Water Quality Conditions & Long-Term Trends in Beaver River Lakes

Water Quality Conditions & Long-Term

Richard Casey Water Policy Branch, ESRD

ALMS Annual Workshop, Sep 2012 1 http://environment.gov.ab.ca/info/library/8544.pdf 2 Overview of Talk

1. Monitoring of AB lakes (scope & methods)

2. Beaver R. Lakes with long-term data (10+ yr): • Features of lakes & watersheds • WQ compared to other AB lakes • Trends - phosphorus & chlorophyll-a (algal biomass) • Trends - total dissolved solids (TDS) • Trends - lake level & relationships to water quality

3. Main Findings & Broader Context

3 WQ Sampling in AB Lakes & Long-Term Trends (10+ yr)

4 Sampling Methods

Lake sampling (design/methods):

• Whole-lake (composite) sample of euphotic zone - general WQ, nutrients & phytoplankton/algae

• Depth Profile Site in main/2ndary basin - temperature, oxygen, conductivity & pH; zooplankton

Focus on open-water period:

• Approx. 4 to 6 sampling visits from May to Oct

5 Beaver R. Basin – Lakes with 10+ yr Data

Features of Beaver R. Lakes & Watersheds

Mean Watershed: Annual Drainage Surface Lake Volume Max. Mean Inflow Water Beaver River Area Area Surface (million Depth Depth (million Residence Basin (km2) (km2) Area ratio m3) (m) (m) m3) Time (yrs) Ethel 542 5 111 32 30 7 13 3 Garner 26 6 4 50 15 8 1 >100 Hilda 87 4 24 23 12 6 --- 6 Long 82 6 14 29 9 4 5 8 Marie 386 35 11 484 26 14 17 48 Moore (Crane) 37 9 4 77 26 8 2 >100 Moose 755 41 19 230 20 6 38 8 North Buck 100 19 5 47 6 2 3 41 Tucker 312 7 47 19 8 3 15 2

7 Beaver R. Lakes Compared to Other AB Lakes

Salinity (TDS)

7000

6000 Total Dissolved Salinity * Solids (mg/L) 5000 LowLow <500 SlightlySlightly Saline 500 to 1,000 4000 ModerateModerate & High >1,000 & >5,000 ** MitchellMitchell & Prepas (1990) 3000 TDS (mg/L) TDS (mg/L)

2000

1000

Alix Pine Gull Marie Jarvis Hilda Pigeon Gregg Newell Tucker Sylvan Moose Garner ReesorCrimson DillberryTravers Thunder Garner Gregoire Beauvais Nakamun ElkwaterWinagami Miquelon North Buck Wabamun Moonshine Saskatoon Spruce Coulee Steele (Cross) Moore (Crane) McLeod, E. Basin Baptiste,Baptiste, S. Basin N. Basin Long (near Boyle) Sturgeon, W. Basin McLeod, W. Basin Pine Coulee, South Buffalo, Main Basin Sturgeon, Main Basin Lac EthelLa Biche, (near E. Cold Basin Lake) Buffalo, Secondary Bay Lake/Basin 8 Beaver R. Lakes Compared to Other AB Lakes

Trophic Status (Chlorophyll-a )

45 Chlorophyll-a 40 Trophic Category * (mean) ) ) 3 3 Oligotrophic <2.5 35 Mesotrophic 2.5-8 Eutrophic 8-25 (mg/m (mg/m 30 a a Hyper-Eutrophic >25 25 * OECD (1982) 20

15 Chlorophyll- Chlorophyll- 10

Gull Alix Pine Jarvis Marie Hilda Gregg SylvanNewell Garner Pigeon Moose Tucker Travers Dillberry Crimson Garner Reesor Thunder Miquelon ElkwaterBeauvais Gregoire WinagamiNakamun North Buck Wabamun Moonshine Saskatoon Spruce CouleeMoore (Crane) Steele (Cross) McLeod, E. Basin Long (near Boyle) Baptiste,Baptiste, N. Basin S. Basin McLeod, W. Basin Buffalo, Main Basin Pine Coulee, South Sturgeon, W. Basin Sturgeon, Main Basin Ethel (near Cold Lake) Buffalo, Secondary Bay Lac La Biche, E. Basin Lake/Basin

9 Beaver R. Lakes Compared to Other AB Lakes

100 Spearman Correlation:

) r = 0.82, 3 s p <0.01, n = 43 (mg/m a 10 Chlorophyll-

1 1 10 100 1,000 Total Phosphorus (ug/L)

10 Analysis of Long-term Trends Approach

Lake Selection: at least 10 yr ~monthly composite samples

WQ analysed: Total dissolved solids (TDS); pH; alkalinity; total phosphorus; chlorophyll-a; transparency (Secchi depth)

Additional WQ: Baptiste; Ethel; Nakamun; Pine; & Wabamun

Trend Analysis

Non-parametric: reduce potential issues (eg, data distribution; “outliers”; missing samples for months & yr)

Seasonal Kendall: monthly data (>40 months over record, samples combined by month; test & correct for auto/serial correlation)

Mann Kendall: annual data (<40 months); Lake level (annual data) 11 Trends - Total Phosphorus

Ethel Lake - Total Phosphorus Garner Lake - Total Phosphorus All Seasons Seasonal Kendall (SKC) All Seasons Seasonal Kendall (SKC) Seasonal Sen Slope Slope = 0.00005 Seasonal Sen Slope Slope = 0.00035 Z = 0.871 Not Signif 80% Z = 0.811 Not Signif 80% 2xP = 0.3839 2xP = 0.4174 0.045 0.06 0.040 0.05 0.035 0.030 ↔ 0.04 ↔ 0.025 0.03 TP (mg/L)TP 0.020 (mg/L)TP 0.02 0.015 0.01 0.010

0.005 7 9 8 5 9 0 9 5 0 0 0 5 0 8 0.00 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 YEAR YEAR

Long Lake - Total Phosphorus All Seasons Seasonal Kendall (SKC) Seasonal Sen Slope Slope = 0.00029 Z = 0.993 Not Signif 80% 2xP = 0.3207 0.18

0.16

0.14

0.12 ↔ 0.10 ↔ 0.08 TP (mg/L)TP 0.06

0.04

0.02

0.00 8 3 8 5 9 0 9 5 0 0 0 5 0 8 YEAR

12 Trends - Total Phosphorus ↔ ↔

Moose Lake - Total Phosphorus North Buck Lake - Total Phosphorus All Seasons Seasonal Kendall (SKC) All Seasons Seasonal Kendall (SKC) Seasonal Sen Slope Slope = 0.00016 Seasonal Sen Slope Slope = -0.00021 Z = 0.888 Not Signif 80% Z = -0.746 Not Signif 80% 2xP = 0.3746 2xP = 0.4554 0.08 0.044 0.07 0.042 0.040 0.06 0.038 0.036 0.05 ↔ 0.034 ↔ 0.032 0.04

TP (mg/L)TP 0.030 TP (mg/L)TP 0.028 0.03 0.026 0.02 0.024 0.022

0.01 8 3 8 5 9 0 9 5 0 0 0 5 0 9 0.020 8 3 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 YEAR ↔ YEAR

13 Trends - Chlorophyll-a

Ethel Lake - Chlorophyll a Garner Lake - Chlorophyll a All Seasons Seasonal Kendall (SKC) All Seasons Seasonal Kendall (SKC) Seasonal Sen Slope Slope = -0.09090 Seasonal Sen Slope Slope = -0.05043 Z = -2.539 Signif 95% Z = -0.399 Not Signif 80% 2xP = 0.0111 2xP = 0.6901 35 18 30 16

14 25 12 ↓ 20 ↔ 10 15 8 10 6 Chlorophyll a (mg/m3) Chlorophyll a (mg/m3)

4 5

2 7 9 8 5 9 0 9 5 0 0 0 5 0 8 0 8 4 8 5 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 YEAR YEAR

Long Lake - Chlorophyll a All Seasons Seasonal Kendall (SKC) Seasonal Sen Slope Slope = -0.03035 Z = -0.471 Not Signif 80% 2xP = 0.6374 100 90 80 70 ↓ 60 ↔ 50 40 30 Chlorophyll a (mg/m3) 20 10

0 8 3 8 5 9 0 9 5 0 0 0 5 0 8 YEAR

14 Trends - Chlorophyll-a

↓ ↓

North Buck Lake - Chlorophyll a Moose Lake - Chlorophyll a All Seasons Seasonal Kendall (SKC) All Seasons Seasonal Kendall (SKC) Seasonal Sen Slope Seasonal Sen Slope Slope = -0.29837 Slope = 0.12745 Z = -2.549 Signif 95% Z = 0.855 Not Signif 80% 2xP = 0.0108 2xP = 0.3928 45

80 40

70 35

60 30 50 25 ↓ 40 ↔ 20 Tucker Lake - Chlorophyll a 30 15 All Seasons Mann-Kendall 20 Sen Slope Chlorophyll a (mg/m3) Chlorophyll a (mg/m3) Annual (CYr) Slope = 1.15592 10 Z = 1.252 Not Signif 80% 10 2xP = 0.2105 5 100 0 8 3 8 5 9 0 9 5 0 0 0 5 0 9 0 8 6 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 0 9 1 9 2 9 3 9 4 9 5 9 6 9 7 9 8 9 9 0 0 0 1 0 2 0 3 90 YEAR YEAR 80 70 60 ↔ 50 40 30 Chlorophyll a (mg/m3) 20 10 15

0 79 85 90 95 00 05 07 YEAR Summary – Trends in Phosphorus & Chlorophyll-a

Beaver River Statistical Significance & Basin Trend Direction Characteristics of Lakes and Watersheds Mean Watershed: Annual Total Chlorophyll-a Drainage Surface Lake Volume Max. Mean Inflow Water Phosphorus Area Area Surface (million Depth Depth (million Residence (km2) (km2) Area ratio m3) (m) (m) m3) Time (yrs) Ethel ns ↔ ** ↓ 542 5 111 32 30 7 13 3 Garner ns ↔ ns ↔ 26 6 4 50 15 8 1 100 Hilda ns ↔ ** ↓ 87 4 24 23 12 6 --- 6 Long ns ↔ ns ↔ 82 6 14 29 9 4 5 8 Marie ns ↔ ** ↓ 386 35 11 484 26 14 17 48 Moore (Crane) ns ↔ ** ↓ 37 9 4 77 26 8 2 100 Moose ns ↔ ns ↔ 755 41 19 230 20 6 38 8 North Buck ns ↔ ** ↓ 100 19 5 47 6 2 3 41 Tucker ns ↔ ns ↔ 312 7 47 19 8 3 15 2

Statistical Significance ? Probability Symbol 16 p <0.01 ** 17

Trends - Total Dissolved Solids

Garner Lake - Total Dissolved Solids

All Seasons Mann-Kendall Sen Slope Annual (CYr) Slope = 7.46997 Z = 4.380 Signif 99% 2xP = 1.19E-5

680

660

640 ↓ 620 ↑ 600

TDS (mg/L) 580

560

540

520 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 YEAR

↑ ↑

18 Trends - Total Dissolved Solids

↔ ↑

↑ ↑ ↔

19 Trends - Lake Level (annual data & same period as WQ)

↑ ↓

↓ ↓

20 Trends - Lake Level (annual data & same period as WQ)

↔ ↔

↓ ↓

21 Summary – Trends in Lake Level relative to Water Quality

Correlation Between Lake Level and Water Quality

Beaver River Total Dissolved Total Basin Long-term Trend Solids Phosphorus Chlorophyll-a

Spearman Correlation (rs), Statistical Probability (p) & Number of Years (n) Total Dissolved Lake Level Solids rs p n rs p n rs p n Ethel ↑ ↓ -0.44 0.05 21 0.08 0.74 20 0.11 0.62 21 Garner ↓ ↑ -0.94 <0.01 14 -0.15 0.58 14 0.09 0.76 14 Hilda ↓ ↑ -0.55 0.10 10 0.49 0.14 10 0.09 0.79 10 Long ↓ ↑ -0.68 <0.01 23 0.23 0.25 26 0.08 0.68 26 Marie ↑ ↔ -0.07 0.83 10 -0.06 0.87 9 -0.40 0.26 9 Moore (Crane) ↔ ↑ 0.82 0.01 10 -0.53 0.14 9 -0.48 0.17 9 Moose ↓ ↑ -0.70 <0.01 20 -0.01 0.98 20 -0.47 0.04 20 North Buck ↓ ↑ -0.23 0.40 15 -0.38 0.15 15 0.04 0.90 14 Tucker --- ↔ ------

Statistical Significance ? Probability Symbol p >0.05 & <0.15 ~ns 22 p >0.01 & <0.05 * p <0.01 ** Main Findings (9 lakes)

Lake Condition: • Diverse lake & watershed features • Predominately freshwater • Mod. trophic condition (mesotrophic) to eutrophic/hyper-eutrophic

Trends:

• Phosphorus - no change (in euphotic zone) all lakes • Chlorophyll-a - small decline in 5 lakes, but limited data in some • TDS - clearest change, increase in 6 lakes & decline in 1 lake • Lake level - overall decline in 5 lakes & increase in 1 lake • Lake level – negatively correlated with TDS, but not with phosphorus or chlorophyll-a

23 Findings in Broader Context

Examine individual lake in more detail to better understand:

• Current condition/trends (10 – 30 yr) relative to major change in watershed (eg, land use, climate, hydrology; paleolimnological study)

• Diagnostic work to evaluate main sources & sinks of nutrients (lake nutrient budget) & in-lake cycling

• Supports/informs lake & watershed stewardship

24 Acknowledgements

ESRD (development/design, sample collection, lab analysis, data management) - numerous past/current scientific & technical staff in the Science & Monitoring groups/offices in AB over 3 decades

Support/services of key partners and analytical labs – includes - AB Tourism, Parks and Recreation; ALMS; AITF/private labs; LICA; & others

25 Sources of Data/Info on AB Lakes

ESRD – Water Information Centre: access water quality data & on- line reports Water Data System (WDS) http://www.environment.alberta.ca/2013.html

ESRD – Surface Water Quality Information: access background on surface water quality programs, issues, partnerships & info/reports http://www.environment.alberta.ca/01256.html

ESRD Information Centre: access technical reports http://environment.gov.ab.ca/info/home.asp

Atlas of Alberta Lakes: comprehensive info on 100 lakes http://alberta-lakes.sunsite.ualberta.ca/

ALMS, Stewardship Groups & Others…