DENVER RETAIL INSIGHTS the Mile High Shopping Experience

Retail Science from CBRE

DENVER RETAIL INSIGHTS The Mile High Shopping Experience

CBRE RESEARCH JUNE 2016

Denver’s retail market is riding the demographic and economic wave, which is creating an opportunistic environment for all retail stakeholders. 04 Top Market for Demographic & Economic Growth With the strong performance of Denver’s retail market, landlords and investors are intent on better understanding and capturing trade area demand as well as harnessing market-wide trends. At the same time, retailers are eager to embrace new opportunities and identify optimal real estate solutions that align with the region’s expanding consumer base. 09 Meet the Denver Consumer This report provides insight into Denver’s retail landscape, the Denver consumer base and the latest trends taking over the market. Key findings include: 10 Retail Real Estate Perspective Top Market for Retail Real Estate Denver Retail Trade Areas Demographic & Perspective Overview Economic Growth • Second-highest Widely recognized as Denver Retail Trade Areas Overview • Denver’s 9.6% absorption levels Denver’s luxury retail scene, 14 population growth compared to peer Cherry Creek achieves since 2010 – 2.5 times markets the highest rents in the the national rate of region. As of Q1 2016, Trend Spotlight: The Marketplace Concept growth • 140% increase in retail asking lease rates in Cherry investment sale price Creek averaged $36.20 per 20 • Denver’s above- per sq. ft. since 2012 for sq. ft. NNN but can reach average rate of job the sharpest gain among as high as $70 per sq. ft - growth resulting in peer markets compared to $50 per sq. the addition of nearly • Record investment ft. in downtown Denver 160,000 new jobs in and $35 per sq. ft. in Park three years activity volume as of Q1 2016 on a four-quarter Meadows on the high end. The strength in market • Expanding median rolling basis to $1.9 fundamentals is driven household income – billion by demand for premium increasing 15.6% since space and supported by 2010 to $68,274 increasingly dense mixed- use development. With a full development pipeline focused on bringing luxury Trend Spotlight: The Marketplace Concept to consumers and residents, Cherry Creek will continue The marketplace concept is reviving consumers and retailers alike to be Denver’s “high street.” in urban infill locations. The formerly underutilized industrial buildings are now vibrant and often catalytic developments that stimulate more commercial development.

Denver’s population has grown 9.6% since 2010 compared to 3.9% national growth. This explosive growth pushed the Denver market (including Boulder) past the 3.0 million mark and into the top 20 for both metropolitan areas and cities (Denver). Denver ranks 12th for the largest population gain over the 2010-2015 period with a 271,000-person increase. Among the fast-growing southwest markets, Denver ranks third for population growth (2010-2015).

Figure 1: Denver is a Top Market for Demographic Growth Population Median Household Income 2015 Median Growth Population 2010-2015 Avg. Annual 2010-2015 HH Income Rank Growth Rank U.S. Markets (millions) % Change % Change Change (Q4 2014) (Q4 2014) (2010 to 2014) (2010 to 2014)*

Denver 3.1 9.6% 1.9% 272,900 $68,274 14 15.6% 3

Austin 2.0 16.0% 3.2% 275,700 $64,639 16 14.7% 5

Chicago 7.4 1.2% 0.2% 85,900 $61,873 19 7.8% 29

Dallas 4.7 10.7% 2.1% 456,100 $60,945 22 7.6% 30

Phoenix 4.6 8.3% 1.7% 349,900 $53,944 35 6.5% 37

Los Angeles 10.2 3.6% 0.7% 357,800 $56,402 32 5.2% 44

Salt Lake City 1.2 7.0% 1.4% 76,200 $63,559 n/a 11.3% n/a

U.S. 320.2 3.9% 0.8% 12,110,000 $54,562 n/a 8.9% n/a

Source: Moody’s Analytics, 2016. Note: Rank given among the 50 largest markets. *Table sorted in descending order of median household income growth.

Lifestyle and job opportunities are the primary fifth for net migration of baby boomers among the drivers behind impressive net migration. Capital nation’s largest metropolitan regions1. The top five INTRODUCTION investments such as the nearly complete metro- states for net migration into Colorado since 2012 wide light and commuter rail project have also are California, New York, Illinois, Texas, and New The retail market’s recovery in Denver has lagged other commercial sectors recently … that is up until now. strengthened the region’s competitive position and Mexico. Unprecedented job gains combined with game-changing population growth have aligned for several years of added in attracting households. fundamental strengthening, innovative retail solutions, an emphasis on placemaking and ground-breaking The Denver consumer base between ages 18 and 34 new projects. Partly due to minimal new supply, well-located premium retail space is in high demand both in Millennials and baby boomers have fueled record years represents 23% of the metro area population the urban core and in suburban markets. net migration to Denver in the current economic compared to baby boomers aged 55 to 74 years that cycle. According to the Brookings Institute, Denver account for 20% of the total. As tenants and landlords strive to adapt to the ever-changing needs of the consumer base, this report provides ranked second for net migration of millennials and insight into Denver’s retail landscape, the Denver consumer base and the latest trends taking over the market. 1 William H Frey analysis of American Community Survey 3 Year Data (2007-2009, 2010-2012).

4 | DENVER RETAIL INSIGHTS | The Mile High Shopping Experience CBRE RESEARCH © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 5 Homebuilders and apartment developers are striving to meet the needs of the growing population. Even so, demand has exceeded supply, and the cost of both rental apartments and single-family homes has risen Notable Employment & Income Gains significantly in recent years. The Denver market added more than 222,500 jobs leisure and hospitality and construction are some of Denver Residential Supply since the recession ended for an annual average gain the fastest-growing industries for new jobs. Figure 2: Denver Residential Supply Surging to Meet Population Growth of 44,500 jobs. Underscoring the region’s economic prowess, more than 50,000 jobs have been added Job growth boosted household income levels and each year since 2013, which well exceeds the historic retail activity in recent years – particularly high- 35,000 average. In fact, the only other consecutive period paying energy, technology and healthcare jobs. The that job growth exceeded 50,000 was 1999-2000. median household income in Denver increased 30,000 Denver’s rate of job growth has also exceeded the 15.6% to $68,274 since 2010 or 3.9% annually on U.S. every year since the most recent recession – average, which is the third-fastest rate of increase posting 3.5% gain in 2015. Unemployment in Denver among the 50 largest markets (San Francisco and 25,000 continues to hover around 3.0% - well-below the San Jose reported sharper increases). As of Q4 2014, U.S.’s 5.1% unemployment. Denver has the 14th-highest median household 20,000 income. According to projections from Moody’s Job growth supports overall retail sales activity in the Analytics, median household income will exceed 15,000 region, but there is a more direct connection to the $72,000 by year end 2016. Luxury retail in Denver has retail sector. According to the University of Colorado, historically been limited but higher-end retailers are

Number of Household Permits one of every 10 jobs in Colorado occur in the retail taking note of Denver’s income growth and seeking 10,000 sector. Further, healthcare, professional and out premium locations such as Cherry Creek. business services, technology, financial activities, 5,000 Figure 4: Median Household Income Growth Across Peer Markets

0 $80 15.6% DENVER GROWTH (2010 - 2014) 18% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 $68,273 DENVER MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME forecast forecast forecast

Source: Moody’s Analytics, CBRE EA, CBRE Research April 2016. Multifamily Permits Single-Family Permits

$60 14%

The wealth effect from rising home prices may be Figure 3: Denver Households on the Rise $40 10% encouraging Denver consumers to shop. Existing

single-family home prices have increased 44% in (Thousands $) five years2. Low inventory levels of for-sale product on the market in combination with modest new 2010 - 2014 Growth (%) development activity will continue to push sale Q4 2014 Median Household Income $20 6% prices and home values. On the other hand, lease- up of the 26,000 apartment units delivered in the 2010 2015 2020 forecast past five years has directly supported household 1,107,454 1,234,478 1,362,340 goods retailers. Denver’s housing market recovery is $0 2% widespread, but the recovery is pronounced in urban Denver Austin Salt Lake City Chicago Dallas Los Angeles United States Phoenix areas – including urban suburban areas. Source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs, May 2016.

Source: Moody’s Analytics, Q4 2014. Q4 2014 Median Household Income 2010-2014 Growth % 2 Colorado Comps LLC, Denver Metro Association of Realtors, REColorado, February 2016.

1,100

Thousands 900

700

500 2010 2015 2020f Source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs, May 2016. Retail sales activity in Denver has posted year-over-year gains since 2010. Total retail trade surpassed $32.7 billion over the 12-month period October 2014-September 2015. Motor vehicles, food and beverage and general MEET THE DENVER CONSUMER merchandise are the dominating segments – accounting for over half of total volume3. The food and beverage category is seeing strong growth specifically within the fast casual/QSR restaurant segment. Figure 5: Denver Metro Retail Sales Profile (October 2014 - September 2015) HIGHLY EDUCATED AFFLUENT Denver ranks Denver’s median household income of $68,274 4th in the nation for higher education attainment exceeds the national median household income with 42.1% of the population having obtained of $54,562 (Q4 2014)2 a bachelor’s degree or higher

SALE Motor Vehicles/Parts Non-Store 25% Electronics/Appliances 2% Food & Beverage 3% 19%

Furniture 4% Sports & Hobbies 4% General Merchandise 14% Gas Stations 5% Nursery YOUNG Clothing The average age in Denver Denver Metro 8% is 36.1 years 5% Retail Sales Profile compared to 37.7 nationally (U.S., 2014)

Consumer Breakdown by Age Group more than 75 years Misc. Stores 55 to 74 years less than 18 years 5% Healthcare 6% 5% 20% 24%

Source: Colorado Department of Revenue, October 2014 - September 2015.

28% 23% 35 to 54 years 18 to 34 years

Source: Nielsen, U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2016. 3Colorado Department of Revenue, September 2015.

Denver’s slower-to-recover retail market compared The Denver retail market is well-balanced to other commercial property sectors is now considering new supply and demand amongst peer improving at a fast clip. Average asking lease rates markets. As of Q1 2016, Denver ranks fifth among Figure 7: Retail Lease Rates are increasing broadly across the Denver market peer markets in construction activity by sq. ft.— $30 $15.50 DENVER Q1 2016 LEASE RATE 11% while vacancy steadily declines. The convergence of ahead of only Salt Lake City and Austin—although 5.6% DENVER Y-O-Y CHANGE a growing consumer base and moderate new supply construction activity is increasing. Denver ranks $25 9% is central to the sector’s fundamental improvement second in Q1 2016 net absorption by sq. ft.—trailing during recent quarters. E-commerce is a headwind only Chicago. As a result, Denver has the third- $20 6% to demandDenver forWell brick-and-mortar Balanced Fundamentals space but not yet lowest availability rate compared to its peers and a strong enough to stymie fundamental improvement. moderate overall average direct asking lease rate. $15 4%

Figure 6: Denver’s Well-Balanced Fundamentals $10 1% Y-O-Y Lease Rate Change

Direct Asking Lease Rate (NNN) $5 -2% Sq. Ft. (Thousands) 691k DENVER UNDER CONSTRUCTION Availability Rate (%) $0 -4% 3.0 577k DENVER QI ABSORPTION 12% Los Angeles Austin United States Denver Dallas Chicago Phoenix Salt Lake City 7.2% DENVER AVAILABILITY RATE Source: CBRE EA, Q1 2016. Q1 2016 2015-2016 Y-O-Y Lease Rate Change

LEASE 2.5 LEASE 10%

2.0 LEASE LEASE 8%

LEASE 1.5 6% LEASE

LEASE Figure 8: Select Denver Construction Projects 1.0 4% Project City Size (Sq. Ft.) Project Type Est. Completion Year King Soopers Denver 58,000 Neighborhood Center 2016 0.5 2% Gander Mountain Parker 57,600 Freestanding 2016 Colorado Center Denver 50,000 Community Center 2016 0 0% 2800 Walnut St Denver 48,123 Mixed Use 2016 Chicago Dallas Los Angeles Phoenix Denver Salt Lake City Austin King Soopers Erie 88,968 Neighborhood Center 2017 Source: CBRE EA, Q1 2016. Under Construction Absorption Availability Z Block/Dairy Block Denver 39,167 Mixed Use 2017 LEASE Pivot Denver Retail Denver 68,000 Mixed Use 2018 Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2016.

$400 140% DENVER 2012-2016 SQ. FT. GROWTH 160% $2,500 $217/SQ. FT. DENVER Q1 INVESTMENT SALES On a four quarter rolling basis Denver hit record volume of $350 140% $1.9 billion in investment activity $2,000 $300 120%

$250 100% $1,500

$200 80% millions $1,000 $/Per Sq. Ft. $150 60% 2012-2016 $/Sq. Ft. Growth $100 40% $500 $50 20%

$0 0% $0 Los Angeles Austin Denver United States Dallas Phoenix Salt Lake City 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 YTD 2016 Source: Retail Investment Trends, Q1 2016. $/Sq. Ft. Q1 2016 2012-2016 $/Sq. Ft. Growth Figure 13: Top Retail Investment Buyers and Sellers Source: Real Capital Analytics, Q1 2016. Strong retail market fundamentals have attracted Notable retail transactions over the past four Top Buyers (prior 24 months) local and national investors to the market. Denver quarters include: Rank Buyer Location Acg $ (mil) # Props experienced the sharpest increase in investment sale price per sq. ft. from 2012 to today amongst peer 1 Heitman Chicago, IL 380.8 2 markets—increasing 140% to $217 per sq. ft. On a Figure 10: Significant Investments Last Four Quarters Figure 12: Investment Sales Rolling Four Quarter Volume 2 Starwood Capital Group Greenwich, CT 209.9 1 rolling four-quarter basis, Denver hit record volume Sale Price 4 Invesco RE/ OliverMcMillan Atlanta, GA 169.6 1 of $1.9 billion in retail investment activity as of Q1 Cross-Border User/Other Property Name Property City Sale Date (millions) 2016. 2% 3 InvenTrust Oak Brook, IL 161.6 3 Flatiron Crossing* Broomfield Jan-16 $331.1 5% 5 DDR/Blackstone San Diego, CA 137.8 2 Equity Fund & Belmar Center Lakewood Sep-15 $253.5 Institutional Top Sellers (prior 24 months) Clayton Lane Denver Jan-16 $169.6 19% Rank Buyer Location Disp $ (mil) # Props Denver Pavilions* Denver Jul-15 $132.0 1 Macerich Santa Monica, CA 380.8 2 Arvada Marketplace Arvada Aug-15 $54.9 54% 2 Continuum Partners/ Denver, CO 209.9 1 Fairfield Commons Denver Feb-16 $34.3 20% Southern Ute Indian Tribe Cherry Creek Square Denver Oct-15 $22.0 3 AmCap Inc./ Stamford, CT 169.6 1 Boulevard Center II Denver Jan-16 $19.7 Hart Realty Advisors 29th Street Mall* Boulder Jan-16 $19.3 Public Non-Listed REIT & Private 4 VEREIT Phoenix, AZ 150.8 3 5 Gart Properties Denver, CO 138.8 3 Note: *Recapitalization. Source: CBRE Research Real Capital Analytics, Q1 2016. Source: Real Capital Analytics, Q1 2016. Source: Real Capital Analytics, Q1 2016.

DENVER RETAIL TRADE AREAS OVERVIEW 5 Cherry Creek - Denver’s High Street 4

Cherry Creek embodies luxury retail and embraces both mixed-use and density. With a 26.1% increase in 3 average asking lease rate per sq. ft. since 2010 and tight vacancy rate of 1.6%, Cherry Creek is one of the fastest 2 growing and most successful retail destinations in Denver and home to the region’s highest retail rents. New Figure 15: Cherry Creek Rent Figure 16: Cherry Creek Vacancy and significant office, hotel and multifamily developments have transformed the area over the past decade yet 1 it remains walkable and pedestrian friendly. Cherry Creek draws consumers from across the region and is the 0 26.1% primary retail destination for luxury shoppers. Down 360 40 2010-2016 Growth BPS Change 35 Key Retailers

E. 4TH AVE. 20

15 Q1 2010 Q1 2016 10 $28.70 $36.20

S. STEELE ST. 5 Q1 2010 Q1 2016 0 5.2% 1.6% CHERRY CREEK DR. S.

S. UNIVERSITY BLVD.

Figure 17: Cherry Creek Rent Growth by Property Type Figure 18: Cherry Creek Vacancy by Property Type

32.6% 940 Change 25% $80 BPS Change $70 20% Figure 14: Cherry Creek Development Activity $60 55.0% 1,020 Change 15% BPS Change $50 30.2% 20.5% Market Size: 2.3M sq. ft. $40 Change Change 10% $30 310 BPS Change 200 $20 5% BPS Change $10 0 Development Type: Office Sq. Ft. Retail Sq. Ft. Hotel Rooms Multifamily Units 0 Community Neighborhood Store Front Strip Center Super Community Store Front Strip Center Center Center Regional Mall Center Recently Completed (2015 - Present): 230,000 189,000 196 803 Q1 2010 Q1 2016 Q1 2010 Q1 2016 Under Construction: - 10,800 520 468

Planned/Proposed: 198,000 68,000 - 701 Note: Lease rates are expressed as triple net. Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2016. Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2016.

14 | DENVER RETAIL INSIGHTS | The Mile High Shopping Experience CBRE RESEARCH © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 15 5 Park Meadows – Destination Suburban Retail 4 Park Meadows is an expansive retail destination serving the south portion of the Denver market as well as patrons from outside the metro ring in Castle Rock or as far away as Colorado Springs. Park Meadows 3 complements the high-income communities surrounding the southeast office market centered on the Denver Tech Center. The trade area is light-rail served and nestled among business parks and residential 2 Figure 20: Park Meadows Rent Figure 21: Park Meadows Vacancy neighborhoods. A diverse mixture are present within the trade area, although furniture stores are prevalent. While development activity has been modest in recent years, 586,500 sq. ft. of Class A office space and 300 1 multifamily units are planned for the future. 0 18.5% 2010-2016 Change Down 170 Key Retailers BPS Change 25

E. DRY CREEK RD. 20

QUEBEC ST. Q1 2010 Q1 2016 $19.70 $23.38 5 Q1 2010 Q1 2016 4.5% 2.8% 0

MAXIMUS DR. Figure 22: Park Meadows Growth by Property Type Figure 23: Park Meadows Vacancy by Property Type

76.7% Change 35% 20% 1710 Figure 19: Park Meadows Development Activity -4.0% BPS Change 30% Change 960 620 BPS Change 15% BPS Change 25% -6.0% 2.6% Market Size: 4.9M sq. ft. Change Change 2.2% 20% Change 10% 15% 190 BPS Change 180 BPS Change 10% 5% 250 BPS Change Development Type: Office Sq. Ft. Retail Sq. Ft. Hotel Rooms Multifamily Units 5% Recently Completed (2015 - Present): - 5,000 - - 0 0 Store Front Power Neighborhood Community Strip Center Super Store Front Power Neighborhood Community Strip Center Under Construction: - - - 267 Center Center Center Regional Mall Center Center Center Q1 2010 Q1 2016 Q1 2010 Q1 2016 Planned/Proposed: 586,505 88,400 - 300 Note: Lease rates are expressed as triple net. Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2016. Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2016.

Downtown Denver – The Urban Frontier 10

Downtown Denver is at the forefront of the urban resurgence evidenced by game-changing new development 8 and a multi-model transit center. Thousands of residential units and new retail—particularly grocery and food stores—have evolved downtown into a balanced live-work-play (and shop!) environment. In fact, the downtown 6 4 residential population has nearly tripled since 2000 to nearly 76,000 people . From the 16th Street Mall and Figure 25: Downtown Denver4 Rent Figure 26: Downtown Denver Vacancy Denver Pavilions to Larimer Square, the trade area has seen 11.1% growth in average asking retail lease rates in five years. Restaurants are a mainstay in the tourism-rich market and household goods retailers are 2 increasingly opening their doors. 0 11.2% 2010-2016 Growth Down 380 BPS Change 25 Key Retailers

PARK AVE. W. 20

WEWATTA ST. 15

10 Q1 2010 Q1 2016 $21.70 $24.10 5 Q1 2010 Q1 2016 11.5% 7.7% 0

BROADWAY

COLFAX AVE. Figure 27: Downtown Denver Rent Growth by Property Type Figure 28: Downtown Denver Vacancy by Property Type 175.0% $60 40% 450 Change BPS Change 13.0% 35% Figure 24: Downtown Denver Development Activity $50 Change 30% $40 1620 25% Market Size: 2.5M sq. ft. 9.8% BPS Change $30 8.1% Change 20% Change 520 15% 50 BPS Change $20 BPS Change 10% $10% 140 5% BPS Change Development Type: Office Sq. Ft. Retail Sq. Ft. Hotel Rooms Multifamily Units 0 0 Regional Store Front Community Neighborhood Regional Store Front Community Neighborhood Strip Center Recently Completed (2015 - Present): 511,299 76,848 0 962 Mall Center Center Mall Center Center Under Construction: 1,319,523 128,738 1,055 1,051 Q1 2010 Q1 2016 Q1 2010 Q1 2016

Planned/Proposed: 1,220,271 124,754 411 940 Note: Lease rates are expressed as triple net. Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2016. Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2016.

4 “State of Downtown Denver 2016,” Downtown Denver Partnership, Inc.

TREND SPOTLIGHT: THE MARKETPLACE CONCEPT

The marketplace phenomenon arrived in Denver in 2013 to much fanfare. The age-old but revived concept ignited a community-centric retail experience that draws consumers of all age groups. Focused on engaging Marketplaces in Denver are primarily redeveloped industrial properties in urban infill locations to date. The the consumer and featuring local and regional retailers, this concept creates a demand of needing to be “in formerly underutilized and well-located properties are now vibrant, modern retail environments that have also the experience.” Denver marketplaces have attracted local restaurants, brewers, bakers, butchers, grocers and spurred adjacent development. Marketplaces are expected to expand further into suburban neighborhoods and jewelers among other businesses for a one-stop retail experience grounded in authenticity and inspired by seek adaptive reuse opportunities. entrepreneurship.

Name: Avanti Address: 3200 Pecos Street, Denver, CO Building Size: 8,620 sq. ft. Key Tenants: Bravia!, Poco Torteria, Quiero Arepas Name: The Source Property Type: Former Industrial Class C Flex Light Distribution Address: 3350 Brighton Boulevard, Denver, CO Year Opened: 2015 Building Size: 26,000 sq. ft. Key Tenants: Acorn, Comida, Babettes Artisan Breads Property Type: Former Industrial Class C Brick Foundry Year Opened: 2013

Name: Stanley Marketplace Address: 2501 Dallas Street, Aurora, CO Name: Central Market Building Size: 137,930 sq. ft. Address: 2669 Larimer Street, Denver, CO Key Tenants: Mondo Market, Kindness Yoga, Annette’s Building Size: 14,000 sq. ft. Property Type: Former Stanley Aviation - Industrial Class B Manufacturing Key Tenants: Vero Italian, Silva’s, SK Provision Year Opened: 2016 (under construction) Property Type: Former Class C Industrial Warehouse Year Opened: 2016

Source: CBRE Research, Q1 2016.

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Jessica Ostermick Director of Research and Analysis + 1 303 264 1927 [email protected]

Michael Kane Retail Researcher + 1 303 264 1913 [email protected]

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