF BANK AUSTRALIA FORECASTS YEAR-ENDED FOR RESERVE ACTUAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNEMPLOYMENT Dec 2018 5.0% Jan 2019 5.0% Feb 2019 5.0% March 2019 5.1% April 2019 5.2% May 2019 5.2% June 2019 5.3% July 2019 5.2% Aug 2019 5.3% FORECAST Dec 2019 2.25% Sept 2019 5.2% June 2020 2.50% Oct 2019 5.3% Dec 2020 2.75% Nov 2019 5.2% June 2021 3.00% Dec 2019 5.1% Dec 2021 3.00% 5 QUARTERLY PROPERTY REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2019 6 Residential Australia’s housing market continues to Vacancy rates may Short supply driving rebound. National residential dwelling values increased by 4.0% over the have peaked prices higher December quarter, the fastest quarterly Vacancy rates rose marginally to 2.5% Prices are being buoyed by lack of growth rate since November 2009, in December from 2.2% the previous supply. The construction cycle turned according to data from CoreLogic. month, according to SQM Research, down at the end of 2018, bringing to an Across the capital cities, prices rose by however the rise was mainly due to the end a long upswing that started in 2012. 4.7%, with regional values lagging at seasonal movements of some students The value of new buildings constructed 9 1.5% growth. and some industry specific workers.10 has fallen by 11% over the year through September.11 Annual growth has now also turned “It is actually quite likely we have positive, with national dwelling reached the peak in national rental Despite the recent pickup in residential values rising by 2.3% over the year. vacancy rates with ongoing strong prices, forward indicators of supply As confidence has improved, settled population growth absorbing current remain somewhat mixed. Building sales have rebounded, with capital city surplus rental stock over 2020,” said approvals are down by 3.8% over the sales rising by 4% in December from a Managing Director of SQM Research year through November but have risen year earlier. Capital city rents also rose Louis Christopher on releasing the 12% over the latest month12, suggesting slightly over the year, boosted by strong statistics. supply may be beginning to adjust to population growth and a slowdown in increased demand. construction.9 9 CoreLogic Monthly Housing & Economic Chart Pack, January 2020 10 ABS, Building Activity, Australia, Sep 2019 11 ABS, Building Activity, Australia, Sep 2019 12 ABS, Building Approvals, Australia, Nov 2019 QUARTERLY PROPERTY REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2019 7 DECEMBER MARKET SNAPSHOT Source: SQM Research (Vacancy rates), CoreLogic (All other data) NATIONAL SYDNEY MELBOURNE BRISBANE CAPITAL CITY DWELLING DWELLING DWELLING DWELLING PRICES PRICES PRICES PRICES +4.7% +6.2% +6.1% +2.4% (ON QUARTER) (ON QUARTER) (ON QUARTER) (ON QUARTER) +3.0% +5.3% +5.3% +0.3% (ON YEAR) (ON YEAR) (ON YEAR) (ON YEAR) -6.4% -2.3% -0.1% (FROM RECORD HIGH (FROM RECORD (FROM RECORD HIGH IN JULY 2017) HIGH IN NOVEMBER IN APRIL 2018) 2017) .... .... .... .... +4% +12% +3% -6% SETTLED SALES SETTLED SALES SETTLED SALES SETTLED SALES CAPITAL CITIES (ON YEAR) (ON YEAR) (ON YEAR) (ON YEAR) +0.7% -1.0% +1.4% +1.8% CAPITAL CITY RENTS R E N T S R E N T S R E N T S (ON YEAR) (ON YEAR) (ON YEAR) (ON YEAR) 3.5% 3.0% 3.3% 4.5% GROSS RENTAL YIELD GROSS RENTAL YIELD GROSS RENTAL YIELD GROSS RENTAL YIELD ( O N Y E A R ) 2.5% 3.6% 2.5% 2.9% V A C A N C Y VACANCY VACANCY VACANCY QUARTERLY PROPERTY REPORT | SEPTEMBER 2019 8 Industrial & Logistics The industrial sector continues to be a In Australia, e-commerce as a $100 billion on transport infrastructure strong performer supported by rapid proportion of total retail sales is small projects over ten years.
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