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DENVER RETAIL INSIGHTS the Mile High Shopping Experience

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DENVER RETAIL INSIGHTS the Mile High Shopping Experience Retail Science from CBRE DENVER RETAIL INSIGHTS The Mile High Shopping Experience CBRE RESEARCH JUNE 2016 CBRE RESEARCH © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY TABLE OF CONTENTS Denver’s retail market is riding the demographic and economic wave, which is creating an opportunistic environment for all retail stakeholders. 04 Top Market for Demographic & Economic Growth With the strong performance of Denver’s retail market, landlords and investors are intent on better understanding and capturing trade area demand as well as harnessing market-wide trends. At the same time, retailers are eager to embrace new opportunities and identify optimal real estate solutions that align with the region’s expanding consumer base. 09 Meet the Denver Consumer This report provides insight into Denver’s retail landscape, the Denver consumer base and the latest trends taking over the market. Key findings include: 10 Retail Real Estate Perspective Top Market for Retail Real Estate Denver Retail Trade Areas Demographic & Perspective Overview Economic Growth • Second-highest Widely recognized as Denver Retail Trade Areas Overview • Denver’s 9.6% absorption levels Denver’s luxury retail scene, 14 population growth compared to peer Cherry Creek achieves since 2010 – 2.5 times markets the highest rents in the the national rate of region. As of Q1 2016, Trend Spotlight: The Marketplace Concept growth • 140% increase in retail asking lease rates in Cherry investment sale price Creek averaged $36.20 per 20 • Denver’s above- per sq. ft. since 2012 for sq. ft. NNN but can reach average rate of job the sharpest gain among as high as $70 per sq. ft - growth resulting in peer markets compared to $50 per sq. the addition of nearly • Record investment ft. in downtown Denver 160,000 new jobs in and $35 per sq. ft. in Park three years activity volume as of Q1 2016 on a four-quarter Meadows on the high end. The strength in market • Expanding median rolling basis to $1.9 fundamentals is driven household income – billion by demand for premium increasing 15.6% since space and supported by 2010 to $68,274 increasingly dense mixed- use development. With a full development pipeline focused on bringing luxury Trend Spotlight: The Marketplace Concept to consumers and residents, Cherry Creek will continue The marketplace concept is reviving consumers and retailers alike to be Denver’s “high street.” in urban infill locations. The formerly underutilized industrial buildings are now vibrant and often catalytic developments that stimulate more commercial development. 2 | DENVER RETAIL INSIGHTS | The Mile High Shopping Experience CBRE RESEARCH © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 3 TOP MARKET FOR DEMOGRAPHIC & ECONOMIC GROWTH Growing Consumer Base Denver’s population has grown 9.6% since 2010 compared to 3.9% national growth. This explosive growth pushed the Denver market (including Boulder) past the 3.0 million mark and into the top 20 for both metropolitan areas and cities (Denver). Denver ranks 12th for the largest population gain over the 2010-2015 period with a 271,000-person increase. Among the fast-growing southwest markets, Denver ranks third for population growth (2010-2015). Figure 1: Denver is a Top Market for Demographic Growth Population Median Household Income 2015 Median Growth Population 2010-2015 Avg. Annual 2010-2015 HH Income Rank Growth Rank U.S. Markets (millions) % Change % Change Change (Q4 2014) (Q4 2014) (2010 to 2014) (2010 to 2014)* Denver 3.1 9.6% 1.9% 272,900 $68,274 14 15.6% 3 Austin 2.0 16.0% 3.2% 275,700 $64,639 16 14.7% 5 Chicago 7.4 1.2% 0.2% 85,900 $61,873 19 7.8% 29 Dallas 4.7 10.7% 2.1% 456,100 $60,945 22 7.6% 30 Phoenix 4.6 8.3% 1.7% 349,900 $53,944 35 6.5% 37 Los Angeles 10.2 3.6% 0.7% 357,800 $56,402 32 5.2% 44 Salt Lake City 1.2 7.0% 1.4% 76,200 $63,559 n/a 11.3% n/a U.S. 320.2 3.9% 0.8% 12,110,000 $54,562 n/a 8.9% n/a Source: Moody’s Analytics, 2016. Note: Rank given among the 50 largest markets. *Table sorted in descending order of median household income growth. Lifestyle and job opportunities are the primary fifth for net migration of baby boomers among the drivers behind impressive net migration. Capital nation’s largest metropolitan regions1. The top five INTRODUCTION investments such as the nearly complete metro- states for net migration into Colorado since 2012 wide light and commuter rail project have also are California, New York, Illinois, Texas, and New The retail market’s recovery in Denver has lagged other commercial sectors recently … that is up until now. strengthened the region’s competitive position and Mexico. Unprecedented job gains combined with game-changing population growth have aligned for several years of added in attracting households. fundamental strengthening, innovative retail solutions, an emphasis on placemaking and ground-breaking The Denver consumer base between ages 18 and 34 new projects. Partly due to minimal new supply, well-located premium retail space is in high demand both in Millennials and baby boomers have fueled record years represents 23% of the metro area population the urban core and in suburban markets. net migration to Denver in the current economic compared to baby boomers aged 55 to 74 years that cycle. According to the Brookings Institute, Denver account for 20% of the total. As tenants and landlords strive to adapt to the ever-changing needs of the consumer base, this report provides ranked second for net migration of millennials and insight into Denver’s retail landscape, the Denver consumer base and the latest trends taking over the market. 1 William H Frey analysis of American Community Survey 3 Year Data (2007-2009, 2010-2012). 4 | DENVER RETAIL INSIGHTS | The Mile High Shopping Experience CBRE RESEARCH © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 5 Homebuilders and apartment developers are striving to meet the needs of the growing population. Even so, demand has exceeded supply, and the cost of both rental apartments and single-family homes has risen Notable Employment & Income Gains significantly in recent years. The Denver market added more than 222,500 jobs leisure and hospitality and construction are some of Denver Residential Supply since the recession ended for an annual average gain the fastest-growing industries for new jobs. Figure 2: Denver Residential Supply Surging to Meet Population Growth of 44,500 jobs. Underscoring the region’s economic prowess, more than 50,000 jobs have been added Job growth boosted household income levels and each year since 2013, which well exceeds the historic retail activity in recent years – particularly high- 35,000 average. In fact, the only other consecutive period paying energy, technology and healthcare jobs. The that job growth exceeded 50,000 was 1999-2000. median household income in Denver increased 30,000 Denver’s rate of job growth has also exceeded the 15.6% to $68,274 since 2010 or 3.9% annually on U.S. every year since the most recent recession – average, which is the third-fastest rate of increase posting 3.5% gain in 2015. Unemployment in Denver among the 50 largest markets (San Francisco and 25,000 continues to hover around 3.0% - well-below the San Jose reported sharper increases). As of Q4 2014, U.S.’s 5.1% unemployment. Denver has the 14th-highest median household 20,000 income. According to projections from Moody’s Job growth supports overall retail sales activity in the Analytics, median household income will exceed 15,000 region, but there is a more direct connection to the $72,000 by year end 2016. Luxury retail in Denver has retail sector. According to the University of Colorado, historically been limited but higher-end retailers are Number of Household Permits one of every 10 jobs in Colorado occur in the retail taking note of Denver’s income growth and seeking 10,000 sector. Further, healthcare, professional and out premium locations such as Cherry Creek. business services, technology, financial activities, 5,000 Figure 4: Median Household Income Growth Across Peer Markets 0 $80 15.6% DENVER GROWTH (2010 - 2014) 18% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 $68,273 DENVER MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME forecast forecast forecast Source: Moody’s Analytics, CBRE EA, CBRE Research April 2016. Multifamily Permits Single-Family Permits $60 14% The wealth effect from rising home prices may be Figure 3: Denver Households on the Rise $40 10% encouraging Denver consumers to shop. Existing single-family home prices have increased 44% in (Thousands $) five years2. Low inventory levels of for-sale product on the market in combination with modest new 2010 - 2014 Growth (%) development activity will continue to push sale Q4 2014 Median Household Income $20 6% prices and home values. On the other hand, lease- up of the 26,000 apartment units delivered in the 2010 2015 2020 forecast past five years has directly supported household 1,107,454 1,234,478 1,362,340 goods retailers. Denver’s housing market recovery is $0 2% widespread, but the recovery is pronounced in urban Denver Austin Salt Lake City Chicago Dallas Los Angeles United States Phoenix areas – including urban suburban areas. Source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs, May 2016. Source: Moody’s Analytics, Q4 2014. Q4 2014 Median Household Income 2010-2014 Growth % 2 Colorado Comps LLC, Denver Metro Association of Realtors, REColorado, February 2016. 1,500 6 | DENVER RETAIL INSIGHTS | The Mile High Shopping Experience CBRE RESEARCH © 2016 CBRE, Inc. | 7 1,300 1,100 Thousands 900 700 500 2010 2015 2020f Source: Colorado Department of Local Affairs, May 2016.
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